Their Own Worst Enemy?

by Jeanna Thomas on Dec 31, 2011 6:02 PM EST

I’m pretty sure I heard NFL Network "analyst" and total Saints homer Heath Evans proclaim that the Falcons are "their own worst enemy" the other day on Total Access. I say "pretty sure" due to the fact that every time Heath Evans is talking, I am really busy complaining to my husband that nobody should pay Heath Evans to pretend to be an analyst on television because he is not even remotely objective. I’m inclined to just disregard everything he says about the Falcons for this reason.

Regardless, Monday’s loss was painful, as were all of our losses this season. The penalties, the turnovers, the mistakes, the lack of effective offensive line protection, the inexplicably bizarre play calling, and so on--all of these things lend credibility to Heath Evans’ statement, no matter how much that irritates me. With the utterly imploded Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the schedule tomorrow, and the playoffs looming, hit the jump to take a look at some statistical trends from our wins and losses to try to discern what the deal really is with the Falcons this season.

Let’s look first at Matt Ryan’s stat lines in losses vs. wins. In losses, Ryan is 158 of 277 for 1,807 yards, 6 TDs and 7 INTs. In wins, Ryan is 184 of 280 for 2,264 yards, 21TDs and 5 INTs. That is a 57% completion rate for losses, and a 66% completion rate for wins. On average, in losses, Ryan is averaging 26 of 46 and 301 yards per game; in wins, he is averaging 20 of 31 for 253 yards per game. The disparity in his TD/INT ratios in wins vs. losses is nothing short of staggering.

In losses, Michael Turner has 355 rushing yards and 1 TD on 84 attempts. In wins, he has 813 yards and 8 TDs on 200 attempts. Turner has averaged 59 rushing yards in 14 attempts per game in losses. Jason Snelling, Jacquizz Rodgers and some other guys have teamed up to average 5 carries for about 20.5 yards on average in losses this season. In wins, Turner has averaged 22 carries for 90 yards per game, and our other rushers have accounted for an average of 11 carries for 28 yards per game.

In losses, the Falcons’ turnover ratio is -5. In wins, our turnover ratio is +11. That’s kind of a huge issue, and not a particularly surprising one. In losses, the Falcons are averaging 7.5 penalties for a loss of over 57 yards per game, compared to wins, in which the Falcons are averaging 5 penalties per game for a loss of 45 yards per game.

In losses, the Falcons' red zone efficiency is 25%, compared to 63% in wins. And in wins and losses, Matt Ryan has been sacked a total of 26 times this season.

Also of interest is the average offensive and defensive ranking of the teams we’ve played. The average defensive ranking of the teams that have beaten us this season is 22, but their average offensive ranking is 10. This is not particularly surprising either, considering that we have lost to the Saints (ranked 1st in the league in total offense) twice, and the Packers (5th in the league) once. We have also held each of the teams we have lost to this season to fewer than their average points per game with the exception of last Monday’s fiasco in the Super Dome.

Are the Falcons their own worst enemy? When they abandon the run for no good reason, make unnecessary mistakes, turn the ball over, commit excessive penalties, and don’t execute in the red zone, the Falcons are definitely their own worst enemy. This would be true of any team. It is not unique to the Falcons.

But when the Falcons prioritize the running game, it opens things up for Ryan and our receivers to be successful through the air. When the Falcons limit mistakes and execute in the red zone, issues that are fully within their ability to control, it puts the Falcons in a position to win games, and that is certainly the position we need to be in for next weekend and beyond.

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Good read Jeanna

I think…when things start to go bad for us, we deviate a little too far from what we’re good at.

Seems like you’re right, though. We do tend to beat ourselves and, when given the chance, we hardly put teams away or at least play with some vicious instinct.

Truthfully, and I’ve tried looking at this as unbiased as I can, I think that the best we have to offer is good enough to win the Super Bowl this year. I know the Saints/Packers are good, and I know there are hella teams in the AFC, but I think our overall package is good enough to win THIS YEAR.

But, of course, it requires execution and that is something we fail pretty hard at, at times, whereas Saints/Packers-type teams are ultra-disciplined. That seems to be the biggest difference to me.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 31, 2011 7:01 PM EST reply actions

I think…when things start to go bad for us, we deviate a little too far from what we’re good at.

Isn’t that what a lot of teams do?
Especially when they aren’t any good to begin with?
Or they lack confidence in their philosophy that they have to change up.

The Falcons issue is they are confused in the coaching staff. Floating around trying to find what works, and they are doing it at the expense of regular season games.

At first they think they know what they want. To be a running team. Now with the same staff you are trying to change it.
Chris Owens at first was placed at outside corner, and looked pretty good.
So what do you they do?
Put him in at Nickel, and you all remember that Green Bay Playoff game.
So guess what?
They keep him there at nickel. Thinking it will work out.

Earlier in the season they forced it to Julio.
That lead to a lost and confused offense out of rhythm.
So what do they do?
Keep forcing it to him rather work him in.

Turner may be overworked since the 376 carries in 2008.
They could use Jacquizz and Snelling, and keep Turner fresh when he is at his best.
What do they do?
Run Turner into the ground.

Falcons play zone defense and play DE’s in coverage which gets us burned.
We could play man in which some of our corners are better suited for.
So what do they do.
Keep playing zone defense against the Saints so they can pull their pants down on national television.

Do you see what I’m saying here?
Do you see a disturbing trend?
It’s almost like the coaching staff sold gullible Arthur Blank (he was fooled before by Vick) a propaganda. But in reality they don’t know what they are doing, but they think they do, and they are self destructing.
“You have to be patient.”
“This is a process”

Given you have to do that to a degree.
But at some point you have to wonder, when you’ve been Rick Rolled!

When they do things right like use #22 on that screen TD in Carolina, or mix it up on offense, or play man coverage, the abandon it.

But when it’s wrong, it’s like they are stubborn to prove themselves right. But it never happens
You can’t teach a dog to meow.

by brotherbrown on Dec 31, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

But you can teach a dog to understand what you're saying and respond to certain commands.

Dogs have the mental capacity of a two year old child. They can understand and react to basic commands. (The more you know! :P )

That being said, a dog will never meow because it is outside its physical limitations. It was not made to meow, it was made to bark. The same could be said for anything in life, be it a car, a boat, a computer, or even another person.

A computer will likely never take over the world because the computer is only as powerful as the one controlling it. Free will is something that can not be programmed into a computer because free will is something that cannot be taught, only suppressed. Computers will never be able to fully act on their own in spite of desires of thousands upon thousands of scientists to get them to do so.

Another example, a submarine cannot fly – it is beyond its physical limitations for it to do so, and it was not made to do so, but a plane can fly because it was built to fly.

Turn that into a human analogy: humans cannot breathe underwater on their own because they were not made to do so. Any attempt to make a human breathe underwater on their own OR do something outside of physical limitations (jump off the Empire State Building, land on your feet, and survive) will result in either failure or a horrendous amount of ugly experiments until either a freak accident occurs or they give up.

Turn that into a football analogy: We’re trying to do something we’re not built to do. We want an intermediate passing attack with a sprinkling of power running, but we’re not built for that. Our OL, as wonderful as their services have been over the years (except not much), is not built to handle that kind of offense.

You can’t teach a dog to sit down by saying “Sit.” and then say “Sit.” and expect it to roll over immediately afterwards.

But that’s what this offense is doing, and it’s driving me insane.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Jan 1, 2012 3:49 AM EST up reply actions

I take offense sir...

Last night I flew while underwater. O wait…that was my dreams. Sorry, good points.

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jan 1, 2012 9:07 AM EST up reply actions

YES. We've tried to be a team we're not.

We have the talent in place to challenge any team in the league. We are not using that talent effectively. Let’s all hope that changes before next weekend.

by Jeanna Thomas on Jan 1, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions

It also relies on heart and guts

which we seem to be lacking this year. Give me this year’s team with ’08’s mentalitity and we’d be unstoppable.

by drmondo667 on Jan 1, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

Holy crap we have a female blogger?!?!

But anyway that can be said about any team. If you commit penalties, dont score in the red zone, and lose the T.O. battle you should lose. The only difference is elite teams can be outgained and basically outplayed and still find a way to win. Our enemy is our coaches. They know not what they call or gameplan.

This team is a year and some mental seasoning away from and elite offense. Imagine if Matt could spread the D out and pick them apart like a Brady or Rodgers and yet still we would have a running game behind it. We could win in any weather or by any score.

by pierre02 on Dec 31, 2011 9:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions

She comes and goes.

Like the tide.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 31, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

by brotherbrown on Dec 31, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions

My New Year's Resolution is...

to actually post once a week. I’ve been swamped with work and holiday stuff, so thank goodness it’s January!

by Jeanna Thomas on Jan 1, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions

Heath looks like a giant penis.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Dec 31, 2011 9:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions

But I do have to give him props for helping abused girls.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Dec 31, 2011 9:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Funny

I’ll get in trouble for saying what I thought just now, but I laughed at it.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 31, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think I know what you thought lol

by FLA_Falcon on Dec 31, 2011 10:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Something along the lines of help burn victims

And responding with,“I have a lighter.”

If I had a nickel for everytime someone told me I should shutup, I'd probably have 5 or 6 bucks.

by pchaucer on Jan 1, 2012 3:10 AM EST up reply actions

Something like that.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Jan 1, 2012 3:40 AM EST up reply actions

My penis...

is offened by that…lol

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 31, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

Red zone efficiency, among other things are our worst enemy

In looking back at both Saints games,the Packers game, and the Texans game, our inability to score TDs in the red zone is what did us in. Everyone knows the talent is there so there is no reason (except for poor coaching and playcalling) why we shouldn’t be scoring at will. I live in Minnesota and everyone here is a Vikings or Packers fan. The question I get the most is: How are the Falcons not the highest scoring offense in the NFL? Even some of my friends (who are diehard Packer fans) agree that ATL’s WRs,RBs, and TEs are far better than theirs and they talk about how Aaron Rodgers would shatter every passing record if they had Julio, Roddy, and HD. i have to think its our play calling (i.e. MM), inability to adjust to what the other team is doing, and BVG (Oh how I despise him) that are holding us back.

by leonw92 on Dec 31, 2011 10:09 PM EST reply actions

GB's TEs smoke ours, as do NO's and NE's.

Gonzo is great, but he’s not what he used to be, and we have no #2 TE that we throw to except once a game, if that.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 31, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

the fact we have no legitimate #2 TE

also adds to our predictability on offense. the defenses know we only have 1 pass catching TE, and #2 and #3 are used only as blockers, with a pass or two thrown their way once in awhile.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Jan 1, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

you're right

had we scored TDs on every trip to NO redzone, we’d be in the game even late in the 3rd quarter.
to me, its on playcalling. the defenses figured out that all they need to do to us in the redzone is stop turner and double-team Gonzo

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Jan 1, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Bottom line is...

We aren’t as good as we should be, could be, thought we were. We haven’t beaten a good team this year, and until we do that, we won’t contend for the Lombardi. Yea, you may yell Eagles and Detroit. Well, if Vick doesnt get hurt we lose and If Quizz doesnt convert that 3rd down we probably lose in Detroit also. Something needs to change on the coaching staff, and I am sure it will after this season. I’m not quite sure which coordinator, but I’m thinking Van Gorder. I’m sure Smitty is safe, although I would love to see him get back to salivating on the sidelines rather than clapping after every play. At the beginning of the season I claimed that if we won just one playoff game, I would consider this season a success. Simply because it shows progress. Hopefully it happens. Nevertheless, 4 consecutive winning seasons and 3 playoff appearances is going in the right direction. Unfortunately for the players, the bar has been raised as a result, and they could find themselves on the chopping block soon.

I’m stumped, but gosh I love this team. It will be so worth all of the head scratching when we finally get to a point where we can compete with the best of them. We aren’t there yet…but hopefully soon.

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 1:44 AM EST via mobile reply actions

if, buts, probably

“If” our fullback was awarded the 1st down we “probably” wouldve beat da saints. “If” jj wouldve caught that hail merry we “probably” wouldve beat houston. Its alot of ifs, buts & probablys in this game. Da only thing that matters is da final score

by jgreedy on Jan 1, 2012 3:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

True enough...

But I’m sure you know what I mean. If not, what I mean is a convincing win. Not a game where 2-3 plays could have changed the game. You know, the way NO beat us last week.

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 9:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Ray who?

Also, am I the only fan utterly disappointed in Ray Edwards?! I was expecting so much more from our prized free agent acquisition.

Someone please tell me something positive about his play to make me feel better about this acquisition.

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 1:48 AM EST via mobile reply actions

impossible

anything positive would be a lie.

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 1, 2012 8:06 AM EST up reply actions

I see I'm not the only one

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 9:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I remember

I remember posting when everyone wanted Edwards that he was only “great” because Jared Allen pulled all the double teams and sometimes triple teams and I was politely reminded that that was not the case. Now that we have a full year of Edwards, has anyone changed their mind? The biggest positive I can find on him? We didnt break the bank to sign him, but we did hinder El Sid’s progress.

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jan 1, 2012 9:10 AM EST up reply actions

Good point Muuzilla

El Sid has star potential. If I’m not mistaken, ties for lead in sacks, but doesn’t even start. Hope he gets alot of PT today.

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 9:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

tied for lead in sacks?

I did not know that! And does he even play 25% of the downs?

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jan 1, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Correction...

Tied for 2nd. Both Sid and Spoon have 4. Sid has more than Ray Edwards (3). Abraham lead the team with 8.5.

And no, I do not think he plays 25% of the snaps.

by FalconsFansincePrimetime on Jan 1, 2012 11:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

somehow I feel that

TD has had little success in finding suitable defensive players – FAs. some of his free agent acquisitions – Turner and Gonzo, most notably – were huge success stories. not so much luck on defense.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Jan 1, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

just a thought...

does he decide who we get or let BVG go for who he wants?

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jan 1, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

whoever is the decision maker here

he should bear the blame.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Jan 1, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Jan 2, 2012 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

I look at the defensive playcalling as the problem

Other than Abe, we haven’t had anybody else step up. Babs should be a Monster in the Middle. Anyone think Spoon couldn’t be a terror to QBs? How was our pass rush last year? At some point you have to look at the talent level and their lack of success and conclude they aren’t being used correctly (like much of our team).
If I hear one more time that “Pressures are worth just as much as sacks” I’ll projectile vomit. Sacks give them negative yardage and a better chance at a turnover. Our pressures tend to end with a big gain.

by drmondo667 on Jan 1, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

JT! Whats up lady?

Agreed with ya on this one. We have been our own worst enemy all season. I want this team to win a playoff game, but then again, if we want changes in the coaching staff then we will have to get murdered again in the playoffs. Cuz if we win ONE playoff game, I think everyone comes back. Except for maybe MM getting a HC job somewhere else – please god let it be so. It’s been obvious to me all year that when we play smart football, establish the running game, and win the TO battle – WE WIN, and when we dont do these things we lose. But why do we do them against average teams but can’t do it against the good teams? Maybe the best 2 games we played all year against good teams was against DET and NO #1. Thats not very good for us – 2 good games? That sux! Lets just hope that our coaching staff didnt want to show anything against the saints on MNF so they could unveil some killer offense once the playoffs start. Not sure why you wouldnt want to beat your division rival, but if they show off some new offense or even some better playcalling in the playoffs then the loss to NO would be worth it, as long as we beat them in the playoffs. Cuz beating the saints in a couple of weeks would make this season the most successful yet under this coaching staff probably. Which in turn would mean they would all be back next year. Damn! Cant win for losing!!

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 1, 2012 8:14 AM EST reply actions

I'm usually all rainbows and sunshine about the Falcons, but...

I convinced myself we were holding back for the playoffs when the Saints beat us in the Dome last year, and that was apparently not true. That being said, it’s statistically improbable to beat the same team twice in three weeks in their home stadium, so the loss maybe put us in a better position to win a game that matters more…

For whatever reason, teams seem to be in love with Mike Mularkey. Keeping my fingers crossed.

by Jeanna Thomas on Jan 1, 2012 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

I just want to win.

After a whole bunch of years of losing, I just want to see the Falcons win the Super Bowl one time before I die. There have only been a few times when I even thought they had a shot. This year is one of them.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Jan 1, 2012 1:11 PM EST reply actions