The Cases For Sam Baker And Will Svitek
Our own James Rael and Dave Choate debate the merits of starting Sam Baker versus Will Svitek. We hope you'll find it to be an interesting read.
James Rael
Being a Sam Baker advocate is akin to drinking Busch products in Milwaukee. Sure, it's allowed, but it's not particularly popular, and I'd recommend against doing it in public. Unpopular as it may be, here's the case for Baker:
Baker's been heavily criticized as-of-late. Actually, his critics debuted a long time ago. Long story short, he's not your typical first-round LT. If you take a LT in the first round, then you expect to net a roster fixture that can last a decade or more. But Baker was selected just shy of the second round, and if we're honest with ourselves, that's something we've lost sight of. He's struggled with pass protection, staying healthy, and - above all else - keeping it real. The best of Baker is yet to come, or so I think.
Baker's status is inextricably tied to the salary he's due. He has one year left on his rookie contract and he's due a considerable raise next year. Let me be clear though, I'd never suggest that Baker should start because he's a first-rounder/makes more than Svitek. There are some very tangible reasons he should start. First, he's a known commodity in the running game. Second, while many question his pass blocking ability, he's only liable for 3 of the 22 sacks our O-Line has allowed this year. To be fair, Ryan took some vicious hits early in the year, and many were attributable to Baker. But he was injured! And he's been injured for much of his career! The Falcons have generally made smart roster moves over the past few years. But releasing a player with some measure of talent - particularly before he's overcome an injury bug - has come back to bite this franchise before (example: our WR corps without Laurent Robinson).
It's easy to forget how good Baker was in 2008. In the third game of his career, he absolutely owned Kyle Vanden Bosch. KVB was coming off a year where he led the league in adjusted QB hits. He's demonstrated above-average agility clearing the way for Burner time-and-time-again, and I just don't think those were fluke occurrences. He's a average LT that's been injured a lot, but those injuries won't define him. Give Svitek all the credit in the world; one bad game and his fan base will shrink measurably. Bet on it.
Dave Choate
Will Svitek has played exceptionally well at left tackle. He's had, by my very informal count, a handful of holding calls and no sacks allowed over five starts. In that time, he's faced off against Dwight Freeney, Jared Allen and Kyle Vanden Bosch. None of those guys are slouches.
Perhaps it's my low expectations talking, but Svitek has impressed the hell out of me. His footwork is far more sound that it has been in past guest appearances as a starting tackle, and he has enough strength to hold his own against some pretty potent edge rushers. He also doesn't have tiny, stubby T. Rex arms, unlike certain unnamed tackles named Sam Baker.
With Svitek joining Justin Blalock, Todd McClure, Joe Hawley and Tyson Clabo, the line play has stabilized. I recognize that's partly due to Garrett Reynolds warming the bench, but it's kind of hard to deny that
The cost factor is important here, too. Going forward, the Falcons can probably lock up Svitek for a song by left tackle standards. If he can continue his production in the weeks ahead, he could be their starting tackle for the next couple of years at a bargain basement price. Baker, meanwhile, is making first-round pick scratch.
Reasons for skepticism? Primarily sample size. Svitek has been marinating on the Falcons for three seasons now and had played pretty dreadfully in relief every time he was called upon in previous years, to the point where I was ready to throw in the towel on the guy. This is a stretch of five amazing games, but it's still just five games.
So stick with what's working, I say. Vote Svitek for left tackle.
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Maybe...
if he shaved the beard he would “feel” a little lighter and you never know…sometimes change is good.
All kidding aside though…I think Svitek has more than earned the right to start and Baker should ride pine until he proves he can get it done. Or, maybe he was injured the whole time and just didn’t say something (or the coaches didn’t think it all that serious), who knows. All I can say is…“We expected more from a first rounder, especially one we traded up for to get”. But sometimes, chit just doesn’t work out the way you scripted it…
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
This
I’m in more of a “wait and see” boat after reading this, but I don’t think its a coincidence our line stabilized when Svitek came in.
