A Very Falcoholic Discussion: Will Harry Douglas Overtake Mike Jenkins?
by Dave Choate on Jan 30, 2010 8:00 AM EST
in Editorial
44 comments
It's the off-season, so it's fun to debate what's ahead as though we have some idea of what it's going to be. It being a Saturday, I figured a discussion about Harry Douglas and Michael Jenkins might be a good one to have.
Basically, this is to determine who is going to be holding down the spot opposite Roddy White in 2010, because there's one receiver who clearly isn't going anywhere. On the other side, you have a choice between the young, explosive and super-talented Douglas, who lost an entire season to injury, or Michael Jenkins, stalwart, big, and an incredibly capable blocker. Because what they bring to the table is so disparate, you really need to decide what you look for in a #2 receiver. Would you rather have a guy capable of stretching the field or a tall target in the red zone? Can't have both, in this case.
Discuss away and we'll feed our brains.
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I would like to see them switch out
have Jenkins in the run packages and have Douglas in on the others. Though still its hard to say how he’ll perform this year, I haven’t seen him in a year…
the good news is
HD got hurt very early in the year last year, so he should be a bit ahead of the ‘usual’ ACL curve.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Harry Douglas has crazy eye...
I’m just saying. That can be good or bad on the football field.
But you know who else had the crazy eye? MV.
I see them as different types
Jenkins is a stereotypical #2 WR. Okay but not spectacular. Although I feel like hes getting better and might have a breakout season next year based on his improvements.
I see Douglas as Wes Welker mk. II. We need him at #3 slot and returning punts. The guy has the speed to make small receptions into FD’s.
go hard or go home
No
With as run-heavy as the Falcons offense is likely to be, a blocking WR like Jenkins is invaluable. He will need to be out there on most plays. You can’t just swap the two out based on what play you plan to run either. That becomes far too predictable. Aside from that, they have totally different skill sets as wideouts. Jenkins is more of a prototypical #2, with Douglas having more of the attributes of a #3. I liked the way they used them in Douglas’s rookie season-Jenkins on the outside, Douglas in the slot. I say stick with that.
by SG Standard on Jan 30, 2010 10:34 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Agreed
Jenkins is invaluable as a blocker and he should not move out of the #2 slot. With Douglas back at #3/in teh slot, Ryan has a true Welker-type posession receiver to complete Gonzo. Which means Roddy becomes a deep threat again. Now, if Jenkins actually really improves and starts catching those TD passes (his drop against NY is still the most memorable image of his 09 season to me) our passing game should have no problems producing.
by wiesengrund on Jan 30, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Can’t compare oranges and apples. We need them both and performing in their own niches.
Jenkins has been inconsistent this season, but I cant think of anyone who could beat him out for his job. And I hope HD does come back roaring, justifying all the good things we write about him here.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
the terminology
in distinguishing #1, #2 and #3 WRs, of course, has nothing to do with actual productivity as a receiver – in this context it has something to do with the number of snaps and position on the field.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Number of snaps
That’s right – remember, Jenkins is getting a ton of the snaps with only 1 WR on the field (over Roddy), because of his ability as a blocker. I don’t expect that to change.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
That’s a false poll. Harry has never projected out as a #2, he’s a slot. In the slot I consider him a more valuable receiver than Jenkins. Please fix your poll.
A #2 receiver can play slot.
See the oft-mentioned Wes Welker. There’s no rule that says the #2 WR has to play out wide. Jerry Rice, the ultimate #1, used to line up at slot all the time.
This poll isn’t about where Jenkins/Douglas stand before the snap … it’s about playing time, involvement, and priorities.
I’d love it if we gave HD a real shot.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
I can see where this rose out of
Instead of “play opposite,” I should have said “gets the next most playing time.”
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Micheal jenkins is a great blocker but isnt a great reciever and I dont think HD could block as good as Jenkins, so unfortunately Jenkins will probably stay #2. But we should draft a speed reciever who can strech the field.
Eric Weems
Its true. I'm a Falcoholic! I just can't live without Falcohol!
by phoenix falcoholic on Jan 30, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
This
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by Adam Schultz on Jan 30, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
maybe
i cant really say…harry mde some excellent catches in 2008 and jenkins dropped a some clutch passes this year soo i dnt think HD will be 2 next year but i think he will be the next.
HOW MUCH MONEY DID THE SAINTS GIVE THE REFS?!?!?!?!
Dexter
Would we be able to squeeze a slot back in like McCluster.
by Ball Hawk on Jan 30, 2010 11:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think his stock went down a lot this season
I know its due to injury, but he just didn’t show that breakaway speed he used to. I think we’ll still have him when fall comes around.
Its true. I'm a Falcoholic! I just can't live without Falcohol!
by phoenix falcoholic on Jan 31, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Would the real Chris Johnson please stand up.
Yeah we need that threat to complete our backs. Of course we got the man, Turner, and Snelling is quite the beast as a north south power back but Jerious just isn’t gettin it done. I hate to say it but we need an upgrade.
by Ball Hawk on Feb 1, 2010 8:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Dez Bryant
He runs great routes, physical, strong(think boldin), and he can catch, unlike Jenkins. HD will see ALOT of playing time in the slot, as he should, and can contribute like #2 while Bryant will get most of his targets on 3rd down early on then working himself into a more prominent role around mid-season, once he learns the playbook. I have two reasons why we should draft Bryant. 1) We drafted defense heavily last year and using a 1st round pick on defense once again would, in my opinion, make last year’s haul a bust and I’m not ready to sink that ship. 2) Jenkins is just not that good. He can’t catch, struggles with physical corners, and isn’t that good in the air despite his height… but he’s a really good blocker(meh).
by PennsylvaniaPeregrine on Jan 30, 2010 11:43 PM EST reply actions
I don't think Bryant will be there when 19 rolls around.
That being said, we have far more pressing needs than a WR in the first round.
I love the fanpost about us trying to trade JA98 and Chauncey to KC for one of their 2nd round picks. It sounds like it’s plausible. Even trading those two to NE for one of their 2 2nds would be possible, too. They shipped Seymour off so they’re in need of a DE to replace him. Why not give them one (or both) of the two expendable ones we have?
I watched the Gamecast of the Senior Bowl and here’s what I gathered:
-Mardy Gilyard can play.
He had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. I don’t have the numbers here in front of me, but he had somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 yards receiving and a TD.
After a strong practice showing, McCluster’s stock had to have fallen after his performance at the Senior Bowl.
He fumbled at least once and had some negative plays. He did have one big play, but it was at the end of the game when the game was out of reach.
Sean Weatherspoon gathered even more attention after his performance.
He had an INT close to their own goal line and returned it 35-40 yards. I don’t know how it happened or how the run back was, but you have to like that in an LB.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Why would NE
want someone like JA98, even with their DE needs? If he hasn’t performed with us, chances are he’d struggle elsewhere. no?
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
by Gemini-RU on Jan 31, 2010 6:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why would NE want Randy Moss?
He’s a slacker and his work ethic sucks, and he helped OAK in exactly zero ways. He’s washed up and doesn’t block. Yet, NE nabbed him and he played fantastic.
Some people need a change of scenery. If NE feels like the potential is there, why not take a chance on someone who has some NFL experience? Instead of playing the crapshoot (as Dave calls it) and potentially getting a bust or an injury prone player in the 2nd, you can have two DEs (one of which isn’t that awful) who can be coached up.
Maybe their DL coach is better than ours. Our DL got very little rush last year. Imagine playing next to Vince Wilfork. He’d make any DE look better.
And also, nobody said NE had to be completely intelligent about the trade. Dumber things have happened, ya know.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Good point
Although I’d say Moss and JA98 are not in the same category – one of them shined immediately after being drafted (Minnesota). So Belichik wasn’t really gambling when going after Moss.
True, if they figured these players could prosper in the new environment, it might be a good move. And I couldn’t agree more with your last statement :)
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Exactly
JA98 has never known success in the NFL. I really think we should have let him go last year and kept Grady Jackson around and Drafted 1st round DE last year. Now we gotta make up for it and we will probably be starting 2 rookies on that side of the line. Yeah we got SID and the Beerman but Jerry is a 2 year rookie and even with those guys who should get better we didn’t do so hot against the pass. The only real solution is Free agency for DE. There is some real talent available in FA.
Those are in no way comparable situations
Trading a 4th Rounder for Randy Moss, who had one bad year in OAK (he had 1000+ yards in ’05, but only 553 yds and 3 TD in 13 games in ’06), but had already proven he was an All-World performer in his 6 years in MIN.
versus
Trading a 2nd Rounder for Jamaal Anderson and/or Chauncey Davis, who have a combined 11.5 Sacks in a combined 8 seasons.
Not to mention that Chauncey is way too small (262 lbs) to play DE in a 3-4. The smallest guy on their (NE) depth chart is backup Jarvis Moss at 6-3, 285.
That trade is a total fantasy.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Possible, but not likely.
I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility. They did trade Seymour away. They have failed at picking up an RB worth a toot in the past eternity. If Brady wasn’t the QB that he is, that team would be average at best. Their defense is good but moreso because their offense puts them in many more favorable situations than not.
Don’t play the game on paper, my statistical friend.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Ok I'll back down some
Dimitroff could play mind tricks on somebody to convince them to take Chauncey and/or JA98. I just don’t think it would be NE (Belichick) or KC (Pioli), who seem to usually make good decisions (I actually think the Seymour trade was a good move for NE – they got a first rounder from OAK for a 30 year old DE who was in the last year of his contract; they probably decided he wasn’t worth the money he would want for his next contract and/or that he wouldn’t be effecitve for 3+ more years, and got a probable top 10 pick in 2011 instead of a 3rd round compensatory pick if he had left as a FA after this season).
Now if you had said they would trade with a franchise that seems to be run by monkeys, like: CLE, STL, OAK, WAS (well, before Shanahan & Bruce Allen)… then I might’ve agreed that maybe TD could pull a rabbit out of his hat. I still don’t think it would be a 2nd rounder, though.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Question
What do u guys think about acquiring Julius Peppers? He’s got a good 2 years left don’t u think? and he could seal a DE spot.
Work ethic in question, wants to play 3-4 rush end.
That’s pretty much why we won’t do it.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
We should not waste
Early round picks on receivers. We have much more pressing needs than a WR. If push comes to shove pick one up in free agency or trade one of our under performing DL for a WR.
As far as Peppers is concerned I would rather take a chance on a less expensive Osi Umenyiora. Sign him to a one year deal and see how it goes. If he doesn’t play well don’t try to re-sign him.
Have cake and eat it too!
White stretches the field, so will Douglas, but how many WOs do we have that can really deliver that big hit, really earhole a big line backer? Sure he doesn’t have the best hands, or real break away speed but he’s not the feather weight Douglas is. Remeber, this is the NFL, when in doubt, hit somebody! I like Jenkins as no 2 because of the phyisicality he brings, in the end though, Douglas def brings more ball skill. It’s a great thing to have two different skill sets to compliment Mr White’s abilities.
slot!
We dnt evn kno 4 sure how the guy will play yet. Put him in the slot he’s surely an improvement over marty booker and hope he’s as good as wes welker. Keep jenkins at the 2 and pray he improves his playing. weems needs 2 improve 2 bcus if someone goes down he’s the replacement. More worried about turner and Jerry recovering to 100% and wat the hell we will do with our d line and secondary in the off season. Lbs 2 Nicholas is mediocre and peterson can’t cover.
by DEMBIRDZCUZ! on Jan 31, 2010 9:36 PM EST via mobile reply actions
We need to take it down a notch regarding HD
I do think he will be a valuable part of our passing game in ‘09. But we’re talking about a guy who caught 23 passes (1 TD) as a rookie. I don’t think there’s any chance he takes over as #2 next season.
As for the Welker comparisons? Let’s just say they shouldn’t be mentioned in the same paragraph, much less the same sentence:
’09 Welker – 76% Catch Rate (162 Targets), 11.0 YPC (5.9 YAC)
’08 Welker – 75% Catch Rate (150 Targets), 10.5 YPC (6.9 YAC)
’08 Harry Douglas (59% Catch Rate), 13.9 YPC (5.2 YAC)
As you can see by the YPC numbers, they weren’t even used the same way. Welker catches tons of screens and short hitches, then picks up 6-7 YAC. HD caught his average pass deeper (8.7 yards downfield, if you deduct the YAC from the YPC), and wasn’t anywhere near as reliable. Of course, we’re comparing a rookie to a Pro Bowler, so that’s to be expected. I just think we are way out of line if we’re expecting anything more than 35-40 catches from HD next season.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
You're probably right
But what’d we get out of Michael Jenkins?
50 catches, 56% Catch Rate (90 Targets), 12.7 YPC, 1 TD
I know he’s a damn good blocker, but if Harry Douglas caught 35-40 passes at a better clip and averaged more yards per catch, he’d be a more valuable pure receiver. Again, I recognize he doesn’t add value in the run game like Jenkins, but those are not good numbers for an ostensible #2 wide receiver.
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That's from your third option in '09
Roddy 165 Targets
Tony G 134 Targets
Jenkins 90 Targets
And he had 50 Rec, 62% Catch Rate (81 Tgts), 15.5 YPC, 3 TD in 2008 – the whole passing offense was running better that year. One thing is for sure, though – for 6’4", he is not much of a Red Zone target.
Also, I’m not sure those aren’t at least half decent numbers from a #2 WR (and third option), especially if we’re going to continue to be a run-heavy team. Compare his numbers to the #2 WR’s for NYJ, CAR, MIA, CIN, TEN, etc (the teams with the most rushing attempts in ‘09, in decending order – we were #11 there). Of course, if you compare his numbers to #2 guys from pass-heavy teams like IND, ARI, NO, or GB the raw totals won’t look very good. I agree there is plenty of room for improvement in production at the #2 WR spot. But I think there is more room for improvement at #3 (taken care of with HD coming back) and #4 (Weems? draft pick?).
Now ‘08 may be the best Jenkins is capable of… I just don’t think HD’s gonna take over as the #2 WR next year (2011 might be another story).
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
A reasonable argument!
The bane of my existence! Aagh! It burns!
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To be honest, just about anyone could catch the passes Welker does....
….his skill set just makes him invaluable at what he does. IMO the catch rate for Welker is a bit inflated, since he’s catching such short (and inexplicably wide open) passes.
HD has a comparable motor, but when you have a new weapon at your disposal, sometimes you don’t always use him the way you should. I don’t think we utilized him well. He should be doing exactly what Welker does, running those short, sneaky passes.
The down side is…I want to say Matty Ice’s delivery is a bit too long for that. Seems to me in all the times I’ve watched Matty throw, he winds up like a bolo punch to throw, not that that’s a bad thing, it’s just not good for the Welker type pass. However, it has been several months since I’ve seen a Falcons game, so I could be wrong.
Brady delivers the short ball to Welker perfectly and very quickly. It’s like a match made in heaven (or hell….or neither, depending on how your bias swings)
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Now we're talkin...
If you’ve got time and/or interest, you’ve gotta read Football Outsiders’ preliminary study on what they’re calling Receiver Plus/Minus (Part 1, Part 2).
Long story short: yes (pt1), Welker’s Catch Rate is bumped up because of all of his “short” targets, but he is still above the average of what would be expected for all those targets (a .09 +/- per target in 2005-2008). But yes (pt2), most of it seems to be the QB and offensive scheme.
So the big question isn’t whether HD or Jenkins will be the #2 WR, it’s whether Matt Ryan is ready to make “the Leap” to elite status.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Jenkins is not as bad of a receiver as he is made out to be
I think Jenkins could put up 800 to 900 yards receiving easily if given the targets. Yes he has his issues with drops (White still drops his fair share as well), but look at his production when Redman was quarterbacking and then look at his numbers with Ryan. He had 80 or more yards each game. No knock on Ryan, but as anybody can see Matt was locking in on White and even Gonzales way too much at times and I doubt the Jenkins just all the sudden got that much more open for Redman than he did for Ryan. Jenkins speed is also underated if I’m not mistaken wasn’t it in SF when both he and White outran the entire 49er defense and not after the DBs had given up on the play either. I will give Douglas his credit. He is speedy and can be a great 3rd/slot receiver but he is not a 2nd receiver option.
I don't see it happening
Not with HD coming off a season-killing injury.
"Believe me, I carefully calculated the odds of this succeeding vs. the odds I was doing something incredibly stupid and I went ahead anyway."
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