The NFC South Anomaly: Should we dare not overlook the Buccaneers?

by brotherbrown on Apr 18, 2010 3:01 PM EDT

What is the one thing about the NFC South since it's inception that gives it the identity that we all know and love?

The team the finishes in last place, wins the division the next season (with the exception of the 2008 season - if the Saints could have completed the home divisional sweep against Carolina - every team would have been over .500!)

Courtesy of Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFC_South

Worst-to-first pattern

Since the alignment in 2002, the team that finished in last place in the division the previous year went on to make a postseason appearance in the following season, with the last place team winning the division in 6 of the past 7 seasons:[1]

Carolina finished last in 2002 (7-9) and finished first in 2003 (11-5)
Atlanta finished last in 2003 (5-11) and finished first in 2004 (11-5)
Tampa Bay finished last in 2004 (5-11) and finished first in 2005 (11-5)
New Orleans finished last in 2005 (3-13) and finished first in 2006 (10-6)
Tampa Bay finished last in 2006 (4-12) and finished first in 2007 (9-7)
Atlanta finished last in 2007 (4-12) and finished second with a wild-card berth in 2008 (11-5)[2]
New Orleans finished last in 2008 (8-8) and finished first in 2009 (13-3)

Interestingly, no team in the NFC South has earned back-to-back postseason appearances since the division's creation in 2002 (For example, Atlanta and Carolina made the playoffs in 2008, but both teams failed to do so in 2009.)

If this pattern continues (and why wouldn't it since it's always have defied odds inexplicably). Tampa Bay should AT least make a wild card appearance, perhaps even win the Division for the third time.

But wait a minute? We have the Defending Super Bowl Champions New Orleans Saints, with Drew Brees and the High Octane Offense of weapons of mass destruction, playmaking defense. - Our Beloved Atlanta Falcons and our improving offense under a prodigy Matty Ice, finesse defense, and shutdown special teams coverage - Or even the dark horse of the Carolina Panthers, the game manager Matt Moore, and a pretty impressive but solid defense, even they should have a better chance than the 3-13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I mean seriously... There is nothing that scares you about Tampa. A rookie head coach in 2009 and his make-shift team didn't make a lot of noise. Struggled on offense and totally collapsed on defense, they struggled to an 0-7 start. Josh Freeman showed some promise but doesn't look elite. Defense is still in transition, and there is almost no signs to suggest that they have the cohesion and destiny to make any noise in 2010 versus the stiff competition in the NFC South with the likes of NO and ATL.

But it's happened before. And Tampa Bay has 11 draft picks! (the same amount we had in 2008 - although they don't have Dimitroff like we do but who knows?). They have a shot to get some quality players, and they pick high in every round. Something about the NFC South is very unkind to teams that win the division like the Saints (they miss the playoffs next season). They Saints could suffer catastrophic injuries, the Falcons and Panthers may find some way to underachieve with everyone playing up to the competition on paper. The Bucs will have an easier schedule hosting the Rams (we all will face them), Lions, and Redskins, versus the Vikes, Pack, Eagles, Cowboys etc. No one gave us a chance in 2004 and 2008 but somehow we climbed out of the cellar from the previous year. New Orleans overcame Katrina in just one year with a total rebuild.

What will be the story for the 2010 Buccanneers? How will they even have a shot at just a 5 or 6 seed wild card? (I do wish I could get some fans from Buc' Em to comment of this Fan Post but I don't know how to do that) Your Thoughts

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

Rec'd

Every year people look at the schedules and pencil in wins before the draft takes place. The truth is that no one can predict the strength of a team so early, and there’s a lot still to take place before the season starts. With only sixteen games in a season (hopefully more including playoffs), there is no room to overlook anyone.

by orion12 on Apr 18, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

How did 9-7 win the division in 2007? Geez.

Lest you forget, the Bucs were……8-8 in 2008? Something along those lines. They weren’t awful, but they weren’t fantastic.

Sure, they’ve changed coaches and QBs and all that, but some of that old talent is still there, and if they can get a couple game changers in the draft, that’ll be all she wrote for highstepping over them this season.

Fortunately, I know Smitty won’t allow the Birds to make a mistake like overlooking them, so we should be alright! :)

"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, to either side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham

by Zippo729 on Apr 18, 2010 6:15 PM EDT reply actions

Tampa Bay was 9-7

They were 9-3 beating the Saints in Tampa before losing their last four games to Carolina, Atlanta, and at home to San Diego and Oakland for some odd reason.

by brotherbrown on Apr 18, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

in 2008 I mean

by brotherbrown on Apr 18, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Good post!

You took the words out of my head and made them make sense. Wow, 11 picks, yikes. The reason why I am most concerned is this; Raheem Morris is a passionate and optimistic coach in spite of the lowsey ownership group that employs him. He believes they can win even without the support of the brass. Still all that being said we will still whoop em.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Apr 18, 2010 7:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Thanks Hawk

I think your right about the coaches.
I think the NFC South may have some very good gems for coaches. We all like Mike Smith, Sean Peyton has proven himself a genius, and John Fox according to some Panthers fans drafts talent pretty well.

by brotherbrown on Apr 18, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

They almost beat us in Atlanta, and they beat the Super Bowl champs in New Orleans.

This division is up for grabs. Rec.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on Apr 18, 2010 9:38 PM EDT reply actions

That is true.

It’s the any given Sunday routine.
Somehow I feel this coming season will be a very competitive season among everyone.
Could we see a repeat of 2008 in our division?

by brotherbrown on Apr 18, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I could see

the Saints not making the playoffs next year. Think about it, Brees almost threw for record setting passing yardage in 08 so its not like in 09 a juggernaut of an offense came out of nowhere, if my memory serves me correct they were ranked 20th or worst in passing, rushing, and total defense in 09 but returned alot of turnovers for Tds and caused alot of turnovers in general. Take away some of those defensive tds and some of those lucky “bounces”(like the Washington kicker missing that chip shot) and you’ve got a 10-6, 9-7 team. Guess it wouldn’t surprise me if we crowned a NFC South champion other the Saints or Falcons next year.

by gritzblitz on Apr 18, 2010 11:54 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah Darren "Turnover MAchine" Sharper isn't there anymore lol

I LOVE a good, competitive division as long as my Dirty Birds are standing on top of the pile at the end of the year. Rec’d again.

by FLA_Falcon on Apr 18, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions

That's news to me

I thought nothing was going on with him, and that he would eventually re-sign?

As for the Bucs. The way their heading right now, I don’t see it happening. Remember, we went out and got a stud for a RB, and had an AWESOME draft. The Offense carried the team that year. Tampa right now does not have the same level of offense as Atlanta, let alone New Orleans. And there defense is nothing compared to what it used to be. In both 08 and 09, our defense gave up 325 points. I think there was a 30 point difference from 08 to 09 on offense (less in 09, obviously). With some of the close games we had ( New Orleans, New York, and Carolina) that right there is a 2-4 game differential. The difference between 9-7 and missing the playoffs, and 11-5 to 13-3 and making the playoffs and possibly winning the division.

Tampa Bay has not done anything in free agency, and they could have gone after some guys with there 11 picks. They should have gone after at least an established WR. I think they will definitely be competitive next year, but not so much as to make a run for the division, or even a wild card spot. Somewhere between 6-8 wins.

Carolina is in even worse shape. If not for there nasty duo of RBs, they wouldn’t have a chance. They are lacking draft picks, and released a number of veterans. Bite the bullet and trade a RB for some extra picks. Otherwise they are at best 2 years out of returning to a winning team.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Apr 19, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

in 2007

Our offense was horrible.
2008, it was impressively improved.
Surely the draft of 11 players could allow them to make some vast improvements on either side of the ball.
I don’t disagree with you about the Bucs not being able to do it.
But we’ve seen weird things, and there are chances for the Bucs to shine.
It looks bleak because of the competition.
I still wouldn’t overlook CAR either. The are better than you think.

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions

By no means am I saying we should overlook them. The games in this division are always close. But there are some key differences to our 4-12 and their 4-12

We carried over some players from 07 to 08. White, Norwood, Jenkins, and Abraham. White had 1200 yards with crappy QBs, Norwood when healthy can break one anytime. We had outstanding picks in the 08 draft to fill the Offensive needs, and aquired Michael Turner. The front office filled in all the gaps and got “lucky” in the draft. I say got lucky because how often do you get that many draft picks who play so well, so fast.

The Bucs have a talented quarterback, and a decent RB in Cadillac Williams. They do not have any real threats at WR though. Any team with a decent defense can stack the box and blitz to knock them off their game. WRs take time to develop, reason being that they should pick up an established guy with a few years under his belt, and pick some in the draft. Roddy White looked like a bust at first, but then suddenly broke out.

They will have plenty off opportunities to get some good defensive players in this draft, but how many will be first year impact players. They will compete, but ultimately won’t be good enough.

Williams and Stewart will literally be carrying the Panthers on their backs this year. Limited low draft picks, and they let loose a lot of players. They are going to have to pick up guys somewhere, and by that time, all the best ones will be gone. Steve Smith is still a great receiver, but there is no #2, and a young QB who benefits from a nasty running game. There Offense will be good, but still relies completely on the running game. If one of those guys gets hurt, it could be rough.

The Bucs could be contenders in another year, Carolina 2 years.

by Whyte Bler 000 on Apr 19, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Well you make a good point

But IMO, WR tend to develop pretty fast. Even in the Anemic Niners offense and the hold out of Michael Crabtree, he showed signs of impressiveness. Calvin Johnson was an immediate impact for the Lions and arguably their best receiver. Desean Jackson did the same for the eagles in the first year. And our Harry Douglas showed shades of eliteness.

You have to find the right QB and system for WR to make an impact. They can bust though. But Defensive players ten to take longer to develop.

The Bucs do pick high in the draft and could pick that impact receiver.

I wouldn’t underestimate Matt Moore, though I haven’t seen him play, in time he too could be like Delhomme when he was good.

