almost 2 years ago
Jason Kirk
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They also rank Babineaux as the #1 DT. Add in Baby Rod Coleman and a little luck, and you've got a pass rush.
Meanwhile, our best cornerback: Chevis Jackson, 61st best in the league.
Sure sure sure stats lie etc etc… but they don’t lie THAT bad.
REVISED DRAFT BOARD:
1. CJ Spiller
2. A cornerback
3. Trade down
DE vs CB
That’s not their “stats”, that’s just PFF’s grades for each player. And I’m not really crazy about how they grade sometimes. I think it’s a useful tool, especially for positions that don’t have many traditional stats (like Offensive Linemen), but they seem to assign all of the blame (or at least most) to one player when bad plays happen.
For an example, take a look at their list of the top QB’s. They seem to blame the Offensive Line exclusively for Sacks. Aaron Rogers tied for #2, Big Ben at #5, and even Flacco at #8 are guys that are known to hold on to the ball too long. Compare that list to Football Outsider’s top QB’s, which takes Sacks (and game situation) into account. If you look at just the YAR (which isn’t defense-adjusted), Aaron Rogers is #7, Big Ben is #9, and Flacco is #13. That seems closer to reality to me.
How I think that relates to the Falcons is this: I think they’re putting most of the blame for the Falcons’ terrible Pass Defense on the CB’s for poor coverage last year, and not enough blame on the DE’s for their poor pass rush. Although, PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rating (not just the grades) said that the DL was probably slightly above average rushing the passer last year (it doesn’t say how long it took to get pressure, though).
Basically, I’m not too opposed to drafting a CB early (as long as they don’t take a prospect that’s ranked in the 30’s at #19). There are just so many young corners already, and plenty of other areas of need (DE, OLB, OL, WR, etc).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Also
I’m not knowledgeable enough to say this definitively, but the more I dig, the more the blame seems to fall on VanGorder.
1) We’ve already discussed Abe (and other DE’s) dropping into coverage plenty of times here. Damage here is twofold. First, it obviously takes our best pass rusher out of that role (when Abe drops), leaving it to others who aren’t nearly as skilled. Second, it puts a Defensive Lineman into coverage, where they usually (at best) just take up space. I’ve got plenty of bad memories of this: Abe getting juked to the ground Jason Witten, or worse yet, JA98 getting completely schooled by Jeremy Shockey.
2) That PRP Rating study opened my eyes to the LB’s: They blitzed Peterson 109 times, but all he produced was 1 Sack, 1 Hit, and 5 Pressures. Nicholas blitzed only 47 times, but had 3 Sacks, 2 Hits, and 5 Pressures. Blitzing Peterson was an absolute waste last season, but they kept sending him over and over and over again. Isn’t that the definition of insanity – doing the same thing and expecting different results?
3) Coleman was constantly creeping up close to the Line of Scrimmage, either to blitz or as another man to help stop the run. Well, the Falcons ended up as the #2 Run Defense according to DVOA, but probably at the expense of the Pass Defense (ranked #27). New Orleans had opposite strength/weakness (#9 Pass D, #29 Run D), and their defense was good enough to win a championship (obviously, with help from their great offense). Coachspeak says you have to stop the run first. That simply is not true in today’s NFL, and I think it is a mistake to gear your defense that way.
4) The zone blitz was easy to identify and exploit. I re-watched the MNF game against the Saints the other night, and in the first half Brees (the camera was behind him) pointed to the right to identify possible blitzers and adjusted the protection scheme. At the snap, the LT didn’t even attempt to block Abe, who – yep – dropped into coverage. The entire OL slid right, there was no pressure, and Brees hit his receiver for a big gain.
I just don’t know how the defense is going to drastically improve until there are major changes to the scheme – no matter who is new here next year: a 1st Round CB, Julius Peppers, etc. Sorry for the pessimism.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Feb 17, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I’m not a pro when it comes to analyzing football data. I’m not even sure sometimes what you guys are talking about when it gets into football terminology.
But even I could see one thing – our defense as a whole was very predictable too often. yes, I admit there were times when our D surprised even good teams (how about that DeCould sack and forced fumble in that same MNF game?). but in most situations when we faced an experienced QB he’d read what our defenders were planning to do, audible and beat us, time after time. to me that’s a DC’s fault, and you’re right – replacing players won’t help much.
They said one of the reasons why NO shut down Manning &Co in the second half of the SB was because their D adjusted to Manning’s adjustments. Apparently their DC told Vilma to change the play and drop back into coverage every time Manning called an audible. Both of our coordinators need to work on their creativity in the offseason.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
On point 2
I don’t know how accurate those numbers are. I think a lot of times Peterson was assigned the running back on man to man. When the back stayed in to block, Peterson moved in to rush the qb. I don’t think those were designed blitzes.
I don’t see a major change coming to the scheme. That scheme is what Smith likes, and I don’t see him changing up his defensive philosophy when he hasn’t had the time to get the personnel that he wants.
I do agree that we need to stop dropping our linemen into coverage. There is no reason to not have Abraham going after the quarterback every down.
I think he’ll have a resurgence next year if Jerry can stay healthy. If the interior of the line can stay healthy, then Abe will have a 10+ sack season again.
