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To Roddy or not to Roddy
by wiesengrund on Nov 21, 2011 8:32 PM EST
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PrintIn the thread over there I took some time to check how Ryan's numbers looked like when you split them between throws to Roddy, and throws to other players. I did the numbers for the Titans game and it turned out, although Roddy was hailed for his best game of the season (and it definitely was a step in the right direction), he still was plagued by some drops and a bad catch rate of 50% which translated to a significantly worse passer rating for Ryan when he threw in Roddy's direction.
So I decided to check Ryan's numbers on that same split over the season. After the jump.
Roddy now has 54 catches on 99 targets for 710 Yards and 3 TDs. That gives us a completion percentage and YPA-figure. To get the passer rating we also need INTs, and that's actually pretty hard to come by without going through all the play-by-play data, but thankfully Advanced NFL Stats recently compiled the numbers for INTs by intended receiver, and Roddy is among the league leaders with 5. So Ryan's statline when throwing to Roddy comes out as:
54 of 99 for 710 Yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs - 54.5 % completion, 7.2 YPA, 3.0 TD%, 5.1% INT% and a 66.5 passer rating.
We can deduce these numbers from Ryan's totals to get the following stat line representing his throws when he's not targeting Roddy:
165 of 261 for 1915 Yards, 12 TDs and 5 INTs - 63.2 % completion, 7.3 YPA, 4.6 TD%, 1.9 INT% and a... 92.7 passer rating.
Whoa.
Now, not all of this is down to Roddy of course. He may have a down year with the drops and the penalties, but some of these awkward numbers still have to come from the fact that he is getting far more (and deeper) targets than any other player on our team (i.e. more workload). He also gets better coverage than anyone else which makes catching balls harder. Defenses probably noticed he lead the league in targets and receptions last year, so they went to destroy the best and most relevant chemistry we had in our passing game.
I am still surprised how well it worked. Right now Ryan's better off throwing to any other guy. Let's hope that all changes and Roddy uses his recent momentum to get back to the form he had, back to being a strength of this team: In 2010 Ryan had a 99.1 rating throwing to him, compared to a 87.3 when not.
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Thats
some pretty convincing stuff right there, especially looking at it compared to last year. any idea what it was after 10 games last year?
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by AplusBEqualsABE on Nov 21, 2011 9:26 PM EST reply actions
Targets
All the data is easy to find for the games through weeks ten… except for targets. I can’t find any database that lists the targets for a WR up to a specific week for previous season. Anybody know something?
Julio
For the sake of comparison, Ryan is completing 59% of his passes to Julio, clocking a 96.7 passer rating.
While Roddy has a much higher DYAR than JJ
RW is 27th and JJ is 38th. There is very little difference between their DVOA. RW has an effective yards ratio above one while JJ’s is less than one.
A QB rating does not show the value of the WR’s play and can be misleading.
Let's add in the types of passes JJ's been getting though too
at least once a game, JJ is getting passes right at or behind the LOS forcing him to do something with it. When it doesn’t happen those passes can reek havoc on DVOA.
Yeah, ATL probably shouldn't throw another pass to Roddy
After all he is fourth in the NFL with 1st down receptions (42), he has the highest %first downs per reception on the team, he’s tied with a large group of receivers for 7th for receptions within the opponents 20 (7 receptions) and he’s tied for first in the NFL for 1st down receptions on 3rd down.
I think it's pretty clear that was not what I was going for.
It just goes to show that opposing Defenses really found a way to hurt Roddy’s game, and thus, much of Ryan’s game since he depends so much on Roddy. It is the predictability that makes opposing defenses work. Last year Ryan threw three INT’s in Roddy’s direction. This year he is up to five in 10 games. Something definitely happened.
Also of note, four INT’s went to Gonzo. That makes 9 out of 10 INTs going to guys that my younger brother would identifiy as our go-to-guys if he were a DC.
I’m not saying don’t throw to him, but his mental issues (drops, penalties) together with a defensive emphasis galore are not helpful this year. It also maybe goes to put Ryan’s play into another light, since he seems like his usual self when throwing to the other guys.
They will, of course, never get the same numbers as Roddy cause their workload is much lighter, but saying Roddy has better numbers than JJ is still not saying much. Roddy is still 27th in DYAR and 40th in DVOA with a questionable catch rate. That’s our #1 reciever there.
Okay, since 2008 he was never great in DVOA, cause his per-play-value is greatly diminished by his catch rate, which should be higher for the amount of targets he gets, but in DYAR he was 4th last year. If he is again (like 2009) sitting ranked around 30 in DYAR despite top 15 QB play, it does tell you something about his consistency and defensive adjustments.
I don’t want Ryan to not throw the ball to him anymore, I want him to throw it to him efficiently. Maybe the way to do that is to emphasize being efficient when throwing to others, so that defenses have to back off of him a bit. But so far, him taking nearly half of our pass attempts like he did against TEN seems a bit weird.
The more we get Julio and HD going and thus ease up the workload and coverage on Roddy, the more he will return to his old form, I think
by wiesengrund on Nov 22, 2011 5:22 AM EST up reply actions 7 recs
Okay
one piece of information you lightly touched on was TG. If you converted the receiver specific INT’s to an interception rate then that percentage is exactly the same for both TG and RW. Does that mean that defenses have found a way around TG’s game also? No. One occurance, like RW, can be contributed to the WR, if it occurs twice then it’s more of a trend and becomes a function of what both of those have in common. TG’s CR, according to Advanced NFL stats is 67.6%. So, based on his higher catch rate but equivalent interception rate what is the problem? It is most likely situational or bad passes/decisions from Ryan.
As far as catch rate comparisons go, RW’s CR is 55%. Charles Johnson’s is 58%, Larry Fitgerald’s is 54% (could argue that is due more to the QB play for AZ), ABouldin’s is 53% and all of those WR’s have roughly the same number of passes thrown at them. Catch rate is much more than just dropped passes.
I agree
that TG’s numbers show that it’s more than just Roddy being off, and I said so in the post itself.
Roddy’s 55% catch rate still ranks him around the 50th place in FO’s list of WRs with at least 32 targets, if I’m not mistaken. We can pick examples of other receivers having also this or that problem,but the fact remains that a) even with those bad catch rates those guys still outproduce Roddy and b) tons of other guys are having a better catch rate. And are outproducing Roddy.
Regardless of the latter point in the post about TG
the title of the article is “To Roddy or not to Roddy”. That inference is pretty clear.
Again, with your last sentence the inference is that the issue lies solely with Roddy. While he has dropped to many passes there are more than drops factored into value of play. Matt fixes his issues and RW’s numbers improve.
The eyeball test
You guys do a great job of arguing the numbers, and you’re both making good points. The thing that stands out to me is the eyeball test.
For instance, against the Titans, Roddy let a ball sail through his hands in the end zone that he would have caught last year. Granted, it was a difficult catch, but it was catch-able. He also let a first down catch sail straight through that was – again – very catch-able.
The other thing that stands out is the lack of discipline. Roddy has been flagged quite a few times this season – including at least 2 unsportsmanlike penalties – which indicate a lack of mental discipline.
To be clear – 2010 was an amazing year for Roddy, not dropping a ball until late in the season – but he is definitely not living up to those standards this year.
Good points
and the numbers don’t account for his stupid plays, like the penalties.
On the first down miss, since he has the most 1st down receptions it stands to reason he has the most 1st down targets and would possibly have the most first down drops/misses.
I understand what you’re saying and what you’ve seen goes along with the numbers. What it boils down to is that Roddy is having an off year catching the ball, My point is how much is his fault and how much is Ryans? Ryan has made some pretty bad throws this year and has hurt the receiver performance and stats.
One target that comes to mind is a deepish ball Matt threw to Roddy
He made a fantastic catch while being double covered in the endzone. Only problem is the ball floated out of bounds a couple of yards. Both players have been maddeningly inconsistent at times this year w/Roddy maybe being a but more mad. Hell you can throw the Oline into the mix. Their piss poor play led to Matt rushing throws or making bad throws, which led to Roddy seeing passes come to him a half second sooner or later which leads to him dropping the ball or making a circus catch.
The line has gotten better but who knows? The timing may still be off. A lot of Gonzo’s catches are made with full extension(high throws, sometimes too high). Many layered problem. It’s hard to believe Roddy could go from all pro to above average in one season.
Agreed...
and also have you noticed how uncomfortable he looks in the pocket at times, over shuffling his feet…almost like he is having a fit of claustrophobia. I blame most of this on the very bad OL performance to start the year but they are getting better but he still seems uncomfortable.
This has also contributed to allot of his poor throws/decisions he has been making. The “Ice” just doesn’t seem to be in the veins this year. I think he will be fine, all part of his learning curve I think…
"I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl." - Joe Jacoby, formerly of the Redskins
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Better as of recent
I think the Titans game was as comfortable as Ryan has looked out there, and the numbers are showing that.
As for Ryan causing some of Roddy’s issues – that’s definitely true. Ryan has sailed more balls this year and that has doubtless led to some of the difficult catches. I think the early season frustration of trying to force the ball to Julio also caused some tension.
That said, I do believe both are getting back in line with what we expect of them and once Roddy gets fully disciplined again, all of this will be water under the bridge.
He has looked better but even when the line was improving,
he was still jumping at shadows. Not that I blame the guy! He was getting hit from every side. He’s settling in again, slowly but surely and hopefully the staff doesn’t pull a “nobody loses their job because of an injury!” thing. I like Baker(USC!!!) but the proof is in the pudding.
To me the issue was
that the entire offense was out of whack and it was an additive effect. The OL was letting anyone rush through and hit Matt. Matt was rushing passes and pressing trying to get the ball out of the pocket. Roddy was pressing trying to get to the ball earlier and make plays. I also wonder if Roddy might have one of Mike Smiths hush-hush injuries of some kind.
If you look at the interception rate for TG and RW that let’s you know that Matt is pressing. I wish he would get the ball the the RB’s more and use the WR further down on the roster more. Now that the OL is protecting him better maybe that will start to happen.
Is he mental?
All of Roddy’s problems are either mental or related to the lack of an off season. Roddy, I believe, only showed up to a handful (1-3) of the player organized practices and he has not had the timing and precison that he and Ryan showed last year. Also, he seems to have some kind of self esteem issue with Julio being in the 1A/1B situation, and one cannot discount the defensive changes. In my humble opinion the problem is more with Roddy than with Ryan. I believe Ryan wants desperately to connect to his #1, but Roddy seems to be a space-cadet this year. C’mon Man!
by Saint's Hater on Nov 22, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
I guess a good discussion
will most times come with negatives out of positives
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
MWALEX
Always enjoy bour participation on these threads. You have mentioned weveral times that you did not get to watch the games. I was wondering why? Scuse the misspelling.
I live in the Dallas Fort Worth
area and the only way ATL is on is if they play the Cowgirls or some odd game here and there. Watching the games on-line can be a pain and I’m too lazy or cheap to get the NFL package. I usually go to a local sports bar on Sunday with friends to watch the ’Girls and they rarely show the Falcons.
great job weisengrund, Rec'd
Interesting to note that while the YPA looks similar for Roddy vs “everybody else”, those numbers include TE’s and RB’s Targets, and are poor for a WR (he’s 53rd of 79 Ranked WR’s; YPT). 7.2 YPA is about an average Tight End. Julio’s at 9.8, and HD is at 8.1 – if the averages are right on Football Outsiders types-of-Receiver-breakdown, an average #1 WR should be getting 8.6 YPA.
Julio’s gotta get healthy to take some of the pressure off Roddy, Ryan needs to quit forcing it to Roddy so much… and Roddy’s just flat-out got to perform better.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 23, 2011 3:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I call it the Vernon Davis Syndrome
Yes, I know Davis blocks more than White but White’s drawing more coverage than other players and double teams which make it extremely difficult to place the ball like before.
Ron Artest = Ron (sm)Artest - He Is The Most Interesting Man In The World
by JoshChildressAfroIsCure4Cancer on Nov 25, 2011 2:42 PM EST reply actions
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