A Very Falcoholic Discussion: Planning For The Patriots
by Dave Choate on Sep 24, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
in Editorial
43 comments
Been a minute or two since I last threw one of these discussions out before you, a diabolical puzzle which only the reader can solve, in the hopes of avoiding any actual work and analysis. You're very welcome.
Today we'll be discussing how the Falcons can effectively gameplan to take down the Patriots, easily our greatest challenge of the young season. This is a team with a likely future Hall of Fame quarterback, one of the most arrogant apparent geniuses in the league at coach and a couple of the better receivers in the NFL. Their pass rush ain't too shabby, either.
The Falcons should catch a break, because if perennial catch machine Wes Welker plays at all, it will likely be sparingly. He's coming off an injury. The bad news is that the Falcons have to stop the Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection or it's going to be a very long day. If I were in charge of this team—and you should all be eternally grateful that Mike Smith is and not me—I'd pressure Brady, give Chris Houston help over the top against Moss and bump Welker/Julian Edelman at the line early and often. If anyone's going to beat us, it's going to be the five-headed hydra of mediocrity at running back, not the passing game.
Weigh in, if you would.
0 recs |
43 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
You pretty much nailed it
Its all about the defense this weekend. First thing the Falcons need is pressure. Don’t just try and generate it with the front four, bring some help from the second and third levels regularly. I’m sure we’ve all seen the stats that the Jets held Brady to when they blitzed last week. Van Gorder should be salivating at the thought of getting to unleash the hounds. Second, just don’t let Moss beat you. Don’t give him room to operate off the line and always have some safety help rolled towards him. If the team can get a combination of a pass rush and keeping Moss occupied so Brady doesn’t have time to get quick passes off to him, then they’ve got a shot. The whole “Welker will be out/limited” thing sure helps, too.
Walking a tightrope on defense
History has shown that you can beat the Pats if you get a good pass rush on Brady. The trick is doing it while covering Moss at the same time. I don’t know how the Jets’ personnel compare to the Falcons’, but THEY managed to do it pretty well.
Jets Personnel
The Jets have a guy named Darrel Revis at corner who could cover Moss 1-on-1. He shut down Andre Johnson the previous week and is an All-Pro caliber CB. The Falcons do not have anyone approaching that level.
If they do blitz, they’ve got to make sure they roll coverage to Moss’ side of the field. That said, Brady is not back to being Brady yet and the Pats are not the same team that went 16-0 two years ago. They would be 0-2 in the Bills’ KR took a knee instead of trying to be a hero.
The Falcons can win this one, but it will be tough on the road.
by Scooter281 on Sep 24, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
Darrelle Revis is scary good. My preference would be to drop Stephen Nicholas or Mike Peterson back into coverage and have the safety help out.
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
Pats aint all That
Goin out on a limb, but on the road and all, Falcons win by 6
Defense will win us this one.
But you all already know what my opinions on that matter are…
You have opinions. We all do. Some of yours may have to do with the Falcons. Sign up today and share them.
Tick tock
Let Turner control the clock. It’s not just about cutting down on turnovers or keeping the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands, it’s about rhythm.
Maybe there is no Heaven. Or maybe this is all pure gibberish — a product of the demented imagination of a lazy drunken hillbilly with a heart full of hate who has found a way to live out where the real winds blow — to sleep late, have fun, get wild, drink whisky, and drive fast on empty streets with nothing in mind except falling in love and not getting arrested...Res ipsa loquitur. Let the good times roll.
by iRonin on Sep 24, 2009 10:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
exactly, I was having this debate with a Phins fan after their loss to the Colts
TOP is very important when you are lacking a consistently stout defense as long as your offense can put it all together at the end of the game.
- It throws off the rhythm of opposing QBs
- It keeps your defense fresh for combating the off rhythm offense – thus improving the pass rush
- It wears out opposing defenses for allowing the big plays at the end of the game to make sure you are the last to score
orang3b made a comment about TOP is utilized by poor teams, but in actuality, it is a good strategy that can be used by good teams if it remains effective (even though it also is a method for masking a less than stout defense). You don’t have to put up 40 points in a game to be a “good team”, you just have to win. To quote a man that used to command a great team before he went senile: “Just win, baby”
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
by MentallyMIA on Sep 24, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
You used
The Dolphins loss as a way to show TOP is important?! I know what you’re saying, but… crap, I guess I’m just being a jerk.
The strengths and weaknesses of the team obviously come into play when that (TOP) is one of your goals. I think Mike Smith is an old-school (and defensive minded) guy who places a big emphasis on ball-control and TOP. He and Dimitroff have shaped the roster in such a way that grinding out long drives is probably the correct strategy. I’m not arguing with any of that…
A team like the Colts (on the other hand) is built around an explosive, efficient offense – and a defense that tries to prevent big plays (at least in the past with Dungy’s Tampa-2). It is absolutely in their best interest to try to maximise the amount of possessions in a game, because the opponent usually cannot keep up.
please note
that when I used the Dolphins loss, I also stated as long as your offense can put it all together at the end of the game – they spent 90 seconds and a timeout before the 2 minute warning to move the ball 6 yards up the field. When the time called for a no huddle offense and smart play-calling, they couldn’t put it all together. This isn’t a problem I think the falcons would have.
If the Falcons were to control the clock for 45 minutes in a game and be given the ball back with over 3 minutes, 2 timeouts, and a 2 minute warning to score, what do you think the outcome would be?
I do agree, the Falcons use TOP to mask the faults on defense. However, it also emphasizes the strengths on defense – it keeps the pass rush fresh. I am not arguing that the Falcons have anything better than a sub-par defense (as it is yet to prove itself as deserving to be among the top half of the league), but I believe the offense winning the TOP battle makes them at least a little better.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
by MentallyMIA on Sep 24, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
bold prediction
Brian Williams gets a pick thanks to pressure from Mike Peterson on a LB blitz.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Another bold prediction
Marty Booker catches a TD pass.
You have opinions. We all do. Some of yours may have to do with the Falcons. Sign up today and share them.
by Adam Schultz on Sep 24, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
This is fantastic
And I’m going to write more when I get a chance to think about it. But to me, the first decision is what Base defensive personnel package they’ll be using (with the Pats using the Shotgun 3WR/1TE/1RB set a ton). The standard Nickle package I’ve noticed for the Falcons so far seems to be:
1) Nicholas coming off the field
2) Grimes coming on, but with Brian Williams sliding in to cover the slot guy
3) DE’s are Abraham and Biermann
If Welker’s playing, I’d love to see Grimes in the slot to match-up with him, not Williams… But I sure don’t want Williams left alone with Moss, either. Like I said, I’ll have to think about this.
Williams seems to be lacking a little bit in the speed department
that our other corners have, but I trust him more in coverage schemes and his bigger frame is better for pressing at the line.
A huge part of me is hoping Tye Hill will be active for this game.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
by MentallyMIA on Sep 24, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm just a worrywart
But I don’t want Tye Hill anywhere near Moss (maybe Welker, but not Moss)…
really though...
there isn’t anybody on this team that I would trust covering Moss. In that same respect, there are few players in the league I would trust covering Moss. It’s a tough matchup.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
by MentallyMIA on Sep 24, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
We know moss will get some plays
lets just limit him in what he can get with consistant double teams.
I have a bold prediction as well
Roddy White goes over 100 yards for the first time this season.
by thisistherevolt on Sep 24, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions
as much as I would like to support your prediction
that would also probably mean that the game turns into a shootout where our defense is responsible for Brady looking like… well… Tom Brady (who he hasn’t looked like the past 2 weeks).
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
The Pats ain't all That
Goin out on a limb, but on the road and all, Falcons win by 6
more like 3
I would watch the jets video and use that to gameplan against them now as you all know, the jets got pressure on Brady causing him to throw on his back foot which makes him miss so I say we put Abraham against either the weakest lineman, the slowest, or the least agile to get pessure on Brady it’ll be tough but I think we can do it
by southman on Sep 24, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pretty much nailed it
Any quarterback who has no time to throw is going to look bad. We have to push the pass rush, especially because their running game isn’t all that fearsome.
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
Pats fan point of view
First of all, great discussion – you guys are fair and analytical fans with knowledge of your team and the game in general (unlike not-to-be-named AFC East counterparts who hang out at Gate D).
In discussing with another Pats fan today we talked about how it’s been more than Brady. In week 1 it was also the O-Line, WR’s and RB’s. Last week the O-Line allowed no sacks, but there were instances where the WR’s didn’t come up trumps and help their QB. So, is this the week where either the WR/RB’s get their act together and help out?
If it’s not dawning on the rest of the team that their going to have to pitch in to help Brady through this rough spot, it should be…like, quickly!
It’s going to be a tough game for the Patriots, no doubt.
Cheers,
David
We're glad to have you here
And we’re hoping it’s really, really tough for the Pats. No offense!
To your first point, I’m extremely proud of everyone here day in and day out. It’s hard to find a group of fans who are as intelligent, friendly and balanced as the guys and gals here are, so I appreciate you tipping your hat in their direction. Cheers, indeed!
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
good point David...
While I certainly think it’s fair to say that Brady doesn’t look quite like himself, i’m also a little surprised that he’s catching this much of the blame. I guess that’s just the curse of being a future hall of fame quarterback… when the team is playing well, you are incredible… when the team is not playing well, you get blamed for it. The truth really lies somewhere in between… as ridiculously good as Brady has been this decade, people forget that he’s had a good cast around him of very solid players. That cast seems to have been weakened, and one man (even if he is Tom Brady) can only do so much.
I think if you look at some of the moves the Patriots have made lately, they do seem to be in kind of a “mini rebuilding” mode, very similar to what Atlanta is doing with it’s defense in trying to get younger and faster. I think that more than anything explains why they’ve looked a little rusty the first two games. That and the fact that they are being compared to 2007 when they played some of the most flawless football anyone has ever seen.
by cheshire falcon on Sep 24, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Some interesting stuff
There’s a description of what Rex Ryan did against the Pats last week here (scroll down – I think I already posted this link here somewhere).
I seriously doubt Coach Smith and VanGorder will do anything that crazy, though.
Here is a proposed game-plan to stop the 2007 Patriots (published just before the Playoff game with the Jaguars). It is more based on coverage than pressure. The Jags (and Coach Smith) did something similar in the game, although it didn’t really work.
1) I love the idea from “the Blueprint” of having DE/DT/DE/LB lined up as the 4 man line, with 2 more guys at LB level, plus the 5 D-Backs (obviously when they go 2+ TE’s the base 4-3 package comes back in).
2) I think that no matter who is covering Moss (and I assume that will depend on where he lines up – I don’t expect them to switch up Williams at LCB and Houston at RCB) they should roll the Safeties his way over the top.
3) Welker/Edelman will probably get a clean release, since they’ll be back from the Line of Scrimmage – but I’m not really scared by either of them as long as they limit the YAC.
4) I think that the most effective pressure would be from straight up the middle. Whether that’s Babineaux, or Abe stunting, or LBs blitzing “A” gaps… I don’t know. But Brady was drifting in his drop-backs last week, not able to move up into the pocket, and not able to step into throws. That will hurt his accuracy.
by orang3b on Sep 24, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Thanks
And just in case nobody read it, or maybe missed it:
What’s astonishing about Randy Moss having just one catch so far is that the Jaguars are covering him and shutting him down with Brian Williams, not Rashean Mathis. To the point where they are actually moving their cornerbacks from side to side specifically to keep Williams on Moss! I went and checked, and this isn’t a size issue. In fact, Mathis (6-1) is actually taller than Williams (5-11), so they are covering Moss with the shorter of their two starting cornerbacks.
Brian Williams was doing some rope-a-dope type stuff on Moss. On the few plays I could follow Moss’ route, Williams would anticipate his route, get in his way, and slow him down. On one of the touchdowns (the one with the fake snap) this was obvious. Williams knew a double-move was coming and just ran a moving pick, not jamming Moss, just getting in his way. If Brady throws the pass, that’s a penalty. Even if he doesn’t it could be called, but Williams was just doing a good job of eating up space and making it look like contact was unintentional. A dangerous strategy that clearly had some success.
This was a year-and-a-half, almost 2 years ago – so Williams may have lost a step, but this makes me feel a lot better about him possibly matching up w/Moss.
The best defense will be our offense
Kinda ties in with the several TOP comments already made, but with the varied options we have on offense, coupled with the somewhat diminished defensive capability NE has, TOP should be in our favor. I am looking for MT to have his best game of the young season, allowing ATL to enjoy several 5 minute plus drives.
Haven’t had the chance to check weather reports yet, hoping for some mild winds at most. I believe that Elam will be afforded several opportunites to cap off those drives. My biggest worry is catching NE after their loss last week. The hornets nest syndrome is to be avoided at all costs;-) My second biggest worry is penalties. No repeat of last weeks first half showing in that regard please.
Falcons 30 Patriots 23
Also, Lions get their first win of the season this week!!!
well you know thr old saying..
“The Best Defense is a Good Offense”
our defense will need to be solid
but in reality, I think it will end up being our offense that will win this game for us. WHY? cuz we MUST score touchdowns NOT field goals at the end of drives. If our offense can put it into the endzone more often than not then we WILL win this game. Because if you notice our defense seems to be like last years in that they may let you move the ball between the 20’s but they get much better in the redzone, so trading 7 points to their 3 points a few times will win it for us. Now granted that does seem to imply that our defense wins this game for us, but not really, as I said before they just need to play SOLID, which means when they get into the redzone we make them settle for 3 points, yes they still score on us, but just not as many points as us! LOL
Lets go Falcons!!
L-DAWG
Cast?
Someone mentioned Brady used to have a good cast but it is weakened? I’m sorry, but this is the best group of receivers he has had. Back in the day he had Troy Brown as the # 1…and, hmmm, Wretched Caldwell? David Patten? Deion Branch was alright, and david Givens did alright in his time here, but they were just made to look good by Brady, as proven after they left and did jack.
Anyways, Brady is not back yet, he’s throwing off his back foot while under pressure , which has been about 75 % of the plays because our offensive line now sucks. Falcons need to pressure him to succeed. On the Pats side, they need to run the ball more often to keep the defense honest. I have never been a huge fan of the Pats running much, but they definitely need to start running more to bring some pressure off Brady.
I think this will be a mostly offensive game, with both teams at least getting in the 20’s for points. The Falcons have too many weapons on the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots to handle. Mayo’s out, I dont know who is going to “try” and cover Gonzalez, the greatest tight end in the history of the game. Matt Ryan will be in the same class with Brady and Peyton within the next 1-3 years. Turner will put up big numbers along with White having a solid game. It should be fun (and frustrating).
that was me...
and yeah, the receivers might be better, but what about the rest of the team? you don’t lose guys like Vrabel and Seymour and bounce back overnight. that and some of the guys who were on the team then don’t seem to be playing as well… Matt Light has been getting burned repeatedly. you even said yourself that the offensive line now sucks, which was never a problem back in the day.
that being said, i really think that it’s temporary… like I said, i think the Pats are just in a transitional mode as they turn over some older players and try to get younger. the Seymour move is a great example… hurts in the short term, but you know in 2010 they are going to draft someone ridiculously good to take his place. a lot of people are criticizing that move, but when you look at the situation they were in with Seymour, i think it was pretty smart.
by cheshire falcon on Sep 25, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions
(not so) bold prediction
mike peterson gets a forced fumble. :) :)
Gasp!
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
by Dave Choate on Sep 25, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
before too long I'll be waiting on my "one a games"
at least once a game Peterson get’s a forced fumble
at least once a game Tony Gonzalez catches a touchdown pass
at least once a game Alien and/or Predator get a sack
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
uh...
you know Moss actually would be the least of the falcons worries. Everyone who plays New England knows to know where moss is on the field. The curl and the out routs are what the corners have to be aware of. The LB’s should be aware of the receiver and half back screens. And everyone must stop the run at all cost.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
I know I'm probably too optimistic
But their ground game doesn’t really scare me.
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
It'll be okay, right?
Our offense may not look as dominant as the Patriots of the past, but our offense is a strong and consitant multi-headed beast. If our defense can make the Patriots offense look only slightly above average or worse we will be in good shape. Our offense has proven they will put up enough points all be it if those don’t come fast and furious like the Pats of old or that nfc south team I don’t want to think about yet. Our defense has a chance to set the tone for the entire season by being decent. Decent, they can do that right?
by Trainhopper on Sep 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Where Falcons fans come to roost.
Related FanPosts on The Falcoholic
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
