The Great Falcons Roster Breakdown: Cornerbacks And Safeties Edition
by Dave Choate on Apr 15, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintWe're almost to the end of this little series of breakdowns. I hope that it's changed your life forever, because frankly, that's why we're writing them.
Obviously, cornerback and safety is a polarizing position on the Falcons' roster. You need look no further than Brian Williams, the savvy veteran cornerback who split our camp between those who thought Brian Williams was our best cornerback and those who thought he was our worst. Either way, it has inspired a lot of debate in the last couple of years, and that's something fans thrive on them. We owe them our discussions, if not our gratitude for those passes that sailed way the hell over those heads.
To break down this controversial position, I have enlisted the lovely and talented orang3b, who you may know as "that guy who uses a lot of stats." He'll be followed by yours truly, Dave "The Falconer" Choate, a guy who has tried to pitch in on every single one of these. Frankly, the effect on my sanity has been troubling.
Follow after the jump to see what this dynamic duo has to say.
orang3b says:
2009 Grades
Cornerbacks:
Chris Houston – The man that everybody loved to hate. While I was one of his biggest defenders,
Brian Williams – Some people think we lost our best Cornerback when he got hurt against the Bears. I disagree. He simply was not good last year. Just go back and watch the highlights from Week 2 (CAR) or Week 3 (NE). Yes, opposing QB’s Yards per Attempt skyrocketed from 6.94 YPA all the way to 8.13 YPA after he went on IR. But the team faced a much tougher slate of Passing Offenses after that point – five Top 12 teams in Passing DVOA, counting the Saints twice (all losses). Once the schedule eased up (NYJ, BUF, TB), the Pass Defense suddenly looked good again. The injury to Brian Williams was not the reason the Defense fell apart. Grade: D+
Brent Grimes – Really, I have no idea how to grade Grimes. He ended up with 6 INT’s, plenty of highlights, and the best charting numbers of any Cornerback on the team. He also looked thoroughly confused on his assignments plenty of times, had the most Missed Tackles of the team’s D-backs (10), was picked on by opposing QB’s (highest Target Percentage of team’s CB’s) and was yanked in and out of the line-up by the coaches. But his fairly good overall charting numbers, combined with low expectations and league minimum salary ($385,000) make me want to bump this a bit higher than I originally intended. He certainly provided plenty of bang for the buck. Grade: A-
Christopher Owens – He’s a big bundle of potential and promise. He only got significant snaps starting in Week 12, but generally handled himself well when he finally got his chance. He had a very good Completion Percentage allowed (56.0%), but his Yards per Completion allowed was higher than you’d want (even if you exclude the 65 yard TD against the Jets). A pretty good showing from a 3rd Round Rookie, if you ask me. Grade: B
Chevis Jackson – He had a specific role, and he did it well. His numbers from PFF don’t look like anything special (72.7% Completion Percentage Allowed; 9.0 Yards per Completion – shorter because he was always in the slot), but consider that he was tied (with Nnamdi Asomugha) for the best Stop Rate on completed passes. Basically, the polar opposite of
Tye Hill – Though it was no fault of his own, he was set up to be a disappointment before he even stepped onto the field. Considering the fact that Dimitroff similarly stole Domonique Foxworth away for a 7th Round pick just a year earlier, then add in the fact that he was a former 1st Round pick himself, we as Falcons fans had unrealistically high expectations for Hill. What was his fault, though, was his terrible play when he finally did make it onto the field. I can understand bringing him along slowly – Foxworth also didn’t get major playing time until Week 8 in 2008 – but he was easily the team’s worst Cornerback last year (and that’s saying something, considering this ragtag bunch). His low point was Week 12 against
Safeties:
Thomas DeCoud – Simply a revelation. By my charting, he didn’t allow a completed pass until the 2nd Quarter of Week 5 (PFF said he allowed a catch in Week 2 to Steve Smith; I blamed it on Brian Williams). Of Safeties that played 60% of their team’s snaps, he was #11 (of 55) in Completion Percentage Allowed. Because he was usually playing deep though, when he was beaten, he was really beaten (19.0 Yards per Completion Allowed, with only a 7% Stop Rate on Completed Passes --PFF grades him even better in Run Support, though. He was the #6 Safety in their Tackling Inefficiency Rating (he didn’t miss many tackles – Coleman was also in the Top 25). And we all remember his delayed blitz Sack of Brees in the MNF game in
Erik Coleman – He was great in Run Defense, with 31 total Stops (#6 Safety) and a 35% Stop Rate (Stops per Solo Tackle – #14 Safety), according to PFF (I’m not 100% sure what their definition of a Stop is, other than "offensive failure"). But he was borderline terrible in coverage – 6 TD’s allowed (worst on the team, and tied for the worst Safety in the league). Pass Defense is so much more important than Run Defense in today’s NFL that I had to dock him some. This is the second year in a row his overall numbers have been below average, and the team really needs William Moore to be ready to challenge him for the starting spot. Grade: C-
William Moore – Grade: Incomplete
Dave Choate says:
Coming into 2009, I thought our secondary was the weakest link on the entire roster. In 2010, you can still make that argument again. Should you? Not if you're a betting man.
Why, you ask? Read on.
Cornerbacks
CB Dunta Robinson, Starter: This is a tough one, because my experience with Dunta Robinson is limited. What the numbers tell us, however, is painfully obvious.
Robinson appears to be a cornerback in decline. You can argue that factors such as motivation, injury and defensive scheming were what sapped him of his effectiveness, and that the Falcons will be able to address those issues. Maybe you're right, and maybe you should get out of my head!
But somehow I don't think so. Somehow, I can't shake the nagging feeling that Dunta Robinson is never going to be an elite option again. I can't convince myself that Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith have suddenly developed an inability to judge talent, so I must assume that they view him as a stopgap top option and a long-term solid starter. He just doesn't have the tackle numbers and especially the interception numbers over the last few years to be considered as anything more than that.
Because he hasn't played a snap for the Falcons yet, I'm going to give him a grade of incomplete. I hope he exceeds my expectations by a long shot, but right now I think we need to temper what we think Dunta will do to a reasonable facsimile of an above average cornerback.
Grade: INC
CB Chris Owens, Starter: Unlike orang3b, I'm not going to write about Chris Houston, because he's no longer with the team. That dog is done hunting, mon-cig-nore. Instead, I'm going to split you down the middle by listing Chris Owens as a starter. Fun!
Out of all the cornerbacks on the roster, I have the most faith in Chris Owens. He's not the most physically gifted (Brent Grimes), he's not the most experienced (Brian Williams), and he's not the most Chevis Jacksony (Chevis Jackson). What he possesses, however, is the best pure coverage potential on this roster, outside of Dunta Robinson regaining his early form. Owens is very intelligent and eager to learn, and he's got enough quickness and agility to keep up with his man. Is he a long-term "#1?" No way. Is he a long-term starter, and potentially a very good one?
Absolutely.
Grade: B
CB Brent Grimes, Nickel: Ah yes, the freakishly athletic one.
What Grimes brings to the table is the ability to change the course of the game in one fell swoop. You saw it on his gravity-defying pick of Drew Brees, but that was not an isolated incident. He led the team in interceptions in 2009, and he's actually done pretty well in coverage through his brief Falcons career.
Given that, why would I list him at nickel? Simply put, I want to see him pick off more passes, and I think the Falcons have a huge crush on Owens. At the nickel, Grimes can spend less time focusing on pure coverage and more time lunging towards the ball. He could legitimately exceed his six interceptions there.
But if he does end up starting? Well, he's a very talented young cornerback and I have a lot of confidence in him. Right now, he's probably the team's second best corner, and he's a guy I want around for years to come.
Grade: B+
CB Brian Williams, Backup: I'm not going to beat the horse that orang3b already killed, but Williams was not our best cornerback in 2009. Not even close. He looked good in the first couple of games of the season, but then ineffectiveness and injury crippled the rest of his season.
Williams is kind of like Mike Peterson: A Mike Smith guy who brings a lot of character and savvy to a team. As a backup, he's very valuable. As a starter, he's baffling. His coverage skills are slipping as his legs begin to fail him, and he doesn't play the ball well enough to make up for that.
If the team is smart, they'll maximize his potential by playing him on a limited basis, where he can do some damage against lesser receivers and against the run. He's still a valuable leader for the younger guys in our secondary. Of course, if the team drafts a young corner, he ought to be the first one to go.
Grade: D+
CB Chevis Jackson, Backup: I honestly thought Chevis would have a starting job by now, but I am occasionally wrong.
Jackson plays very well in a nickel role, which he could be bumped from now that we have more starting-caliber cornerbacks than we have spots to start them in. Jackson plays the pass in a heads-up fashion and tackles well enough to earn playing time. He's still reasonably young, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that he'd be the first one out the door if the Falcons invested a high draft pick in a cornerback. Maybe I'm just paranoid—I hope so—and Jackson will be around for a long time yet.
Grade: B-
Safeties
I'm only going to cover three players here, because it is now 1 a.m. Ask me for my feeling on our current backups in the comments and I'll definitely let you know.
FS Thomas DeCoud, Starter: All you need to know about Thomas DeCoud is that no less an authority than Mike Smith declared him the team's defensive MVP for 2009. He's got such tremendous coverage instincts for a safety that it's little surprise the team elected to move Erik Coleman over to SS last year, and we'd remember his season even more fondly if he hadn't bobbled a couple of potential interceptions early in the season.
Given the scarcity of top-flight talent at the position in the NFL, it wouldn't surprise me if DeCoud starts turning some heads nationally in 2010. If he can hold on to a couple more picks, snatch up a few more tackles and otherwise continue to do what he's been good at all along, DeCoud's going to have a very nice season. I think we can all be happy with that.
Grade: A
SS Erik Coleman, Starter: Great against the run, terrible against the pass.
If this sounds like the second coming of Brian Williams to you.....well, Coleman's younger. That's about all he's got going for him, though. Given that the concerns with William Moore center around his pass coverage and we already know Coleman's an inferior option when it comes to that, he's going to face an uphill battle for the job he's held over the last couple of seasons.
Of course, the principal advantage to playing strong safety is that you're supposed to do better against the run, so he's got enough value that he's unlikely to disappear from the safety rotation entirely. Still, he shouldn't be starting if William Moore is healthy and vaguely competent.
Grade: C
S William "C4" Moore, Backup: We know little about Moore, because he ended up missing almost the entire season due to injury. That nickname, though? That's because he can blow people up. Look for him to seriously challenge Coleman for a starting job.
Grade: INC
As always, leave your thoughts in the comments.
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Comments
I wouldn't judge last years secondary prefromance too harshly
due to our rather anemic pass rush. Combine the loss of Jerry and Abraham’s off year, and it is no wonder that our talented but young secondary struggled at times. Without consistent pressure on the opposing QBs we could have Deion Sanders and Ronny Lott back there and they’d still struggle. Sacks cure a lot of secondary ills.
If we can hopefully avoid the injury bug this year and have a healthy pass rush, I think we haven enough talent in the secondary to make a run at the playoffs.
C, but so much potential all over the place it makes me wake up in the morning and clap my hands.
Nice work fellas. o3b, can we learn more about your charting techniques? You’re a stats animal.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
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techniques?
Just re-watch the game with a notebook & pen in hand and/or an open spreadsheet (with Play-by-Play dumped in). I take note of:
1) Who was in coverage
2) How far the pass traveled in the air
3) Complete/Incomplete
4) any Yards After Catch allowed
At the same time, I’m noting number of Pass Rushers, etc.
Then I tally everything up for each player.
The hardest part is #1 – see here – so unless I see something on replay (from a better angle) that better shows who is “at fault”, I normally just go with whoever is the closest defender. I mean, I still consider myself a total novice at recognizing coverage schemes… But you gotta pin the blame on somebody (even if a whole zone is getting stretched by a certain route combination).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
You should work for teams charting these things in the filmroom
by brotherbrown on Apr 15, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be fun. But I’m sure they already have guys that do it, and are able to do it much better (they have access to coach’s tape and can know what the play-call and assignments were supposed to be).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
No Pass rush
I totally agree that with out a serious pass rush we could have had Jesus and Mohammed and Buddha out there and they would have looked horrible.As far as Brian Williams there is no way he he should get a D grade and Houston get a C+.He got hurt but when he did play I do not remember him doing anything real bad like those forty yard passes thrown and Houston right there chasing or all those times Grimes letting some receiver run right thru his grasp.I realize you are statistics hounds and I am just a watcher but no way broken tackles or forty yard completions can be give anything besides a D or F.
Thing about Houston was
He was allowing/chasing, those passing instead of defending them before it got to the receiver, playing the play, and not the receiver nor the ball.
Houston was a reactor, not an attacker.
by brotherbrown on Apr 15, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
B-
As I’ve said over and over and over again, my friend, I don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction on account of our secondary. Disruption in the offensive backfield is the key to successful pass coverage. If the QB has time to check his email before throwing, he’s going to complete A LOT of passes. Some of that is line talent, but some of it is also scheme and game planning. Both of those need to improve.
Some healthy fear from the WR’s of going over the middle would also be beneficial. C4 has to live up to his press.
How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
My Thoughts
The one thing I didn’t see in this evaluation is that Grimes struggled on the right side and was beaten early and often. He really didn’t hit his stride until he took over for Tye Hill. I think he will be the primary backup to Robinson and help solidify our Nickel package. I love Dave’s point that Nickel will allow him to make more plays on the ball. I also believe that William Moore is going to be the starter.
Moore played the pass well in Missouri, where I live and got to watch him, but injuries really limited some of his effectiveness. He is one of the hardest hitting safeties I’ve seen since Ronnie Lott. The only thing we really have to worry about is keeping him on the field. He may be a little too reckless when making the big hit and that causes a lot of his injuries. I would like to see him play the ball a little more but there is something to be said for the bone crushing hit.
All in all, I think this is a secondary that is on the rise. Robinson will be lights out this year. He was injured two years ago and felt wronged last year. I just look for a big bounce back year from him. I am a huge believer in Chris Owens starting on the other side. He’s going to be a solid number two corner for us. Owens was a great corner in college and he has the best pure cover skills on the team. The only thing that is holding him back is birth. The dude was born short and I don’t see a growth spirt in his future. With Moore and Decoud as our starting safeties, I am going to say that the Dirty Birds will have the best secondary in the NFC South this year and, hopefully, for years to come.
I hope
defensive coordinator has determined the abe should be pass rushing and not chasing a tight end around the field.
I didn’t get to see many games in oregon but what i did abe was in coverage way too much and his chances to sack a QB go way down when he is being run in circles due to poor planning of the defensive scheme.
So many more questions thaqn answers in this bunch...
Can Dunta return to pre 2009 form?
Will Brain Williams knee hold up?
Is Chris Owens ready for a bigger role?
Can Grimes continue to have a 72 inch vertical leap? lol
Can William Moore be the guy we all think he’ll be?
Is DeCoud going to play at the level or better than he did in 2009?
WTH was up with Coleman?
Can the new DBs coach get the job done?
"If lessons were learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education." -Murray Warmath
by NaGaNole on Apr 15, 2010 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not that you want them, but I would answer...
Dunta won’t. He’ll be solid, though.
Williams will hold up, injury-wise, but he won’t be effective.
Yes, Owens is ready.
Grimes will continue to grab at least 15 feet of air any time he jumps.
The jury’s out on Moore until we see him play.
Yes, DeCoud will be great.
Coleman’s time is passing.
Shrug?
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by Dave Choate on Apr 15, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
good point
setting realistic expectations is important. as with anything else, if the answer is yes in 50%+ of those questions (I counted 7 in your comment) we should consider it as a success.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
I was wrong
I missed the bolded question, so it makes it 8 questions. I’d rephrase it though – so much of the success of the DBs is dependent not just on the DB coach, but the DC. Unless BVG comes up with something different this season, it won’t make much difference who we have in the backfield.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
I can't give B. Williams a low grade
1) he was brought here to Atlanta as a number 2 CB, so we have to base his performance on what was expected of him. The stats are fine but they don’t tell the entire story and there are many examples of that across the league. The clip that orang3b attached showed me that the number 2 CB got beat on one play against one of the best tandems (Brady/Moss) in football. Other plays I saw him blitzing or Brady throwing the other direction. I didn’t look for the Carolina because Carolina is a run team and Houston is always on their number 1 receiver because he was our number one CB.
2) Orang3b says that the YPA went up after Williams was placed on IR, yet our number 1 corner was still out there playing. So if the stats show that and that’s how you’re measuring worth, then you have to give him credit. Contributing the change to the idea that the Falcons had more passing offenses is not founded. Out of the remaining 10 games of the season we faced Dallas, NO (twice), and Philly. The rest of the team were not known to be pass-oriented teams. Perhaps they passed on us more after Williams was out because they could.
3) It wasn’t that the pass defense looked better when we played Jets, Bills, and TB because we just finished playing teams that passed more. It surely had something to do with the Bills and TB being pretty bad teams and the Jets were a run first team with a rookie QB which played to our strong areas of the team. Or maybe because Houston was hurt and they put the right people in the right positions (Grimes on the right/Owens on the left) on the field.
So his injury is not the sole reason for the defense falling apart but it was a huge loss for the team.
4) Remember, what you saw in pre-season from Houston and Grimes is exactly what you would have seen the entire first part of the season if we didn’t get Williams. We were lucky that Williams was a cap casualty. Owens couldn’t beat out Grimes who couldn’t beat out Williams on the left side. And yet there are those that think Williams was not our best corner. As Chad Ochocinco would say “child please”.
I give him a B.
Agree to disagree
But when I said top Passing teams (your points #2 and 3), I was using Football Outsiders’ DVOA. After Williams got hurt, we faced:
Wk 7 @ DAL, #3
Wk 8 @ NO, #5
Wk 9 WAS, #20
Wk 10 @ CAR, #21
Wk 11 @ NYG, #10
Wk 12 TB, #24
Wk 13 PHI, #12
Wk 14 NO, #5
(DVOA is an efficiency stat, so even though NO was #5 in Passing and #1 in Rushing, we all know they’re still a passing team).
That makes 5 teams in the Top 12 from this 8 game stretch. We only faced 1 other top Passing team (Wk 3 @ NE, #2) in all the other 8 games, with most of those in the Bottom 10 (not middle of the league). I am convinced the schedule had a lot to do with the drop-off & subsequent rebound in Pass Defense.
Also, a couple nit-picks:
1) Houston covered whoever was on the Offensive Left, not always the opponent’s #1 WR (although he was pretty bad in the first CAR game too, besides the last minute INT)
4) Owens was starting over Grimes at the end of the year – Owens was getting the start beginning Wk 12, and Grimes only got back into the starting line-up Wk 14 (after Houston got hurt).
As for Owens not beating out Williams at the start of the season – I would’ve been shocked if he had. But I would also argue that Coach Smith gave his favorites (both Williams AND Peterson) too much leeway.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I'm glad that we both agree
that Houston was not effective at all. I also agree that Owens should start this year over Williams because of his injury and Williams may have only one year left with ATL anyway. Good stuff orang3b.
Maybe all of that is true in 3 and 4
But that was at the start of the season.
What could matter is what happened at the end.
Maybe the team and players figured out what needed to be done, and Grimes does better on the left than the right outplaying Houston, and Houston was beating out everyone because of his status than performance (That crap does happen in all jobs, and other situations), and Owens did the same too on the other side.
by brotherbrown on Apr 15, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh.......
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Apr 15, 2010 3:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thank VISHNU
EXCELLENT post. I’ve literally been waiting for this orang3b.
Sadly, some people are just never going to admit how poorly Williams played last year (no matter how much fancy schmancy empirical data you throw in their face).
"There's a little sound off the bat," Cox said.
Following orang3b
Is like going on stage after Jerry Seinfeld with a whoopee cushion.
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I would find that amusing.
If you walked up there, placed the whoopee cushion in a chair, sat on it, and then walked off, I would laugh.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, to either side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
As my old dad used to say, "Classics is classics."
He swore you can’t go wrong with potty humor. I tend a little more towards obscure references.
Dave, I never know how to respond to orang3b when he contradicts me. I recommend, “Um, okay.”
—AOb
How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
I know sometimes I come across like “______ is the best/worst, and 12345.54321 is the reason why”. I am very opinionated, but I’m honestly not trying to end the conversation, just add another layer to it. More information is almost always a good thing. Just back up your position, even if it’s something like Clabo is my least favorite Falcon; I just don’t like his face… I can always respect that.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Nooo, you take me the wrong way!
I was really making fun of my own lack of preparation!
This is an emotional pursuit for me, not an intellectual one. I want to sit on the couch and rave until I give myself another heart attack because Brent should have made the interception he had his hands on two plays ago.
Quantitative analysis would force me to love a team likt the Chargers. Eeewww.
Don’t ever take me as serious! Sometimes I’m the only one who sees the punch line.
How many more days, Lord, must I walk through the wilderness?
dont have a heart attack over a game play
It might leave me as the only remaining old fart on the board.
also i agree with your idea that we don’t need to be expert in facts and data to love our team and have our opinions on how to improve them. I wish i had time to learn all the stats and stuff but i gotta rely on others. I read about 7 sites each day and whatever links i find relevant to get what info i can. very rarely find stats interesting enough to worry over yet i do appreciate the people who bring them to us. I prefer getting a feel for the players than relying on stats but i love that orange and others give us the stats we need to either show how we are right , wrong, or just homers.
If i ever retire, 25 years from now at 75, I might spend more hours getting more details, as it is i average about 10 hours a week in off season. probably twice that during regular season. I spend 3/4 of the time on falcons about 1/4 on seahawks.
agree
my statistics professor used to say that if you torture numbers long enough, they’ll confess to anything.
with all due respect to orang3b’s phenomenal ability to have a numeric answer to any question, I think the game is all about emotions. we use the numbers only to back up the things we feel, and if someone likes B.Williams, there must be tons of evidence to support that too ))
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Too many stats tend to put me to sleep
Just give me the synopsis. My age-addled brain can’t handle the details. I’m sorta like GWB that way.
But, about our secondary circa 2010....
I see them being a strength this year with Moore coming back from injury to solidify the safety rotation, and now getting a decent true #1 corner in Dunta( no I don’t mean a #1 as in shutdown corner, I mean as in the #1 listed as a starter, covers the #1 receiver as good as he can!) to add with a decent rotation of youth and talent, with grimes, and owens, and backups of jackson, and williams and maybe another young guy in the draft. I thnk it will allow us to better cover the passing teams. We’re solid against the run, nobody’s gonna run it down our throats, so now we just got to stop people from throwing it over our damn heads!!
great post orang3b!
we’ve had a thread somewhere here where we talked about Grimes. It appeared to me that most of his intercepted passes where intended for some other DB’s guy, and it made it look (on TV) that Grimes came from nowhere to pick the pass. so I agree that he shouldn’t be covering a #1 or even #2 receiver but actually roam the whole backfield and pick passes.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Instead of nickelback he should be pickelback....
Yeah I know that was funny. No but seriously, I had made the statement that Grimes missed some tackles and I got rheemed a few months back. Now O3b shows the data and thus solidifies my opinion. Grimes is a hybrid player. BVG could draw up some unique coverage schemes and use his unusual ball skills. He is not a prototypical corner but a very good weapon.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Apr 16, 2010 9:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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