Its true. I'm a Falcoholic! I just can't live without Falcohol!
by phoenix falcoholic on Feb 18, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Still, even if only half of those 109 Pass Rushes were “designed blitzes”, Peterson just wasn’t getting it done.
And I’m not so sure that what VanGorder was running last season was a scheme that Coach Smith “likes”. From what I can tell, yes – he seemed to prefer a zone scheme; but I don’t think he was running zone blitzes as the main blitz package (although, I could be wrong). The past info I have (from Football Outsiders’ Pro Football Prospectus books) shows that Coach Smith’s Jacksonville teams were usually in (or near) the Top 10 of the league in percentage of time rushing exactly 4 men (~70% of the time), below average in rushing 5 or 6 men, and in the Top 10 in big-blitzing 7 men (still only ~2% of the time) and also above average in rushing only 3 men (~5% of the time). To further back this up, Jacksonville was always near the very bottom of the league in Sacks from DB’s, usually ~3% (we were at 12% this past season).
I’ve got near complete faith in Coach Smith’s philosophy, because of his track record in Jacksonville: from 2002 (before Smith) to 2003 (Smith’s first year at DC) the pass defense went from #23 to #17 (DVOA rank). The pass defense improved every single year there, until his last season: #12 in ’04, #9 in ’05, #3 in ’06, before slipping down to #8 in ’07.
Those Jacksonville teams had John Henderson and Marcus Stroud at DT, and nothing special at DE (and Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams at CB, Safeties nothing special). Hopefully, with Peria Jerry coming back next season, VanGorder will trust the front 4 to get the pressure on the QB (and clog running lanes), so he doesn’t have to try to design crazy blitz packages.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I think #3 is the biggest problem.
Well, besides Houston/Anderson, but they’re not really integral to the scheme or our future.
Coleman appears completely obsessed with racking up tackles, no matter the cost. Whether this is CBVG’s idea or Coleman’s predilection, it’s ridiculous to turn 9 yard runs into 6 yard runs at the expense of deep passes.
SAVE US WILLIE MOORE
Like I said:
Sure sure sure stats lie etc etc… but they don’t lie THAT bad.
Stats, ratings based on stats, yes yes yes sure sure, close enough, same thing, the point is clear.
their formula seems a little off to me
They rated Abe’s overall performance negatively in the Miami game (the only game he had 2 sacks). I guess its because he had 2 penalties in that game too. That seems like an over reaction and or simplification. The type of penalty and the situation make a big difference to me. I don’t remember the penalties…I only vaguely remember the game at all at this point.
Abe is still productive (and very well paid). I just don’t think he induces the fear of God in quarterbacks anymore. For the money he makes he’s supposed to be more than productive I do think Babs, Bierman, Sidbury, Davis and Jerry along with Abe make a good nucleus. None of them were game changers this past year though. My preference is still for a pass rushing LB – They tend to be more versatile and athletic and this is supposed to be good crop too
Yeah, I try to not even look at their “overall” ranking – the deductions for penalties are way too strong. For that Miami game, his two penalties have him a (-2.0), but his two Sacks plus another QB Pressure only gave him a (+1.3) for Pass Rush?!!
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
agree ... just look at the RB's
That site also says Jason Snelling is #10. Now don’t get me wrong cuz I am a HUGE fan of JS (go Hoos!) but he’s nowhere close to a top ten back.
They do overvalue versatility, even if it means putting Pretty Good At Everything over Game-Changing At One Thing, which is why Snell's so high up there.
Biermann gets a huge bump for his pass coverage abilities, which I assume means he tipped a couple passes here and there. But how much pass coverage does the average DE really do?
I should’ve included more qualifiers in this post… it’s based on an undisclosed formula, it’s subjective, it seems to give equal value to all stats in all settings. STILL, my point was that if a formula ranks our two DE’s in the top 15, yet ranks all our CBs are 60th or worse, then even if that formula is completely cocked it’s STILL a pretty clear look at what the real problem is.
I'm of two minds here
The first is that no matter how you grind these grades, they show our pass rush is better than we thought it was in 2010. That would seem to put some of the onus on cornerbacks. At this point, I’d be pretty comfortable going either DE/OLB or CB. I trust the team to make the decision they think is best.
However, John Abraham is still in the inevitable decline phase of his career at this point and we haven’t asked Sidbury, Biermann or Davis to be full-time players yet. Getting one potentially elite pass rusher would still dial up the strength of our defensive line and give our cornerbacks a little more breathing room. Of course, maybe if the corners were better they’d have more time to rush. I’M SO CONFUSED!
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by Dave Choate on Feb 17, 2010 6:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Bierman and Snelling...
Most underrated players on our team. Love those two.
I HATE PFF
Mostly because i know the guys who run it and they are complete {insert expletives] who talk down to everyone.
And secondly, there magic overall number has a special “to be patented” sum that cant be shared for legal reasons and is therefore not transparent.
Finally, if Peter King endorses you, then your an [insert another]
go hard or go home
Yup
Brits who think they are better than everyone else…would have been at home in the British Empire 100 years ago. They stil havent got used to being Americans * yet…!
go hard or go home
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