Falcons TWESTOTE (Tweet, Stat, or Quote) of the Day

by James Rael on Feb 28, 2011 3:03 PM EST

Not quite ready to make one of these for #2. But articles like these make me want to scream and/or hysterically sob the football universe into submission. Or something like that.

With that in mind, yours truly spent some time perusing Matty Ice's regular-season stats (2008-2010). Here's an interesting tidbit/talking point:

35.7 attempts/game in 2010 (9th in the league)

32.2 attempts/game in 2009 (17th in the league)

27.1 attempts/game in 2008 (25th in the league)

9 interceptions/571 attempts or 1.6 percent interception percentage in 2010

14 interceptions/451 attempts or 3.1 percent interception percentage in 2009

11 interceptions/434 attempts or 2.5 percent interception percentage in 2008

Bottom line: Matty might have struggled with the increase in attempts/game during his 2009 campaign. Got over that handily in 2010 though. Granted, none of this is defense-adjusted. Still though ... I'm convinced.

Tweet Comment 22 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Nothing to do w/the above but I just saw a Mikes Falconry supply ad to the right

That is so cool. Cr@p, now it’s gone. Stupid crashing browser.

by aces666high on Feb 28, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions

David Barbour is a crack smoker.

Ryan was superior to the other primary quarterbacks in only two aspects—his touchdown to interception ratio and his ability to keep from being sacked. For a supposedly up and coming elite quarterback, Ryan certainly did not play like it in 2009.

lol

And Wilt Chamberlin sucks because he only led the league in points and rebounds.

I hate Wayne 'one eye' Gandy.

by VaderX5 on Feb 28, 2011 4:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

And Tiger Woods was only good at getting the little ball on the hole in less shots than every one else.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 28, 2011 6:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Bleacher report article was a bit harsh

But INT% is notoriously inconsistent from year to year, while YPA and adjusted YPA are pretty consistent.

So, it IS pretty important Ryan becomes a 7.5 YPA guy instead of a 6.5 YPA guy. Being at the bottom of the league in a stat many feel is the most important single QB stat certainly isn’t good.

That said, he had a 7.9 YPA in his rookie campaign, and I don’t see why he can’t get back up to those levels with some more intermediate to deep passing (and a weapon here or there)

by takeitdown on Feb 28, 2011 5:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Good point

But Ryans AYPA last year was 5.1, which is much more concerning than a YPA of 6.5. If he would have had a AYPA of 6.5 he would have tied for 3rd in the NFL with Rodgers.

by mwalex on Feb 28, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Being at the bottom of the league in a stat many feel is the most important single QB stat certainly isn’t good.

He has averaged 6.8 adjusted yards/attempt over three seasons. Roddy is all he has/has had. Mularkey doesn’t like to/hasn’t air(ed) it out. His AY/A isn’t his fault. No way around that.

Meanwhile, his career AY/A ranks 12th among active QBs, ahead of Palmer, Cutler, Cassel, E. Manning, Orton, Sanchez, and Favre.

I’m not convinced AY/A is all that important, especially when the system you play in and personnel you play with don’t lend themselves to a high AY/A.

by James Rael on Feb 28, 2011 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

You really believe that? Because I will have to disagree

Roethlisburger, Brady and Rodgers all averaged more than 6yds per attempt. Brees was 5.2 and Flacco was 5.3. Peyton Manning was 5.6. That is an indicator of stretching the field and can be tied somewhat to offensive success.

I never said it was Ryan’s fault that his AYPA was low. I just said it was a concern for me.

by mwalex on Feb 28, 2011 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

Really!

Just kidding. For serious though, I’m just lost re: how you blame him for his AY/A while simultaneously acknowledging his lack of offensive weapons/MM’s conservative play calling. It’s a very contradictory perspective IMO. But I respect it.

by James Rael on Mar 1, 2011 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

No, I don't blame Ryan for the low AY/A

I said it was a concern. I also have never really said he doesn’t have good offensive weapons. I have said that the conservative play calling limits his AY/A. Is the play calling conservative due to a lack of weapons or something inherent in MM’s psyche? Well, we might find that out this coming season.

by mwalex on Mar 1, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

I said I think he can get there

His career numbers are mostly buoyed by his rookie year. My point was his rookie year was solid, and then his last two years have been subpar in that respect. I’d think it’s fixable for that reason, and cartainly having a pass catching back and a better 2 receiver would make a difference. It’s just that it IS a number that needs to improve. It encapsulates a lot we all know is missing (lack of deep plays, lack of plays with large YAC, refusal to take shots downfield, etc.)

