Advanced NFL Stats: What Is The Break-Even Run Success Rate?

While I am a big believer in Pass Offense/Defense being more important than Run Offense/Defense, Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats has recently been looking at Success Rate in the run game, and how it is an important indicator of team success.

Follow the link, but long story short is "it appears that a team needs just over a 39% run SR to have a net positive EPA per play".

The Falcons are #1 in this measure of Run Defense (allowing only 31.1% Success Rate); On Offense, Turner is just below the break-even point, at 37.4% SR; Snelling is just abouve the mark, at 42.0% SR.

over 1 year ago orang3b 11 comments 1 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Good info. But where are the defenses we have faced so far ranked?

Oh and Weatherspoon was wearing a knee brace today but said he was fine. Mike smith said the team would continue to evaluate him and give an update on him wednesday

by FLA_Falcon on Oct 11, 2010 6:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Class, what have we learned?

“I’m feeling great!”

“Sir, you’re having a stroke.”

“Too bad, I feel wonderful!”

Follow me on Twitter! twitter.com/FalcoholicZippo

If you're a fan of the Falcons, or if you want to chat it up with some Falcons fans, sign up here, share your opinion, and get to know some great fans of the Falcons!

by Caleb Rutherford on Oct 12, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah but

I’d rather hear himthink he is fine than hear him be down about it

by FLA_Falcon on Oct 12, 2010 7:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I wish I was smart enough to understand this.

Rule #1: Double tap.

by Ball Hawk on Oct 11, 2010 6:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Yeah, me too

I just see how our numbers and compare to other teams numbers. I don’t understand how it all works itself out but if we are better than other teams that’s a good thing

by FLA_Falcon on Oct 11, 2010 6:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

You can do it man

Just go to Advanced NFL stats and read throught the glossary section. That will explain everything.

by mwalex on Oct 12, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

haha

Yeah, it looks like complete nonsense at first, but it’s really straightforward once you get used to it (like mwalex says, just read the glossary).

Quick explanation is this: every down & distance, in conjunction with current field position gives you a value of future Expected Points (1st and Goal at the 1 is almost 6 EP, 3rd and 20 at your own 1 yard line is about -2 EP). EPA (Expected Points Added) is just the difference in EP from the start of a play to the end of a play – and a positive EPA is a “Successful” play for the Offense… and it goes from there.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Oct 12, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I love advance baseball stats and sabermetrics, so this stuff is my kind of shit. Any other sites you guys would recommend for football stats?

Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.

by award6 on Oct 12, 2010 1:54 AM EDT reply actions

Football Outsiders is really the Bible, in my mind

Always start there. Also, just as an FYI, we generally use “shaz” or something similar as a placeholder for swears outside of game threads. Not something you’re going to get yelled at for, but something to keep in mind.

by Dave Choate on Oct 12, 2010 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions