Why That Vaunted Falcons Passing Attack Hasn't Materialized
Coming into 2011 with Julio Jones on board, it was hard not to get a little carried away. You looked at Matt Ryan developing nicely coming off of his third season and adding Jones to Roddy White, Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez and thought the Falcons could become one of the league's premier passing offenses. Even those of us who didn't jump on board with this totally at least had it in the back of our minds, I'd wager.
It hasn't changed the need for the Falcons to transition to a more pass-friendly offense over the long haul, but that narrative has gone up in smoke. Matt Ryan is having his worst start to a season ever. Roddy White has been hurt and ineffective. Jones has missed significant time.The pass protection was brutal early on.
Add those disparate pieces together and it's not hard to figure out why the Falcons haven't gone airborne. This is a team with a stubbornly conservative offensive coordinator who airs it out only sporadically in the first place. Expecting the Falcons to morph into an airshow given that and the many, many others factors
The one other factor, of course, is that Michael Turner has once again stolen our hearts and run for 120 yards on them. A brutally effective Turner—he's having the best stretch I can remember since 2008—has revived the ground game and made the need for a potent aerial attack less urgent.
Of course, the Falcons didn't sink a ton of draft picks into getting Julio Jones for him to be the #2 option in a conservative passing game. At some point—whether it be a week, a month, or even a year—the Falcons are going to focus on taking to the wing, because they have the weapons to do so and Turner won't be around forever.
Do you think the passing game gets going against the Colts, or is it on hold for at least a few weeks?
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Why pass against the Colts?
This is a hanging slider for Mularkey. Run it up the middle.
This...
Our team has actually played better WITHOUT Julio.
We’re a running team first, second, and third. As long as Turner’s rolling, I couldn’t care less if our aerial birds are grounded.
Don’t get me wrong, I wish we could use our WR more effectively, but our OC isn’t capable of smartly using our WRs (or, our shifty RBs, for that matter).
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Of course, in the games we didn't run the ball very often
We weren’t running it effectively. I feel like that still needs to be pointed out. The offensive line, which has been the problem for our passing attack at times, has been the same problem for our running game, at times. It’s getting better, though.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Jman is right
It is not a question of letting the air game “take wing”, they tried that from day one. Just is not going to work with MM. They turned back to Turner by default.
Jones is a good receiver and a good guy. Maybe one day he will be a great receiver, but you don’t mortgage your future unless you are one guy away from the SB, and it is painfully obvious that we are not.
Just like Bellichik told TD on the Jones trade. DON’T DO IT. TD did it anyway. Because he is smarter than everyone else. We’ll see. I really thing last year’s 13 – 3 record lead the organization to believe the team was better than they were, when the far better barometer was the playoff beat down by GB.
that's the problem
our ground game can win us games in regular season, but if we make it to postseason we have to air it out at some point, or we’re toast again.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Don't forget, one element of this
Is that Ryan doesn’t have the arm of Cam or Stafford and running opens up the area behind linebackers for the short stuff.
by Merle T Cornpone on Nov 4, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He can still throw a bullet.
It’s somewhat of a bullet that didn’t fire off at full power, but he can still throw a bullet. The clinic he put on against the Ravens last year is proof enough of that.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Go back to the Carolina game.
The PI on Roddy in the end zone (the one he could have caught). Matt’s pass was an absolute missile.
The offense is coming together. Better late than never.
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because the O Line
cant pass block. Lets face it last year Matt was completing short quick passes and medium passes to get the ball out in a hurry. This year they decided to change things and try to go deeper but that all depends on how the O Line plays and so far they haven’t been the best Baker is a huge liability, Hawely started a few games and looked bad getting stood up and GR looked just as bad.
Then thats coaching and FO problem
They need to fix it or get a new QB because Matt is going to get killed.
It's also on Matt Ryan
He’s only completing about half of his passes between 11-20 yards. In fact, his completion rate for all passes thrown over just TEN yards is just 42.2%. That’s not good.
For example, I just grabbed these three QBs, pretty much randomly
Alex Smith: 47.9% of passes completed over 10 yards.
Jay Cutler: 51.3% of passes completed over 10 yards.
Cam Newton: 46.9% of passes completed over 10 yards.
Matt Ryan completes a smaller % of his passes over 10 yards downfield than all three of those. He has better receivers and a better offensive line than Jay Cutler, and he definitely has more talent at wide receiver than Alex Smith and Cam Newton.
I’m not saying the entirety of our passing difficulties are on Matt Ryan, but I am saying that we can’t make excuses for him. He doesn’t throw downfield very well at all.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
by Bronn on Nov 4, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Im concerned about
Matty’s ability to catch our guys in stride on a middle to deep route. He doesnt have the strongest of arms, I know but, something has seemed off on such attempts. I havent gotten to watch the last two games, so please correct me if I am wrong. I would also like to see him take advantage of Julio’s height and throw him some jump balls.
Not so sure that's accurate
Ryan is very much like Brady, in that his best passes happen when he has a solid pocket. Against the Lions, Ryan’s deep ball to Roddy was spot on and was a very deep pass. The issue is the pocket and the amount of time he’s getting in it.
You can't compare Ryan to Brady at this point without it being very unflattering to Brady.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I think the problem there is that Ryan has a bad tendency to either
float the ball or throw off his back foot. When he stands tall in the pocket and steps into his pass, his pass looks much better and is much more accurate.
This
Matt can throw a good football, but he has to be mechanically sound to do it, much like Brady. If Matt starts running around and getting off balance, he throws one of the lamest ducks in the league. That’s why we need a better OL
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant it simply as a comparison of the type of passer he is
Certainly, Ryan is not on Brady’s level yet – but he is very much cut in the mold of a Brady or Manning: sit in the pocket and pass.
Ryan’s shines in football smarts but he wasn’t always the most accurate or strong armed QB. If he was drafted just on arm strength or interception ratio he’d never been drafted.
But I’m a believer that the problem lies with MM. Get a new offensive coordinator that can cater the offensive around Ryan strengths. If that doesn’t work only then will we shop for a new quarterback. Time for MM to go. but I’ve been saying this for 2 years now. Same as my disgust with our drafting acumen from 2009-2011.
SO
We have a weak armed inaccurate QB that is smart. Smart counts, but without accuracy and arm strength, you will have a medium level QB at best, and it looks like that is where he is settling.
Can we put this Ryan has a weak arm stuff to bed
He doesn’t. Numerous times he has overthrown receivers. This is not a good thing by any means, but it proves he doesn’t have a short arm. Also;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrhwC2Xy6tI
Ryan’s arm strength is never to be called into question again. I’m sick of reading it, that isn’t his issue.
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by Turner_The_Burner on Nov 6, 2011 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Ryan's accuracy
Ryan has always seemed to be good for 2 or 3 overthrows a game to wide open receivers 15-30 yards down the field. I don’t know what it is, but it’s like he has to get a couple of those awful passes out of the way before he can start hitting receivers in stride.
These arid overthrows have also been the cause of at least a few of his picks this year. Specifically, I can remember one against Detroit, Green Bay, and Seattle. It’s not even like the defense made a great play, the ball was just overthrown by 10 yards. Sigh.
What QB doesn't overthrow a receiver 2-3 times a game?
I’ve watched a ton of football, and every QB overthrows a few times a game. Does Matt need to work on his timing and deep ball accuracy? Absolutely, but people are putting a 31/2 year QB and expecting him to be playing at a HOF pace. We have to quit being so hypercritical. Matt is lightyears ahead of where Brees was at 31/2 years in, Rodgers was coming off the bench, and Brady, although had a couple rings, wasn’t an elite passer until 07. Manning didn’t win anything until 5 years in.
Matt has unlimited upside, the only thing holding him back is scheme. Let’s keep some perspective and show a little more patience,
well then there's the paradox
but people are putting a 31/2 year QB and expecting him to be playing at a HOF pace. We have to quit being so hypercritical. Matt is lightyears ahead of where Brees was at 31/2 years in, Rodgers was coming off the bench, and Brady
I wouldn’t say lightyears
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
And here's the thing
If he’s overthrowing guys, why are people complaining about his arm strength? On the one hand he’s overthrowing, and on the other he doesn’t have enough arm strength. I’d rather him overthrow ( and really some overthrows are because the receiver doesn’t run to catch it) than underthrow and get intercepted.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Pass routes and passing
The pass routes were better in the Lions game. The slants were particularly effective when they clicked. However Ryan has been throwing high more often than on target and that has been a buzz kill for the passing game as of late. So the Falcons are still in “po” mode for passing. Hope they get it together at some point.
Perspective
I know there’s a perception that the Saints and Packers do nothing but throw deep all game, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Both of these offenses use the short passing game – including screens – to setup their downfield shots. These teams are also very good at getting yards after the catch – something the Falcons haven’t done well the last couple of years.
We’re not going to overhaul our run-first offense overnight. Our offensive line has to be retooled to provide a better pocket. However, we do need to take the occasional shot downfield to keep the defenders from stacking 8 in the box.
Will the passing game materialize against the Colts? I’m not so sure. With Freeney and Mathis, Ryan may not have the time to bomb it 45 yards – but there’s no need for him to. I think the Falcons should do as they always have: use Turner to setup the pass.
Oh – and let Ryan run the offense: the Texas no-huddle offense is so much more effective, both for the running and passing games.
You nailed it
DW,
You just hit the nail on the head my friend… I have been looking into “high powered” offenses from past seasons to get a better idea of the discrepancies between those and our Birds. THe fact of the matter is that while these offenses do take shots down the field (so do we) a significant percentage of their 20+ yard passes were the result of catch and runs. These offenses utilize the short, mid, and deep games to take advantage of their explosive personnel and let those guys make plays.
We can do this as well, however Mularkey’s scheme does not play to it. Like he said “I dont know what explosive means”. He is under the impression that taking deep shots down field is the explosive piece our offense needed.
Go Birds
by AndrewGa1687 on Nov 4, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree...
Which is why I said what I did above.
MM doesn’t know how to call an effective short crossing pattern to save his life…Some of Julio’s best receptions have been short catches that he’s broken for large gains. Why not do this more often instead of out-routes short, dumps to TG over the middle, or ineffective bombs deep?
Thus, if the running game is working, let’s roll with it. Against Indy, I wouldn’t care if Ryan finished 11-15 for 170 yards and 1 TD if Turner and Co. finished with 200+ yards and 3 TDs…
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
EXACTLLY!!
I know there’s a perception that the Saints and Packers do nothing but throw deep all game, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Both of these offenses use the short passing game – including screens – to setup their downfield shots. These teams are also very good at getting yards after the catch – something the Falcons haven’t done well the last couple of years.
This is the style of offense we were HOPING to see come to life here in Atlanta…we have the weapons for it. We are very poor at utilizing the speed we have on offense and this STARTS with play calling.
I wanna take MM’s playbook and him to f’ing death with it!!
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Wasting your time DW
This discussion was had ad nauseum last year and it’s the same complaints and misconceptions. You are right about NO and GB. Rodgers percent Deep (>15 yards) is 18.5% and Brees’s is 16.6%. Where does Ryan sit? At 17.1 which is higher than Brees. Before people get all bent out of shape about the comparison let’s look at it another way. The % deep equates to Rodgers has thrown around 44 passes of +15 yards, 57 for Brees and 43 for Ryan. So, Matt has tossed as many deep passes as Rodgers.
Now, where does Rodgers and Brees ourperform Ryan? In AYPA (adjusted yards per attempt). Rodgers is tops in the league at 8.4 AYPA, Brees is 6th at 6.0 AYPA and Ryan sits as 26th with 4.4 AYPA which happens to be the same as Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. That is one of the biggest problems with the passing offense. ATL has essentially NO effective plays that range between 10 and 20 yards down the field. The low AYPA for Ryan hurts the running game as much as the passing game.
Currently Ryan’s AYPA is the lowest of his career and has been declining since his rookie season. Interestingly enough, ATL has the best WR corps in years, MT and TG are looking fresh and Quizz is on the team. With all of those weapons Ryan’s AYPA is his lowest ever.
Looks like some of it, or maybe most of it, is YAC.
New Orleans has 3 of the top 15 YAC receivers in the league right now. The 3 in question account for almost 900 of his passing yards in YAC alone.
The Falcons #1 YAC guy? Julio Jones, ranked 33rd overall in the league with 154 YAC. He’s #20 in the conference. And he’s missed a couple games. Roddy is 60th overall, but to his credit, DJax is like two spots above him.
GB doesn’t have many up in the YAC category, but they don’t need it because Rodgers throws it to everyone. I can’t find a stat that shows YAC on a team-by-team basis, but I’d bet GB is still above average.
Also, which site did you get your AYPA from? PFR’s formula has Brees at 7.8 and Matty at 6 AYPA. Had to do the math myself, but unless different formulas are used and/or the formula’s written wrong on their site, that’s what I got.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I used advanced NFL stats
From the Advanced NFL stats page:
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA) – A quarterback’s Yards per Attempt (YPA) minus sack yards, adjusted by a 45-yard penalty for each interception thrown
From PFR:
Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt
YAC has little to do with it actually.
(minimum 14 attepts per scheduled game to qualify as leader)
(Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TD – 45 * Interceptions) / (Passes Attempted)
PFR doesn’t subtract sack yardage.
Don't change our game plan to fit Julio...
Work Julio into our existing game plan. Short/Medium passes that are high percentage are fine. Just get that man the ball. He can make things happen after the catch that nobody else on our team can. Short slants, screens, whatever, get the ball in his hands and let him get a few yards on momentum, break the occasional tackle, and drag some defenders down the field.
"It's called Thanksgiving for a reason. If I can give and people thank me for it, that's kind of the thing that makes me feel great inside." - Dunta
Speaking of Julio
I’m really not certain he’s any better than Michael Jenkins at the moment. He’s got more potential for sure. There have been a few jaw dropping grabs and some runs where he really showed his speed and strength but mix in some really frustrating drops and stretches where he’s not really a factor. Maybe I’m just being contrary, but as of right now, the guy we cut looks the more dependable, if less flashy receiver. He certainly looked good against Carolina the other day. I don’t know, maybe Julio and Ryan just haven’t got their timing down yet
by zooker on Nov 4, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Give it time
Most wide-receivers don’t come into their own until year 3. Add to that the lack of a real off-season and I’d say that Julio has done great so far.
Whoa whoa...
I think Julio is already better. If I’m not mistaking, he was already on track to have more yardage this season than Jenkins. The problem is that we’re trying to force the ball to him. Instead he should run some of the same routes Jenkins ran and then you’ll see how the offense is suppose to look.
He was our leading receiver until he got hurt.
That’s all that needs to be said. haha
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I know right...
sometimes I think people just like to complain…
You wanna complain about something, how about MM!!
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
Jenkins never had a 100 yard game in 8 years as a Falcon
Julio has 2 in his first 5 games. Dead wrong. Jenkins can’t get separation and only has had one decent game as a Vike.
he's still a rook
Jenkins probably should have stayed to take pressure off Jenks but Julio is going to be fine
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Once again this...
Like I said, our team seems to play better without Julio, for the squad becomes the 2010 Birds (mostly). Once Julio’s out there, MM (or Ryan, but I blame the OC) feels the need to change the gameplan for Julio. Julio’s really not a downfield receiver. He’s a beast and is more effective running over people after short 7-15 yard catches…
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
As bad as the Colt's run D is supposed to be
I don’t see why they would try to air it out this game if Turner gets going early. Also JJ is coming off an injury (if he plays) and should be used sparingly anyway.
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Probably next year
It takes time to do this with any consistency.As someone noted above Ryan has to warm up.I say the team needs to warm up to this.Plus the line could use some more work.
by JT131 on Nov 4, 2011 10:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
We won't ever have a really elite passing game
until we either 1) get an elite OL or 2) use our RBs better. Ryan’s taking too many hits this year. Even Brady falters when being hit repeatedly.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
We need bigger guys on the OL and Matt not to put too much arm in his throws to Julio
The OL does have to do a better job in protecting Matt Ryan because it seems he’s sometimes it looks like he’s a little skittish in the pocket. Also, like I’ve stated before – Matt seems to sometimes over estimate the speed of his Receivers. He puts a lot of arm into the ball and sometimes over throw everyone when he throws the long ball. My advice would be to have him double pump the ball and see if that works when he throws it to Julio Jones. We need to use Jacquizz more in screens, short passes, runs to the sidelines to stretch the oppositions defense.
Yebedee yabadoo...
I think Ice isn’t the greatest QB but he’s smart with the ball so…. I think we settle in with our new passing game from here on out.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Nov 4, 2011 1:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Not enough play action on 1st or 2nd down.
Every team knows we run first. Up the gut most of the time.We hardly play action on 1st or 2nd. MM boring play book.
by Grey Rider on Nov 4, 2011 3:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Not enough success period on first down.
Regardless of whether they know we’re going to run it or not, they don’t know exactly where or how we’re going to run it. “Up the middle” can still be run many different ways.
I’ll agree we need more PA on first downs, but we need to make more manageable 3rd downs.
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 4, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just thinking about this today
And really it goes back to when we brought in our current O-line. This team was initially tailored to be run first/play action passing team. Our guys are not groomed or lack the proper natural abilities to be great pass-blockers.
Watching the games, when Ryan does a straight drop back, he never has the time to throw a proper ball. He only gets time off of play action. Whether we need to start drafting new lineman who can do both effectively, or hire a new o-line coach, I just don’t know, I don’t have that knowledge. I only see the finished product, and not what goes on in practice and the meeting rooms.
Like others have mentioned, I don’t think Julio is the deep-threat everyone makes him out to be. He is a tremendous intermediate receiver who excels at YAC. Which is exactly what we need. He also takes pressure off of Roddy and Tony G. Teams can’t double up on one or two of these guys and take out our passing game. Which comes down to scheming, which is why I think Mularkey loses his job this year regardless. He cannot handle game planning with so many talented players.
Big plays are overrated IMO. I like the time consuming, give your defense a break and get the opposing offense out of their rhythm style. Our defense relies on speed in the front seven, and will be exponentially more effective the less they have to play. We only need to light up the air when we are down by a few scores in the second half. Otherwise stick to the runs, short and intermediate passes. We’ve seen plenty of those go for big plays on this team. I think Turner has more 50+ yard plays than all our receivers combined.
2009 – Roddy White 90 yard TD off a hitch
2011 – HD 50 yard pass off a intermediate cross – and plenty more that I could name.
No its just the Offensive Lines Fault
its their fault on first down for not opening up running lanes, then getting us in long 2nd down situation and committing holding making it 2&20, that lets the defense pin their ears and go hunting… yup thats how it seems to go
by AlexanderTheFalcoholic on Nov 4, 2011 8:52 PM EDT reply actions

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