The Atlanta Falcons Playoff Picture After Week 15

by Dave Choate on Dec 19, 2011 8:00 AM EST in Falcons News

This was an extraordinarily good week for the Atlanta Falcons.

The Saints kept them at bay by winning over the hapless Vikings, but the rest of the NFC shook out favorably. In case you missed the action, here's what happened:

The Falcons won, running their record to 9-5.
The Giants lost, bringing them to 7-7. The Cowboys have a clear track to the division now at 8-6, but the loser of the divisional derby in the NFC East might not even make the wildcard at this rate.
The Bears continued to stink without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. They dropped to 7-7 and are now two games behind the Falcons in the wildcard. The Packers lost, which was fun, but they can't be caught at this point in the season.
The Lions beat the Raiders, but they still desperately need the Falcons to lose some games in order to snatch the #5 spot in the playoffs.

Add it all up and you've got a Falcons team that's a clear frontrunner in the wildcard race at this point in the season. They have a two game lead on the Giants and Bears, have the edge over the Lions thanks to a win against them earlier this season and the Seahawks probably aren't going to make a lot of noise.

After the jump, the breakdown.

The Saints

To get the divisional title, the Falcons are going to have to beat the Saints and pray.

The Saints will clinch the NFC South just by winning their last two games, one of which is against the Falcons at home. Even if the Falcons manage to punch them in the mouth—and yes, it's entirely possible—the Saints get a home game against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 that they don't seem particularly likely to lose.

If the Falcons can beat the Saints and Bucs and New Orleans drops their last two games, the Falcons win the south. It's just not particularly likely.

Likely Final Record: 12-4, NFC South Champions

The Giants/Cowboys

The Giants are in big trouble.

Their division rivals the Cowboys are now a game up on them. They have to take on the Jets next week and beat the Cowboys in Week 17 to win the division, and the Cowboys have a game at home against the erratic Eagles before the Giants.

The loser of this particularly derby won't have better than a 9-7 record, meaning they're not huge threats to a Falcons' playoff hopes unless the Falcons absolutely collapse. This division is going to need some very lucky breaks to produce a wildcard.

Giants LFR: 8-8
Cowboys LFR: 9-7, NFC East Champions

The Bears

The Bears are in a similar boat. The Lions have opened up a two game lead on them in the wildcard race and the Bears have to play a pissed-off Packers team next Sunday night, which seems likely to drop their record to 8-8. Without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the offense is completely feckless.

Their only hope is that they can pull off a miracle upset against the Packers and beat the Vikings in Week 17. They still won't be in control of their own destiny, so barring something amazing happening, they effectively played their way out of the race.

Bears LFR: 8-8

The Lions

This is the likeliest team to join the Falcons in the post-season. After beating Oakland on Sunday, they now have the same 9-5 record as the Falcons. With the Bears having one game against the Packers left and the Lions with a two game lead over them and the Giants, chances are they'll make the dance.

The good news for the Falcons? The Lions still have to take on the Packers in Week 17, and the Packers are the kind of team that will try to win no matter what. They also get the San Diego Chargers next week, and that's never an easy team to beat. If the Falcons go 2-0, they've got the #5 spot in the playoffs. Even if they go 1-1, they very well may.

Lions LFR: 10-6, Wild Card

The Seahawks

The Seahawks are in much the same boat as our other teams.

While they've played well as of late—they did beat the Bears!—they're still a seven loss team with one difficult matchup left on the schedule. The 49ers are no cakewalk with that defense, and they'll be pushing hard to get a first round bye in Week 16. The Seahawks also have an unpredictable Cardinals team in Week 17, one that plays well or horribly depending on the week.

It's tough to see them pulling it off this season, but they're a team to look out for in the future.

Seahawks LFR: 8-8

How do you think the race will shake out?

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Comments

I think

you have the race pegged for the most part Dave. The #6 and #4 seed are the only ones that could get shaken up a bit, but I think everything will hold up as is. It looks like we will get in as the #5 seed and that would be an accomplishment as this franchise has never made consecutive trips to the post season.

Here are my projections for the seeding in the NFC

1. Packers
2. Saints
3. 49ers
4. Cowboys
5. Atlanta
6. Detroit

Go Falcons!!!!

by VA Dirty Bird on Dec 19, 2011 8:21 AM EST reply actions

If things play oput like this I can see a very interesting 2nd round

I think Detroit can beat the 49ers and the Falcons can beat Dallas
That would be 2 div. games in the 2nd round
Pack/Lions
Saints /Falcons
That would make for a interesting round of football

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 19, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Oh yes..

by VA Dirty Bird on Dec 19, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

the jim schwartz and harbaugh thing will be rehyped.

by brotherbrown on Dec 20, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

I think the Lions win out

Particulary because the Pack will be resting their starters week 17. The Chargers are like the 2008 Saints…they look almost unstoppable one week, then get blown out the next. If they get the Hyde version, they easily win, the Jekyll version and they are still good enough to win. They finish 11-5. Then I’ve got us losing Monday night (unfortunately) then beating the bucs. So mine goes like this:
1. Packers (14-2)
2. Saints (13-3)
3. 49ers (12-4)
4. Cowboys (9-7)
5. Lions (11-5)
6. Falcons (10-6)

by dirtybirds233 on Dec 19, 2011 8:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions

as much as I hate to say this

but your projection might be the most accurate and realistic. the only change at the top I;d make is switch 49ers and the aints.
the difference between the 5 seed and the 6seed is collosal this year, and from that perspective that detroit win at raiders hurts. GB will probably rest starters after an easy win over chicago, and we might be forced to win out to secure that #5 spot.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Dec 19, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

OK I'll be the HOMER

Its not too far fetched that we split the divisional rivalry especially while Ryan and Julio/Roddy are hot.

1. Packers (14-2)
2. Saints (12-4)
3. 49ers (12-4)
4. Cowboys (9-7)
5. Falcons (11-5)
6. Detroit (10-6)

by Falcons1133 on Dec 19, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions

if the aints and niners are tied

49ers have the edge in conference games tiebreaker

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Dec 19, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sold on the Giants nor Cowboys anymore

They both tend to loose a lot this year.
That other team will have to play uphill and tends to play pretty well this time of year historically.
Look for them to possibly win out against the Cowboys and Redskins

by brotherbrown on Dec 20, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

We can't lose...

on Monday night and finish 11-5…we have to win out for that to happen. We lose on Monday and the best we do is 10-6…just saying…

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 20, 2011 2:04 AM EST up reply actions

dont count out the eagles

eagles could beat the cowboys and the giants lose to the jets. then in final week, giants beat the cowboys and eagles win their final game. 3-way tie at the top, eagles own all tie-breakers. thus eagles win the division. hope it don’t happen, but it could happen.

by williejay1 on Dec 19, 2011 9:35 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

Yeah, they'd be dangerous

Crazy to have an 8-8 team winning the NFC East, though.

by Dave Choate on Dec 19, 2011 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Cards won the NFC Champ

in 08-09 with a 9-7 record. Never can underestimate a team (esp Giants/Cowboys/Eagles).

by Falcons1133 on Dec 19, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

Remember the last time that happen kinda

the 9-7 Cardinals in 2008 vs the Falcons who were 11-5 but were the road team.

by brotherbrown on Dec 20, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

GBs not stopping early

Aaron Rodgers said in his post-game interview yesterday that, while it’s not technically up to him, he wants to finish this thing out and go 15-1. They’re not letting up anytime soon, and a pissed off pack isn’t good for anyone, particularly their next 2 opponents. Watch out for the Seahawks as a dark horse for the 6 seed, and if the Falcons can get some help from the Panthers, there’s a chance we get the 3 and play the Seahawks in the first round. I’ll take that any day.

by Eliot227 on Dec 19, 2011 10:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Say that to the 2010 Aint’s

by birdwatch on Dec 19, 2011 6:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE NEARING MAXIMUM LEVEL.

by KMarch on Dec 19, 2011 11:34 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

Perfect

by Dave Choate on Dec 19, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

shhh...too soon bro. the city of atlanta has had a tough time with playoff percentages in recent months lol

Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.

by walknbalk on Dec 19, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I feel good right now about our chances

I think we most likely get the 5 spot and would be playing the cowboys/giants, which I feel good about either matchup. However, of we were able to steal the division we would be the 3 seed most likely playing the lions, which again I like our shot. I’m expecting a playoff win this year folks cuz of the way we are playing right now, I hope to god I’m right

by jmpecker on Dec 19, 2011 12:08 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs

50 caliber

I believe the eagles will win the east and we would have to play them and hear all the Vick B.S. all over again.

by 50 CALIBER on Dec 19, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Eh it's possible

But a long shot. The eagles would have to win out, the giants go 1-1 and the cowboys lose out. The boys and iggles play each other this Sunday actually so Cowboys win, eagles are done, they lose and week 17 is going to be very interesting.

by dirtybirds233 on Dec 19, 2011 1:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

50 CALIBER

Not long enuff, the eagles destroyed the cowboys early this year and the giants have beat them too so they could easily lose both games the giants can lose to the jets and beat the boys and the eagle can easily beat the boys and skins.

by 50 CALIBER on Dec 19, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Actually...

the ONLY way the Eggles can win the division is if there is a 3 way 8-8 tie with Dallas, NYG and the Eggles (as Philly would own all the tie breakers at that point) and the odds of this are not good at all…but it is “technically” possible. This would also eliminate ALL NFC East teams from the Wildcard race as all 3 teams would end up worse than ATL and Detroit possibly could at this point.

