Stats v. Stats: BVG's Worst Nightmare

This series dissects each upcoming game from a statistic-driven viewpoint, focusing in on one or more positional battles of interest.  Not predicting what will happen, just trying to narrow down what could happen, assuming past performance tells us something about future performance.  If any of these statistics don't sound familiar, give our Statistics 101 Series a read.

As the NFC's #1 overall seed, we get to embarrass have the privilege of facing the lowest seed to emerge from this weekend's Wild Card Round.  The possibilities (at least in this case) aren't endless: we will face Seattle, Green Bay, or New Orleans in next weekend's Divisional Round.  BVG and his staff are undoubtedly scheming for specific players already, which means yours truly is back at it, prognosticating for prognostication's sake.

Join me after the jump if advanced stats make ya wanna jump jump ...

Consider the following:

2008 Team Defense DVOA - 10.6 percent LESS successful than the league average or 25/32 teams.

2009 Team Defense DVOA - 6.1 percent LESS successful than the league average or 20/32 teams.

2010 Team Defense DVOA - 1.3 percent LESS successful than the league average or 12/32 teams. 

Our Pass Defense DVOA - 5.3 percent MORE successful than the league average or 10/32 teams.

Our Run Defense DVOA - 4.4 percent MORE successful than the league average or 13/32 teams.

Our Pass Defense DVOA v. Opposing Team's #1 WR - 7.4 LESS successful than the league average or 23/32 teams.

Our Pass Defense DVOA v. Opposing Team's #2 WR - 11 percent MORE successful than the league average or 6/32 teams.

Our Pass Defense DVOA v. Opposing Team's #3/#4/#5 WRs (collectively) - 7 percent MORE successful than the league average or 13/32 teams.

Our Pass Defense DVOA v. Opposing Team's TEs (collectively) - 2.1 percent LESS successful than the league average or 13/32 teams.

What does it all mean?!?!?! It means (1) our defense is getting better year-by-year; (2) our defense this year ain't that bad; and (3) we've sucked against #1 WRs this year.  The final point is (really) the one I want you to ruminate on for a minute.

These are the #1 WRs we could potentially face:

Colston's (NO) DVOA is 8.5 percent MORE successful than the league average or 27/85 receivers (minimum 50 passes).

Jennings' (GB) DVOA is 19.7 percent MORE successful than the league average or 6/85 receivers (minimum 50 passes).

Obomanu's (Seattle) DVOA is 15.8 percent MORE successful than the league average. But he doesn't have the minimum 50 passes required to be ranked; if he did, he'd be 8/85 receivers.

Here's where you come in!  I am curious which #1 WR you all think BVG is tossing and turning about.  Jennings is the easy choice IMO.  Please explain your choice and as always, GO FORTH AND BE STATISTICAL!

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