Most years if you sort by adjYPA, you get what seem to be the top QBs. There are aberrations (Manning was low this year with so many injuries, Brees was lower due to a double in INTs), but it correlates well.

I think that’s really the only stat step Ryan needs to take. Increase the YPA back to near rookie levels, and it’ll mean we’re making more deep plays and intermediate plays and the offense is more open.

by takeitdown on Mar 1, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Understand/respect your viewpoint

But I feel like you’re more or less arguing that he’s solely responsible for his AY/A. Mularkey’s play calling is partially responsible. To what degree is something we’ll likely have to agree to disagree about.

I’m arguing he may never have to get there in order to be great (see Favre’s career AY/A).

by James Rael on Mar 1, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

I think I'm missing something here

You said that Ryan’s numbers have been skewed because his rookie year was so much better than his last two, correct? If that’s what your saying then it’s not completely correct. Overall, Ryan’s best season so far was this past season. The only number that is statistically lower for this season than hs rookie season is the AYPA – 6.0 in 2008 and 5.1 on 2010.

by mwalex on Mar 1, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed that 2010 was his best season. No arguing that. But according to Pro Football Reference, here are his year-by-year AY/As:
2008 – 7.5
2009 – 6.0
2010 – 6.8

by James Rael on Mar 1, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Well, that's not the only gauge for success, right?

Those numbers don’t match Advanced NFL Stats.

by mwalex on Mar 1, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions

Everybody's quoting different (but similar) stats

1. Advanced NFL Stats’ Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA):

A quarterback’s Yards per Attempt (YPA) minus sack yards, adjusted by a 45-yard penalty for each interception thrown. 45 yards is chosen because it is approximately equivalent to the Expected Point (EP) value of an interception.

Ryan was tied for 15th (w/ Kitna and Cassel) at 5.1 APYA.

2. Pro Football Reference’s Adjusted Yards gained per pass Attempt (AY/A):

(Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TD – 45 * Interceptions) / (Passes Attempted)

I couldn’t find the post for the specific reasons behind the 20 yard “bonus” for TD’s (this post has a little discussion about it – back when it was set at 10 yards), but… it is what it is. Ryan was tied for 14th (w/ Peyton Manning) at 6.8 AY/A.

3. P-F-R’s Adjusted Net Yards gained per pass Attempt (ANY/A):

(Passing Yards – Sack Yards + 20 * Passing TD – 45 * Interceptions) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)

Ryan was 12th at 6.2 ANY/A. And…

4. Standard Yards per Attempt (Y/A or YPA or NFL.com just calls it “Avg” for QB’s):

Ryan was tied for 26th (w/ Sanchez and Shaun Hill) at 6.5 Y/A.

So they’re all telling a similar story, each with a particular twist: deducting Sack Yardage, applying Bonuses for TD’s and/or Penalties for INT’s, etc. If you look in the “Advanced Passing” section of Ryan’s P-F-R Player Page that James linked to, you can easily see where he is above (>100) or below (<100) average in a particular Passing category – he’s been great at avoiding Sacks, about average in Completion %, slightly above average in TD % and INT %, and below average in standard Y/A.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Mar 2, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

They can say whatever they want

If you watched him throughout his career, you know how much he’s improved and how important he is to our team’s success. The other numbers don’t matter as much as 33-15. That’s the one I care about.

by orion12 on Feb 28, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions

He's the best QB the team has ever had

I’m not going to complain.

by Mosugo on Feb 28, 2011 8:23 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Zactly.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 28, 2011 9:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Amen. Red'ed

He’s may not go down as one of the greatest QBs to ever step on a football field, but he’s the most capable QB we’ve ever had in Atlanta and he’s proven to be able to put us into playoff contention consistently.

by Leon07 on Feb 28, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

Not just yet guys...Steve Bartkowski is still limping around

If good ol Bart had had a somewhat competent upper management tending to the roster, there might be a dusty Lombardi waiting for a friend already. But alas, who knew you actually needed 5 good O lineman and not 1 or 2? Not that Falcon brass. Depth? What’s a depth? Matty has been a very good QB putting up some good #‘s. He’s getting there but he’s not there yet. But when he does…it’s gonna be fun.

by aces666high on Feb 28, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions