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The Falcons Are Going From Turnstile To Fortress

Yesterday, I talked a little bit about how Eric Weems has flown under the radar in 2011. You know what else we haven't talked about all that much? The slow but steady emergence of the defense. 

The Falcons are a good-to-great team on that side of the ball thus far in 2011. I know that seems hard to believe when you watch this cornerback make a dumb mistake or that linebacker fail to wrap up on a tackle, but this is a team that has taken huge strides over the last four seasons without getting a lot of credit for it.

Don't believe me? Look at the rankings according to NFL.com first.

Total yardage: 14th
Total points/points per game: 15th
Interceptions: 12th
Fumbles: 11th
Sacks: 27th

You'll note that the Falcons are near the middle of the pack in everything except sacks, which we'll discuss a little later. In 2010, despite being near the top of the league in turnovers, they were 28th in the league in points allowed per game and 16th in yards per game.

But let's look at Football Outsiders:

Weighted Defense Rank: 7th
Rank Against Pass: 11th
Rank Against Rush: 3rd
Overall Rank: 5th

Intriguing, no? The guys at FO use a system that studies every play of the season (or so they claim) and compares a player and team's performance against an average baseline they establish by doing so. The level of sophistication and diligence here is high, so I'm inclined to trust FO's numbers.

By looking at these side-by-side, you get the picture of a defense that is average-to-above average by traditional measurements and really good by the more newfangled ones. For all the criticism lobbed at guys like Dunta Robinson, Peria Jerry and Stephen Nicholas—some of which is undoubtedly justified—the Falcons have quietly built a D to be proud of.

This confirms that the Falcons' problems have more more closely aligned with the sporadic offensive struggles—FO has the Falcons as 15th overall there—and a crippling combination of bad playcalling, mistakes and poor execution than anything going on with the defense. It also confirms what I've suspected all season long: If the Falcons ever stop shooting themselves in the foot with a shotgun, they're going to be a mighty tough team to beat.

After the jump, we'll touch briefly on two areas the D can improve in.

Star-divide

There's only two readily identifiable weaknesses, unless you want to get into a huge debate about the soft zone. That merits its own discussion.

The Pass Rush

This is where NFL.com and FO agree. The Falcons have been terrible at getting after the quarterback.

NFL.com has them at 27th with 15 sacks. FO has them at 29th with 13. By either measure, the Falcons have been lousy at finishing on the pass rush. Your eyes alone will tell you that they've also been bad at getting any kind of sustained pressure, the kind that forces a quarterback to rush a throw or let loose with a wobbly toss as he's brought to the ground.

I mentioned this yesterday, but this is an area in which the Falcons have to improve. It's a testament to the strength of the secondary and linebackers that the Falcons don't have a truly dismal pass defense, given the lack of support they're getting up front. With John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux and Ray Edwards on the line, among others, it's absolutely inexcusable that the Falcons aren't getting it done.

I'd like to see the linebackers rushing a bit more and Brian Van Gorder trying something new to get his guys into the backfield. The status quo sucks.

The Power Rush

The Falcons are one of the best run-stopping teams in the league. They're allowed the fourth-fewest yardage and have shut down some of the league's fastest, most talented backs. As we're lobbing criticism at the pass rush, it's worth noting that these guys are barricades when a back comes rumbling up.

Well, almost. As it turns out, the Falcons are dismal in power situations. Football Outsiders has them ranked 31st overall with an 82% conversion rate. Even if you're not a fan of the newfangled stats kids these days like to use, you have to admit power situations are simple and elegant. It's any time a back successfully converts on third or fourth down from less than two yards to a first down or touchdown.

Part of that is due to the Falcons having quick, mobile guys up front. Part of that is probably due to the way the Falcons choose to line up in those situations. Any way you slice it, it's an area in need of improvement.

Weigh in on the defense and this post in the comments, if you would.

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BVG

needs to crank up his no pressure blitz up to 11

by Erihury on Nov 18, 2011 8:31 AM EST reply actions  

I like this

encouraging

by JT131 on Nov 18, 2011 8:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I’d like to see the linebackers rushing a bit more and Brian Van Gorder trying something new to get his guys into the backfield. The status quo sucks.

Don’t disagree, but every time they run a zone blitz where a LB rushes and Abe drops into coverage people raise hell. Also, is the FO system opponent-adjusted? I ask because, from what I’ve seen, adding that element tends to throw some additional variables in that aren’t completely quantifiable. For example, one efficiency metric has Oklahoma State as the best defense in college football despite giving up 45 points to Kansas State, 33 to Tulsa, and 34 to Louisiana-Lafayette.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 8:39 AM EST reply actions  

people raise hell

because it usually ends up with Corey Peters covering a WR for more then 1 second

by Erihury on Nov 18, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not talking about that.

I’m talking about Abe dropping into coverage. It should certainly be the exception vs. the rule, but having your most athletic DE drop in a blitz package occasionally is something pretty much every team does.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Ray Edwards, Ray Edwards, Ray Edwards...

He has no explosion, no burst, no moves to get off the block that work, he’s stiff, and he’s just a big waste of money. Some of us knew this from the start, others thought he was the answer to all our pass rush problems (smh). It’s ironic, almost everytime Edwards is benched and Biermann subs in for him Biermann is in the Qb’s face or making a play. As a big Biermann fan, I’m more disgusted with the signing of Ray Edwards halfway through the season than I was the day we signed him.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 8:44 AM EST reply actions  

He may be a key contributor to the improved run defense though.

He definitely seems more sound holding the edge than Kroy.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I think it's more than just Spoon

Edwards has been a quality player against the run, at least.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

It was, partially.

Kroy’s skill set is better suited for a situational pass rush guy.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Hey Kroy's no liability against the run ok.....

He can play the run just as good as “stiff hips”.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Agree to disagree then.

Again, Edwards looks much more stout on the edge to me.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

You’ll likely never get me to say Edwards is better than Biermann at anything pertaining to football.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

that's pretty clear

but at least you’ve openly admitted your bias now. To say that Biermann has been better than Ray Edwards is completely asinine. As the link to Advanced NFL stats shows. Kroy isn’t anywhere near our best player on the DLine. Edwards has been our 3rd most consistently dominant player this year behind Spoon and Lofton.

If anyone deserves to have the finger pointed at him, it’s Abe. He’s completely disappeared this year.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

No no no

You can’t statistically compare Kroy and Ray. Maybe if they were both starters….

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes Yes Yes

you absolutely can. Peria Jerry’s stats are high despite his low snap count. These adv stats taken into account varying snaps, and don’t rely on base stats like just sacks.

BTW: Ray Edwards is currently the 5th rated DE in all the NFL in all-around performance, while Kroy is 61st.

Kroy performed well last year (37th Overall DE), but his performance has fallen drastically this year.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Well

This is why I totally disregard those types of player analysis and stats. If only two sacks in nine games, and getting pancaked numerous times a game makes you the 5th best defensive end in all the NFL then I’m totally in the wrong profession….I can totally post those kind of numbers.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Well

This is why I and some others here will totally disregard your personal player analysis and opinions.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Give it up KMarch

You are wasting time with this one.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I generally prefer EPA to WPA

But Edwards is still 7th there.

Kroy’s drop-off probably actually is mostly playing time related… he had a 1.26 EPA/Game last year, and is at 1.71 EPA/Game this season. Plus, he’s pretty much right on pace for the same number of “successful” plays (Success Count) as he was last year, in fewer snaps.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

rec'd

I tend to torpedo the other side of an argument, and I admit going to far on that one. Thanks for being the ever-constant observant moderate, orang3b.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Now I do question the snap count thing

Do these advanced stats really take into consideration limited play time. A simple example, say DT1 has 10 snaps and 1 sack. DT2 plays 30 snaps and 1 sack. Wouldn’t DT1’s #‘s be higher? It almost seems like you would be penalized for playing too much, while the limited guy wanders in, gets a sack or a TFL, wanders off and looks good on paper. I know it’s a basic example but watching the Dline play week in and week out I just don’t see PJ being a better player than even Vance Walker. Btw, just looking for info on this. Are these legit stats or paper tigers like CERA in baseball?

by aces666high on Nov 18, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Well,

you should be penalized for playing 20 more snaps without a sack.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll answer this if you don't mind KMarch

Just knowing what the abbreviations of these stats are, tells you all you need to know acess666high.

WPA= Positve Win Probability Added

EPA= Positve Expected Pointed Added

Now did you noticed those key words Expected and Probability?…..Draw your own conclusions my man.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh and DVOA

I had to look this one up…Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Expected Points Added

Explained (excerpt):

Suppose the offense has a 1st and 10 at midfield. This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense’s own 45. That situation is worth +1.2 EP, representing a net difference of -0.8 EPA.

Full explanation in the link. Your Expected Points decreases the farther you are away from your opponent’s end zone (then split into down & distance). It’s not that complicated.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

just the opposite of Offensive players

make a Tackle for a 3rd down stop (or whatever produces a negative EP for the play on offense), and then tally up the numbers. Full explanation here.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

no (snap counts)

straight play-by-play stats, that’s all

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair point

Frankly, Kroy should be getting starter’s snaps between relief for Edwards and relief for Abe. Abe’s been a shell of himself so far this year, too.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Also, usually if Abe’s not getting sacks he’s still frequently getting in the Qb’s face ….this year it’s neither one. We need to be preparing for life without him, he’s really losing it.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, he's gone after this year imo.

There’s your starting spot for Kim’s baby daddy.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

lol maybe

Most 4-3 defenses want a speed rusher on the right side but Biermann could work, Jared Allen is great for the Vikings, and Kerney played well there for us for a while after Smith left…

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

You don't consider Biermann a speed rusher?

Playing DE at 255 pounds he’d better have speed off the edge.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

He could work

I think his two biggest highlights (this year and last year) came when he was lined up at right end.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

He was

here. Playing a wide nine technique to keep him off the big OT. He’s your classic undersized speed guy; not the fastest of that group obviously but in that category nonetheless.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Which means he shouldn't play on first down

unless the opposing offense is forced into pass-every-down mode by the score.

'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban

by J Tadpole on Nov 18, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I see where you're going with this....

That’s where Ray Edwards come in play because he’s more productive on run downs…. well played.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

If we needed a DE

that was only stout against the run, but was non-existent on passing downs we should have kept Jamal

by DenverFalcon on Nov 18, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Sanity, not in the least bit

An incorrect statement more like it. There is no comparison between Anderson and Edwards. Anderson wasn’t even that good against the run. Get a clue people.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually you're right

Nobody would take Anderson over the 5th best DE in the NFL

It seems you and you’re friend are here to make this an argumentative thread…can you stop?

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Accurate? This is what I want you to do KMarch...

I want you to type out the words in All Caps “Ray Edwards is the 5th best DE in the NFL”….. Believe it when you type it and type it in confidence. If it still feels accurate to you and you still believe he’s in fact the 5th best DE in all of football based on accurate stats then post it here in response to this comment.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a legitimate discussion

You’re going with traditional counting stats and what your eyes are telling you. KMarch and mwalex are going with FO’s stats and what their eyes are telling them. I don’t think there’s any sense in belittling each other.

Truthfully, I don’t think you guys are going to convince each other at all. Let’s not start bashing each other’s heads over an unwinnable argument.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I'm not bashing anyone's head

Just pointing out the fact that those types of stats are not as accurate as some people on here tend to believe they are. By those ratings Ray Edwards is going to be a ProBowler this year…Is he? No.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Signing off

You Falcoholics have a good day!

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying anybody's bashing anyone's head

But these kinds of discussions tend to bring out the flamethrowers.

Ray Edwards is not going to make the Pro Bowl. You’re absolutely correct. But I actually think those stats are perfectly accurate. So are sacks. Edwards is applying some pressure and performing extremely well against the run, but he’s not closing on sacks.

Both of you guys have points here. That’s all I’m saying.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

2 things

1) You’re completely right – the numbers are not “gospel truth”. Taking them into consideration can help you get a more complete picture, though.

2) Pro Bowl spots are going to the Sack leaders, not neccessarily the best DE’s.

For example: Jason Babin (8th in WPA, 4th in EPA)

9 Sacks is nice, and he’s probably going to the Pro Bowl. But he shouldn’t… because he has been an abomination against the Run this season.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

DE's are paid the big bucks to do what?

Get sacks. Edwards doesn’t do that, and here’s some accuracy for those who think he’s hell against the run…the guy only has two run stops for a total of five net yards. You just said yourself and KMarch rec’d you (I’m so glad he did) that Jason Babin is an abomination against the run…. Jason Babin also has two run stops for a total of five net yards.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

got a link on that?

If he’s not getting Sacks, and he’s not making Run Stops… where’s the +EPA coming from?

And yes, DE’s get big bucks for getting Sacks. That’s why Charles Johnson’s contract (6y-$76M – $12.7M/y) was more than twice as big as Ray Edwards’ (5y-$30M – $6M/y).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, oh, oh... I see now

2 “Stuffs” for 5 “Stuff Yards”.

That’s not all his Run Stops (took me a minute to figure it out). It’s Tackles for Loss on Run Plays. So it’s 2 TFL on Runs for -5 Yards.

For example (vs Saints):

4Q, drive starting with 10:48 remaining – 1st & 10 at ATL32: M.Ingram left end to ATL 30 for 2 yards (R.Edwards).

4Q, drive starting with 4:13 remaining – 2nd & 1 at ATL23: M.Ingram up the middle to ATL 27 for -4 yards (R.Edwards).

OT, drive starting with 10:46 remaining – 1st & 10 at ATL29: M.Ingram right end to ATL 26 for 3 yards (R.Edwards; S.Nicholas).

Football Outsiders would call all 3 of those “Stops” (and I’m pretty sure he’d get a +EPA on all 3 from Advanced NFL Stats… not sure about the baseline on that 3 yard gain in OT), but only the one in bold counts as a “Stuff” in those ESPN numbers.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought “stuffs” were “run stops”, both mean tackles on a ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

If Ingram runs for 3 yards and Edwards makes the tackles that a positive gain so I don’t think it would be considered a run stop or a stuff….I could be wrong.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Positive gain, yes

Truly helping the Offense toward a new set of downs… debatable.

EPA is based on Down, Distance and Line of Scrimmage.

Football Outsiders’ Stop Rate is simple: Successful Plays for the Offense must gain 45% of needed Yards on First Down (I think they fudge it to 4 on 1st & 10); 60% on Second Down; and 100% on 3rd and 4th Downs.

Baselines are very similar for both, because they’re both based on research first done in The Hidden Game of Football.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I may put you on the masthead

As our resident scholar at some point. It’s deserved.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm the king of the world?

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

You're quite knowledgable

helpful to us old fashioned folks, you know…

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Seriously?

me typing something is going to somehow devalue the fact that Ray Edwards is currently the 5th best DE in the NFL according to +WPA and 7th according to +EPA?.

I agree with what Dave has just posted. Here’s what I will do for you: I’ll ignore the rest of your posts and not point out how they’re based on your biased analysis of the game. I’m sorry for disturbing your fantasies of being a great football analyst.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

y’all are crazy!

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Nov 18, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

If disagreeing with

incorrect comments is an arguement go somewhere else.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no incorrect opinion

Nothing wrong with disagreeing. You can disagree with whomever you want, how often you want, but when you tell people to “get a clue”, it’s obvious you’re being argumentative. Have you ever in your life heard someone tell someone else to “get a clue” in a normal, friendly conversation? No. As far as you and KMarch saying things like “go somewhere else” and “I’ll ignore you” goes, I could care less…here I’ll stay.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

If that is the case

then stop accusing people of being arguementative. If “get a clue” triggers that response then “get a clue” and understand what I’m saying. I’m saying try to broaden your scope and see if you can tie together stats and what is going on during the game. You just might see that they match pretty well, if you understand the stats that is.

As far as you staying, I could care less because your opinion means nothing to me. Stay or go, it has no effect on me at all.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

(SMH)

I'm so sorry my opnions don't bring you satisfaction

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks a lot

Glad too see you can use sarcasm. I am impressed.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you insulting my intelligence?

You know what, I refuse to stoop down to your little pathetic level. I was annoyed at first but now I’m far beyond that, it’s obvious I’m talking to a child or a young person because no grown man would say some of the things you say behind the safety of your little computer screen. I’ll put it to like this if I mean so little to you then don’t respond to me because I’m definitely not responding to you anymore.

by dirtybirdy84 on Nov 18, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

No

I’m not insulting your intelligence. What, you can use sarcasm but no one else can?

Sitting behind a computer screen has nothing to do with it and don’t think for one minute that it does.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Jamaal

And yeah, except for the fact that Edwards has been better rushing the passer (2 Sacks in 9 Games vs 4.5 Sacks in 60 Games) AND the against run (check the last year/ this year Advanced NFL Stats links I put up above, or Football Outsiders’ directional ALY breakdown this season and last season… teams can’t run toward Right Tackle or around Right End at all this year).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

CJ

Wish we to charles johnson, he wanted to come here, hes a native of atlanta but dont blame him for turning down 76 million lol

by Nedk23 on Nov 18, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

The defense has done its job

Other than the Chicago game and the 2nd half at Seattle I think the defense has played well this year, and times during the Eagles game.

The pass rush much improve though.

by StevenF on Nov 18, 2011 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

I don't understand why Peria isn't getting more snaps

per snap, he’s one of our most successful and efficient defenders. I’m not sure what the coaching staff is seeing (or not seeing) in practice, but PJ has produced on the field. Get him more snaps! If he’s injured, put him on the damn injury report, but at this point, if I was TD, I’d demand that he get his ass on the field more often.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 9:54 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

It's a curious thing

I don’t necessarily want him on the field at the expense of Peters, but why not have him play more for Babs? Babs, like Abe, hasn’t quite been himself this year.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe it's just that PJ isn't better than those players ahead of him

I would like to believe that we put the best players out there(but who knows with this staff sometimes) and in a rotation you’d probably give more reps to the guy who looks better in practice. PJ has been invisible in the olde tyme stats more often than not, then comes out of nowhere and does something…then disappears again. After a 3 tackle game against TB he had zeroes in the standard stats department, had an assist in the Ind game and a QB hit against NO. Supposedly he looked great in the Pre season according to our team but it looks like he’s now dropping behind Vance Walker in the rotation as well.

by aces666high on Nov 18, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I genuinly can't see the ball in that pic

It’s probably right there I just..can’t.

As maligned as our D is by our own, myself included, we’ve done a very good job recently. Save for a few middle of the zone moments, we’ve been pretty damn stout all year.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

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by Turner_The_Burner on Nov 18, 2011 9:54 AM EST reply actions  

Dammit!1

I was distracted by their sight lines.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

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by Turner_The_Burner on Nov 18, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Dammit 1 indeed.

Be sure to check out this week's Best Case/Worst Case article here.

Follow me on Twitter! @HarrisonN17

by Turner_The_Burner on Nov 18, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions  

This is a great article, btw, Dave.

I’d like to see more of this kind of stuff. Seems like there’s been a lot of recaps recently, which I know a lot of people like. But, every now and then, it is interesting to track these general trends within the overall OFF or DEF or just units themselves.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

Great article Dave

The D has played much tougher offenses that last year and has still improved. I would like to see an increase in QB pressures and take aways. That is where BVG needs to improve his DL stunts and blitz packages.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Defense

Fully agree that the defense is vastly improved vs last year and that we are one of the most underrated units in the league.
The good:
1. Linebacking core is top-5, perhaps top-3
2. Brent Grimes is a stud and is a top-10 cb in the NFL
3. Safety play has been solid and when healthy William Moore is a force to be reckoned with
The not so good:
1. Dunta Robinson is having a terrible season. He is a phenomenal tackler, but he just can’t stick with his assignment and is consistently late to the ball in zone coverage.
2. Have got to get more pressure on opposing QB’s. Not sure if we need to mix more blitzes in here, or if its our stop the run first mentality (which is effective), but we cannot seem to get after opposing QBs. With a committee of Abraham, Edwards, Sidbury, and Bierman at end , I cant see any reason that we could not generate pressure with 4 lineman.

I am eager to see how we come out this week after the tough loss to the Saints. With Matt Schaub going down and an approaching schedule of Tennesse, Minnesota, Houston, Carolina and Jacksonvlile; the birds could be 10-4 heading into our Monday nighter at New Orleans. I honestly believe we are better than the Aints.

Lets get this run to the playoffs going.

Go Birds

by AndrewGa1687 on Nov 18, 2011 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

Defense has improved every year since 2007 (in DVOA, at least)

2007 – 28th
2008 – 25th
2009 – 20th
2010 – 12th
2011 (so far) – 8th

The need for improved Pass Rush is obvious, like you said. The 5.1% Adjusted Sack Rate (29th) is the worst it’s been since at least 2007 (I didn’t check further back than that).

The “Power” Rush number matches up with another sneaky stat I noticed: the Run Defense is great overall, but teams are able to run “up the middle” basically at will – they’re Top 10 in every direction except Mid/Guard, where they’re 27th (ALY splits are in the same link as the ASR nunbers). Babs is really struggling this season. I don’t know if the MCL is still bothering him, but his production is way, way down.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 1:08 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

now that's an interesting trend

perhaps we should back off BVG a bit. But then there’s the maddening inconsistency of the pass rush and inefficiency of the blitz schemes as you mention. Thus, we’re left with the observable idea that the overall quality of our DEF players has gotten better in the last 4 years, and maybe they’re making BVG look better than he actually is. Is BVG holding the Falcons back from becoming a potentially elite DEF crew.

As per the Babineaux point, you’re absolutely right, which is another reason PJ should be seeing more snaps. Crazy.

by KMarch on Nov 18, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

teams are able to run "up the middle" basically at will....

maybe that is why MM is so convinced that works so well… if it works in practice….

I keed – I keed

Any ideas on how to improve the sack totals? Different blitz packages? Tighter coverage – that zone coverage makes screen game and quick pass options really hard to stop… I find it really hard to believe that we still have personnel problems. Maybe tackling is the problem (this hasn’t seemed as bad as last year where we seemed to play a lot of ‘greasy’ QBs).

Where can I find stats that tell us all our QB pressures? I know John Abe was collecting a lot of those last year.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Nov 18, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

RE: Pressures

Only reliable (and free) source I know is Football Outsiders – but they don’t come out until well after the season’s finished. Pro Football Focus will usually puts out a summary (or Top 10/ Bottom 10) of their Pressure numbers a couple times a year, you just have to watch for it.

How to improve Sack totals? I have no idea. Guess we need to draft Abe’s replacement… preferably before the 4th Round (Sidbury).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I am still perplexed by how many people view this defense…

It seems like everyone (understandably) assumed that the 2011 Falcons would be an offense-first team with a defense that would hopefully be good enough to hold the leads provided by the offense. But in reality, the exact opposite has happened… the offense has been incredibly disappointing while the defense has stepped it up and been better than we all thought.

And despite that, it seems like when things go wrong, a lot of people jump on the defense. They aren’t the problem this year. Not by a long shot.

The issues on this team have been and will continue to be the offense. How an offense this loaded can be this mediocre/bad is beyond me, but that’s where we are. Look at game after game and the offense either hasn’t shown up or has taken half the game off. Meanwhile the defense has either shut teams down or limited high caliber offenses (GB and NO) to reasonable points that should have been MORE than enough for our offense to overcome, which of course they didn’t. If the offense had just been half of what we’d expected this year, we’re probably a 7 win team right now.

At some point we’re gonna have to acknowledge that this is becoming a defense-first team with a very disappointing offense that will require some major overhauls. The defense is trending in the right direction… the offense is plummeting.

by cheshire falcon on Nov 18, 2011 1:55 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

I could not agree more...

While our defense continues to be a “bend but (hopefully) don’t break” style of defense, and we all hate to see blown coverages that result in easy yards/scores, the bottom line to me is the defense has kept us in every game this year with the possible exception of the Chicago game.

If you’d have been told at the start of the season we would hold Green Bay to 25 points and New Orleans to 23 (in regulation) I’ll be almost everyone would have picked the Falcons to easily win both of those games. The fact that we lost points to the offense, not the defense.

Gregg Williams style aggressive/disruptive defenses tend to be more fun to watch and sometimes put up more impressive stats (like sacks and interceptions) but overall they don’t tend to perform as well over the course of a season. Those types of defenses are what can give you things like losses to St. Louis.

by Scott Q on Nov 18, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I have a question for everyone and I know it's off the subject

I just saw on NFL.com that Matthew Stafford got a $7,500 fine for the brawl HE started Sunday by grabbing Moore’s face mask. Moore was fined $15,000 for retaliating ( which I would have done myself! ) What Matthew Stafford did was by the very definition of ‘Head Hunting’ and trying to injure an opponent – but when Dunta Robinson or James Harrison does something like this they are subject to real heavy fines and/or suspensions!
Does anyone here besides me thinks that this is just a little bit hypocritical of the NFL if not bias?

by Antonio Grimes on Nov 18, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

It's karma!!

Or so Suh would say. After all, just how badly could a QB hurt someone?

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Now watch what would happen

If Dunta Robinson or Sean Weatherspoon or Matt Ryan even does something like that! Watch how quickly they would call us dirty players! They already say that about Dunta

by Antonio Grimes on Nov 18, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

What happen was

Detroit wanted to play big boy football and the bigger boys came and robbed their faces in the sand! Thats karma Suh!

by Antonio Grimes on Nov 18, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

question here

I agree with the most important point of this article – the D did step up, although it’s far from being dominant (as we’d expected it to be after signing Dunta and RE).

The Falcons are one of the best run-stopping teams in the league. They’re allowed the fourth-fewest yardage and have shut down some of the league’s fastest, most talented backs.

could this be due to simply the opposing offenses prefering to throw the ball against us? Green Bay, NO, even Carolina are the kind of teams that are pass-oriented, and very few other teams we faced have a good running back. so seeing low rush yds allowed could be a bit misleading.

now, this is a theory, I don’t have stats to support it.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Nov 18, 2011 4:19 PM EST reply actions  

It's an interesting theory

Something that’s difficult to pin down aside from looking at rush/pass attempt numbers. I think to some degree it’s the falcons shutting down the run and other teams going to the air. That’s just a theory, too.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

it's both

Rushing Y/A (3.9) is 7th; Passing NY/A (6.8) is tied for 22nd.

Rush DVOA is 3rd; Pass DVOA (+1.5) is 11th – but if you look at straight VOA (without opponent adjustments), we’d be at +12.3% (negative is better for Defense), which would rank somewhere around 17th (much closer to the “standard stats” rank).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 18, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think the lack of a pass rush is a major factor in that

Not to totally excuse the secondary, but no corner in the league can keep his guy under wraps for as long as the Falcons have been giving quarterbacks this season.

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by Dave Choate on Nov 18, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

It's horribly depressing watching our pass rush

Ive said it a few times here and I’ll say it again. If you want to show a bunch on high school football players what the perfect passing pocket looks like, just show them our four man rush. I put most of that squarely on BVG. Yes our D has looked better as of late but we still give up the 3rd and long, still have huge holes in our zones, generate no pressure and have some of the most comical blitz schemes out there. If a guy doesn’t immediately break thru, theres absolutely no chance we’ll even generate a QB pressure or cone close to collapsing the pocket. Fear is what drives BVG. Fear of giving up the big play, fear of someone missing an assignment because something new and daring is inserted into the playbook. We don’t scare anyone with what we do. Sometimes you gotta take that chance and put the fear into them.

by aces666high on Nov 18, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

It has to be playing a factor

but my question is why? Looking only at adjusted sack rate, in 2008 ATL has an ASR of 6.9%, good for 34 sacks and being ranked 10th. It has been a constant downhill slide since then. ATL has rotated in a myriad of DL since then and nothing has improved. One big change between 2008 and 2009 was the new DC but can that be the biggest driver for the reduced sack rate?

Are the other factors that can explain what’s happening?

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I would look for possible reason

on offense too.
in 2008 we had a strong run game, and surprisingly good start from Ryan. coupled with a soft schedule we were able to bleed the clock once we got the lead, making the opposing Offenses hurry and revert to passing game early. that made the D’s life easier.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Nov 19, 2011 5:06 AM EST up reply actions  

a pass defense like ours

with strong secondary (or so we think) and poor pass rush (or so we think) struggles against offenses with multiple receiving threats. when pass rush doesn’t get any pressure on A Rod or Brees those QB’s have at least 3-4 excellent receivers to throw to. and they complete most of their passes because our secondary cannot physically cover so many threats downfield. we can’t clone Grimes unfortunately.

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Nov 19, 2011 5:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think so

We’re Top 10 against the run in nearly every advanced metric too, top 5 in most of them, and those stats don’t look at totals, but at play-by-play-efficiency. Our box is great.

by wiesengrund on Nov 19, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

wow

than it’s all good :)
just didn’t want to jinx our D by saying it’s awesome

Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia

by Gemini-RU on Nov 19, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Lawrence Sidbury

Has anyone else notice Lawrence playing good. He has a raw talent but came out of a small school so hes a work in progress but when he has been in hes been effective, i really think hes on the cusp of being a good pass rushers, has burts moves just needs to be coached up. Same goes for D franks think he will be a stud CB raw talent young dude who needs developing, and cbs fully develop around yr 3-4

by Nedk23 on Nov 18, 2011 6:55 PM EST reply actions  

Can you say that he's played good?

He has two sacks, which on the current team is good but he’s only been in three games, has four tackles and no assists. His low numbers might be due to a lack of snaps but he hasn’t played well enough to get more snaps.

by mwalex on Nov 18, 2011 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

The same could be said about PJ, just the reverse

In that his advanced stats are pretty solid but his standard stats are at best, average. I don’t know what’s going on. Our Dline rotation looks good on paper but we have yet to see that moment when everything clicks into place and we generate pressure on more than 2-3 plays, which it was literally last week, 2-3 plays.

by aces666high on Nov 19, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

correction,

last year the falcons gave up the fifth in points allowed, or 27 teams gave up MORE points. They’re giving up a few more points this year, but that number will go down.

by BEZERKO on Nov 20, 2011 6:17 AM EST reply actions  

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