To Roddy or not to Roddy

In the thread over there I took some time to check how Ryan's numbers looked like when you split them between throws to Roddy, and throws to other players. I did the numbers for the Titans game and it turned out, although Roddy was hailed for his best game of the season (and it definitely was a step in the right direction), he still was plagued by some drops and a bad catch rate of 50% which translated to a significantly worse passer rating for Ryan when he threw in Roddy's direction.

So I decided to check Ryan's numbers on that same split over the season. After the jump.

Roddy now has 54 catches on 99 targets for 710 Yards and 3 TDs. That gives us a completion percentage and YPA-figure. To get the passer rating we also need INTs, and that's actually pretty hard to come by without going through all the play-by-play data, but thankfully Advanced NFL Stats recently compiled the numbers for INTs by intended receiver, and Roddy is among the league leaders with 5. So Ryan's statline when throwing to Roddy comes out as:

54 of 99 for 710 Yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs  - 54.5 % completion, 7.2 YPA, 3.0 TD%, 5.1% INT% and a 66.5 passer rating.

We can deduce these numbers from Ryan's totals to get the following stat line representing his throws when he's not targeting Roddy:

165 of 261 for 1915 Yards, 12 TDs and 5 INTs - 63.2 % completion, 7.3 YPA, 4.6 TD%, 1.9 INT% and a... 92.7 passer rating.


Now, not all of this is down to Roddy of course. He may have a down year with the drops and the penalties, but some of these awkward numbers still have to come from the fact that he is getting far more (and deeper) targets than any other player on our team (i.e. more workload). He also gets better coverage than anyone else which makes catching balls harder. Defenses probably noticed he lead the league in targets and receptions last year, so they went to destroy the best and most relevant chemistry we had in our passing game.

I am still surprised how well it worked. Right now Ryan's better off throwing to any other guy. Let's hope that all changes and Roddy uses his recent momentum to get back to the form he had, back to being a strength of this team: In 2010 Ryan had a 99.1 rating throwing to him, compared to a 87.3 when not.

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

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