NFC Contenders Update 11/29

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 29, 2011 12:00 AM EST

Well gents (and hopefully a few ladies out there), we are another week down and just that much closer to the postseason. I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays, feasted on some great food, watched some great football (the MNF game notwithstanding), and began to crave playoff football. Here I am again with your weekly update on the NFC contenders and their remaining schedules. We can finally close the book on the "Dream Team" who felt defeat at the hands of Tom Brady and Wes Welker, and with seven losses, no longer represent a threat to make the postseason. The Tampa Bay Bucs and their clutch QB Josh Freeman choked in the fourth quarter and watched their playoff chances ride off into the night. The Saints beat up on the Giants on MNF and made the Giants upcoming game against the Packers a must-win IMO (yikes). The Falcons future looks bright with TJ Yates now leading the Houston Texans in our marque game next week. The Bears will also be led by an unknown against the injury-riddled Kansas City Chiefs. Who has the most favorable remaining schedule? Who has the most difficult road the rest of the way? Join me after the jump to find out.

Well, I start off with our remaining schedules of the remaining playoff contenders. With the Packers and 49ers having virtually locked up their divisions already, the following six teams are fighting for four playoff spots.

Team	Week 13		Week 14		Week 15		Week 16		Week 17
Atlanta Falcons	at Hou		at Car		vs. Jax		at NO		vs TB
Record	8	3	3	8	3	8	8	3	4	7
Result
New York Giants	vs. GB		at Dal		vs. Wash		at NYJ		vs. Dal
Record	11	0	7	4	4	7	6	5	7	4
Result
Dallas Cowboys	at Ariz		vs. NYG		at TB		vs. Phi		at NYG
Record	4	7	6	5	4	7	4	7	6	5
Result
Detroit Lions	at NO		vs Minn		at Oak		vs SD		at GB
Record	8	3	2	9	7	4	4	7	11	0
Result
Chicago Bears	vs. KC		at Den		vs Sea		at GB		at Minn
Record	4	7	6	5	4	7	11	0	2	9
Result
New Orleans Saints	vs. Det.		at Tenn.		at Minn.		vs. Atl		vs. Car
Record	7	4	6	5	2	9	7	4	3	8
Result

And now a quick look at the strength of schedule remaining.

		Wins	Losses	Percentage	Points Margin
Atlanta Falcons	Opponents Records	26	29	0.473	32
	Home SOS	7	15	0.318
	Away SOS	19	14	0.576
New York Giants	Opponents Records	35	20	0.636	-25
	Home SOS	22	11	0.667
	Away SOS	13	9	0.591
Dallas Cowboys	Opponents Records	24	31	0.436	45
	Home SOS	10	12	0.455
	Away SOS	14	19	0.424
Detroit Lions	Opponents Records	32	23	0.582	70
	Home SOS	6	16	0.273
	Away SOS	26	7	0.788
Chicago Bears	Opponents Records	27	28	0.491	56
	Home SOS	8	14	0.364
	Away SOS	19	14	0.576
New Orleans Saints	Opponents Records	25	30	0.455	110
	Home SOS	17	16	0.515
	Away SOS	8	14	0.364

If you look at the strength of schedule, the Giants have by far the most difficult remaining schedule. Games against Green Bay, the Jets, and two against Dallas spell an early ending to the Giants season (and likely an end to Tom Coughlin's time in New York). Dallas likely only needs to win one of those games to guarantee themselves the division title. The Lions face the most difficult road schedule with games remaining at New Orleans, Oakland, and Green Bay. Anyone want to see what Drew Brees does against the Lions without the threat of Suh running after him? I fret just thinking about the situation. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cowboys have the most favorable remaining record, although the Lions face the easiest home schedule (Minnesota and a struggling SD team will do that to you) and the Saints face a pretty easy road schedule (again Minnesota as well as Tennessee). So what does this all mean for us? In my opinion, I think the playoff picture is starting to get very clear. It is still early for predictions, but I'm going to say the seeding will be: 1. Green Bay 2. San Francisco 3. New Orleans 4. Dallas 5. Atlanta 6. Chicago.... Detroit and New York have such difficult schedules, I don't think they can overcome the teams waiting on them. So, I will now open the floor for discussion. Does anyone else really like the idea of playing in Jerry World or is it just me? If anyone has a chance to upset the Saints early, wouldn't it be the Bears and their defense? Can Mike Tirico call every Falcons game for the rest of the year?

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

It'll be tough on the road. Gotta put all the pieces together.This team can do it.

by YokoFalcon on Nov 29, 2011 6:55 AM EST reply actions

Agreed. Houston is no pushover, even with their injuries

Carolina at home is very winnable, but that game scares me a bit.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 29, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

every game we play scares me a bit

But can’t complain about a W

by jgreedy on Nov 30, 2011 6:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Getting more and more confident about winning out as we go

but definitely thinking playoffs at the moment, with our schedule and our record the destiny is in our hands.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

Follow me on Twitter! @HarrisonN17

by Turner_The_Burner on Nov 29, 2011 9:59 AM EST reply actions

We control our own destiny

We can make this team a first round home game by winning out, or we can set ourselves up to travel on the road if we can’t.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 29, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

if we win out

And da Saints only lose to us they still will own 1st place

by jgreedy on Nov 30, 2011 6:22 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Correct

Looks like we need the Saints to lose twice to take the Division. Tiebreaker scenarios, assuming both teams win out (except Falcons beat the Saints Week 16):

1. Head-to-Head will be 1-1
2. Division Games will be tied (both at 4-2)
3. Common Games – they’d take this because we lost to Chicago (their “extra” Loss was to STL; not a common game)

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 30, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

we need to win outright

And the saints to drop a couple to win the division. 5th seed looks about right for is. We’ll most likely see dallas in the first round. If we can win that then its probably a gb rematch. Not going to be easy getting to the sb.

by ocfalcon on Nov 29, 2011 10:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Forget the Super Bowl

I want to win a playoff game first. Once the Falcons accomplish that goal, then we’ll start creating loftier ones.

GATA!

by Jman781 on Nov 29, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

That’s why I said if we get through the first game. Dallas can be a tough game. Just hope romo throws his patented 4 picks a game. Im a little concerned about the lack of turnovers over the last few games. D line needs to pressure the qbs more or its going to be another short post season

by ocfalcon on Nov 29, 2011 12:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Wouldn’t it be SF?

by Kossart on Nov 29, 2011 4:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

No.

As of now, the Niners would be a #2 seed, with NO at #3 and Dallas at #4 (assuming they win the East). If we’re the #5 seed, we’d play Dallas at Dallas, with the #6 seed facing the Saints.

Then, assuming the Saints don’t lose to the #6 seed, they’d play the Niners and we’d head to Green Bay. The only way we don’t face Green Bay in round two is if we take the #3 seed from the Saints or if the #6 seed wins…

Obviously, there’s a lot of football left, but if the Falcons want to avoid the Packers in the 2nd round, they need to beat out Dallas and win the South.

GATA!

by Jman781 on Nov 29, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Oh so they reseed after the 1st round of playoffs then? That would most likely mean The Bears upsetting N.O. Then

by Kossart on Nov 29, 2011 6:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yes...

That’s why last year, I wanted the darn Eagles to beat the Packers. If that had happened, we would have faced the Seahawks in the second round…The Eagles would have gone to Chicago.

Instead, well, you know what happened!

GATA!

by Jman781 on Nov 30, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

First I want to say

That I though NO should have kept the score down.I consider it bad spotsmanship to run up a score.Stuff like that will bite you eventually.They did it earlier this year.
If we lose two games we will probably not make it.We have a rough game ahead in Houston.Given that they are stuck with a virgin QB doesn’t hurt much but don’t forget our ability to make a half rate QB look good.I say we win however but there will be problems.I am not looking forward to Carolina in Carolina.It could easily go bad.Cam is a good QB who can take advantage of you quick.I think we win.Jac Del Rio has ben fired at Jacksonville so that will put them into a worse tailspin. We win there.New Orleans.They have bad karma dude for running up the score.We fight them tooth and nail and lose.Again.Tampa at Atlanta.I for one want to see us destroy them.It will be hard fought with big boy running all over us.We win.I see us playing NO in the wildcard game.We win.After that I don’t know.I am a regular person with no coaching experience and all opinions are to be non binding.

by JT131 on Nov 29, 2011 10:20 AM EST via mobile reply actions

yeah i saw that too

they kept passing up big in the fourth. But I guess the Giants would have taken advantage of conservative play-calling…..who knows.

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Nov 29, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Without their QB, MS...

Houston will not be so tough, although, they have a very good defence and A. Foster.

Also, why is it bad sportsmanship to run up the score? This is America, we play to win (or we used to). This “running up the score” garbage is something we have issue with in the States and I have no idea why. It is what it is; I know I wouldn’t be all that upset if it was the Falcons who did that to the Giants (we need a new OC for that though). I wasn’t mad at GB for kicking the living crap out of us in the playoffs…I was mad at our team not showing up to play a professional football game…period!!

As always…just my thoughts and opinions on the subject…

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Nov 29, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

Its an old sportsman ship thang

Back in the old days we did not run up the score.Take it for what you want.It just seemed off base for Brees to be in there till the time ran out.I understand Ingram wanting to score and all its just a moral thing to me.If you and I played a game and you ran the score up on me I would make it my lifes mission to get you back.Payback is a mother.If Atlanta had run the score up on someone I’d be bitchin about the coaches big time.Running the score at half time is one thing but not at the end.That is just my opinion and I wouldn’t expect you to feel the same; its just how I feel. Unless we played a game.

by JT131 on Nov 29, 2011 3:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Im trying to have a discussion

Garbage is not a good way to describe my comments.I don’t call you names nor do I call your comments garbage .

by JT131 on Nov 29, 2011 3:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don't think he was saying your comment was garbage.

I think he was saying the negative connotation that comes with “running up the score” these days is garbage, that’s all.

by CubFan90 on Nov 29, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yes...

as CubFan90 stated, it was an overall assessment and not pointed at you in any way my friend. I generally stay away from personal attacks (though I am not immune, but I did not intend one here).

I just simply do not agree that it is unsportsmanlike is all; we can agree to disagree and that’s cool too.

As I said, it’s something we do here in the states. In other places and throughout history if you put yourself in a position to get crushed…you got crushed and that was that, nobody griped about it.

You should watch Japanese baseball sometime, they’ll bunt a guy into scoring position with a 20 point lead…these guys don’t mess around, it’s 100% all the time or nothing at all (yes I know this isn’t Japan, I am just using them as an example).

"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders

"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster

by Blood_Talon on Nov 30, 2011 4:35 AM EST up reply actions

I dont think we ran up the score

First lets start with our defense being taunted when we were up 10 by Jacobs the Giants didnt feel they were out of it at that point
So we go down the field and score then they score then we score and were up by 18 which I would say is a safe margin at that point
The last TD was a long run by Ingram that put us up by 25 we weren’t passing the ball we were running it

by mississippisaintsfan on Nov 29, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

49 points?

by JT131 on Nov 29, 2011 3:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

rec'd

Your team went out and played football – if you leave the game within 3 scores then any team in the NFL always has a chance to make a comeback as long as there is still 5 minutes on the clock. I find no fault with how Sean Payton calls football games. I just wish we had an OC that would do the same!

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Nov 29, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

Would still love to be NFC South Champs.....

Maybe with a little luck and a Saints loss (maybe Tenn or Detroit) or even a late loss to the Cat and Cam Newton and we run the table…. “you can do it” love that movie

by falconfever on Nov 29, 2011 10:24 AM EST reply actions

or a loss to us as well

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Nov 29, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

I like the optimism

Dave’s “optimistic” view is a ten or eleven win season. I think eleven is expected, twelve is optimistic, ten is pessimistic

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 29, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, not to be overconfident, but I see three sure wins there

Carolina’s defense is too ragged for us to fail to take advantage of, and the two home games are against Florida teams in a tailspin. I don’t think we’ll have problems with any of them, even though I’m afraid the Carolina might be higher scoring than we’ll be comfortable with. So I think we should get to 10 wins.

If we get to 10 wins, that leaves us behind the Saints for the division. So we’re fighting the Giants, Bears, and Lions for the two wild card spots. The Giants have at least two losses on their schedule, so they’re out. I could see the Bears and Lions both finishing at 10-6-I dread to sort out that three way tiebreaker-we beat the Lions, but lost to the Bears. I don’t know if 10 wins does it.

So the two games that are really, really important are the game at Houston, and the game at New Orleans. If we beat Houston this week, we should get a wild card spot. If we can beat the Saints, we’ll at least tie for the division (and again, I’m not running down the tiebreakers). If we beat both, I think the division is ours.

Key game: Houston’s D is great against the pass, only average against the run. On offense, they’ve got talent all over the freakin’ place. Arguably the best receiver in the game, two outstanding running backs, a very good tight end, a couple of other playmakers, and a very solid line. With a good QB at the helm, this game is probably a loss on our schedule. Right now, it’s winnable.

My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.

by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT

by Bronn on Nov 29, 2011 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Why am I not surprised

the ’Aints have the easiest remaining schedule?

by falconnuke on Nov 29, 2011 7:36 PM EST reply actions

Cowboys, then Saints, then us, then Bears

Only a one game difference separates each team.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 29, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

The way I see it

Unless the Saints take a tail spin dive

1. Green Bay
2. San Fran
3. NO
4. Dallas
5. Atl
6. Detroit

The teams left off, Chicago lost Cutler. I don’ t think they have a shot now, there defense is good, but the way their backup played on Sunday does not inspire confidence. The Giants have probably the toughest schedule and are epically failing out. But at the same time, next week can be a trap game for GB. I don’t think that Green Bay will lose, but I;m just saying it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.

I have confidence in our run defense after that last few games. They are going to have to try and take shots with their QB if we take an early lead. Hopefully Grimes or Heydon is back next week otherwise this could be closer than we like.

Carolina is the only other game that we should win, that scares me. We’ve been pretty bone-headed at Carolina the last few years, getting rocked in 08, having Turner go down in 09 and blowing a lead, last year we let up 200 yards of rushing. They have 3 scary running backs that could cause trouble. We need to keep our heads in that game or it could bite us in the ass.

Jacksonville is just awful, but we won’t look past them. And Tampa is in free fall mode, and we will either be playing for a division title or a wild card, so we won’t look past them.

As for New Orleans, who knows. We will need both of those CBs healthy for that game to be competitive. If we lose that we are playing for 5th or 6th seed in week 17.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Nov 29, 2011 10:16 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I agree with some folks on here, I see it this way...

1gb,2SF,3NO, 4Dal, 5 Atl, 6 Chi

I think the top 4 are wrapped up already almost, I would love to see the Aints not show up for another game like the rams game, then we could beat them in there house for the division – would be epic, and what a way to roll into the playoffs!! But I dont think NO will lose again folks, hate to say it, but they look locked in now. Except of course to us, I do think we can go into NO and beat them.

Playoff rounds wise I see us definitely being able to beat the boys in jerry world, and I think the bears could suprise the saints with that defense of theirs and hester returning punts. Who knows maybe he runs back 2 in that game and they get a pick 6 off brees and beat them 24-21 – could happen. If so then we get another favorable matchup going to SF. I can see us being able to beat them too. Then if we have to go to GB for the NFCCG, anything can happen in that one game, anything. So we could get lucky the first round and even the second round, but inevitably we will have to beat NO or GB to get to the SB, no doubt about that guys. Lets just hope we are the healthiest team in the playoffs and that the football gods are smiling on the Falcons this year.

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Nov 30, 2011 6:58 PM EST reply actions

Don't forget

The Titans game in Nashville coming up later in December. They may be playing for something, and maybe when the Saints come marching in, the weather wil be shitty, to say the least. Advantage Titans.

Evil Falcon

by falconplanet on Nov 30, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

I do think of all their remaining games, that the game @ Tennessee is most likely the one they could lose, besides to us of course. Lets hope and pray.

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 2, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

I think the Bears make the playoffs

But if Cutler isn’t their quarterback in the first round, that will be as far as they are getting.

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 30, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

same here

They will make it only because the NYG and Det will collapse and Chicago will be the team left that makes it in. Because I honestly think that Det , NY, and Chi could all end up around 9-7. And none of those three will finish better that 10-6, gauranteed!
And yes, Chicago will most likely lose their first playoff game, but I can dream right? lol

Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 2, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

I think there will be some shake ups in the standings.

No one is scared of the Bears passing game without Cutler back there so people will be stacking the box to shut down Forte and he just doesn’t do well against 8+. I can easily see the Bears dropping out of the playoff picture all together by the time they face GB again.

The head to head match ups between the Giants and Cowboys will determine who wins that division and those games will depend on which Romo shows up. And I think we can beat either of those teams based on how we are playing right now.

Honestly I see the Lions sliding into the last playoff spot and getting a first round boot. Now I also think that SF is going to drop a game or 2 and will fall to the #3 seed with NO taking #2. It isn’t that SF has a tough schedule I just think the closer they get to the playoffs the more they will start drifting mentally because they have had the division locked up for the last 5 weeks. Young teams that drift like that drop a few they shouldn’t.

So my seeds are #1 GB #2 NO #3 SF #4 DAL/NYG #5 ATL #6 DET and that means We plow through NYG/DAL and end up facing GB while SF beats DET and gets NO. At that point it will be a matter of who is healthy and who gets the lucky bounces so to speak.

by Falcons Fan in WA on Nov 30, 2011 10:25 PM EST reply actions

1. New Orleans has a recent history of some embarrassing losses late in the season, we are absolutely VERY much in the division picture until either a) they get past the lions and titans, or b) we lose to the texans this sunday

2. Teams I don’t want to play on their home turf in the playoffs: New Orleans, NYG, DET

3. Teams I think would be beatable on home turf in the playoffs: DAL, GB, CHI

San Fran i’m not sure about, haven’t seen them play enough…im inclined to put them in the second category, what with Alex Smith and all.

who would you guys rather us travel to face in January, and who do you think we’d be toast against on the road?

by throw it down the fugging field matt on Dec 1, 2011 3:11 AM EST reply actions