So, Philly being in the hunt for the 6th seed (see my post below) is incorrect, it is the NFC East crown and the 4th seed or nothing for them!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 20, 2011 1:54 AM EST up reply actions

Ok, some analysis...

Here yah go:

Nobody can catch Green Bay so they are really out of this discussion even though they lost (which is good for me seeing as how I opened my big mouth with a $100 bet with “NorthStar” over the Packers vs. Falcons reaching an "undefeated season first…lol)

1st seed – This one is obvious

2nd seed – We have a shot at this one. If the Aint’s lose out the rest of the way and the Falcons win out then we take the division due to better record within the division. Now, if the 49ers lose out the remainder then we have it if we take the division. If we have identical records then the 49er’s win it if they beat Seattle (better record in Common games) but lose to Seattle and have the same record (which means they beat St. Louis) and it goes to “Strength of Victory” (due to same division records) which will be taken by the 49er’s (41.12% to 40.00%; I had to do some speculating but ours is really the best we can do. the 49er’s could drop a little but not enough to go below. We could also take it if the 49ers win tonight but drop the last 2 as this would give us the better division record. I think I got it all…so with allot of help we could get here but this will probably fall to either the Aint’s or the whiners’.

3rd seed – Probably will be held by either the Aint’s or the whiners’ unless we win the division and in that case it will be either the whiners’ or us. Now the dark horse here is Dallas, if they win out and we somehow take the division and the number 2 seed then Dallas could actually take this but ONLY if the 49ers lose out and Dallas wins out as that would give them the same records at 10-6 and Dallas beat the 49ers head to head in their matchup.

4th seed – Will be held by the NFC East champ unless the scenario for the number 3 seed happens between Dallas and the 49er’s

5th seed – We are in the diver’s seat for this one although, Detroit can take it but only if they have a better record as they lost to us. Chicago needs to win out and us to lose out (not very like with their 2 best offensive players riding the pine and one game remaining with Green Bay).

6th seed – More than likely this will be Detroit unless they win out and we lose one (not very likely with them having one game left with Green Bay). But, also in the mix here are the NYG, Seattle, Arizona and Chicago with Philly being a dark horse long shot at this point.

This upcoming week will shake allot of the nuts out of the tree and we will see where they fall. If we beat the Aint’s then allot of possibilities open for us…GO FALCONS!!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 19, 2011 1:37 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Nice work

by orion12 on Dec 19, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Well the 49ers...

just killed any NFC East from going an higher than 4th seed…and the nuts are falling…

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 20, 2011 1:41 AM EST up reply actions

To those of you who think that the Lions will win out...

If the Falcons had the chargers and Packers as their final two games how much confidence would you have in winning both of those.

Plus the Falcons have gotten hot as of late where the Lions have cooled off big time. They barely beat the Raiders a mediocre team at best.

I see Falcons getting at worst the 5 seed.

by FalconsATL on Dec 19, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I just wanna see the cover picture again

In February.

by randomaxe on Dec 19, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions

AMEN to THAT!!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 19, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Ryan has to win a playoff game this season

Or we need to start looking into his replacement.

by pierre02 on Dec 19, 2011 2:42 PM EST via mobile reply actions

???

That’s jumping the gun a bit

"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama

by BravesDawg16 on Dec 19, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

That is very premature

Why do you assume that Ryan is the issue instead of MM? Why don’t you assume that it’s easier to replace MM than Ryan? Why do you assume a different QB would play better in MM’s system than Ryan?

I love how people toss guys like Ryan, MT and RW under the bus so quickly.

by mwalex on Dec 19, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Anyone feel the same way???

I would rather face off against the Niners in San Fran, then face Romo in the Cowboys. Cowboys can be dangerous.

by Dirtybirdz90 on Dec 19, 2011 3:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions

i totally disagree

swap this

Atlanta Superbowls

by Atlanta Superbowls on Dec 19, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Neither one of them sound appealing...

except that if the play the 49ers then I will be getting me some f’ing tickets to that one!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 19, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

completely disagree

I like the match up o giants/ cowboys. Teams that scare me are packers, saints and niners none of which we should play in the first round

by jmpecker on Dec 19, 2011 4:29 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

49ers

give us a chance to revenge, oh about 25 years of West Division cellar dwellers. I also like the match up

by Humphry, Nobis, Tilliman, Zook on Dec 19, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Yea we all want a piece of the 49ers for that exact same reason

If we dont get to play them in the playoffs I hope Atlanta takes them out it would be justice in either case

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 19, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

I'll take Tony "the choke artist" Romo

Over the Niners who we have basically screwed out of victories the last 2 years. They are due to win against us and will most likely be playing a highly motivated game to do so.

by FLA_Falcon on Dec 19, 2011 6:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yep,

I’d rather play the 49ers than the Cowgirls. Overall the 49ers have a better D but the front seven for the Cowboys is tough. Ware would kill Ryan.

Dallas’s offense is MUCH better than SF’s and would give ATL fits. Between Romo’s mobility and passing skills he’d kill the secondary. With DeMurray geting hurt slows down the run game a little but it’s still good. Alex Smith still sucks, just not as bad as he has in the past.

by mwalex on Dec 19, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

And the****

by Dirtybirdz90 on Dec 19, 2011 3:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Imagine that!

A lot of years and a lot of tears. That is one description of the life of a Falcons fan prior to Mr. Blank.

I find a lot of irony in how the move from the NFC West to the new NFC South benefited both the Saints and the Falcons in such different ways. The Falcons worked like hell to restock their talent and bring in new coaching and player personnel. The result took time and we’re just now beginning to see the benefits of this new era. But in New Orleans, there was a hurricane and suddenly, another basement dweller became the darlings of an entire league. Out of nowhere, name talent began flocking to a franchise that had never known success.

I don’t hold the Saints success against them. For decades, our two teams were the brotherhood of pain and blood. We had no reason to hate one another… though the Saints fans did inaugurate a season or two of ‘I hate the Falcons’.

Were the Saints a manufactured success? It’s a worthy question in a league that is as secretive as many government agencies. For a short time, there were rumors of them relocating to San Antonio and even LA. One sports writer a few years ago said that Drew Brees going to the Saints was like Peyton Manning asking to be traded to the Detroit Lions.

If you look at the NFL’s fan base map, you notice right away the that Falcons area of interest has contracted steadily over the last decade. Some of that is due to the arrival of the Oilers to become the Titans. Some in the creation of the panthers in Charlotte and some still with the creation of the Jags in Jacksonville.

How many recall the threat we faced of having the Falcs moved to Jacksonville if the Dome wasn’t built for Mr. Smith?

I think some of the Saints popularity has been manufactured but overall, we need to win games to spread the red and Black. We could also use less purposeful negativity from the sports media. John Madden didn’t help that time when he refused to cover that Falcons game. The league sees our team as thugs based on ESPN calling our O-line the dirtiest in the league.

We’ve always gotten horrible press.

Someday… when we win a Super Bowl, I wanna sit back and light up this old cee-gar I have had stashed since SB XXXIII. It will taste just like new.

Okee dokee… I’m done venting.
Thanks to the Falcoholic and all you guys for being here :)

"There's nothing wrong with Florida that a rise in ocean level wouldn't cure."

by Redoubt on Dec 19, 2011 4:27 PM EST reply actions

Very interesting points, let me comment on a specific one (disclaimer: Saints Fan Here)

One sports writer a few years ago said that Drew Brees going to the Saints was like Peyton Manning asking to be traded to the Detroit Lions.

As you probably know, the Saints weren’t even Brees’ preferred destination after he was hurt and released by San Diego. He was bound for the Dolphins until their medical crew screwed up big time (or simply was way too cautious)

The Saints popularity is manufactured, yes, manufactured by having the number one or two rated offense pretty much every year since 2006 (and we all know that the NFL today is built on offense). It is manufactured, yes, by winning it all two years ago and by soon likely winning their 3rd NFC South division in 6 years!

Winning also attracts talent, players who want to win will join a winner! (Tony Gonzalez is a prime example with the Falcons). There is no conspiracy theory from the NFL trying to make the Saints more popular, they are winning, and winning with offense! and that, in today’s NFL is super popular!

Your last point is spot on: the more a team wins games and is a legit contender year in and year out (except of course for those Cowgals from Dallas) the more the media are going to paint them in a favorite light! That is what eventually will happen to the Falcons (of course, only until after Drew Brees retires! :-)

Gonna be a good game on Monday!

Expect more...you'll get more...and if you don't, start over!

by Stilljreming on Dec 19, 2011 5:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

REC'd

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 19, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Feel better??

Good game a comin’…

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions