Falcons Keeping Things Evenly Split in Preseason

by Adam Schultz on Sep 9, 2010 7:00 AM EDT in Editorial

You can't call the Falcons inconsistent in their past four preseasons. Since 2007, the birds have somehow managed to win two games and lose two games in the NFL's exhibition schedule. Of course, 2007 was a dark, dark year and we only managed to win four contests. Still, a 2-2 record is a good thing, especially considering the team's history of success after drawing an evenly split record at the end of August.

2010 marks the third time straight the Coach Smith-era Falcons have had a .500 percentage before week 1. What has each year's team gone on to do? You should remember 2008 well, and 2009 just as well. 2008 was better than anyone could have anticipated and 2009 broke the Falcons record book.

We're rising up this year, but I decided to take a look back at our past eleven preseasons, making comparisons and calculations. Below the jump, you shall see them in bold, brassy glory.

Year	Preseason Record	Season Record	Notes
99	2-2	5-11
00	4-1	3-13	HOF Game
01	3-1	6-10
02	4-0	9-6-1	Playoffs
03	0-4	5-11
04	2-2	11-5	Playoffs
05	4-1	8-8	HOF Game
06	2-2	7-9
07	2-2	4-12
08	2-2	11-5	Playoffs
09	2-2	9-7	Curse Lifted!
10	2-2	?????	PROFIT!

But what does this all mean? Well take a gander at my silly calculations:

Falcons W/L with under 2-2 preseason (99-09): 5-11 (0.313)
Falcons W/L with 2-2 preseason (99-09): 47-49 (0.490)
Falcons W/L with over 2-2 preseason (99-09): 26-31 (0.456)

Statistically, the Falcons have the best overall season record when they go 2-2 in preseason. They also have, at least in this time period, a better chance of going to the playoffs when finishing preseason with two wins and two losses.

Bottom line, when the Falcons go 2-2 in the preseason, they have about a 49% chance of having a winning record. Not bad odds, really.

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Comments

I never realized it

But we have had a not-so-bad go of it since 2006. 2007 is the exception, but we all know what happened there.

Those consistent 2-2s in the preseason are amazing.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Sep 9, 2010 7:18 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

2006 was a typo. Drat.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Sep 9, 2010 7:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Adam, you internet nerd, you.

There better be some profit this year.

"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, to either side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham

by Zippo729 on Sep 9, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

Uh Adam

In 2007 we were 3-1 in the preseason
Only losing week 1 to the jets 31-10 I think
then 13-10 in buffalo
24-19 against Cincy and I think 13-10 against Baltimore.

Feeding the Monster since 1984

by brotherbrown on Sep 9, 2010 8:19 PM EDT reply actions

however this isn't conclusive

2-2 half the times mean we will have a bad or mediocre year
2002 we were 4-0 in preseason and still went into the second round.
When 0-4 in preaseason and had a horrible season (Vick injuried albeit)
Maybe Vick was a preseason guy.
4-1 in 2005 and went 6-2 to start the season only to finsh 2-6.
I wish it did but to me this really doesn’t prove much
Preseason doesn’t truly measure anything.

Feeding the Monster since 1984

by brotherbrown on Sep 9, 2010 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs