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An Ode To Matt Ryan: Shall I Compare Him To A Winter Day?

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The Falcons do not have a proud history at the quarterback position.

The franchise's de facto great, Steve Bartkowski, is an amazing human being and a tough dude who gutted out a decade with the Falcons. While he's undeniably a legend in Atlanta and a man whose name will always be synonymous with the position in the Georgia Dome, his career TD/INT ratio was just 156/144 and he completed just 55.9 percent of his passes. He played through some tough times.

His closest competition has been Chris Chandler, who played five seasons in the red and black and took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in 1998. He put up a 87/56 TD/INT ratio in his time in Atlanta

After that, things have mostly dropped off a cliff. You can pull out names like Michael Vick (a talented but ultimately flawed quarterback), Bob Berry, Chris Miller and Randy Johnson. The Falcons have had wonderful players at running back, wide receiver, on the offensive line and on defense, but at quarterback it's basically Bart and maybe Chandler. In 45 years.

Until Matt Ryan came along, that is.

Star-divide

Lost in the furor over this roller coaster of a season is the quietly exceptional season Ryan has put together. As The DW noted in his award-winning FanPost, Ryan has either broken or will break most of his career marks, and he's already broken a franchise record for most passes between a single quarterback and wide receiver (Roddy White, obviously). He's accomplished that in four seasons.

But before we get to the Shakespearean comparison and the career numbers, let's take a look at 2011. If Ryan throws just 15 passes, he'll break his career high for attempts. His 61.2 completion percentage is second only to his 2010 62.5 percent. If he chucks two touchdowns against the Buccaneers, he'll break that number, and he's just .3 away from posting a career high for passer rating at 90.

Those numbers are enough to place him among the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has a legitimate case for being included among the top five or six. That's before you consider the circumstances of this season, which makes his accomplishments even more impressive.

Ryan has played this entire season behind an offensive line that could be charitably described as inconsistent. He's been sacked a career-high 26 times and has faced constant pressure. He's played parts of the year without dynamic young talent Julio Jones, and the last five weeks he's had little to no ground game to support the aerial attack. Despite that, he's posted one of the best stretches of his young career over that span, and he continues to stand tall in the pocket and make throws. Imagine what this season would look like with a different coordinator, a better line and some lucky breaks, such as Roddy White and Julio Jones not dropping at least four touchdowns between them.

Matt Ryan may never be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, but so what? At any given time in the NFL, there are perhaps two-to-five truly elite quarterbacks alive and slinging. Being one of—if not the—best quarterback outside that group is extremely meaningful. You can win Super Bowls with guys like that. Teams have won them with much less. Looking at this season through the prism of the team's hardships, Ryan seems to be getting better, not worse.

It helps that he's the most even-keeled guy on the field, and this is where that inevitable Ice thing comes in. You'll never hear Ryan misspeak in a post-game interview or press conference. You'll never see him throw teammates under the bus, or blame anyone else for his mistakes. Increasingly, you'll never see him panic in the pocket, either. He's a guy you can count on to take a loss on his shoulders, to try from minute one to minute sixty, and to hang in there even in the face of crushing pressure that would send Blaine Gabbert scrambling fifteen yards backward. He is, for lack of a better word, poised.

And that's where we return to his Falcons career. As I write this, Ice is second in yardage for the franchise, second in touchdowns, just eighth in interceptions, and first in quarterback rating. If he stays with the team another four to five seasons, he will easily shatter every mark. He will be, in short, the best passer the Falcons have ever had. You could make the case that he already is.

Could Matt Ryan be better? Yes. He sometimes hangs on to the ball too long. He sometimes makes the wrong read. He sometimes sails throws. And for those who insist upon having a signal caller who reaches the lofty Brady/Brees level....well, he's not there. But there's no reason to believe he won't continue to get better, however incrementally, as he heads into his age 27 season in 2012. There's no reason to believe he's going to suddenly drop off a cliff, and I can honestly say I'm glad that this Falcons team is in his hands with the playoffs looming.

I just thought, given the sometimes wonderful, sometimes frustrating way this season has unfolded, that we should recognize someone who is doing everything the right way. Take a moment to praise Matt Ryan today.

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go green

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Dec 29, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think a lot of Matt Ryans problems this year can be put on the Oline in front of him.
The Oline allowed way too many sacks this year and just as many hurried passes as well giving Matt a little happy feet in the pocket. The QB must trust his Oline and I fear they have let him down at times when the game was one the line. The run game has suffered as well
making the game a little easy for the defense to read us like a book. I do think Matt will reach the elite status as a QB but only time will tell if changes are not made to give him the best chance to succeed.

by W.Andrewsfan on Dec 29, 2011 9:14 AM EST reply actions  

digging deep

U can say ds WR dropped alot of passes but u also can say matty have been off target with alot of pass. It happens. Matty is an average qb right now but i see him getting alot better. Go Matty

by jgreedy on Dec 29, 2011 9:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

His numbers do not dictate average.

He’s an above average player according to the stats.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Dec 29, 2011 10:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I agree

I think that because he’s a gawky-looking guy who checks down and occasionally sails throws, he LOOKS average. But he’s demonstrably not.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

maybe ur right

But i am not into numbers. I think with a new oc and a better oline he could be top 5 qb

by jgreedy on Dec 29, 2011 1:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yes

He is above average. But if you look back at the last 22 SBs, all save two (Dilfer with great D, and Johnson, MVP that year) have been won by future hall of famers (u can argue Eli won’t make it).

In these days and times in the NFL, it is not enough to be above average. The QB has to be elite and Ryan is not, at least not now. Look for a quick exit from the playoffs.

by Whopper Dawg on Dec 30, 2011 1:40 AM EST up reply actions  

That's only half the story

Many of those “elite” QBs didn’t have elite moments in the Super Bowl. Favre had a below-average game in his win. Elway needed a great running game to finally get his ring.

Winning the big one is almost always about everything around the QB – the running game, the defense and a little bit of luck.

by The DW on Dec 30, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd have to say

the only things I don’t like about Matt’s game are his willingness to take dump offs in 3rd and long situations, and his unwillingness to take the occasional risk by throwing the ball up and giving his guys a chance to make a play. Having said that, the flipside is QBs like Eli and Romo who often get praised and cursed in the same breath.

I was one of many who thought we shouldn’t draft Ryan and I freely admit I was wrong and wouldn’t trade him for anyone else given the chance.

by jcaustic on Dec 29, 2011 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

I don't have a major problem with that

or the passes thrown long. He likes to minimize risk. Minmizing turnovers is better than hot or cold gunslinging. We’ve seen the rollercoaster that brings. I would like to get him a solid line to protect him and an OC who uses our talent better. Then, I think we’ll see him take more chances because the margin for error will change. As he gets more comfortable with JJ this will improve as well. He throws passes to TG that he won’t throw to anyone else because he’s got a good gauge of what TG can do consistently. Roddy, when he’s on is the same way, but the dropsies hurt their rapport. Since RW has stablized, he’s getting passes in spots he wasn’t earlier in the year.
Bartkowski will always hold a special place in my heart but Matt could be better than him under the right circumstances (better line: where’s this group’s Kenn or Fralic? and a better OC).

by drmondo667 on Dec 29, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Damn fine article

I especially liked the fourth paragraph after the break. Hopefully, we can find some O-line help in the looming offseason and give Matt the kind of protection he deserves, in addition to providing better run support.

I needed this, Dave, since I’m still gloomy with the hangover of the Monday night game. Thanks.

by randomaxe on Dec 29, 2011 10:35 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

One element missing from MR2's game...

…the deep ball. This is due to 3 things IMHO: Matt’s arm is neither strong nor accurate enough for those throws; MM doesn’t like risky plays; and we have not had separation type WR’s to allow these throws.

