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Making the Case for Matt Ryan

Dave Note: In honor of Matt Ryan breaking 4,000 yards, I re-post this for your consideration. My own take on Ice will land Thursday.

To read the message boards, you would think that Matt Ryan was both Aaron Rodgers and Bubby Brister at the same time. He's been absolutely brilliant at times, and infuriatingly inconsistent at others. However, I've heard several people question whether Ryan is the long-term answer and whether he has actually "regressed" this year.

So, I did some digging and I believe the idea that Ryan is regressing is not supported by the statistics. Join me as we look a little deeper at our franchise QB.

Star-divide

Most Falcons fans agree that the 2010 regular season was a stellar season for Ryan. He finished the season with a little over 3700 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, a measly 9 interceptions and a very respectable 91.0 passer rating. For those who like deeper statistics, ESPN's Total QBR had Ryan as the 3rd best QB of the 2010 season. In fact, only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning registered higher. Ryan was justly rewarded with his first trip to the Pro-Bowl.

You'd think with the decrying of the Falcons this year that Ryan would be having a terrible season comparatively. And to be certain, this team has been frustrating to watch - showing enormous potential and an amazing ability to struggle at least one quarter per game. But what about Ryan - how do his numbers compare?

Well, 2011 may actually be a statistically comparable season to 2010, if not surpassing it. Through 13 games, Ryan has nearly 3500 yards passing, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If these numbers continue, Ryan would finish the season with about 4300 yards passing (career high), 28 touchdowns (tying career high) and 15 interceptions. His current passer rating is 88.0, the second highest of his career and only 3 percentage points off his high in 2010.

Even more interesting, his average yards per completion is higher than 2010 and he is the #7 QB in Total QBR this year. His touchdown to interception ratio is close to 2:1, a very good number in a pass-happy league and comparable to QBs like Manning and Brady.

Additionally, if you look at 2010, our schedule gave Ryan more opportunities to shine. This season has been far more difficult, with the Falcons facing several top-10 defenses during the season. Plus, we haven't had the NFC West to beat up on in 2011. Additionally, shake up on the offensive line has put more pressure on Ryan this year. He's now in the top 10 for sacks on the season, and is one of the 3 most frequently hit QBs this year as well. And for pocket passers like Ryan, that has created a less stable pocket for him to pass out of.

Even with those additional challenges this season, Ryan has managed to still perform at a high level for the season and is on track for some career highs. His top 10 total QBR indicates that he is still a QB that makes the important throws (3rd downs and high-stress situations) when we need him to.

So, while Ryan has definitely had some rough games this year, Ryan is actually tracking better in most statistics than he did during the 2010 season, and against stiffer competition. This leads me to believe that the talk of Ryan's regression is nothing more than conjecture without statistical backing.

What do you think? Is Ryan regressing, or is he a franchise QB to continue building around?

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

Comment 56 comments  |  14 recs  | 

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Rec'd in a heartbeat

He’s had some bad moments, and a few bad games, but he is still the man. People tend to flip out over one bad game, saying he’s not a quarterback who could take us deep into the post season etc after a couple bad throws, but he hangs tough til the end of the game. Getting sick of the Matty Ice nickname, but sometimes there are moments where you just have to sit back and admire his no-huddle smarts and his 2 minute drill.

There’s no way I thought Ryan was getting 4000 yards passing this year seeing as he didn’t last year, and as you said our schedule this year is a heck of a lot tougher on him.

I doubt it will happen, unless Rodgers goes to the Super Bowl and opens up a spot, but I’d love to see Ryan as the 3rd NFC Quarterback behind Rodgers and Brees. Newton could go, beyond that I think Ryan’s numbers at least merit him a look in. Alex Smith shouldn’t go. Vick won’t. Eli might due to a large market and that huge Eli(te) campaign early on. But I seriously think Spoon, Gonz and Ryan are our only realistic shots at Pro Bowls this year.

Great article.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

Follow me on Twitter! @HarrisonN17

by Turner_The_Burner on Dec 14, 2011 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Ryam won't go

Brees and Rodgers are definites. Then Manning, Stafford, Smith and Newton will all be ahead of him, based solely on media hype.

by Mosugo on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

He’s 4th in Pro Football Focus’ QB rankings; after only Rodgers, Brees and Brady. The criticism of him isn’t really warranted in my view.

by Mosugo on Dec 14, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Ryan is quietly having a very good year

4300 yards would be a new single season franchise record. He’s already number 2 in career TD passes, will be number 2 in career yardage by the end of the year. Yeah, I know, says more about previous falcon QBs than him. Does say something about him as well.

He’s a top ten QB in every important stat except YPA, and since the Oline was fixed after the bye, he’s had a YPA of over 9. He’s also had 3 game winning/tying TD passes just dropped, half his INTs are tip drills off WRs or mis-run routes. He could easily have 1-2 more wins, 3 more TDs & 3 fewer picks and have his numbers be looking much more elite.

Man is only going to get better over the next few years. Consistency, esp. w/ the deep ball will come, as will playoff wins.

We’re watching a QB become elite before our eyes and too many people are nitpicking his game and not enjoying the ride.

by falconidae on Dec 14, 2011 2:26 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

When I can ride his ass to playoff victories.........

then I will enjoy the ride.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 27, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Great Post.

Ryan is just in his 4th year and is doing pretty good with the OL he has to work with. Other Problem this year has been Turner on first downs. Turner,so far has been worse than last year on 1st downs, this is putting Matt in 3rd and long situations and it doesn’t help when your No1 Receiver is leading the league in the drops.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Dec 14, 2011 2:31 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Very Good Post

I have been hard on Ryan.

But I need to remember that he is in his fourth year, and he is playing with turnstiles at times. Honestly, given the circumstances, he is having another fabulous year.

The only thing, IMO, that he has to work on is the deep ball. He still overthrows his guys a bit.

Other than that, he has the potential to be a great qb… he is already a very good one.

by KEScottII on Dec 14, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

Those are incredibly frustrating

especially when they happen on the same series when both guys are WIDE open. These are pro’s and pro coaches so I’m sure they have been working very hard on it and know how to work on it. I wonder if it becomes a mental thing.

by Hutch11 on Dec 15, 2011 2:39 AM EST up reply actions  

The Deep Ball

I think some of the problem Ryan has had with the deep ball is he’s throwing timing patterns on those throws – in other words, he’s not looking to hit the receiver, he’s aiming for a spot on the field. And in those cases, we’re not as accurate because our receivers often get bumped off the line and it throws the timing off.

However, when Ryan has thrown on open routes (non-timing), he’s been very good. Look at the over the shoulder pass to Quizz as an example.

To me, that speaks to scheme and predictability. The defenses we play are recognizing our timing passes and bump our receivers accordingly. That does just enough to throw the timing off.

by The DW on Dec 15, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I think you're 100% correct on this, DW

if you look at the two throws Ryan missed early on in the HOU game, both Julio and Roddy got bumped off the line (and I believe Julio got bumped a bit later in the route). Those were obviously designed plays where the timing got skewed. Same with the flea-flicker later in which Turner threw a horrible toss back to Ryan. Can’t excuse Ryan on that throw though, as it was just a bad decision.

by KMarch on Dec 15, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Ryan will be a great NFL QB

Just not there yet. He still needs to get better at the deep ball. But his no huddle offensive playcalling as well as execution is probably his greatest strengths. If our offense would go to the no huddle more, say around 50 snaps every game, then Ryan would be considered a top 5 Qb, right now. But with our OC not being able to decide how he’s going to call a game until we’re playing the damn game, it’s kinda hard for Ryan to be good at running MM gameplans on a weekly basis, but if he was allowed to run the no huddle which he does himself, then he would be performing at a much higher level, and statistically, even if this will be his highest passing yards total of his career. Ryan is a very good QB, just not a great QB, yet!

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 14, 2011 8:10 PM EST reply actions  

Also you don't mention the drops

At I think 33(or was that before last week) on the year that is 10 above the league average. With just 10 more completions his numbers( and probably our wins) look much more impressive.

by Hutch11 on Dec 15, 2011 2:33 AM EST reply actions  

another great post I read earlier,

but couldn’t comment on.

I didn’t see him as regressing either… it is definitely the O-line play that makes/breaks any QB and the mularkey man is garbage and needs to be thrown out the window of a plane.

One day....

by Kashberry on Dec 16, 2011 12:41 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Just getting that picture in my mind

MM flapping his arms on his way to earth…

by drmondo667 on Dec 28, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

great post DW

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 16, 2011 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

long balls

How many has Brady thrown this year? If I recall right, he isnt a long baller either (or was that just early in his career?)

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Dec 16, 2011 8:47 PM EST reply actions  

He has no deep threats

Let’s not compare Ryan to Brady now.

by pierre02 on Dec 19, 2011 3:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

even when he did...

did he throw a lot of long balls? The only reason I am comparing him is because Brees and Rodgers can throw long balls but I cant remember if Brady can and so I am just saying that you might not need to throw long balls to be great.

Dont cloud the issue with facts!

by muuzilla on Dec 20, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

did Brady throw deep?

you dont remember 2007? Moss,. Brady throws for 50 TD’s? That should jog your memory I hope. lol

Brady does throw a good deep ball. Just that most years he has guys like Branch as his #1 WR. Anytime he has been given a deep threat he has utilyzed it well.

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 24, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

With the exception of two games

Chicago and Houston, I really don’t think he has really played badly. The Tampa game was a fluke and he was getting killed by our Oline, which is a recurring problem (and one I hope gets addressed this off-season).

I think some of the issues can be addressed to a philosophical change in the offense and learning a new receiver (without the benefit of camp). I don’t believe Matt is a deep ball QB, he has the arm strength, just not the deep accuracy of some other QBs in this league. It’s not a shot at him, just what I’ve seen. What he lacks in deep accuracy he makes up for in understanding of the game, defenses, work ethic, etc. Julio is not a deep threat receiver, he is a big play receiver. Give him a few yards of space and look what he can do. The same with HD, maybe one day he will develop into a vertical threat, but right now he is more of a Wes Welker type. Roddy is still our best vertical threat right now because Ryan is most comfortable throwing to him.

Ryan can hit 4000 yards and 30 TDs this year. And it’s not entirely out of this world to imagine him not throwing anymore INTs. Those stats would put him up there with what the analysts like to call “Elite”.

I can be as hard on him as anyone, but that comes more from seeing what he has already done in this league, and not what I want him to do. At times he has played as well as Manning and Brady, and at other times he looks like a rookie 3rd rounder. Once he works out his consistency issues, and we address the Oline, he will be getting mentioned with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, etc.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Dec 17, 2011 12:06 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

The Deep Ball

Ryan isn’t a Rodgers or Brees when it comes to the long ball, but he’s not that bad. He’s got enough arm – he just can’t do it while on the run, which Brees and Rodgers excel at.

The deep ball is only so important. Football smarts, limiting turn-overs and leadership is what ultimately makes for a great QB. People forget, but Joe Montana had an average to below-average arm, but more than made up for it with accuracy, smarts and clutch play.

It’s too early to compare Ryan to a HOF QB, but what I’ve seen so far shows he’s a smart QB that other players admire. When Tony Gonzalez says that no one has the work ethic of Matty, it means a ton.

I think the Falcons will look even better next year, once they can address the OLine issues and Ryan has a full offseason to get his guys on the same page as him.

by The DW on Dec 17, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Comparisons

I agree that you can’t compare Ryan’s numbers to Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Manning now (not favorably, at least), but a fun thing to do is look at Ryan’s career numbers vs say Brees’ time in San Diego. It works out nicely, because even though this is Ryan’s 4th season and Brees was in San Diego for 5 years, he only played in one game as a Rookie. So in his last year with the Chargers, Brees was… a 26 year-old, 4th year Starter. He started 58 games in SD, and Ryan has started 60 games for the Falcons so far.

Ryan is slightly better than Brees in every single category except Completion Percentage (rate stats like TD%, INT%, Y/A, Sack%, etc and raw totals). Brees didn’t explode until he teamed up with Sean Payton… in his 6th year in the NFL.

Ryan absolutely, no-doubt is our long-term franchise QB.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 19, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan needs a Payton

Obviously smitty is a defensive minded coach so ryan needs a great offensive mind and more exp. to put him over the top. MM should be gone( hopefully) after this season. Maybe a turner or sumlin can come in and take over the off.

by pierre02 on Dec 19, 2011 3:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Obviously the benching hurt his numbers a little

But currently Matt Ryan is on track for;

4226 yards, 30 (well…29.7) TDs and 14 (actually 13.7) INTs.

He is currently on 3698 yards, 26 TDs, and 12 INTs.

He is currently tied with Brees, Kolb, Newton and Roethlisberger for plays of more than 40 yards, having thrown 8 (which is tied 8th in the league).

He is also tied 8th for plays of 20+ (tied with Roeth), with 48.

He has a 90.5 QB rating, good for 10th in the league.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

Follow me on Twitter! @HarrisonN17

by Turner_The_Burner on Dec 18, 2011 6:50 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks for the updated numbers

It’s pretty clear to me that Ryan is having a good season.

by The DW on Dec 18, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Similarly to Roddy

I was worried this year would be one that hurt his stocks league wide, but it’s turned into just the opposite.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

Follow me on Twitter! @HarrisonN17

by Turner_The_Burner on Dec 18, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

WHO CARES!!!

When he wins a playoff game then we can talk about this. You can’t be elite with no playoff wins so this topic really doesn’t matter. He has been impressive the last 2 games but it was against Car and Jax. The next game will tell us if ryan and this team ready for the big dance or was this just a blip on the screen.

by pierre02 on Dec 19, 2011 2:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

pierre thomas?

i will concede to you on the Carolina game, he should look like that. But the jaguars defense was supposed to be good. They raped Flacco in that monday night game.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Dec 19, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

We should have signed him

But anyway Ryan has looked promising we will see if he can keep this going thru out the final 2 games and playoffs.

by pierre02 on Dec 19, 2011 10:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

no

thought your name was referring to Pierre Thomas and you were a Saints fan

by Whyte Bler 000 on Dec 21, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Matt Ryan is THE best QB the Falcons have ever had...

I began being a Falcon fan near the end of Bartowski era, there were no Falcon fans up here in Canada at the time. Through the Miller, Hebert, Tolliver years and then the George, Chandler and MV years I could only dream of having a QB like Ryan. Although I enjoyed watching all the above mentioned QBs with varying degrees of success and failure. Matt Ryan has brought leadership, toughness, intelligence and selfless play every time he suits up for the Falcons. There is no doubt in my mind he CAN lead this team to and WIN a Superbowl for Falcon fans everywhere. Is he Manning, Rodgers, Brady or Brees? NO, and probably never will be, but he’s an very good QB in a NFL with a lot of average to bad QBS. Baltimore or the Jets with Ryan as QB would have probably won a Superbowl or 2 already ala Big Ben when he was drafted into the perfect storm. No QB wins a Superbowl on their own. Given a better OC and little stingier defense and

by Dan69 on Dec 27, 2011 4:56 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Again DW

nice article.

KMarch mentioned that Matt has done this with an OL that has regressed this season. Let’s not forget a new QB coach and an OC that might not be helping the situation.

by mwalex on Dec 27, 2011 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

then we’ll see. But this is the best 4 year stretch of QB play in the franchise history and it’s just beginning. I look forward to the next 10 years with Ryan under center win or lose.

by Dan69 on Dec 27, 2011 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

He is the Chipper Jones of the Falcons

Gonna be here a looong time

It’s crazy that 4000+ yards, 27 TDs and only 12 INTs might not be enough for a Pro Bowl selection this year

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
http://twitter.com/#!/AShirkey

by TurnerTheBurner on Dec 27, 2011 5:12 PM EST reply actions  

All this and shit for an OL!!

I think the kid has done an outstanding job for 4 years and I am looking forward to the next 4!!

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Dec 27, 2011 5:14 PM EST reply actions  

I think....

we’re all spoiled from the immediate success he had as a rookie that we expect more success right away and seem to forget he’s still a young qb. Its only his forth year and despite not winning a playoff game he is still considered a top ten qb. All of the elite qbs have at least five years. just imagine how good he will be the next couple of seasons………….

by superfalcon on Dec 27, 2011 5:20 PM EST reply actions  

I've said

it time and time again, remember he’s still a “kid” in terms of the QB position. Him and Flacco started the trend of starting a rookie QB from the get go because of their success and he’s only going to get better. Everyone wants to compare him to QB’s who’ve had time to develop and more importantly for the most part LEARNED behind great QB’s. Rodgers got to understudy Favre, Brady understudied Bledsoe, Eli had Peyton to look to. He came into Atlanta as a rookie and excelled, and he’s only going to get better. He has many intangibles such as leadership and just his intensity. Yes he has made some boneheaded plays or not but he’s going to be there and I think soon!

Peyton didn’t win a playoff game for like 7 years I believe and we see how well that turned out, and remember before last year everyone kept saying Rodgers wasn’t that good because he hasn’t won a playoff game. The time will come, and I really believe we were spoiled as fans with such a great season his rookie year that we placed HUGE expectations on his young shoulders.

*In Matt I Trust*
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9455/grimessig.jpg

by nj_falconfan on Dec 27, 2011 5:34 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I sincerely apologize

for getting the flu early Monday and not feeling well enough to post on The Falcoholic during the Saints game, I know my witty remarks would have galvanized the ATL but alas, fate had other ideas. Nevertheless, I saw many good things on film against Los Santos and the Falcons can still make a good playoff run. Good luck!

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Dec 27, 2011 6:24 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Gracias!

Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!

by Dave Choate on Dec 28, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Relax, guys.

By my math, to top Dan Marino’s record by the season’s end, all he has to do next week is throw for 994 yards.

Relax, we got this. :P

by Jake Walker on Dec 27, 2011 7:46 PM EST reply actions  

Against the Bucs

994 is a realistic possibility.

by The DW on Dec 27, 2011 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan has yet to show that he can beat you deep consistently and he has yet to show he can take command in big games against top flight opponents. This guy makes an awful lot of money and needs to add the deep ball. He gains an awful lot of yards with the underneath game. Having said all this I still believe fully that he is a true franchise QB and that he will eventually take the team to places they have never seen. Julio Jones is another Larry Fitzgerald in the making and when the Ryan Jones combo is really clicking they will put lots of points on the board,

by mrm13 on Dec 27, 2011 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

ryan also

has yet been given a line that can give him time to show you he can’t beat you deep. against the blitz he’s one of the better quarterbacks.so if that porous offensive line can give him time, we’ll see that he can push the ball down the field. Tom brady also gains most of his yards with the underneath game

*In Matt I Trust*
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9455/grimessig.jpg

by nj_falconfan on Dec 27, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

What fool is still questioning Matt Ryan?

He is currently on pace to shatter every franchise passing record. He has over 40 wins in his four seasons as a starter. He has been more consistent than any other quarterback in franchise history. I mean honestly, someone give me a reason why he shouldn’t be starting for the Falcons.

by falconfanatic79 on Dec 27, 2011 8:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

There is only one QB I would trade Matt for.

Rodgers but he’s kind of a douche so not really.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Dec 27, 2011 9:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I don't even want Rodgers.

Love that State Farm makes fun of him in their commercial. State Farm must hate him.

Follow me on Twitter! twitter.com/FalcoholicZippo

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by Caleb Rutherford on Dec 30, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

three stats say it all

This is a very good article that clearly shows the stats proving that Matt Ryan is still a very good quarterback. However, two of the stats you mentioned helps explain why the Falcons (and Ryan) are not doing as good as they should and why they are so inconsistent this year. The fact that Ryan is in the top 10 QB’s for being sack and that he is in the top 3 QB’s hit this year says it all. Even if we had Brady as our QB, we still would not be playing any better than we are now. Your quarterback can’t make great throws when he is on his back most of the game. This is somewhat of Ryan’s fault for not being very elusive, but I blame our crappy OL (both players and coaches) for this. I also think there is one more stat that needs to be brought up. That is the number of dropped passes Ryan’s receivers have this year. It has been better as of late, but I’m sure Ryan is very frustrated that when he is finally able to get a good throw off to see his receivers dropping the ball. Tough year for a very good quarterback!

by hans1588 on Dec 27, 2011 9:42 PM EST reply actions  

The guys were so surprised that he threw it to them

instead of at their feet or out of bounds that they can’ t make a play on it.

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Iron Mike Tyson.

by CaptJackSparrow on Dec 28, 2011 7:25 AM EST up reply actions  

No question he’s a franchise QB. How many teams would consider him an upgrade over their current QB situation? 25 at least?

I fear, though, with the way things are going for this team overall, the elusive playoff win might not come this year, and we’re going to hear more and more about it. With that said, the guy seems pretty unflappable, so I think he’s going to be fine, a long term winner, and will be top 3 at some point and win a ring.

by ChardeeMacDennis on Dec 28, 2011 1:45 AM EST reply actions  

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