On the Armchair General Manager's Obsession with Draft Value
by Jason Kirk on Apr 26, 2010 7:15 AM EDT
in Editorial
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PrintShort version:
Evaluating a draft immediately after it happens, using mock drafts by websites and magazines as evidence, is as silly as loving or hating a song after only reading its name. We can argue about whether we met the right needs or picked the right players, but let's have something better to go by than what secondhand Todd McShays thought last month. Nobody likes the actual Todd McShay.
Very long version (Falcons stuff towards the end):
Robert Gallery is a can't-miss.
-- Mel Kiper (and everyone else)
Chris Johnson was the 2010 Offensive Player of the Year, and many felt he should've been the MVP too. Here's how consecutive sensible, informed, passionate Titans fans felt immediately after drafting Chris Johnson:
WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Awful.
wow... We never make the pick I think we will.
johnson?
ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
did we become a track team last night?
Well... at least he can return kicks.
wow didn't see taking him with that many ppl left... could've gone with jenkins, merling, sweed, balmer, jackson, hardy, cason
Well, Ainge does not look like that bad of a pick now.
That I don't understand. Could've got him in round 2. Argh.
By no means is this post meant to suggest that keeping up with pre-draft guides is a waste of time, or that enjoying mock drafts is a stupid pursuit. I found draftcountdown.com and others to be extremely helpful while putting together our mock drafts here. It's good to be informed and opinionated and have some bleary sense of who's going when. And by no means is this a Ha Ha Fans Are Dumb post -- I think we all realize hindsight's 20/20. On the contrary, even a brief glance around SB Nation's stable of fan-edited blogs turns up content that rivals any professional sports site or publication. Billion-dollar publications are every bit as capable of whiffing as fans are. For instance,
check out USA Today's assessment of the 2008 draft class. The Chiefs earned the highest grade for drafting Glenn Dorsey, whom the general public seems to consider a bust. Meanwhile the Titans got the league's lowest mark due to reaching for Chris Johnson, the closest thing to a one-man offense since Barry Sanders. If the 2008 draft were done over, GMs would be thumbing each others' eyes to get a crack at drafting Johnson, USA Today be damned.
There aren't many perks when you go 2-14, but choosing first is one of them. In fact, it's the only one. But the Texans are the Texans because they keep shanking the gimmes. Picking the 2005 Heisman Trophy winner was a gimme, a football tap-in. All they had to do was tell Burguieres to jot down one of the most familiar four letters in the state of Texas: B-U-S-H.
-- Gene Wojciechowski (and everyone else)
What I'm arguing against here is using those pre-draft guides and day-after grades as gospel during and after the draft. "Could've got him in round 2" is the most interesting comment from the Titans' thread: Reach! The Titans reached! The fan who made that comment assumed, after having read resources like sportsillustrated.cnn.com, that Chris Johnson would be available later. But for all we know, the very next team may have spent all offseason waiting to snag Chris Johnson. This worldview seems to assume that all 31 other NFL teams were in cahoots and had also agreed with the same free sportsillustrated.cnn.com projection. "My fellow GMs, we've determined Chris Johnson shall be drafted between picks 35 and 40. Anybody who wants him: trade into that range." Does this sound like a strange assumption? Yet we all make it. Does it sound similar to assuming both Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin base their decisions on cranked-out Time magazine editorials? Would we tell Tlaloc, god of storms, that the Weather Channel says it can't rain today?
Good Moves: Taking Mike Williams, the best player in the draft, was a great decision. All of the Lions' draft choices were great.
Bad Moves: None. It's difficult to find any flaws with Detroit's draft picks....
Obviously, Charles Rogers will give Joey Harrington a great target for the next decade. Second round pick OLB Boss Bailey was the best linebacker in the draft.
-- Walterfootball.com on Detroit's 2003 and 2005 drafts. Grade for both drafts: A+ (They've revised both grades: F, D.)
Serious persons admit evaluating a draft seconds after it ends is an exercise. We can express confidence or doubt based on the evidence. And that's it.
In 2010's draft, Jimmy Clausen was drafted #48. But his draft projection provided to the public for free by cbssports.com clearly stated he should be a top ten pick. Apparently cbssports.com's projection didn't square with reality. "My bad," says reality. Jonathan Dwyer fell over five and a half rounds after 32 football-obsessed general managers failed to simply dial up fftoolbox.com's free scouting report. It was sitting right there on the internet the whole time!
To assume mock drafts should provide a script for the actual draft is to think in fantasy football terms. When drafting fantasy players, we have several seasons worth of data to consult. We have a decent idea what we're getting. But with rookies, publications are guessing. And they're guessing with far fewer time, money, access, and expertise resources than NFL GMs have to work with -- and NFL GMs themselves get it wrong all the time.
SB Nation's Raiders blog was in fine company with this assessment. You know who else was impressed by JaMarcus Russell? Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z, a football expert if there ever was one, who gave the Raiders 2007's second-highest draft grade. Who got #1? The Browns. For drafting Brady Quinn. Who else was in the top 5? A certain team that drafted Jamaal Anderson, Chris Houston, and Laurent Robinson. Think about that. Quite possibly the most respected NFL writer ever gave very high marks to Jamaal Anderson, Chris Houston, and Laurent Robinson. What can you do but throw up your hands?
Round 1, pick 2. Everyone thought this was a good idea. Via dailycomedy.com (seriously)
We just signed Colin Peek as an undrafted free agent, which is strange because draftcountdown.com assured us he'd be drafted between rounds 3 and 5. How did that happen? Did no NFL scouts check draftcountdown.com in time? At least Comrade found draftcountdown.com after the draft, smacked his forehead, and hurried to fulfill prophecy by signing Peek, right? I was happy to hear about Peek's signing (because I've seen him play for a national championship team, he bumps the number of drafted Yellow Jackets from 4 up to 4.5 (LA LA LA LA NOT HEARING YOU), he's apparently a barrel of monkeys, and Bama expert Adam assures us he's good), but not because he was ranked a full eleven spots ahead of Jim Dray in the tight end projections. (Who's Jim Dray? Oh, he was a 2010 NFL Draft pick.)
Round 1, pick 3. Everyone thought this was a good idea. Via bengals.com
Jarrett Brown, Javarris James, LeGarrette Blount, Tony Washington, Ciron Black, Brandon Lang, Lindsey Witten, Harry Coleman, Justin Cole, and several others went undrafted despite being projected as mid-rounders. That means their draft rankings based on evaluations by GMs were all about three rounds lower than their rankings based on evaluations by writers.
New England. J.R. Redmond will be the every-down back by Oct. 1. Not bad for the 76th overall pick.
-- Peter King's entire evaluation of New England's draft class that included Tom Brady. Can you blame him?
Jeremy Williams, ranked several rounds ahead of Kerry Meier according to draftcountdown.com, went undrafted. Kerry Meier was drafted. If we'd drafted Jeremy Williams in the 6th round, we would've been happy. Great value! Says right here he was supposed to go in the 4th! But all the NFL GMs who didn't like Williams would've laughed at us for drafting a UFA player.
Our beloved Matt Tennant? 32 NFL teams took a rain check an average of five times each -- apparently none of them have found the free resources available at nfldraftbible.com, where he was projected to go in the 2nd round. You and I were all aboard the Matt Tennant Express as of last week. But Comrade thinks Joe Hawley is better than Matt Tennant. Should we riot on Flowery Branch, or should we find out why Comrade prefers Hawley?
Via thefalcoholic.com
(This was one of the most optimistic comments from the draft that provided Matt Ryan, Curtis Lofton, Sam Baker, Kroy Biermann, Thomas DeCoud, and Harry Douglas -- likely the best draft in team history.)
It's not a mathematical formula. War rooms aren't filled with printouts from espn.com and Madden ratings.
"The shit's chess, not checkers."
Donovan Warren went undrafted despite having an nfl.com pre-draft grade of 7.0. This means the website's staff thought he was as good as Javier Arenas, Jordan Shipley, and Mardy Gilyard, and better than Riley Cooper, Reshad Jones, or Pat Angerer. Corey Peters went in round 3 despite having an nfl.com pre-draft grade of 2.5, which means the website's staff found him to be less valuable than most punters and kickers. Which do we trust more -- nfl.com draft grades or NFL drafts?
We get Dorsey!
i'm crying right now. Happy tears.
God is so good to the Chiefs
It looks like we got Glenn Dorsey... It's hard to be pissed off when I have been calling for Dorsey all morning, but that trade looked awfully good. Still, I am glad we actually took Dorsey. WOOHOO!
I like!
How does this happen? How do highly trained professionals with limitless resources come to different conclusions than fans who read websites that sell ads?
We should draft Glenn Dorsey, not Matt Ryan.
-- Me and almost all of you
(At least, more of you than would admit it. Go dig through your blogs, comments, and forum posts from April 2008. I just did. I wanted Glenn Dorsey and Brian Brohm. Yikes. Maybe we'd just gotten used to bad drafts? Maybe that's why we were pulling so hard for the safe pick instead of Ryan?)
Maybe if someone had called up a few NFL GMs and showed them the free resources of nfldraftdog.com, they could've properly drafted Jevan Snead well before Dan LeFevour instead of not drafting Snead at all?
Jeff Schultz, doing it right. Though he was wrong about the player, he was wrong for a good reason -- not because espn.go.com's draft thing told him what to think. Here's Schultz from today on grading drafts immediately after they happen.
If we'd drafted Everson Griffin or Bruce Campbell in round 3, we would've all been excited. Great value. Got first round talent in round 3, according to my iPhone draft ranker app. Except those guys fell to round 4, meaning they would've still been reaches. Maybe we should inform highly paid team executives, who field teams of scouts that do nothing but break down film all day long, that all these free resources are available to the public?
This is what a bad draft looks like. Our first two picks lasted a total of five seasons in Atlanta. In the first two rounds alone, we missed an entire Pro Bowl starting lineup PLUS 3 Hall of Famers. Imagine if we'd drafted Michael Irvin and Thurman Thomas with our first two picks... The Falcons reached twice! Bad value!
Surely the Falcons scouting department spent less time scouting Corey Peters than nfldraftscout.com did, leading to the Falcons mistakenly drafting him in the incorrect round. The Falcons only personally worked out Peters and analyzed every play of his entire college career -- the internet's anonymous experts, however, were able to formulate their opinions based on who knows what.
Position: HB
College: Utah
Projection: Undrafted free agent
Role: Special teams, practice squad
Some of us have expressed disappointment at the 2010 draft. If you look at the Falcons' 2010 draft class and see the end of the world, especially after the great success of 2008 and strong potential of 2009, then you just aren't a dirty bird yet. It's ok to be new at this, but you really need to toughen up before you go all in -- things have been known to get bleak around here. We saw '88 up above, but go back and look at our 2002 and 2003 drafts. From '70 to '74 we drafted 84 players, one (1 (uno (less than two))) of whom ever made a Pro Bowl. '94 through '97 turned up Travis Hall, Jamal Anderson, and many warm bodies.
Presuming Sean Weatherspoon doesn't convince Mike Johnson and Dominique Franks to force Shann Shillenberger to stab Kerry Meier in the neck at midfield in front of Roger Goodell's children, do you foresee any scenario in which our 2010 haul is anywhere near one of the fifteen worst drafts in Falcons history?
Do you think Comrade & Co. have earned a little patience by now?
This post was mostly inspired by ajc.com commenter types, not the standard Falcoholic commenter. We're very proud of our intelligent readership. And mind you, we absolutely encourage dissent from the team HQ party line when it's merited. Go back and read Dave's work from the valley of the shadow of P*trino if you don't believe me. This isn't about being yes-men and homers. It's about being smart fans who know when to admit we don't know yet.
This post isn't directed at anyone in particular, in case one of our draft-value heads takes offense. We were all stunned and initially dismayed by the Corey Peters pick, for example, as most of us had never heard of him and everything we turned up suggested he may have been available later.
But we started doing our homework and came to understand the reasons for the pick... Defensive line depth wins Super Bowls. We don't yet know what we have in Peria Jerry. Jonathan Babineaux can't do it alone. Vance Walker is a great backup, but is he a starter? Peters led SEC DTs in tackles for loss and earned academic honors. JCush discovered Cleveland was very, very interested in Peters and was drafting right behind us. Dave suggested Peters has the physique to also play defensive end. Still though... why take him in the 3rd? He may have been around in the 5th, according to pre-draft projections.
Everybody's got a newspaper draft board until they get punched in the mouth, as the champ would say. Defensive tackles were flying out the door -- thirteen in the first 3 rounds -- and we had to pull the trigger.
That's the kind of thing that mock drafts, projections, grades, and ratings made by fans and publications can't predict.
And that's what I'm getting at, I guess.
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Great Post!
I, Like many others sit back and watch the draft unfold. Each of us have our own visions on who that pick should be. It’s what makes the draft entertaining when we sit back and second guess our teams, or opinions. Topics are always bound for debate, and the ill faded feeling of that selection always sits in our stomachs for a few minutes, hours, even days.
I was one of those individuals who opted for Dorsey over Ryan. My thoughts? Well draft defense! Dorsey in the 1st, and Lofton, Baker, and Flowers in the 2nd. From having watch Matt Ryan play at BC, I wasn’t totally blown away. I wondered if the Falcons made the right choice until he completed his first pass for 62 yds.
No one truly knows what the team is thriving for. I assumed the Falcons were looking to fill their immediate needs with a LB, DE, OL, S, K, RB. I was completely off. Now, when I sit back and think about last year and the issues, I understand. #1 and #2 draft picks, out for the year. CB’s going down often, battered linemen missing playing time. This was all about depth. Finding apt players that can fill a need.
"And their 1st pick in the 2010 NFL draft...The Atlanta Falcons select Sean Weatherspoon, LB Missouri."
Loved this draft.
People are up in arms because they’re not familiar with this particular creature: the draft of a good team.
Wouldn’t change a single pick. You now know a lot more about the Falcons than you did yesterday (like, for instance the team thinks Sid and Beer will step up, or one of our DT’s is cause for concern, either Jerry’s injury or Bab’s weed thing).
Looking forward to these guys taking the field (I love Dimitroff hasn’t touched the Big 10 since he got here. Clearly the mark of a sound football mind. Also I hear this Peters kid had the best stats of any DT last season in a little old conference that prides itself on defense, the SEC)
Maybe there is no Heaven. Or maybe this is all pure gibberish — a product of the demented imagination of a lazy drunken hillbilly with a heart full of hate who has found a way to live out where the real winds blow — to sleep late, have fun, get wild, drink whisky, and drive fast on empty streets with nothing in mind except falling in love and not getting arrested...Res ipsa loquitur. Let the good times roll.
by iRonin on Apr 26, 2010 8:08 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
a well-written article
great job, Jason!
I thought from the very beginning that no way even 50% of our mock drafts would be true. We all knew from the very beginning that TD &Co are a top-tier scouting team who make their picks based on the need, and not public opinion. The perception of a need has a lot to do with evaluation of each player. And it is impossible for us, ordinary humans, to know how each player is developing, especially in the case of players on the IR.
We did get the idea in it’s very sketchy form, when correctly picked Weatherspoon (I was among those, however, who thought we’d pick Pouncey), but that was about it.
And imagine if Jerry and Moore are at least one-half of what they should be based on what we feel about TD’s scouting talents! It would be an equivalent of having potentially game-changing 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder in our lineup!
I worry about the ability of team personnel to keep our key weapons healthy though. Matt Ryan, Sam Baker, and both of our top picks from the previous draft spent were either on IR or missed several games. Lets keep our fingers crossed that every one of the new players make it through the training camps in one piece.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Brrrrrrrrilliant!
*In an English accent.
I must agree with this article, but does that mean that since I like the Sean Weatherspoon pick I could be wrong?…
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Fixed, thank you.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
Bravissimo!
What a well researched and thoughtful post.
Jason for president!
That was well written. I’m sure our bust/success % will get better as we take this ride with Comrade. We all know not all these guys will turn out to be productive starters but if we look back over the last three years we see there has been some surprise talent find themselves on the FALCONS. My prediction is that one of these UFA’s will go on to be a pro-bowler.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Apr 26, 2010 9:53 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I honestly don't get into mock drafts
And I could care less if Dimitroff drafts the way of on personal intuition or listening to the media or fans. As long as we win games and win often it won’t matter. But even when Rich McKay was here (and he has 15 years general manger exp) he made some questionable moves (jimmy williams, houston, anderson, keeping to many old veterans) and he made some good moves. We as fans can always make it interesting to speculate and be glad to be wrong if the move works.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
oh i wouldn't have taken a d tackle in round 3
will be glad to be proven wrong
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
great article
I said this in another post, but I think there are 2 perspectives on a draft. The first is the philosophy of building a team and which positions you selected (are we filling positions of need? what is this team going to look like?)… the second is the actual players you took and how well they can play those positions (is player x a better defensive tackle than player y? does this guy fit our scheme?).
The first is something I think fans can comment on with a little more insight… the second is something we have no clue about, and that’s basically what you are saying above. I simply can’t comment on whether, say, Peters was the right DT to get, because i haven’t watched every single play of his college career, i haven’t interviewed him, and I don’t understand all the ins and outs of what kind of defense it is the Falcons want to have and how he fits into that. I have ZERO experience as a talent evaluator. Thomas Dimitroff can’t tell me how to do my job, so i shouldn’t be telling him how to do his.
What i can do is look at the team, see who is and isn’t producing, see what our holes are, and give some semi-intelligent opinions on which areas we need to address in the draft. I can look at how teams have been built in the past to see what does and doesn’t work when it comes to building a team. I still don’t know as much as the experts, but i’m a little closer to being competent in discussing the philosophy of building a team because it doesn’t require as much homework.
And my personal opinions is that I like the areas we addressed a lot. Was Peters the best DT to get at that point? I have no idea. But did we need a DT to make this football team better? Absolutely. Were the two O lineman we got the right guys? No clue. But I can say that the O Line was becoming a weak spot for this time and had to be strengthened.
I can say that teams stand or fall based on how good their lines are – it starts there. That, in my opinion, is the smartest way to build a team. And in this draft, I see our GM and head coach adopting that philosophy and basing their drafting decisions on it. All I can ask is that they take the right approach to building a team and that they’ve done their homework. Up to this point, I have no reason to doubt that either is the case.
by cheshire falcon on Apr 26, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pretty much nailed it
How people can even pretend to know the best players available is beyond me. Thats why the NFL draft, just like College signing day is all hype. The pool of talent is astounding with 117 D1 schools. Then toss in D2 and D3. Many of guys can really play but who would know it unless you devoted your life to it. Even if a GM know pretty much everything there is to know about a player’s intangibles, you’re still really just taking an educated guess. Some will be right, some will be wrong
As for me, I only voice my pleasure or displeasure with a pick who I’ve actually seen play multiple times. Alright, Colin Peek! While I’m at it, I’ll pat myself on the back now for saying Matt Ryan was a good pick when every one else was bashing him. Of course I also liked the Deangelo hall pickup…that didn’t turn out so well
D Hall worked out for a while... he was still our best defender when we wisely let him go
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
Awesome Read...
I agree with so much said.
Seeing into the future is the hardest thing to do. Hindsight is perfect 20/20 vision.
It’s very easy to blast what has happened in years past. It’s not so easy to evaluate recent drafts at all. They call it a learning curve for a reason. It takes a little time to get adjusted to a new scheme and what not.
The link to past drafts, wow. It was a mixture of memories and “who the heck is that?” Haha. Good times.
Excellent work
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Love it!
It puts me in mind of my 8-yr old (autistic) daughter philosophy when it comes to board games.
“You take what you get, and don’t pitch a fit!”
This made me laugh by Dr.Z regarding the Randy Moss trade
“If New England cakewalks into the Super Bowl on Brady to Moss fireworks, I’ll be the first to tell you. "
Confessions of a brilliant mind.
Great post, Jason. There are a lot of bad memories in it.
I remember standing on the edge of a brave new world as our new bookends, Aundray "I can’t shoot anyone without my hat" Bruce and Marcus "Who?" Cotton suited up the first time. Reviews were final by the end of the first half. Chris Miller was going to be the savior – one of a long, long line of them. I have a pretty, white Joey Harrington jersey hanging in the closet. Not a bite on Ebay for $3.50. We should retire #13 before it happens to anyone else. I’m also the guy who said (in my outside voice), "Terry Pendleton? Just what we need: another washed-up utility infielder."
I shouted, "Oh for the love of crap!" three times during this draft and, "WHO?" twice. This should make us all more comfortable with TD’s evaluation.
—AOb
How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
Excellent article
It’s great to hear a voice of reason through all of the griping that took place over the weekend.
Glorious Piece of Writing
Brother, it took a lot of intestinal fortitude to lay it all out on the line like you did in this draft memoir. You have earned my respect.
slowly looks left… slowly turns right… slowly looks straight in your face, starts nodding, and extends a hand
I read it in the papers, I saw it on TV. I guess there'll be one empty seat, when I wrestle at Wimblelee. I used to tear my shirt, but now you've torn my heart. I knew you were a Hulkamaniac, right from the very start.
You were my friend. I'll see you again. When the Hulkster comes to Heaven, we'll tag up again.
TUNES UP THE BAND
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
Bravo
Thank you (and Franky) for the swift kick in the teeth from a little thing called “reality”.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Nicely done
Probably embarassed a few folks too. I keep quiet after the draft because I like many others, place my trust in the GM to do all the hard work and make the tough decisions. If anything, I enjoy the drama of draft day and the board movement, personal stories, and of course, the madden game likenesses of the rookies released with their new jerseys.
Someone ought to forward this to that Raider’s blogger, Raymond St. Martin. He was so sure that Russell would work out and based that on the success of Leinart and Young. Looking back, I’m not sure you could author an intentional joke of a post that would look more ridiculous than his.
Believe it or not, almost everyone was sure about JaMarcus.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
You speak da truth mayne!!
Excellent article
Just like the Raiders made “the only pick they could have” in ’07, the Rams did the same thing. Bradford has “bust” written on his forehead, and the g**d*** Panthers just got the best qb in the 2nd round.
"That's my teammate, man... That's my quarterback"
by TurnerTheBurner on Apr 26, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
I could care less about Clausen
The Panthers were in the market for some QB. My train of thinking is watching Greg Hardy lining up 2 times a year against our “O”.
Im hoping he’s a back up for his career now. Funny how things work eh?
"And their 1st pick in the 2010 NFL draft...The Atlanta Falcons select Sean Weatherspoon, LB Missouri."
Draft was not exciting - and that was a GOOD thing for us D Birds
Corey Peters is just what the Doctor Ordered: Big, Strong, Smart. He and Ovie will be able to talk politics, or something.
And we scored Holla McGhee as an UFA? We get Finneran’s replacement who now has AWESOME motivation material? We score Mike Johnson with one of the final picks of the 3rd – a guy who has been fighting off Auburn, LSU, Florida DL’s for years?
AND Franks? We finally get a speedy corner who is taller than my 5’0" mom.
No, we didn’t get any of the SEXY picks – we got the picks who are likely to be fixtures for a while, and not stir up trouble.
Holla!
by Mnemonic on Apr 26, 2010 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really need to get out of the habit of calling Holla McGhee by his government name
Between Holla and Bear Woods we’re becoming the most distinguished sports team in all the land
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
by Jason Kirk on Apr 26, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
fantastic read
a nice touch of humor while putting everything into perspective.
Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don't like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that. - Bill Shankly
by armchair quarterback on Apr 26, 2010 6:57 PM EDT reply actions
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