A Falcoholic Projection: Brent "Air" Grimes
by Adam Schultz on Mar 4, 2010 11:34 AM EST
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PrintOk, we all know Brent Grimes can jump. Example:
We also know he has an obsession with intercepting passes.
Knowing these things to be both true and self-evident, predict how many INTs he'll finish 2010 with. Ready? GO!
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If we would stop
trying to get him to play man coverage on #1 recievers he would probably get more. Nah we still need a guy that can shut down the superstars and let Grimes brood and hawk over much weaker prey.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Mar 4, 2010 4:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Any chance you'd be willing to share...
a higher resolution version for a desktop background?
I bet Grimes would love it.
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Mar 4, 2010 3:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
6
But I hope that turns out to be a conservative estimate
by ArthurDank on Mar 4, 2010 12:51 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Great username
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gizlflam you're username is awesome!
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3-4 ...
All I know is that debilah was right when she put me/mentallyMIA in check way back when.
Grimsey had just as much value last year as Meangelo Hall. He was significantly more valuable than Meangelo against the run, but unlike Meangelo, he was pretty miserable in coverage.
His coverage value from 2009/2010 ranked in the bottom quarter of CBs who were in on 25 percent of their team’s defensive snaps. He was also penalized significantly more (his non-penalty value ranked in the bottom quarter of CBs who were in on 25 percent of their team’s defensive snaps).
Consider the QBs who completed less than 50 percent of their passes that were thrown in his direction: Brady (week three – although only five balls were thrown his way in that game and who knows how Brady was feeling at that point?), Alex Smith (week five), Chicago (week six), Freeman (week twelve – although exactly one ball was thrown his way, and he managed to defend that pass), Sanchez (week fifteen – mind you only five balls were thrown his way and Sanchez was hurt), and Freeman (week seventeen). That list doesn’t exactly wow me.
Bottom line: I think 6 may be a little flukey, and while I love Grimsey, I think his athleticism + occasional poor QB play will only net him 3-4 INTs next year.
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by FrankyWren on Mar 4, 2010 1:41 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
go green.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
PFF might be the best thing that has ever happened to me ...
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Then you might be interested in the Nerd Fight (see comments).
Also see Stephanie Stradley’s article about how PFF puts their #s together.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
TY homie
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Wonder how PFF numbers would look if that INT against New Orleans hadn't been called a penalty on Grimes.
If that single play had been called correctly, he’d be right around 35 out of the 65 cornerbacks who played 50% of their team’s snaps. (50% seems more relevant than 25%, since Grimes played more than 50%.) Plus, he’s entering ’10 with 5 picks in his last 4 games.
I’m not talking about the stat line, but what actually transpired on the field.
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Plus, he’s entering ’10 with 5 picks in his last 4 games
yeah … against Sanchez when he was hurt, Brian Brohm, and Freeman. Color me unimpressed. I agree the numbers might fluctuate, but not as much as you’re thinking (in my opinion).
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Considering Freeman literally ate us alive the first time out
I’m willing to be impressed by Grimes picking him the second time around.
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it's all relative ... and any NFL interception is impressive
I’m not saying I don’t want him on the team. Heck, I defended the gizflam out of him above. Just saying that it’s unrealistic to expect him to sustain or better his ’09 INT total.
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I won't disagree with that
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My post was about that incorrect penalty/INT against New Orleans, so you can throw Drew Brees in there too.
Little more impressive that way.
Again, not talking stats. Talking what actually happened on the field… Grimes’ PFF rating is skewed by one awful call.
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OK ...
Assume that one bad call is an INT instead, he had a positive rating in coverage in that game (without the INT) and not even two INTS in that game would have given him positive value in coverage on the year.
I think he should wear the Red and Black for years to come, but he isn’t a quality option in coverage … yet.
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Maybe what I'm driving at is:
PFF and FO are great for “ballpark estimates” of players, but since we know things about his performance — like that one very influential play — that no stat formula site could ever possibly know, we have to factor that stuff in as well. We know he’s not a top 25% corner, and maybe never will be. But I think when you look at numbers AND reflect on what we saw, we have to agree he’s not a bottom 25% corner either.
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by Jason Kirk on Mar 5, 2010 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
agree to disagree
orang3b is right about the “overall rankings,” but they do rank coverage value separate and apart from non-penalty value.
I was never saying he isn’t a solid addition to the team (if you go back and read what I wrote), all I was saying from the beginning was that he really isn’t as good in coverage as his ‘09 INT suggests, but that given his athleticism and the fact that he’ll eventually get lucky (because he has mad hops) and/or he’ll face poor QB play he’ll still net 3-4 INTs next year (all while being an asset against the run).
You can’t mistake objectivity for haterdome homie. There will always be a non-objective factor at play in football, you’re absolutely right, but “gut feelings” and “past potential” don’t always get it done in this league. Not talking about Grimsey, but that’s how I feel about Dunta.
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Yeah I know you're not hating
I’m just talking about the shortcomings of PFF’s nuance-free analysis.
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trust me ... I feel ya
I also post at talkingchop (the Braves blog) from time to time, and there are plenty of posters over there that think of baseball in sabermetrics-only terms, which can be unfortunate/frustrating/just downright annoying, because there’s certainly an intangible element to all sports.
But sometimes the numbers throw a red flag when you’d otherwise be comfortable with going on potential or past performance, and whether you think that red flag has merits or not is entirely up to you, but I’d bet that those who make their predictions based on numbers (such as those that PFF provides) are right more often (in retrospect) than those who base their assessments on “intangibles” …
Different strokes for different folks is all.
Trust me, I’ve never been a huge stats guy when it comes to football, but I think I’m an official convert now.
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Statistics come about by recording “what happens on the field”…
He was great in some games (1st NO game, CHI, NYJ, 2nd TB game) but was beyond awful in others. He missed a bunch of tackles and was destroyed in coverage in the DAL and NYG games, for sure. The point is, one “bad” call out of 445 Pass Defense snaps isn’t going to skew the numbers that much.
Overall, it looks like he had the best numbers (Completion % Allowed, Average Yds per Completion) of any Falcons Cornerback.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Stats record official results of plays, not what actually happens on the field. What happened was an interception. We have the benefit of context. And it skews PFF's numbers that much:
Penalties appear to be worth at least 1 negative point. Interceptions appear to be something like 2 positive points. That 3 point swing would bump him from the bottom third (bad cornerback) to middle of the pack (average cornerback).
We can find value in PFF, but only with a grain of salt.
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I guess by "official results" I should say "official rulings."
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Yeah ... but it's all about how much salt
I think you’re suggesting a cup where only a teaspoon may be warranted.
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that may be true
But Grimes played much better as the 2009 season progressed. I think he needed more time to play and learn the game, and he finally got it along with Owens, so those stats can be misleading. Most of his INT came in the latter half of the season.
Regular season only? 16.
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Your a peppy little turd ain't ya?
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Mar 4, 2010 4:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i think
8. he will start all games instead of just half. he will be playing good qb’s for the most part, but he is athletic and got the verts.
by JJWatt1stfalconspick on Mar 4, 2010 1:53 PM EST reply actions
Did you see the Gilyard #1 Falcons jersey?
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Mar 4, 2010 4:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Grimes is the truth, I like hime a lot. I think he will get 8 ints. On the road next year were playing some awful teams with awful qbs. He’s amazing against the run too.
by ramsjigga on Mar 4, 2010 2:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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Grimes is short but he can jump !
He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is
Sometimes if I need to smile I watch this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKLL7Lk74D8
Rule #1: Double tap.
by Ball Hawk on Mar 4, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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