The Falcons now stand at 8-2 atop of the NFC as we take on the Packers at home so we bring you officially our 5th post in our Best Case/Worst Case evaluation of this week’s matchup. Show us some love and rec both of our posts.
This is the 2nd part of Turner_The_Burner's post Best Case Scenario vs. Packers. See it here
Flipping it to the Packers
As it has been said here I’m going to play the devils advocate here and speak about where the Packers can hurt us bad. We approach this game with the chance to have our 3rd straight winning season but it won’t be easy. The Packers are a deadly team when it comes to defence and a very good team on offence. So the worst case scenario for the Falcons is – Brandon Jackson hits big, Clay Matthews continues his streak and Roddy gets shut down.
Brandon Jackson hits big: The Falcons have a very good run defence and the worst part about the Packers team is their run game due to injuries to Ryan Grant. However there is an interesting little stat I found out this week: when we loose we have averaged over 100 yards, and when we win it is under 100 yards. I think this is to do with the fact we get out to early leads, have a menacing front 7 and when our opponents are down they don’t run the ball so we can focus on coverage.
Now the Packers have a great passing game, 8th best QB rating in the league, Aaron Rodgers is a beast and given a couple years of experience will be, in my opinion, one of the top 5 passers in the league. But what if Brandon Jackson has a big day? What if he breaks out a couple of big runs against us? We have been known to allow one on the rare occasion and Jackson has broken for a big gain on the rare occasion. Against the Redskins he rushed for 115 yards for 10 carries, but besides that he has struggled to maintain an average of 4.0 yards or more. Even in the Redskins game his stats were skewed by a 71 yard run. I doubt he will be an issue at all but if he can get something going, it could be deadly.
Clay Matthews continues his streak: Now Clay is a beast, he is such a beast that a man near the northern lakes of Siberia died of fright when he thought that he saw Matthews shadow in the night. He will be the biggest threat to our offensive line as he has the most sacks this year with 11.5 but I have faith, our O-line has been dominant in recent weeks, letting in very few sacks, including no sacks against what was the leagues best sacking team, the Rams. Now the Packers also held that title at one point and so I would very much like to stop them in their tracks. There is some bad news… we aren’t good against 3-4 defences apparently. Suggs flattened Ryan twice in the Baltimore game, playing the same position as Matthews, but Matthews is better.
The good news is that Matthews is slightly one dimensional, he is a pass rusher and that is about it. Take away the Dallas game and he has only deflected one pass on the season, probably by throwing a hand up before putting the QB on his back. He also only has 36 tackles, an ok amount but nothing great. Point is, is if we can stop him sacking Ryan he won’t do much else. Also he is probable on their injury list so chances are he isn’t playing at 100%. The final thing to note is that although Matthews is the biggest threat there are some other very good players who can create sacks given the chance. The one I will focus on is Cullen Jenkins however most of their front 7 can get a sack given the chance. Jenkins is hidden in Matthews shadow but he has still had a nice, albeit fairly quite season so far and if we don’t look out for him could quietly sack Ryan adding to his current 4 sacks for the year.
Roddy gets shut down: Now I know many of you might be thinking that Roddy will never be shut down, or that the way he’s playing Darrelle Revis would be the only DB that could stop him. But remember last years Defensive Player of the Year? Charles Woodson? Hopefully you do because this guy is good. He has been playing since 1998 where he was drafted 4th overall, over his impressive career he has accumulated 47 picks, 10 touchdowns, 21 forced fumbles, and 12.5 sacks. He is a great player who deserves to be appreciated as a huge threat for White’s current prowess. With Charlie Peprah forced into their starting line-up due to their injuries I am hoping Roddy does burn him, only because he used to play for us, no other reason… oh and because I want Roddy to have a great game. But the Packers are 12th in passing yards allowed and have a fairly solid group despite injuries and the like.
That is all for the analysis for this week, Turner_The_Burner and I have been enjoying a holiday where we got ridiculously drunk and had a lot of fun, so this is why we were a bit late for this weeks post. However there was one thing that my comrade said to me while he was drunk: "Rodgers will get sacked 3 times if Abraham plays." He said many other things on that holiday, which probably isn’t important or appropriate for this site however I thought it was an interesting viewpoint in the midst of a very interesting conversation. But I thought I should say his predictions and see if my friend when drunk is insightful or just drunk. So finally good luck to the Falcons and I hope they get a comfortable win to keep on their winning ways.