Panthers Do Not Franchise Charles Johnson; Could Falcons Sign Him?

by Dave Choate on Feb 23, 2011 8:01 AM EST in NFL News

Now this is a potential free agent everybody can get behind.

The Carolina Panthers finally ended their delicious waffling on whether they'd use the franchise tag on Ryan Kalil, Charles Johnson or DeAngelo Williams, electing to use it on Kalil. That means the Falcons have some kind of shot at Johnson, assuming the Panthers don't quickly move to lock him up.

Make no mistake, Johnson would be a great fit. A borderline elite pass rusher, having posted 11.5 sacks last year and 21.5 in four seasons, three spent as a part-time player. He's still only 25 would immediately prove to be an upgrade on Kroy Biermann, who is a fine player in his own right. If there's one player the Falcons ought to be chasing, it's this guy.

That said, it's going to take a fat contract to land him, and the Falcons may be leery of him being a one-year wonder. I think he's the real deal, however, and I hope the Falcons make a serious play for him. Assuming, of course, there's free agency at all.

Thoughts?

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Dream scenario.

Draft the best available WR or OT, then get CJ in FA. I’ve got no problem breaking the bank when it’s for a player who’s only 25. Plus its at a position where even if he isn’t as good as we think, he can still be effective in a rotation. That is to say, it’s safer than a WR or OT, imo.

I hate Wayne 'one eye' Gandy.

by VaderX5 on Feb 23, 2011 8:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Since the draft will precede FA this year, Falcons will draft a DE

Mark my words, though, they’ll still bring in a free agent who can start or rotate immediately. Our poor depth at DE will make us very exposed in the next two years if we don’t.

And that isn’t to say we won’t draft a DE in round 2 or 3 instead of 1. Lots of good value in this draft.

by TheAreopagite on Feb 23, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Gimme!

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by Grayson on Feb 23, 2011 8:33 AM EST reply actions

please & thank you

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 23, 2011 8:52 AM EST reply actions

i want me some CJ!!!

what what!

by GTbacker on Feb 23, 2011 8:59 AM EST reply actions

The Falcons' 2010 payroll was $32 million under the 2009 cap so they should have the money to get Johnson.

Signing Johnson also allows the Falcons to trade or release Chauncey Davis and jettison the $3 million due him in 2011 and $3.4 million in 2012.

by Bobby Falcon on Feb 23, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions

Great thoughts

There’s definitely the room. It’s just a matter of how high the bidding goes.

by Dave Choate on Feb 23, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly

Getting rid of Anderson and Davis would free up about $6.5million for next season. I imagine that would be a round about Charles Johnson’s price. There are only 16 4-3 teams in the NFL, and a few will not be in a position to bid. This guy would really help the Falcons, more than any other free agent. A consistent playmaker on a horrible defensive line this year.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Remember the Falcons also saved $3m by releasing Erik Coleman

It will be curious to see if the Falcons try to restructure JA98’s contract or play hard ball and cut bait, because a two position player that sees fifty percent of the defensive snaps is still an important cog in the wheel in spite of a $3.5m salary.

For a team that values DL versatility, I have a sense that Anderson will still be in red and black next year unless the Falcons draft a versatile DT in addition to signing Charles Johnson. If that is the case and Anderson is released, Johnson’s signing would have little impact on the team’s overall salary.

by Bobby Falcon on Feb 23, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

This is a must...

…so make it happen Comrade Dimitroff. CJ in FA, Titus Young in round 1 and O-Lineman in round 2. Oh my sweet baby Jesus. If this happens, I’m buying my season tickets the next day.

by DirtyBirdTakeover on Feb 23, 2011 9:25 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Just don't think the Panthers will let him walk

and especially not to the Falcons! All indications point to the Panthers tagging Kahlil b/c they feel strongly about their ability to get a long-term deal with Johnson.

But why listen to me? Let’s go to the source:
Impending free agent DE Charles Johnson is happy not to receive the Panthers’ franchise tag, but he’s still interested in re-signing under a long-term deal.

“Yeah, definitely,” Johnson said. “I hope I do. I’ve been here forever it seems and I don’t want to relocation.” Johnson recently spoke with new coach Ron Rivera and thinks the “change is good” in Carolina.
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41722874/ns/sports-player_news/

I guess it doesn’t hurt to dream, though.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 9:44 AM EST reply actions

He'll go where the money is

If the Falcons toss him more money and a chance at contending, chances are good he’ll take it.

by Dave Choate on Feb 23, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly.

And if you’re the Panthers GM, you’re telling me that if your talented young DE got a good contract from a division rival, you wouldn’t sweeten it a little to keep him from going? Now, if Johnson decides he wants to move back to GA regardless of $, then that’s that. I’d try and sway Johnson that way if I were TD (come back home!), b/c I wouldn’t expect Hurney to let me be the highest bidder.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

He will at least test the waters in free agency

Also, the boy is from Georgia and played for the Bulldogs.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

There have been plenty of Free Agents from UGA

that have never come back to play in the state of GA.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

I know

But it was just a point that makes it slightly more likely that he will want to play for the Falcons than another team.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

another thing about Rivera

Isn’t he a 3-4 defensive guy? If that is going to be the case…then they would look at this situation a bit differently…right?

by svene on Feb 23, 2011 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

Rivera ran both 4-3's and 3-4's during his D coordinator tours

Hes also said they’d stick to a 4-3 but things do change. Like us signing one of their players!

by aces666high on Feb 23, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

it's a good option

Ray Edwards could be another option he’s only 26 and vikings tag Greenway.

by D Fatigue on Feb 23, 2011 9:59 AM EST reply actions

When in this franchise has it ever been said that the Falcons are an attractive franchise to play for.

I promise you it is so now. If I’m CJ I’m coming to the A.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 23, 2011 10:39 AM EST via mobile reply actions

They basically have to choose him or DWilliams

In other GREAT news, saints released Shockey…sorry if im late to this.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nfcsouth&id=18601

"The only problem with invading America isn't getting past their military, but dealing with the 80 million snipers once you're in."-Joseph Stalin

by dirtybirds233 on Feb 23, 2011 10:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions

What about Cliff Avril of the Lions?

A coworker told me about this guy, and I have to say he looks good. 25 years old, 3rd round pick in 08. 33 tackles, 9 sacks, 5 passes defended, and he would probably be much cheaper than Johnson.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8869

by jgentry425 on Feb 23, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Good call on that one

I’d certainly be interested in Avril if he’s definitely a free agent.

by Dave Choate on Feb 23, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

That is a good find

If the CBA resembles the old one he’ll only be a RFA, though. Meaning we’d have to give up a pick to get him.

Surprisingly good and insightful article about him from the local Bleacher Report. Seems to be real liability against the run (Does anyone know how good Johnson is against the run, btw?), and Detroit has some surprising young depth at the position, so they could let him walk if a suitor appears.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Re: his ability vs. the run

According to Pro Football Focus, he led the league (among DEs) in defensive stops (2010-11). He also led the league in QB disruptions, which doesn’t go to his ability vs. the run. Just wanted to throw that in there to further emphasize his awesomeness. Go get him TD!

by James Rael on Feb 23, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Is this for Johnson or Avril?

Good stats, thanks.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Johnson

by James Rael on Feb 23, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

This article brings up an interesting point.

It basically says Avril should want to stay in Detroit because Suh and Vanden Bosch command so much respect that they don’t focus on him as much, which may inflate his numbers. Think about our d-line. With Abraham on the other side, and a combo of Babs, Peters, and Jerry at DT, we would have a similar situation here. Giving up at least a third-rounder may be the deal-breaker though. We’ll see.

by jgentry425 on Feb 23, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Good point about RFA

That would apply to Johnson, too

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 23, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think that it would

Because he has 4 accrued seasons as he was drafted in 2007. If the FA rules are as they were before, 4 years will be enough to hit Unrestricted free agency.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

D'oh - you're right

I was thinking it was after 4 years, not 3.

Cliff Avril = yes, possible RFA
Charles Johnson = Unrestricted

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 23, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

We should sign:

Johnson, Edwards, and Avril… Then cut Davis, Anderson, and trade Abraham for a 2nd round pick! Lol, joking guys don’t kill me

by FLA_Falcon on Feb 23, 2011 12:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions

ARE YOU CRAZY??

Didn’t want you to go away disappointed…

by FrozenFinger on Feb 23, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

I proposed trading Abe last year.

I’m a dumb @$$.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 23, 2011 7:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Statistically, this is the year to trade him.

He is scheduled for a down year

by FLA_Falcon on Feb 24, 2011 9:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Does Johnson come even close to what Peppers got last year ($83.5/$40 Guaranteed)?

Objectively measured, CJ had a better year than Peppers this year and is younger. Johnson hasn’t been doing it as long as Peppers, however.

That’s just under half the guaranteed money we gave Dunta over six years (22.5). In order to bring in Johnson, will the money have to be up there w/ Peppers or “low” around Dunta signing money? Or does he come cheaper than either? What would you offer?

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 2:18 PM EST reply actions

6 Years,45 million. 20 million guaranteed.

North of Antonio Smith’s 5year, 35 mil, 13 mil guaranteed
Slightly above the 6 years, 41 million, 20 mil guaranteed Umenyiora got in ’06 due to inflation from then.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, that was you up above

Good call on Umenyiora. I was thinking about Abe’s contract (since he’s set to receive $8M this year), which was 6y $45M in ’06.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 23, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

No, he's not getting close to $14M per year

But I think it will be more than the $6.5M that was mentioned above. Kampman and Vanden Bosch were both in the $6-$6.5M range, and were both on the wrong side of 30 (and Kampman coming off the ACL injury). A 27 year old Antonio Smith signed 2 years ago for $7M per year, and he never had more than 5.5 Sacks in a single season. If Johnson really gets a chance to test the waters Unrestricted, I would guess something like $8M per year – and to compare to Peppers and Dunta: 6 years, $48 Million, $19M guaranteed.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 23, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

We seem pretty close on our estimations

I think 7-8million a year is the right range, and the Falcons can easily afford that. Especially if we keep picking at the end of the draft and there is a rookie salary scale.

by Mosugo on Feb 23, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

I think you've both about nailed it.

I think there would probably have to be a little bit more guaranteed, but nothing too drastic. One thing though, is that they would have to do a better job negotiating the cap hit than they did w/ Dunta. Check these numbers out:

His salary cap numbers are $12 million in 2010, $6.5 million in 2011, $7.75 million in 2012, $8.75 million in 2013, $10.75 million in 2014 and $11.25 million in 2015.
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2010/03/10/contract-falcons-show-dunta-robinson-the-money/

Am I right that, if we cut Dunta in 2015 we’d take an 11.25 mil cut in the cap? I’m not sure I’d like those numbers for a young 3rd rounder getting his first huge NFL payday, but those are the risks of the NFL I guess.

by KMarch on Feb 23, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Inflations

It’s a bitch.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 23, 2011 7:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

No, I don't think that's right ($11.25M Cap hit)

I certainly could be wrong, but I don’t think Base Salaries ($9.5M in 2015) count – just the unaccounted portion of the pro-rated Signing Bonuses ($7M), and maybe some other bonuses (?).

If I’m right, his Cap hit (dead money) in 2015 would only be somewhere between $1.167M (one sixth of his $7M Signing Bonus) and $1.75M ($11.25M Cap # minus $9.5M Salary).

And if I’m right, TD was a borderline genius with the structure of Dunta’s contract (fair Guaranteed amount, but small Signing Bonus), because if for some reason he goes completely in the tank, the team could cut him as soon as after year 3, with a hit of “only” $3.5M-$4M against the 2013 Cap, while saving Arthur Blank about $25.5M in Salary payments (he would have already paid him somewhere in the $26.5M-$31.5M range, though). And if he’s still playing well… even better!

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Feb 24, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

This is the guy I want

Should absolutely be our FA signing this offseason. Sign him, then go ahead and draft Abe’s replacement so you can start grooming him. Now you’ve got starting quality and depth all along your defensive line.

I would still maybe address the WR need through FA too, but wouldn’t call that a must…. more of a “nice to have”.

Then draft an OT, LB, DB, and TE. That would make me a happy Falcons fan.

by cheshire falcon on Feb 23, 2011 4:53 PM EST reply actions

ummm...

yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.

by TurnerTheBurner on Feb 23, 2011 6:50 PM EST reply actions

I have been begging for this guy for over a year now!!

I’ve wanted him to come home so bad!! If we can sign him, I say 6 yrs 50 mil, with 25 guaranteed, and get some speed in the draft for the offense add another veteran DB or 2 and our team could be real dangerous then!!

Georgia Native, Indiana Resident, and Falcon Loving S.O.B.
Yeah, thats me.

by ATLsince1972 on Feb 23, 2011 6:54 PM EST reply actions

I'm afraid our team already is dangerous.

Muthafreakerzzzzz!!!!

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Feb 23, 2011 11:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Pow!

by aces666high on Feb 23, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Call me a skeptic

but I would still be very surprised if they did let him go. I just can’t believe they’d let the only big-time playmaker on their line just walk away. However, if they do let him sniff Free Agency, as it appears they may do, we should throw enough money at him (and maybe appeal to his hometown instincts) to make sure we get him. Make Carolina pay for not acting quickly enough.

by orion12 on Feb 23, 2011 11:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs