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Aaron Rodgers Vs Atlanta Pass Defense: Can we force him to Dink and Dunk Again?

by Vishnu_falcon on Jan 14, 2011 10:44 AM EST

Stats can be misleading but Tape doesn't lie. I watched the Packers game again on NFL Rewind specifically focused on our Pass defense vs. GB offense which is one of the Hottest and Best NFC Pass Offense (as per ESPN) ever to play.

All I hear in the media is Aaron Rodgers had a big game with 344 Yards (Avg 13.23 yards) and torched our secondary without a running attack compared to Matt Ryan(197 Yards). The conclusion is Matt Ryan did dink and dunk and Aaron Rodgers was torching our secondary and we didn't have an answer.

Not so fast in fact Aaron Rodgers was dinking and dunking whole game with Flea flickers which went for 30+ Yards. Let's take a deeper look in to the numbers.

Player	TA	Rec	% Comp	Yards	YAC	Long	Avg.	TD	Int	PDef by Falcons	20+ Plays
Aaron Rodgers	35	26	74.2%	344	191	35*	13.23	1	0	2	5

1. 1. Yards after Catch (YAC): GB had 191 YAC which is approximately 55% of the total yards. If you remove YAC the Avg becomes 5.88 Yards/Rec. The Falcons secondary did a good job in limiting Big Play Throws and it was more or less dink and dunk by Aaron Rodgers.

2. Long Plays: The 5 plays longer than 20 yards were 35,34,31,30 and 28. If you add up the long play yards it's about 158 Yards and YAC in those plays was 99 Yards. The average yards for the 5 long plays if you remove YAC is 11.6. There was only one pass thrown by Rodgers longer than 20 yards if you remove the YAC.

3. The YAC was high because of the scheme and also because of poor tackling. The Pass defense missed 6 tackles and most of them went for long gains. This is a great opportunity for the defense to improve on.

4. Starks might help them in short Yardage situation but I wonder how much more improvement he can bring when most of the Yards we gave up were YAC in the middle or on the edges.

Bottom-line: The Falcons would want to take the deep throws away and make Rodgers Dink and dunk similar to last time but limit YAC. This is how you contain Rodgers. I am not sure if Blitz is going to help. BVG and Mike Smith please bring on the chess game with some extra wrinkles.

I have included the stats for the defense in the pass coverage. DR was probably our best DB in the game.

Player	Snaps	Penalties	TA	Rec	% Comp	Yards	YAC	Long	Avg.	TD	Int	PD	20+ Plays	MT
Dunta Robinson	60	0-0	2	2	100%	30	27	30	15	0	0	0	1	1
Brent Grimes	58	0-0	9	7	77.77%	108	47	31	15.42	0	0	0	2	2
Brian Williams	49	1-1	3	3	100%	59	35	35	19.66	0	0	0	1	1
DeCoud	59	0-0	6	4	66.6%	33	11	10	8.25	1	0	1	0
William Moore		1-0	2	2	100%	10	10	9	5.0	0	0	0	0
Sean Weatherspoon	49	0-0	4	4	100%	50	32	19	12.5	0	0	0	0	2
Curtis Lofton	61	0-0	4	2	50%	43	29	34	21.5	0	0	1	1
Stephen Nicholas	37	0-0	2	2	100%	11	0	6	5.5	0	0	0	0
Kroy Bierman	46	0-0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coy Wire	3	0-0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total			35	26	74.2%	344	191	35*	13.23	1	0	2	5	6

I have also included some stats on the DB Vs Receivers. Please go ahead and start a debate with your own conclusions

ATL Player	Jennings	James Jones	Jordy Nelson	Brandon Jackson	Donald Driver	John Khun	Brett Swain	Andrew Quarless	Total
Dunta Robinson	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:30			TA:1 Rec:1 Yards: 0					TA:2 Rec:2 Yards:30
Brent Grimes	TA:2 Rec:2 Yards:20	TA:4 Rec:2 Yards:12	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:28		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:17		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:31		TA:9 Rec:7 Yards:108
DeCoud	TA:1 Rec:0 Yards:0 PD:1	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:0	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:10 TD:1		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:9		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:9	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:5	TA:6 Rec:4 Yards:33 TD:1 PD:1
Brain Williams	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:35		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:5					TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:19	TA:3 Rec:3 Yards:59
William Moore		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:9		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:1					TA:2 Rec:2 Yards:10
Sean Weatherspoon		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:18	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:12	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:9				TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:11	TA :4 Rec:4 Yards:50
Curtis Lofton	TA:3 Rec:1 Yards:34 PD:1					TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:9			TA:4 Rec:2 Yards:43 PD:1
Stephen Nicholas		TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:5	TA:1 Rec:1 Yards:6						TA:2 Rec:2 Yards:11
Kroy Bierman				TA:1 Rec:0 Yards:0					TA:! Rec:1 Yards:0

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

Lotta good data there

I think that it points out one bid issue that needs to be fixed and that is tackling. Better tackling would have greatly reduced the YAC for GB. That MUST be addressed for the game Saturday night.

I don’t think GB’s RB will have that big an effect on the game. He will replace Rodgers in their running game. That should be a wash.

by mwalex on Jan 14, 2011 11:58 AM EST reply actions

We are well coached team!

I expect our coaching staff to fix the tackling issues and get ready for the game.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Jan 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

I stated in an earlier post on another thread that after watching the replay

I thought bad tackling hurt us. I saw at least 4 or 5 plays where the first(sometimes only) falcon would miss the tackle after a catch and that receiver would run for another 10-20 yards! That seemd to happen alot on the sidelines I think. I think blitzing rodgers did help, sometimes. He ran mostly when we blitzed it seemed, but I did see him throw a few incompletions due to the blitz. We messed up their timing and he had to throw it or eat it. From what I saw watching the replay. I think we win cuz we won a lot of the one on one matchups during that game on both sides of the ball. Our o-line was dominate and our d-line put pressure on Rodgers all game long. What do you think? Is that what you saw VF?

Georgia Native, Indiana Resident, and Falcon Loving S.O.B.
Yeah, thats me.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 14, 2011 12:36 PM EST reply actions

I agree!

Packers were never comfortable in the game, the missed tackling hurt us in the passing defense. But other than that we dominated the game more than the final score would show. O-Line was absolute beast and when we unleashed Ovie and Turner we smashed the GB Defense in their mouth. It was Good Old Fashioned Football!

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Jan 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

RE: O-Line was absolute beast

Clay Matthews – 0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits. We need a repeat of that tomorrow.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Jan 14, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Rec'd, Vishnu.

Great work again.

Limiting YAC and Missed Tackles will be huge… but difficult. They have a bunch of YAC monsters up there, especially Greg Jennings. He was 5th in YAC Avg for WR’s last year, and is near the top of the leaderboard in total YAC again this season.

Like I said in another thread, I’m much more scared of Jennings (or whoever) matched up on Lofton/ DeCoud in the middle of the field that I am for either of the starting CB’s.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Jan 14, 2011 1:34 PM EST reply actions

I agree on Jennings!

Out of 119 Yards total he had 69 YAC. Dunta and Curtis Lofton got burnt by him in yards after catch. The last 35 Yards against BW was the hail marry attempt in the end.

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Jan 14, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Thoughts from a Packer fan

1.) YAC is what the Packers do. They dont have the most tallented group but they all run very well after the catch.

2.) AR puts the ball where it needs to be. The reason that they got so many YAC is beacuse most of his passes are right where they need to be.

The falcons are a very strong team and they dont make mistakes. This is going to be a battle. mwalex said that Starks will replace Rodgers numbers on the ground. If this happens the Packers win. Not because the rushing yards will beat you but it will open up the play action pass. The Packers had all those YAC when you had seven in the box, if Starks is running even decently, you will have to put another guy in the box from time to time. This would be a big mistake. The only thing that has stoped the Packers the past few weeks is their inabillity to catch the ball. Incompetes are one thing but the drops are just heart breaking. If the Packers dont have a drop they win.

The two things that scare me the most are:

1.) The Falcons getting pressure with their front four. You dont have very many big names besides JA but you are very good at getting pressure on the QB. Do this and you will win.

2.) Turner is a flat out stud. Man it would have been nice to get this guy. If you can get him going, and not just run, run, pass than you have a good shot at winning the game.

I wanted to post to show that not all the packer fans are morons just reading this to talk trash. You guys have a very good team and will be hard to beat. As for everyone picking us to win, IDK I have seen many people pick you guys as well. If the chip on your shoulder is something you embrace than more power to you. I am sure watching the Falcons is like watching the Brewers only with more winning. It should be a good game, Pack by 3. GL you guys.

by Berryjs on Jan 14, 2011 1:50 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for stopping by!

Most of the Packers fans that have come on here have been very classy. Best of luck to you guys, too, though we’re gonna have to send you back home with an L. Sorry! :P

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by Caleb Rutherford on Jan 15, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Well done

Nicely put stats. The YAC was big in their attack. ATL defense seemed improved on stopping that after this game.
With everything on the line, you can bet that both teams leave it on the field. It will be a good game.

one last thing: key to the game will fumbles. Aarons seems to drop the ball a lot. Atlanta didn’t do a good job in the past 5 weeks of recovering their own fumbles nor getting their opponent’s fumbles. It will be interesting to see if Aaron grows a 6th finger to hold on to the ball better and if ATL will jump on loose balls faster.

by Paul Brian Richardson on Jan 14, 2011 2:48 PM EST reply actions

6th finger

thats funny pabst blue ribbon!!

Georgia Native, Indiana Resident, and Falcon Loving S.O.B.
Yeah, thats me.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 14, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions

Not every catches that

PBR. I came ‘this close’ once to getting their blue ribbon inked on me when I was in the Navy. Luckily I was never quite drunk enough to go get a tatoo.
I am so jacked about this game.

by Paul Brian Richardson on Jan 14, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

I guess I'm one of the few ones on here OLD enough to catch it.

lol

Georgia Native, Indiana Resident, and Falcon Loving S.O.B.
Yeah, thats me.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 14, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

Holy statgasm Batman!

Considering the amount of game film you would have to watch to chart this stuff I have to ask – are you one the coaches in disguises? or are you one of Matty Ice’s avatars?

by AU Falcon on Jan 14, 2011 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Its not bad!

NFL game rewind is nice you can just go to a play directly. it took me 2 hrs for the chart. I figured this is a better way to spend the time then play Madden…

It's all about Process...

by Vishnu_falcon on Jan 14, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd!

Awesome job.

by James Rael on Jan 14, 2011 8:22 PM EST reply actions

Rec'd again!

These stats are invaluable. I really need to get NFL rewind. I love being able to look back and take a deeper look at the game.

I bet we do see some more blitz packages though (a la Week 16 vs the Aints) to keep Rodgers on his toes.

PS Don’t look for Starks to be too big of a factor. We’ll have ample time to scheme for him, and since he’s a rookie who’s been injured, he hasn’t had much play time and probably doesn’t have that many plays designated for him.

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech. No, this is not a joke.

by TurnerTheBurner on Jan 14, 2011 10:11 PM EST reply actions

the fact

that u guys have to gameplan against starks is a win for the pack

by Sinsay11 on Jan 14, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not discounting him

but I’m also not expecting him to have another Eagles-like 100+ yard effort on the ground

He had that great performance last week b/c no one on the Eagles staff was expecting Starks to be used at all

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech. No, this is not a joke.

by TurnerTheBurner on Jan 15, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Well, I doubt that they thought he wouldn’t be used at all. He was the most effective RB against Chicago the week before(of course, saying “the most effective RB” in that game is like calling someone “the best player on the Carolina Panthers.”)

But there’s definitely no way they expected him to get any more than, say, 8 carries in the game.

But what Sinsay said is pretty on point. Before that Eagles game, your D probably would have hardly had to spend any time thinking about gameplanning against the run. I’m guessing they probably didn’t do much before the first game.

That’s the one thing that makes me cautiously optimistic going into this one. McCarthy and Rodgers had somehow made the play action very effective even though we had absolutely no threat of a running game in at least 75% of the games we played this year. Now that they’re actually in a game where the defense could possibly be thinking run in situations other than short-yardage, I think the play action could be very deadly in this game. I’m sure that is being drilled into every Falcons defender right now, because if you can play well against our play action, that could very well seal the win for you.

by Packers3485 on Jan 15, 2011 3:02 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry to dissapoint your one thing, but...

after listening all week to the falcons, I really think they could care less about starks. Why bite on playaction when the possible passing part of the play is more deadly than the run part of it? It’s a natural tendency for defensive players to move to/with the ball, but I think they might just not bite so bad on playaction, make sure rodgers handed it off first before committing yourself completely. Also, your running game will not be near as effective against us because of our front 4. well actually about 7-8 guys play in the front 4 rotation and all are good with a couple of great players- abe, babs. Your gonna see a much better pass rush and run defense than what you guys saw last week.

Georgia Native, Indiana Resident, and Falcon Loving S.O.B.
Yeah, thats me.

by ATLsince1972 on Jan 15, 2011 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

The thing is.....

I wouldn’t have expected the play action to work at all, in any of our games. Game after game, our running game absolutely sucked. Yet somehow, we were still able to not just pull off the play action game, but be extremely deadly with it. I can’t explain exactly what it is that causes this. Every defense we’ve played has had absolutely no worry about our running game, yet pretty much all of them still have been burned by the PA game.

I’m not saying Atlanta REALLY has to worry about Starks going off on them like he did against the Eagles. I’m just saying that that little additional hesitation could end up being the key. Even if they’re really not that worried about the run game, that little bit of hesitation that comes from knowing that, for once, they might actually be trying to run it, could be the split second needed for a big play.

by Packers3485 on Jan 15, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

One add-on

I’m thinking this is mainly going to be an issue for the players designated to defend our 3rd-5th receiving options. I don’t expect Grimes or Robinson to be affected, but when it comes to your nickle back, or a linebacker/safety responsible for Jones/Nelson/whoever else? I really think their reactions to the PA game could really be the key in this game.

by Packers3485 on Jan 15, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

One thing

Our defense is less banged up than the Eagles
We also have better safeties, and a crazy mofo up on the D-line called Jonathan Babineaux

"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech. No, this is not a joke.

by TurnerTheBurner on Jan 15, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Why we don't need to worry about the running game at all

Our running defense can best be described as “swarming”. Almost every run play, you see 7 bodies around the ball carrier, especially with north-south rushing attacks. This has hurt us a bit in the end-around, which accounts for most of the surprisingly poor run defense rating. Everything about the Packers is very north-south, from the passing game to any semblence of a running game. I am confident that our defense will (unsurprisingly) shut down their running game, forcing an one-dimensional offensive gameplan, which we already know we can beat.

by falconnuke on Jan 15, 2011 10:12 AM EST reply actions

Third Eye Blind

One immutable FACT for this game in my opinion, is that even Ray Charles and Stevie Wonder can “see” that if we allow Rodgers enough time in the pocket for a cigarette and a cup of coffee, he’s going to pick us apart and the game will probably not end well for my beloved Falcons. Keeping pressure on Rodgers is an ABSOLUTE MUST, in my opinion. As with any opponent, it would be foolish to completely ignore their running game. However, I don’t see us getting beat by a Packers running game. Rodgers is the linchpin (sp?) that makes the Packers work. Contain Rodgers and you contain the Packers. I’m certain that Smitty and BVG are keenly aware of this. Ultimately, the players have to get it done on the field. If the players are not up for this game, then they will never be up for any game. BRING THE INTENSITY FALCONS!!!!

by Talon Grip on Jan 15, 2011 10:59 AM EST reply actions

Dink yes, but no dunk.

On february 5th 2011 at UFC 126 Jon "Bones" Jones will show the world that their was no need for the MMA community to hype this man because this guy is a beast with many skills and i personally will feel Ryan "Darth" Bader's pain after this fight. SB Nation's public enemy #1.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 15, 2011 7:17 PM EST reply actions