I believe Matt’s accuracy is improving. Julio and HD83 both have separation potential, so one of them can get open. What is left is MM holding them back… oh, sorry – forgot the need for an O-Line to protect Matty long enough for the WR’s to GET that separation.

I loved the throws to Burner on Monday. That will open up a lot of other things for us. Lest we forget, Matt lost his #1 FB halfway through the season, as well. This has been a challenging season in many ways for this offense.

by Mnemonic on Dec 29, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions  

I agree except

with the first point, his arm is strong enough because time and time again we’re told he overthrows his receiver. rarely is a ball under thrown by MR unless he’s outside the pocket and scrambling for his dear life and there’s really only one or two QB’s in the NFL that on the throw can throw a rocket and be accurate with it 40 yards down the field.

*In Matt I Trust*
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9455/grimessig.jpg

by nj_falconfan on Dec 29, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with your agreement XD

I think Matt hasn’t been asked to throw the ball deep for three seasons and has yet to develop his timing and accuracy. JJ missing time with injuries and HD never making it onto the field don’t exactly help either. I don’t believe arm strength is an issue and I will point to how he often overthrows JJ when his number is called on a deep passing route as the primary read. It may take a couple of seasons (and offseasons), but I fully expect to see improvement in the long ball. In the meantime, I blame timing and lengthy route development (JJ running a post as the third read) for most of the underthrows we have seen.

by jcaustic on Dec 29, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

His arm is weak.

Any qb in the league can over throw his recievers but that doesnt mean they have above average arm strength. He overthrows them because he has to float the ball higher because he can’t throw a laser the same way guys like Vick and Rodgers do. This also effects his deep ball accuracy because he’s almost lobbing his throws up versus shooting them directly in his recievers paths. Until his arm strength improves he deep balls will always be thrown inconsistently.

by dirtybird in ak on Dec 31, 2011 5:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, It's impossible to be elite without a rocket for an arm. Just look at Joe Montanna.

It’s timing, and a healthy Julio should be able to catch up with those passes.

by RamblininAlb on Dec 31, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Agree! And thanks for staying positive.

Matt is a very good QB and WILL be even better with a new OL and OC.

by Tb0n369 on Dec 29, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

So

and he’s already broken a franchise record for most passes between a single quarterback and wide receiver (Roddy White, obviously). He’s accomplished that in four seasons.

Oh yeah, this is only his fourth year, and lets not forget that he got a new QB coach during the offseason lockout.

The OLine, which was never great, lost a cornerstone during the offseason lockout and had to mesh during the season (which they’re still working on).

And the falcons got a deep threat in the form of a rookie, who has had injury issues, during the offseason lockout.

All this and he’s still set or is going to set career highs in yards (4,000+) and TDs (probably 30). But he’s just average.

"People in this country used to look at a successful person and ask what can I do to have that kind of sucess. Now a lot of people look at a successful person and ask what can I do to take what he has."
- Tommy Beam

by Adam_S on Dec 29, 2011 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

Rec'd

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

"A good QB and good playcalling can disquise Oline problems and actually make it look good."

And there’s the rub…MM has hamstrung this offense, as well as the lost preseason.

by drmondo667 on Dec 29, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

absolutely

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Dec 30, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

There is a way to measure it

The new ESPN Total QBR puts much more weight on throws made in the fourth quarter versus the first. It also puts more weight on critical third down conversions versus easy screen tosses.

If you look at Total QBR – Ryan is a top ten QB. In fact, I think he’s either 6 or 7 this year and was third all last year behind only Manning and Brady.

by The DW on Dec 29, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

He's top 6 or 7

with one of the ten worst OL’s in the league, and some of the most predictable playcalling in the league.

by falconnuke on Dec 29, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks

I knew something about QBR, and now you explained how effective it can be when used to measure quality of a QB.