I was a Baker fan, primarily because of his USC lineage but
Svitek has easily outplayed him. I’m happy that this staff has actually shaken things up! They have been so passive when it comes to that. From not bringing anybody in to push Bosher early on, tho it looks like it may have worked itself out. Still hate u Bosher!!!(don’t want him to get a big head is all), to the glacier like changes in the playcalling.
This regime is too stubborn to sometimes admit when something isn’t working and I’m glad they’ve possibly done it here. Do we toss Baker aside? Hell no. Try him out a guard. Nobody we’ve plugged in there has stood out. More like they’ve stepped back right into Matt’s face.
I want to thank James for taking on a difficult argument with aplomb
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"we must move forward not backward, upwards not forward"
And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!!"
Inspiring words from President Kang.
Svitek almost broke Matt's ankle!
I haven’t forgotten that yet!
…… just sayin’
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Yeah but...
that was just chit that happens. The lineman on Svitek just got a good push on him, at least, that’s what I saw anyway…
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
lol
I was just playing devil’s advocate – I am actually rooting for Svitek. I like the underdogs to succeed – they cost a lot less and then we can “buy” other proven players later
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
speaking of keeping cheap lineman and buying expensive free agents...
After cutting Sam Baker, how about we go out and get Peyton Hillis next year to replace Michael Turner?
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Yep, and Baker
almost allowed for Matt’s kneck, back and ass to get broken before going on IR.
by mwalex on Nov 29, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Damn good poit too...!!
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
Crap...*point too...
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
y the hell do we always say rec'd
what is that “received” ? its annoying
Atlanta Superbowls
by Atlanta Superbowls on Nov 29, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
this ^^
@Atlanta Superbowls: is that a better way to tell people you agree with them? Does that make you like me more?
I sure hope so………..
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Recommended, is what it means
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there
Is NO rec button on mobile. Can we get one? Please. I don’t have a computer so mobile is all I got
by birdwatch on Nov 30, 2011 12:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I now see how this can be annoying.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Nov 30, 2011 1:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
And...REC'D
“I am not a paid spokesperson and I recommended this recommended”
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
even if both views deserve attention
it would be simply unwise to replace something that’s working well at this point.
back in 1997 the Chiefs finished as #1 seed in the AFC. during the season their QB Grbac went down and was replaced by a little known Rich Gannon. Gannon guided them to a 13-3 record, but then Grbac recovered and started the playoff game the Chiefs eventually lost to Denver. many argued that they shouldn’t have changed their signal caller with little margin for error. then Gannon left the team and had a great career in Oakland while Grbac went into obscurity.
what I’m trying to say is that if we don’t keep Svitek starting, someone can snatch him away in the offseason….
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
by Gemini-RU on Nov 29, 2011 2:20 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Svitek has played too well...
Gents,
Fact of the matter here is that Svitek has simply played too well to bench. He has faced the top DE’s in all of football, including the sack master Jared Allen last week and shut them down. I in no way think that we should get rid of Sam Baker, BUT I do not feel that he should take Svitek’s spot after he has kicked so much ass.
I would reccommend that we attempt to utilize Baker at other spots along the line, as a sort of hybrid lineman. The guy is absolutely talented enough to play a number of position along the line and would be valuable as a plug (or starter) at tackle or either of the guard positions.
Go Birds…Houston is next.
by AndrewGa1687 on Nov 29, 2011 2:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
He doesn't have any arms.
Not sure how they missed that on the pre-draft physical.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Nov 29, 2011 2:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Why don't we just combine the two?
Footwork, strength, and t-rex arms would be taken care of, and we would only have to pay Willsam Svitbaker half the salary
Are his arms seriously short?
I’ve never really noticed but I guess it must be true considering all the t-rex comments
I'm a Svitek fan.
He’s a mean bastard. He got all up in Jerred Allens head, so much so that JA was throwing punches. If he can be that every week I’ll take it. Our O line thrives on being mean and has lacked it since Dahl left, until now.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Nov 29, 2011 2:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
They do that in Capitalist America too....
on running plays. :D
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by Caleb Rutherford on Nov 29, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I like the swagger than Svitek brings. Baker never had that edge, probably because he knew in a fight he couldn’t close enough to the other person to actually hit them.
Watch film on the eagles game...
and watch Trent Cole demoralize Baker and blow up his world play after play all night long like Lionel Ritchie…i understand Cole is one of the leagues best ends but the way he shamed Baker was disturbing and the fact that hes guarding the franchises backside is much to risky. Svitek playing lights out at the moment and before Baker got hurt he was ranked the worsed left tackle in starting in the league. (true story) Playing Baker at left tackle as of right now is a high risk low reward gamble. However I think they should give him a shot at the guard spot.
by Bigru3 on Nov 29, 2011 4:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions
svitek
Said in an interview that with every week he is feeling more comfortable with his footwork and feels he is getting better and better. Don’t mess with it
by jmpecker on Nov 29, 2011 6:39 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Svitek
Baker can’t stay healthy and Svitek has played pretty well.
In other news, it looks like Grimes may miss some time with that knee injury
I still find it mind blowing that we trotted him out there with the knee bothering him in a game we had a major advantage against their pass attack. Well, major for us.
Did we really beat up the Vikings this bad?
They lost 4 guys for the remainder of the season. Safeties Husain Abdullah (concussion) and Tyrell Johnson (hamstring), LS Cullen Loeffler (back) and Jenkins.
by Fear Me on Nov 29, 2011 8:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Looks like we did.
Probably do it to the Texans as well.
Evil Falcon
by falconplanet on Nov 29, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
The Falcons have been hurting every team we've played
I love it!!
I’d rather my team be the physical one rather than the one getting beat up week in and week out.
Now Gentlemen, get your butts up, and get back on that horse! You have no choice. The expectations are running much higher this year.
by ATLsince1972 on Nov 30, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Think about it
If Sam Baker got in there and got man-handled in the next game, we’d be pissed.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
interesting thought.
Jared Gaither just got released wouldn’t be a bad pickup for depth reasons 6 9 340.
by SquallCloud on Nov 29, 2011 9:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Svitek and the passing game
I realize RGGR had also something to do with it, but look at our pass protection performance as compiled by STATS Inc.:
We averaged a 56 grade through week 6, with only two games breaking the 50 mark: TB (28th in FO’s Adj. Sack Rate) and SEA (30th). So our only clean games came against D-Lines that play at a pretty horrible pass rush level this year, and the TB game still saw four sacks and two lost fumbles by Ryan, even though the numbers have our line having a good game.
Since Svitek took over we never dropped below 60, and average well above 80 in the pass protection index. All of the D-Lines we faced since then rank better than TB, MIN being a prime example of a Top 10 D-Line we neutralized since Svitek took over.
At FO, we are 14th in pass protection now, over the whole season. There is no way to look up the numbers through week 6, but I think at that point none of us would have said that our line was league-average. Taken into account that we had those bad first six games, our line play since then must have been stellar to lift us above league average.
Other stats support a big improvement in our passing game too, if we split the season after Week 6. Ryan’s avrage passer rating went up by 17 points (82.2 with Baker, 98.2 with Svitek), his completion percentage went up by two percantage points, and his YPA went up from 6.7 with Baker to 8.1 with Svitek. TD% rose, INT% dropped. AY/A went up from 6.2 to 8.2. (If he would average that 8.2 over the season, he would place third in the league behind Brady and Rodgers among active QBs.)
We average 2,5 Sacks/Game with Baker, 1,4 with Svitek, that’s more than one sack less per game.
Now, again, not all of that is Svitek. Ryan could have just developed a rhythm with his WRs, Roddy upped his play, Mularkey maybe put some TE- and RB-help into the protection or shortened some routes, and there is still the RGGR-factor. We also faced easier pass defenses since Svitek took over (12.8 DVOA average over games 1-6 vs. 15.8 since then) which also explains some of our general pass play improvement. But the average D-Lines have been tougher (5.85 average Adjusted Sack Rate until Week 6 vs. 6.36 since Week 7), so it is still pretty evident that these are two very different passing offenses and pass protection units we are talking about, pre week 7 and post. And some chunk of that improvement definitely falls on better LT play.
Long story short: Keep Will Sviczech out there. He helps this team be better.
by wiesengrund on Nov 30, 2011 6:19 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
excellent post(s) wiesengrund, Rec'd
Baker allowed 3 Sacks (plus 2 Holds) in 6 Starts. Reynolds allowed 3 Sacks in 7 Starts.
I don’t know the Week 6 numbers, but I found an old comment where I listed out some of the numbers through Week 8 (just the ranks, though… not the actual percentages):
Pass Protection – ASR (21st)… now 14th
Passing Offense DVOA (14th)… now 8th
I agree with pretty much everybody here – unless somebody has a complete meltdown (Hawley came close last week), they should keep the same 5 guys starting the rest of the season.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 30, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yep
I’d say so too.
Also, PFF wrote this on Svitek before the Vikings game:
Svitek has been a pleasant surprise in particular. Sure he’s not got the greatest upside in the world and the Falcons are giving up help, but in working with his limitations the former Standford man has given up just four hits and eight hurries in 174 pass blocks (a pressure every 14.5 snaps in protection) compared to Sam Baker who gave up four sacks, seven hits and 17 pressures in 257 pass blocks (a pressure for every 9.2 snaps in protection).
They have Baker here with four sacks, not three, which is probably due to different game charters assigning some sacks to coverage and some to pass rush, but the overall picture doesn’t change much and certainly improved after what Svitek did to Allen.
by wiesengrund on Nov 30, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
See...
this is why I let you guys talk the advanced statistics for football, I just don’t have them down yet. Now baseball is a different story, I can “BABIP, ERA, PERA, OPS and DIPS” you all day long…lol
Excellent job guys…good stuff!!
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
"To win, I'd run over Joe's mom too." - Matt Millen, formerly of the Raiders
"We now have exactly the same situation as we had at the start of the race, only exactly the opposite" - Murray Walker, Sportscaster
by Blood_Talon on Nov 30, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I didn't change my tune until AFTER the goose egg (Sacks+Hits) to Jared Allen
Now, I’m pretty much all-in with Svitek (at least for 2011).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Svitek in the running game
All of the above is of course just for the passing game, but our run game is maybe a differnt story. Our line ranks pretty ba d in run blocking this season, as does our whole run offense. Turner averages more Yards per game since Svitk took over, but less Yards per carry and less TDs. Our only strength in run blocking is runs to the left (9th in the league in Adjusted Line Yards; all other directions ar 22nd or worse), but since we cannot split those numbers at week 6, we don’t know how much of that is Baker and how much is Svitek.
Has anyone kept a close eye on Svitek’s run blocking? Ho does he pass the eye ball test compared to Baker there?
by wiesengrund on Nov 30, 2011 6:25 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Not sure of the breakdown...
But to me, the main job of a LT is to prorect the blindside of the QB. If we are running to the left side, we can always put a TE over there to help. Maybe Turners YPA is down b/c over the last 6 games, when we have a lead, we come out of the no huddle, and become very predictable by running up the middle during the 3 qrt.
by Magellan55 on Nov 30, 2011 8:11 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd say based on the eyeball
that Svitek is not quite the run-blocker that Baker is. However, as you pointed out in your post above, that could be for a lot of reasons (not gelling with Blalock for instance). Nice work on both posts, wiesengrund.
by KMarch on Nov 30, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Do we know if Baker can play the right side? Hawley is just too weak a person to play offensive line in the NFL. Move Baker over and try him out at guard.
There's no reason to think that he couldn't
DOL reported that he was doing some work at RT last week which was interesting to me. It demonstrates to me that the coaches want him to be available on both sides (signaling his role as a backup for at least the rest of this season). Obviously, he won’t be taking over as a starter for Clabo considering the latter has just had his two best games and seems to be finding his form.
by KMarch on Nov 30, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
got a link to that DOL story?
(I can’t find it) I agree that would probably mean he’d be the swing tackle on gamedays.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
can't find an article
but here’s a tweet from DOL about it.
Sam Baker alternating at left and right tackle during warmups for the #Falcons. #atlmin11
by KMarch on Nov 30, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

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