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Things to Worry About: 2011 Lockout

Since the owners of the NFL unanimously vetoed the expiring collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Player's Association way back in the halcyon days of 2008, there's been a thick cloud of mist shrouding just what the professional football landscape will be in the year 2011. With continued reports coming out of every mouth available parroting the woes of work stoppage, it's not looking good for Sunday football lovers. Of course, as Jason Whitlock says, this could all just be madness. It certainly ain't Sparta.

Regardless of the talking heads, the possibility is there and we have to entertain the consequences of the players not getting their fair share. The owners are taking a hard stance against what the players want (mo' money) and are seemingly willing to completely forego the 2011 season. They've already extended TV deals through and past 2011 (ironic, no?), so it isn't like they're going to be without revenue. Add to that no players clamoring for a paycheck, and you've got a whole heck of a lot of incentives for the owners.

Star-divide

To fully fathom what we're staring in the face right now, I'm going to take you back to 1982. I know a lot of you weren't yet born then. Heck, I wasn't either. Just humor me. Imagine turning on your TV and dialing the channel knob (or using a, gulp, wired remote) to ABC in hopes of catching some primetime MNF. Instead, you're met with Jaws II. I'd imagine you'd be pretty upset. Well, so was my Uncle. He had heard (or read, in this particular era) nothing about a player strike. Low and behold, in 82, that's exactly what the players did.

The ‘82 dispute mirrored the current situation: the NFLPA wanted a greater share of the revenues earned by the teams. The strike lasted fifty-seven days and the networks went to great (some would say terrible) lengths to provide some form of football entertainment to the masses. NBC started showing CFL games, presumably prefaced with a notice similar to "No, your TV picture is not stretched out, that's actually how wide the field is." CBS resorted to showing coverage of Division III College football, with such awesome teams as Wittenberg University and Occidental College. Oh boy! FYI, the Falcons defaulted into the playoffs that year since the season was shortened to nine games and the playoff field was expanded to sixteen teams. How'd we do? Vikings, I hate you. The Redskins eventually took home the prize.

Another 80's lockout rolled around for all of a week in 87, but it was telegraphed. The NFLPA attempted a mid-season strike and it only amounted to scab players filling in until the big boys came back to play (some notables did cross the picket lines). It lasted three weeks and gave the world the "Spare Bears" up in Chicago. Chief among the scabby forest dwellers? One Sean Payton. Surely you've heard of him. Oh, and FYI, the nearly-healing-from-the-scabs Redskins managed to finish this year on top too.

So which would be a more likely occurrence? Networks airing Huntsville Junior College Dropouts versus Folsom State Prison Roughnecks games? Jaws II? Maybe. More likely, you'll get a heavy dose of the UFL, CFL, and AFL. It'd be great exposure for those leagues, but let's be honest; no one would really care outside of the miniscule markets those leagues inhabit. Let it be known though that with a TV deal in place some form of NFL football will be aired, even if it's the latest "follies" special. So we can at least have some levity in such a trying time. Do not, however, hold out hope that the NFLPA will try to organize some form of football to be watched. They tried that in 82 and the ratings were only slightly better than cable reruns of The Jeff Foxworthy Show. Oh, and the players wouldn't have health insurance, so any injury would be totally out of pocket. Clearly put, unless signed to another league with the same benefits of the NFL, the players would have no incentive to play.

I guess the most important thing you can take away from my little history lecture is that, should a lockout occur and there is no football in 2011, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Redskins will win the Super Bowl.

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by Dave Choate on May 19, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah take it a step further

And allow you to go behind the scences and make outrageous deals.
As for the Judge Judy, it should be an interactive game of how some girl let her illegitmate boyfriend take advantage of her, and the BF said it was a gift.
Or someone recking a car and finding outrageous ways of saying it was not their fault
Madden would be the baliff, wearing a raider jersey, with a green and yellow parrot named Brett Farve.

by brotherbrown on May 23, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have a sinking feeling about this whole thing

The owners have all the leverage, and they’re hellbent on making changes.

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by Dave Choate on May 19, 2010 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Of course with all that leverage

They’re going to lose quite a bit of money on the next TV contract, since the labor situation is no longer a sure thing and networks will have to factor that in to future offers. This is what happens when you feed the Golden Goose bread soaked with Kentucky Gentleman.

by TheAreopagite on May 19, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

One thing...

One thing I would love to see would be a rookie salary cap. It is INSANE to pay a rookie more than any proven starter on the field. I don’t care how much hype he has because he has never played a single pro down and his stiffest competition wouldn’t even compare to a team twice as terrible as last years Rams or Lions.
Also, less guaranteed money and more incentive based money. If you score a TD, you get money, if you allow less than 5 sacks per year from your spot on the OL thats more money, if you have a completion rating over 65% thats money. If you make the Pro Bowl thats money. If you start a game, thats money. Things like that. Load up on the incentives. Imagine if someone told a high draft pick that he would get $2 million a year with a possible $20 million (or whatever #) if he plays in the top 5 or 10 in his position. How much more production would we see out of the rookies? I can imagine it would be a lot more than we see now.
Pay them for how they play that year. I am sick and tired of seeing people have a monster year or two and make a contract that would pay him more than most 3rd world countries could dream to make and than BOOM the guy is disgruntled or never plays to that level again.

by muuzilla on May 19, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I couldn't agree more

My eyes goggled when Matt Ryan was signed. It’s indefensibly insane to give a guy that much money fresh out of college when he’s never taken a snap at the NFL level. Happily for us, Ryan has (mostly) earned his paycheck thus far, but it’s a situation no team should be in.

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by Dave Choate on May 19, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he's more than mostly earned it.

He hasn’t been an insane balls-out player like some people are, but considering the circumstances (playing hurt last season, the NYJ game I have secretly fallen in love with, etc.) I think he’s been worth every penny the Birds have thrown at him. He’s unselfish, I don’t see a player like him holding out ever, and he’s a ridiculously hard worker. Think about JaMarcus Russell. Think about how much the Raiders threw at him, and he was the epitome of why rookies need a reduction in pay. He let all that money get to his fat head and failed (on one of the worst teams out there right now.)

Heck, if the opportunity arises in the future, I’d pay Matty that much again, if I was the owner.

"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, to either side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham

by Zippo729 on May 19, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll grant you your point here

My argument is just that he hasn’t been on the field for every game. Tough to earn your paycheck when you’re sitting out, whether you can help it or not.

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by Dave Choate on May 19, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

funny how they sat Ryan for two games

But couldn’t do the same for Turner. And look at how well that worked out.

by brotherbrown on May 23, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Maybe being paid on incentives would stop all of these players from holding out every year like the two Johnsons (and, ahem, Roddy, last year)…

by Jman781 on May 19, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do we really want every player on the field obsessing over his stats on every single play?

Besides, basing it on stats wouldn’t work anyway.

For example, I’d say 75% of rushing touchdowns have more to do with good blocking than they do with anything special done by the running back. So we should cut up that TD bonus among all five linemen, plus any TEs, FBs, and WRs on the side of the ball that produced the score. But plays don’t work in a vacuum — the defense was susceptible to that play because of the pass that came before it. Therefore, the QB needs a cut too, plus the WR who made a catch, plus another 5 cuts for the OL that blocked for the pass that came before it, and another cut for the OTHER running back, who was pass blocking on that play. Oh, and the good field position that set up the TD means the entire special teams needs a cut, along with the entire defense that forced the punt. And this all assumes that this is like the fifth play of the game… how do we divvy up a TD bonus that comes in the 4th quarter? If Norwood breaks a long run in the 4th, do Turner and Snelling get portions for wearing down the d? And god help us if we try to figure out what % of credit each and every defensive player should be allotted for each and every snap.

A totally incentives-based system sounds great, but once you take it to its logical extension it’s pretty much exactly what we already have.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on May 19, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

correct

but…is paying someone based on last season’s performance any better? Or paying a kid fresh out of college enough cash so that he can purchase an island any better? I’m just saying that there needs to definitely be a rookie cap and pay scale like in the NBA, and for veterans there needs to be something done. I dont know about where everyone works but I am sure that you receive your raises based on past performance but you keep your job based on current performance (and the boss doesn’t owe anyone nor does it count against the payroll if you quit/resign/are fired). Why cant we use past performance as a base for pay (albeit not $100,000,000 a contract) and than an incentives based program? You are correct in the scenarios you presented but something has got to be better than what we have now.

by muuzilla on May 19, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree

We don’t need a bunch of “Just Give Me the Damn Ball” types on the field; however, I feel that adding more incentives to a contract wouldn’t hurt. You could still have some of the salary be guaranteed (just less than you see now). Not everyone will go for a Ricky Williams type deal…

Why should Ryan get almost $35 million before he even steps foot on the field, especially when we weren’t competing against anyone else on the free agent market for his services? Yes, I am a huge fan of Matt Ryan, but he earns more than anyone not named Roddy…After only 2 years in the league…Those OL and TE you mention are WAY down the list…In fact, Baker is the only OL in the top 10 of Falcons salaries from last season…Why? Because he was drafted in the 1st round. He’s only had a spotty playing career to date…Would you consider Baker our most valuable OL?

The solution is way too advanced for my brain (and I don’t have the time), but there’s got to be a better way…

by Jman781 on May 19, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um...Yeah...Gonzo is a TE

And he gets paid very well, but you get my point. Interstingly enough, our FB and our P get paid more than all OL not named Baker…

by Jman781 on May 19, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey now...

There was 2 knobs on the Tele…a UHF and a VHF! Get it right please kind sir. O yeah, my dad had a wireless remote back than. I was the remote.

by muuzilla on May 19, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

I feel sorry

for you guys that didn’t get to play the original Atari when it came out… pimp.

Man I hope there isn’t a lockout. Just when we’re finally building some momentum. It could also force Tony G. into early retirement.

Fear does not exist in this dojo, does it? NO, SENSEI! Pain does not exist in this dojo, does it? NO, SENSEI! Defeat does not exist in this dojo, does it? NO SENSEI! - John Creese, Kobra Kai

by DonnyBrasco on May 19, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Another theory out there is that there will be no lock out. Instead...

(from pft )

Plenty of NFL observers have opinions as to whether owners will lock out players in 2011, if the current labor deal expires without a new one taking its place.

Sports attorney David Cornwell believes that there will be no lockout.

His opinion carries extra weight in our eyes, given that he was one of four finalists for the position of NFLPA Executive Director last March, along with De Smith, Trace Armstrong, and Troy Vincent.

As Cornwell explains it, the league and the union will negotiate to impasse in March 2011, and the league then will invoke a provision of federal labor law that allows the owners to impose new rules relating to wages and other terms of employment. Under federal labor law, the rules must be substantially similar to the last offer made by the league.

The union could then strike. The more likely outcome is that NFLPA would decertify and sue the league for violations of the same antitrust laws at issue in the American Needle case. That’s why the union has been writing editorials for guys like Drew Brees in connection with the American Needle case, and it’s why NFL general counsel Jeff Pash tiptoed around my recent questions regarding whether the league believes it’s a “single entity” for labor purposes.

If Cornwell is right — and we’ve got a feeling he is — it means that the threat of a lockout will be used by the league to get the union to accept that final offer in March 2011. Then, if the final offer is rejected, the owners will simply implement the new rules and hunker down for the legal challenge, with the first argument undoubtedly being that the NFL is a single entity that cannot violate the antitrust laws via its 32 franchises.

by Leon07 on May 19, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

If the NCAA wasn't drunk on inebriation

they’d have a college football championship tournament raring to go for 2011. Pro lockout + BCS tournament = the NFL is America’s second favorite sports league.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on May 19, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions  

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