Another reason to like Ryan is his personality. I do realize it’s hard to know how good of a person he is (and we really don’t need to). But on the field he’s poised but doesn’t act like an arrogant prick. He doesn’t do those title belt moves like A Rod, he doesn’t do those crazy chants like Brees or taunting like Freeman (I hope we destroy the Bucs in the meaningless game just to avenge that stupid dirty bird mockery of Freeman).

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Dec 30, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Just checked

And Ryan is now ranked 6th this season in total QBR. He is ahead of guys like Eli (who unjustly made the pro bowl) and Big Ben.

Ryan has two of the top 20 seasons for all QBs in the past four years, including one of those being in the top 10.

This just proves what Atlanta fans have already known – this is a great QB.

by The DW on Dec 31, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Can become great.

You have to remember that early on Brady’s numbers were like Ryan’s. Brady could win games but his numbers certainly weren’t like they are now. I think that as Ryan matures he will develop into a top flight qb.

by falconfanatic79 on Dec 29, 2011 1:06 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

It's funny

Brady was actually overrated in his first few years in the league. I used to argue with my friends about his ability and his arm strength.

I think he’s put that to rest.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Heard he did alot of groupies doggystyle his first few years!

and this is what made his arm stronger!

So Matt, ahhh……

Atlanta Superbowls

by Atlanta Superbowls on Dec 29, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

That's wildly inappropriate on so many levels

But I laughed.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Opp's

Heard he did alot of groupies doggystyle his first few years! and this is what made his arm stronger!

Atlanta Superbowls

by Atlanta Superbowls on Dec 29, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Good article.

I only disagree with the poise thing. He will toss it in the stands or for a two yard dump off or at a mans feet in a second. But like you said he is only a 4th year player. and we can expect improvement in this area as he becomes more certain that someone will keep him from taking a blind side lick. Oh wait we have to get that guy first. He is doing pretty good for what he has to stand behind. Mike Vick ultimately flawed? I don’t quite understand that remark.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

Uh...

Vick admitted he didn’t care about watching film. Because of this, he never progressed as a passer. The team was built around him, which means that the organization failed to recognize just how uninterested its franchise QB was in being a great leader, player, and teammate. In addition, Mike had all kinds of off-the-field and on-the-field distractions. I also seem to remember that Vick ended up losing his job as Falcons QB because he went to the federal pen. Maybe that was just a dream.

by Thrashy Thrashy on Dec 29, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh...

I think that if you’re not willing to put in the mental work to get better, the physical work any QB coach might do with you will not stick. There’s a reason why Vick is a better pocket passer these days and it’s not just because he has better coaching and more weapons. It took prison to make Vick realize that he had been slacking. That made him open to coaching and teaching when he came back to the league.

by Thrashy Thrashy on Dec 29, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I just wondered if he meant skills

or personally. There have been a lot of very successful POS’s in the NFL (and elsewhere IRL) whom I wouldn’t pee on if they were on fire. I never paid a lot of attention to off the field behavior as the men get paid to perform on the field. I understand that they “represent” the NFL but at the end of the day they are still just people prone to the same mistakes and outright screwups like the rest of us.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

except

if I’m a fan of a team (or a player) and the focus is all about what massive screwup happened off the field involving it’s star player then I’m a little pissed about having to defend the team because of 1 guy. If he then takes away a ton of $$$ that could be spent on productive players while he sits in jail and we lose the focus for our offense then he’s caused a lot of damage to the team.

by drmondo667 on Dec 29, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

For all his considerable talent, Vick has never really put it all together

He had a couple of great seasons—one with the Falcons, one with the Eagles—but he’s still essentially a scrambler with accuracy problems and an unwillingness to adapt to pocket passing.

There’s also the fact that, you know, he didn’t get to play out his contract with Atlanta.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Thanks for an answer I could understand.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, sorry, that was really vague in the post

I tend to do that.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I wasn't critiquing,

Sometimes when I get an answer to a question here it is so technical i am more confused than before i asked.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah, gotcha

It was pretty vague, either way.

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Worried early

I was worried early, even with the new QB coach. Now I chalk his problems up to the line and time to set and throw. He still sails more than I would like and hasn’t settled in completely with Julio, and could even lead his receivers in stride more. That said, with the lockout, I’m good with his fourth year now, and being a touch more conservative.

by Craig Guinn on Dec 29, 2011 2:07 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome great article best article i have honestly read all year anywhere

Thanks Dave your the man.Back in 94 when the falcons traded for Jeff George i thought with his strong arm and the pass happy run’n’shoot offense i thought George was going to be the best QB the falcons ever had but that really didn’t pan out.I was not sure about when we drafted Matt Ryan in 08 i had mixed emotions about the pick i wanted them to get that Dorsey guy who is now in KC glad they made the pick they made.I have always been a Matt Ryan fan after their 4-2 start in 08 i immediately went out and bought his premiere jersey and wear it with pride every where i go.If there is one player the falcons can’t afford to lose it is Matt Ryan he is the franchise player in my eyes.

by falconpower on Dec 29, 2011 2:18 PM EST reply actions  

Elite QBs versus Great QBs

It’s easy to compare Ryan to Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers and get frustrated, as those guys are all elite and all have a Super Bowl victory as well. However, history has shown that it doesn’t take an Elite QB to win the big one. And just because you have one doesn’t mean you’ll bring home a ring.

Most people in the 80s would have chosen Marino over Elway or Montana, when looking at sheer passing ability. In fact, Montana wasn’t drafted until the late rounds (5th or 6th). But, even though Marino could bomb it all day, it was Elway and Montana (now considered elite, but not necessarily when they first started) that took home multiple rings.

In the 90s, most people would have picked Favre and Young – and for good reason. Both were phenomenal QBs who each won a Super Bowl. However, Troy Aikman was always a great QB whose status as Elite wasn’t made until he won his first (of 3) Super Bowls.

Good write-up Dave. I think the arrow on this franchise – and on our QB – is still pointing up, even with this somewhat disappointing season. I do hope we make some changes to push over the next hump, and with the Comrade, I think we will.

by The DW on Dec 29, 2011 2:28 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Hell we did pick Favre.

See how that worked out. :)

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

He already attemped to give smitty a heart attack, it did'nt work!

if it had… he would have moved to head coach, only then would we have hierd a diff coordinator.

Be careful what u wish for!!!!

Atlanta Superbowls

by Atlanta Superbowls on Dec 29, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

You got one we can use?

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 29, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Just use that mega inflat-a-bubble in that one James Bond Movie just before impact.

You might still die, but it’s worth a shot.

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 30, 2011 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I have a good post idea for tomorrow if you want me to put something up, sir

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 29, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You have my blessing!

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by Dave Choate on Dec 29, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Matt is an above average QB

Matt coming out of BC wasnt really that elite of a prospect minus the “it” factor. I think he has shown to have elite flashes. Jax D under tucker was very underrated and he picked them apart. I wouldnt mind if TD just addressed the line in the draft. If Matt can stay upright and tighten up his deep ball he can be in that conversation.

He also has shown he can improve quickly. His deep ball has improved rapidly dince he has had more opportunity to throw them. That is where the problem is. He has an OC that wont challenge Matt outside of the no huddle which Ryan has mastered. Matt doesnt need his training wheels taken off he needs a ducatti. He is only in his 4th season most QBs dont become elite until there 5th or 6th season so he still has time. I think he is on the cusp of being elite which hopefully leads us to our 1st ring.

by pierre02 on Dec 30, 2011 1:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Agreed

Like everything in this post, hes thrown for 4000yrds this year look at the list of qbs who have done that or will do it this year not one of them is a slouch add in his 2-1 int ration makes it that much better. But people forget about the checks he makes at the line and calls his own plays only manning,brady,rodgers call their own plays, brees dosent he just suggests it he more of a product of amazing coaching by sean payton, anyways matt is a stud QB I’ll take him over anyone else

by Nedk23 on Dec 30, 2011 3:29 PM EST reply actions  

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