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Bucs

I don’t think they’ll be quite ready to compete for the division next year, but I do agree that they will be much improved. They’re almost guaranteed to get Gerald McCoy at #3, and I’ve been seeing tons of Mocks giving them Golden Tate (who I love) at #35. They also have the #42 pick, and could go OL/CB/S/DE. That would be 3 huge holes filled with quality prospects. Unless all these draft picks bust out, or Freeman just doesn’t have “it”, they’re probably gonna turn it around quick…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Apr 20, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

'07 Falcons average margin of victory: -9.7

’09 Tampa Bucks average margin of victory: -9.8

Crappy teams get better. It happens every single year. Don’t be shocked when it happens again.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on Apr 19, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions

That is very true

Maybe last year was the rebuilding year, and this year will be their contending year. Because the Bucs aren’t doing much to our eyes, who’s to say some players and coaches will over look them, especially if the Bucs have an easy schedule to start and they go 4-1, we’ll be saying, oh they had an easy schedule they are pretenders.

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I just assumed since he hasn't signed yet

and the fact that he seemed more than a little miffed about not getting resigned right away that he most likely wasn’t gonna be wearin the black and gold this year

by FLA_Falcon on Apr 19, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Another part of it

Was that the Saints were extremely lucky.

I don’t mean this in a bad way, or to belittle their accomplishments. Ever great team has had luck on their side.

How many FGs were missed by the other team that would have iced it? The crazy Interception, fumble recovery and TD? Last year, the Saints were pretty much destined to win. I could see the luck running out and the Saints going down with another team taking over.

Plus the whole, 4th place team in the playoffs thing.

Never assume skill at bouncing a ball makes you smarter than the guy who built the court.

When there's a WILL there's a WAY

by Willgfass on Apr 27, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

sound very plausible

Defense is an issue, and they will have a Target on their back

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I wouldnt count out the Buc's

They werent as bad a team as their record last year.They were really just a few good players and a little experience away from being a decent team. If it wasnt for the fact the Saints are so good they would have a chance at the division title this year.

World Champions at last

by mississippisaintsfan on Apr 19, 2010 6:50 AM EDT reply actions

Streaks have to be broken at some point.

But it definitely gives us all something to ponder. Is this the year the streak is broken? As a Falcons fan, I hope so. Rec’d

"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham

by sportsfan4life2012 on Apr 19, 2010 9:15 AM EDT reply actions

Great post

I don’t think we can afford to overlook anyone in that division.

by Dave Choate on Apr 19, 2010 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks Dave

I’m glad I finally made a good post. Almost no one noticed my other one.

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, don't sweat it

I spent the first year and a half on this site writing to nobody.

by Dave Choate on Apr 19, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I saw that in the archives, but you hung in there and that's admirable.

by brotherbrown on Apr 19, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah man

Ive posted maybe like 5 times and had all of about 8 comments lol. I read everything just dont want to feel like I’m flooding the site with comments on every single post if I don’t have something useful to add. On that note sorry Dave for my poor judgement a few days ago.

by FLA_Falcon on Apr 19, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

HEY

You just have to act really retarded and, get drunk, and spell stuff horribly. It seems to work for me, HA

Weatherspoon1stFalconsPick???

by JJWatt1stfalconspick on Apr 20, 2010 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

streaks are made to be broken...

Falcons have back to back winning season and the Bucs will still suck in ’10

by Spencaman on Apr 20, 2010 6:40 PM EDT reply actions

You get some Buc 'Em readers to comment by asking us ;-)

I don’t see this happening this year, though. I’d be thrilled if it does happen, but there are too many holes on the roster and rookies don’t come in and consistently produce often enough for the draft (now 12 picks, by the way) to fill those holes immediately. Over time, I’m sure we’ll be back to being contenders, but as a Bucs fan I’d expect 5-7 wins and I’d be very happy with 7+ wins.

There is an outside shot, but a lot of things need to go exactly right: One of Reggie Brown, Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall needs to really step up their game and start producing well, the DT we draft at #3 needs to immediately produce, whatever WR we get in the draft needs to be an immediate quality starter, Sean Jones needs to do well at strong safety, Jeremy Trueblood needs to stop killing drives with stupid penalties, the run game needs to improve and we need a pass-rushing DE to stand up eiher from what we have now or from the draft.

What I do see happening is the Saints faltering. Their defense ran on turnovers last year, and it’s hard to sustain that. They also won a bunch of very close games that could’ve swung the other way (Dolphins, Redskins). I’d really expect the Falcons or the Panthers to take the division, because I think the Falcons can bounce back from an injury-marred season last year, and for the Panthers Matt Moore really impressed me last year.

by Sander on Apr 21, 2010 7:40 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs

Yeah every team has issues

But I could vaguely see your team winning up to 10 games if they are truly good enough, but they should at least win six. That’s how wild it is.

by brotherbrown on Apr 21, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I cant see more than 9

I definitly think the Bucs will improve. It would be hard for them not too. haha, but i can see 8-8 very attainable but no more than 9 and thats not enough to make the playoffs. Not in the NFC atleast. AFC the supposed “powerhouse” division had the Jets make the playoffs @ 9-7.

by hadayia on Apr 26, 2010 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions