2010 NFL Draft: the Falcons Won the 19th Pick Instead of the 20th. So What?

by Jason Kirk on Mar 9, 2010 2:15 PM EST Comment 13 comments

This guy was picked 19th in 1996. Do you know who went 20th?

As you may have heard, your Atlanta Falcons recently won the rights to the 19th pick in the 2010 draft over the HATED* Houston Texans.

For about twenty minutes after the coin flip, we held our heads slightly higher. It was our winning coin flip in the 2008 draft that brought us Matt Ryan and Curtis Lofton, after all. But how much difference is there really between the 19th and 20th picks?

I don't think any of us assume picking 19th instead of 20th equals punching a ticket to the Super Bowl, but I was curious to see what kind of players went in these spots for the past decade.

* We don't hate the Houston Texans.

We'll break down the last ten first-round 19th/20th duos by games played and started for drafting teams, '09 Football Outsiders DVOA, Pro Football Reference approximate career value, Pro Football Focus '09 rating (asterisk means '08 due to '09 injury), and -- just for gigsies -- Madden 10 rating. Last box to the right shows current team; if blank, they're still with the one what brung 'em. Follow me:

2009:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Jeremy Maclin	WR	Philadelphia	13/0	8.7%	-	-0.9	78
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Detroit	9/0	-11.5%	-	-7	80

2008:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Jeff Otah	T	Charlotte *	25/25	-	6	-5	86
Aqib Talib	CB	Tampa**	30/17	-	2	3.6	82

* Suggested new Falcoholic rule: They're either the Charlotte Panthers, South Mint Street Panthers, or the North Carolina Panthers. There's no such place as Carolina. You don't see us calling ourselves the South Of Appalachia Falcons or the Georgiabama Falcons.

** Suggested new Falcoholic rule: They're the Tampa Bucs. They don't play in an estuary, though that would explain their past 30 years of offensive production!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2007:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Michael Griffin	FS	Tennessee	48/26	-	13	-22.1	95
Aaron Ross	CB	New York Giants	33/24	-	12	-10.9 *	81

2006:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Antonio Cromartie	CB	San Diego	63/23	-	21	-2.7	84	NYJ
Tamba Hali	DE/OLB	Kansas City	63/47	-	22	7.4	65

2005:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Alex Barron	T	St. Louis	63/58	-	23	-23.7	77
Marcus Spears	DE	Dallas	78/57	-	22	-3.7	71

2004:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Vernon Carey	T	Miami	80/64	-	27	12.2	86
Kenechi Udeze	DE	Minnesota	51/47	-	19	-	-	None

2003:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Kyle Boller	QB	Baltimore	53/42	-35.7%	19	-3.5	51	STL
George Foster	T	Denver	49/45	-	26	-30.5 *	66	DET

2002:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Ashley Lelie	WR	Denver	64/40	-38%	32	-6.7 *	-	OAK
Javon Walker	WR	Green Bay	48/18	-11%	25	- 3.9 *	71	OAK

2001:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Casey Hampton	DT	Pittsburgh	126/106	-	55	-6.2	91
Adam Archuleta	SS	St. Louis	72/69	-	29	-	-	None

2000:

			G/GS	FO	PFR	PFF	Madden
Shaun Alexander	RB	Seattle	119/96	-	78	-	-	None
Stockar McDougle	T	Detroit	61/54	-	21	-	-	None

Total games/games started:

19th picks: 528/480

20th picks: 494/378

About 10 career starts more each for 19th picks.

Total PFR approximate career value:

19th picks: 274

20th picks: 178

So yep it's a small sample size and there's not a gigantic difference between 19s and 20s, but we weren't really expecting to uncover any trends here. Without five-time Pro Bowler Casey Hampton or 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander in the mix, the talent gap would be a whole lot closer. According to realgm.com, the difference in salary comes down to about $100k/year -- also negligible.

But the whole point is...

I SAY ALL THAT TO SAY THIS: Who do you think we'll have the option of picking at 19 that we might have missed if we were picking at 20? In other words, who are the Texans worried we'll get first crack at?

1 recs | Comment 13 comments |

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Comments

Love it.

Awesome post. Slow clap in your general direction. Also, were you hungry when you were typing Stockar McDougle?

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Mar 9, 2010 2:34 PM EST reply actions

Oh wow.

http://hotwheels.wikia.com/wiki/Stockar

http://fastfood.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/05/mcdonalds-mcdouble-to-replace-1-double-cheeseburger/5427/

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on Mar 9, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

Oops, forgot to answer the question

Before we signed Dunta, it would’ve obviously been Cornerback. Both teams had needs there. Since that’s not the case anymore, maybe a DE or O-Lineman?

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Mar 9, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions

You might be right... quick glance at numbers suggest Mario Williams could use a bookend.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on Mar 9, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Really, I would expect the Texans to be looking secondary

Maybe linebacker. If we’re going Weatherspoon, maybe we’d upset them, but I doubt if we go pass rushing defensive end that they’ll sweat it at all.

by Dave Choate on Mar 9, 2010 2:55 PM EST reply actions

I don't

see them being nervous about anything. Their needs, to my knowledge, aren’t our needs and by the time it gets to us i believe the better DE will be off the board. The only thing that comes to mind is if they’re looking for their next TE, then they may think we could snatch up Gresham. If Spiller miraculously falls to 19, which is highly unlikely, they may get nervous. Other than those stretches of the imagination, I don’t really see anything.

by Fear Me on Mar 9, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions

I don't want Gresham anywhere near a red and black jersey ...

Two knee injuries. Yikes.

Founder and Proud Member of the JASON SNELLING AIN'T ALL THAT AND A BAG O' CHIPS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA

by FrankyWren on Mar 9, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Here's a link to their site...

…discussing their needs. Looks like the only likely crossover (assuming we go D in the first round) is LB – they seem to like Weatherspoon too.

by TomQ on Mar 9, 2010 3:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Oh, and they worship Durga over there.

As opposed to Vishnu.

by TomQ on Mar 9, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

I eat Durga for breakfast!

Yeah they probably go offense.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Mar 9, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

Nice catch. Weatherspoon looks like the closest thing to a guy we might've missed at 20.

Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter

by Jason Kirk on Mar 9, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

The Atlanta Falcons Should Pick and Concentate on Alabama and Florida and maybe TexasFootball Players

The Atlanta Falcons Should concentate on Alabama , Florida and maybe Texas Defense Players as 3 of the Top 4 rated Defenses in Nation. Also Georgia don’t have many but good Quality Players. Also their Offensive Lines were Great.

by Jeff Gibson on Mar 13, 2010 2:16 PM EST reply actions

Glad we won the toss

First I’d like to say great post. Very nice collection of data.

This is tough though. With Dunta leaving Houston to sign with us they are embarrassingly weak at the corner position. I think the Falcons will definitely sign draft Weatherspoon with our pick. I might have been worried before our signing of Dunta but not anymore. Unless they make some kind of move for a viable starter (or 2) at corner before the draft, I see them taking a corner with their pick. So no, I’m not worried.

by cajunfury on Mar 16, 2010 2:25 AM EDT reply actions