This post is the second part to Turner_The _Burner's post Best Case Scenario vs. The Colts. It can be read here.
It's that time of the week again when Turner_The_Burner and I, dunlagh, will give you a breakdown of the 3 best case and 3 worst case situations for the game. These will focus on different parts of the Falcons game where they could soar or suffer against our opponents. Obviously we’re Falcons fans, and have a bit more knowledge of the Dirty Birds than some other teams, so if you’re a visitor or just an NFL purist and we make a shocking mistake, please call us out on it! Other than that I hope you enjoy our work.
And we are back. The bye week was especially good for Falcons fans as the Saints lost an easy game, putting the Falcons only half a game behind 1st place in the NFC South. We take on the Colts this week in what seems to be a potential blow out, however the term "any given Sunday" isn't around for no reason and so you never quite know. The Colts have a couple pieces that given a chance could produce and give us a bit of grief and if the Saints can lose to the Rams, we can lose to the Colts. So don't write this game off too early. So entering week seven, we officially give you the fifth Best Case/Worst Case Scenario analysis for 2011
Flipping it to the Colts
I get to play the role of doomsayer, as I speak about 3 areas where Indi can hurt us bad. The Colts are what many people call a one man team with Peyton Manning, however they do have a couple other pieces that, though they can't win games by themselves could give us a bit of grief if they all come together. So the 3 worst case scenarios for the Falcons are - Colts break the Ice, Wayne runs Wild and Painter paints the Town.
Colts break the Ice: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two very accomplished, very deadly, very fearful pass rushers. They are perrenial Pro-Bowl players who provide constant pressure for quaterbacks and can help the rest of the defence by making the quaterback uncomfortable in the pocket. With all the change and the inconsistancy in the Colts defence over the last few years, they have been a consistent, fearful element since they joined the team. Freeney has amased 98.5 sacks since 2002 and 43 FF (4.5 sacks and 2 FF this year), Mathis has 77.5 sacks and 37 FF since 2003 (3.5 sacks and 1 FF this year). They might be playing a bit slower after almost 10 years, but they are still producing at a high rate constantly hassling QB's. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons O-line isn't fully healed up. McClure has been beat up all season and Baker is out for the next month or so (though some people might consider this an improvement). As we already lost Mike Johnson for the year, and Ovie aswell our O-line is ripe for exploitation, despite the recent return to form.
Wayne runs Wild: The Colts have an extremely deadly group of recievers at their disposal. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. All four of them are very tallented, very deadly and with the right QB under center they can cause hell to their opposition. Even now despite being 27th in the league in passing yards, Garcon has the 9th most yards as a WR and Wayne 18th. It probably helps that the Colts running game is beyond terrible. Even so, if they get a chance they can hurt us badly. Last year Wayne had 111 receptions and 1,355 yards, Garcon had 67 receptions and 784 yards (Clark and Collie were injured). However Jacob Tamme (Clarke's backup) grabbed 67 receptions and 631 yards. Which tells us that when they have a decent QB, these guys can put up some great numbers and despite the recent play they cant be given a chance to hurt us. Against the Buccaneers Pierre Garcon scored 2 TDs, gained 146 yards and only caught 2 catches. However this all rests on the arm of Curtis Painter
Painter paints the Town: Painter career is a bit tragic, after being stuck behind one of the greatest QB's ever for 2 years, he gets the chance to start only to have that taken away when your team picks up Kerry Collins from the old folks home. After Collins spent the first 3 games playing terribly, Painter gets his shot. Now playing for a team with a terrible defense and running game is tough, especially when your the QB. After 4 respectable games, his team gets eaten alive by the Saints and then he has a poor game against the Titans. Now many of the fans are calling for his head (or at least to replace him with Andrew Luck asap). Ignoring the fact that the teams success rested solely with him, I think he has done fairly well. He almost grabbed a couple wins and put together a great 1st half against the Chiefs. Now if Painter shows up, plays a full game of football and he clicks with his offensive line, then he could cause us some trouble. Painter is a lot better then he gets credit for as he is playing in the worst system in football. Now I think it's going to take more then Painter to win this game, but he will be the biggest factor. And if I was him, I would be looking to make a real big statement this week.
Unfortunately that is all we have for you this time but leave a comment or a question and we can cover any other points of interest. Please check back every week for the Best Case/Worst Case Analysis of the upcoming game. Until next time, I wish you good luck and all the best to the Falcons - this should be fun.