Another Look Ahead
by Adam Schultz on Sep 23, 2009 12:31 PM EDT
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PrintThis week, I've added predictions and closest two upcoming games get "X wins if, Y wins if" sections. For those that missed last week's post, the importance scale is as follows: Meh = Win or lose, this one ain't tearing at any heartstrings; Hmm = Interesting matchup, but has little effect on season; Pay Attention = This one isn't pivotal, but it could end up effecting our chances in the long run; Serious Business = Winning this one is an absolute must.
New England Patriots
Where: Gillette Stadium
When: Sunday September 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: To quote the great Nick Saban, "The NFL punishes success."
Importance: Serious Business. This is a statement game no matter who wins. For the Falcons, a win would be a big "look at us!" We have gone 2-0 for the first time in a good long time and yet we're one of the quietest teams out there. We're ranked high but media squawkers are still waiting for us to prove that we belong atop the rankings with the elites. This is the perfect opportunity. Of course, for New England, a win would say "we're not that bad!"
Notes: The Patriots are indeed beatable. The Jets managed to keep them out of the endzone. Do not, however, expect the Pats to play like that against us, especially at Gillete. This one will be a hard fought game and likely an offensive shootout. Both defenses lack a little to be desired. If our D can step up, we could win this one.
The Falcons win if: Alien and Predator (along with Babs and maybe even Anderson) get adequate pressure on Brady. As Dave the Falconer said to me "If Brady's not lying there in a twisted heap, it hasn't been a good game." Proper pressure on Brady, as the Jets demonstrated Sunday, will help the Falcons go a long way in forcing incompletes and possibly some interceptions. If we manage to create turnovers, we can stack up the points and keep the Patriots from making this one a shootout. Another thing the Falcons have to do is control the ball. If we have the lead with 2:00 to go in the fourth, we must get first downs. If Brady gets the ball back, he will orchestrate a comeback. That's just how he is.
The Patriots win if: they wake up and realize that they're the Patriots. Their defense isn't going to be stopping every one of our five quadrillion scoring assets of offense. This means we will be able to score. What the Patriots have to do is beat our defense, and the only real way they can do that is through the air. If Brady shakes his funk, his team can make this game a shootout, and the Pats excel at winning shootouts.
Prediction: Falcons lose. We keep it close all game long. Brady does his thing and Pats win on a FG.
San Francisco 49ers
Where: Candlestick Park
When: Sunday October 11th, 2009 @ 4:05pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because the Falcons were once in the NFC West for years and we met the Niners a lot. We still beat them more than %50 of the time, though.
Importance: Meh. We’re not in the West anymore.
Notes: The Niners are now 2-0. Never thought I'd be writing that this year. Bully for Singletary's group. Frank Gore scares me. Glenn Coffee does as well. That defense? Not too worried.
The Falcons win if: they play like they did the against Miami, stuffing the run and pressuring the quarterback.
The Niners win if: the Falcons are jet-lagged.
Prediction: Falcons handle 'em.
Chicago Bears
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday October 18th, 2009 @ 8:20pm
Network: NBC
Why: Last year's game was the most exciting Falcon win since the NFC Championship in 1998. The NFL is obviously hoping for a repeat.
Importance: Pay Attention. A loss here won't doom our season but it will certainly have an impact. Jay Cutler destroyed our defense last year with the Broncos and he looks to do it again this year with the Bears.
Notes: Urlacher's gone but Cutler's looking good. Defense is still iffy though.
Prediction: Falcons handle 'em.
Dallas Cowboys
Where: Cowboys Stadium
When: Sunday October 25th, 2009 @ 4:15pm
Network: FOX
Why: NFC "Powerhouse" meets NFC "Up-and-Comer." In other words, one team with potential faces another team with potential.
Importance: Pay Attention. Dallas won't take losing to the Giants really well. They're going to win the next few.
Notes: Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush! Keep Romo off kilter and the game's in hand.
Prediction: Falcons lose a very close one.
New Orleans Saints
Where: Superdome
When: Monday November 2nd, 2009 @ 8:30pm
Network: ESPN
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business. If we want the Division, we have to go through Brees and co.
Notes: The New Orleans offense is, in a word, frightening. Our defense needs to play above and beyond what it's done so far this year. This will likely be our toughest game all season.
Prediction: The Falcons lose but go down fighting. Offensive shootout of the year? I think so.
Washington Redskins
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday November 8th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Why not? The Falcons have only won 5 of the last 19 meetings of these two teams. Expect this year to be different.
Importance: Meh. This could get ugly if our D's on form.
Notes: Jason Campbell should make for some nice prey for the Abe/Biermann tandem. The Redskins look dismal on both sides of the ball. I still don't know why so many talking heads believe Campbell's the future of this franchise.
Prediction: Falcons stomp 'em.
Carolina Panthers Part Deux
Where: Bank of America Stadium
When: Sunday November 15th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business, for obvious reasons.
Notes: The Panthers will either be in ruin by this time, or be much improved. I'm expecting the latter.
Prediction: Falcons squeak by with a win.
New York Giants
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday November 22nd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: To be the best, you have to beat the best.
Importance: Pay Attention. The Giants’ running game is superb. Hopefully our D can stop it. A great midseason test.
Notes: Our rush D will be put to a heavy test. Our pass rush will be up against a big wall. Our secondary will have to account for a lot of threats. Our running and passing games will be up against a stout defense. A win here will be a big statement.
Prediction: The Falcons lose, but manage to hang a bit of points against the G-Men
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday November 29th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business. We meet Tampa late in the season this year. A young, growing team, the Bucs could have some rhythm going into this one.
Notes: The Bucs stink, so far. I no longer expect them to be decent by this time.
Prediction: Falcons stomp 'em.
Philadelphia Eagles
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 6th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because Eagles and Falcons are natural enemies.
Importance: Serious Business. Lots of history here plus You Know Who returns to the ATL.
Notes: McNabb will likely be back under center, but Michael "sack magnet" Vick will be eligible to play. Abe and Biermann will hopefully have a field day with either. The Eagles are consistently tough, and consistently kick our butts on D. With all the weapons we have now, I think the story will end a little differently this time. I’m hoping we take them behind the woodshed. If not, I’d take a regular ol’ win with a side of some stout, brick wall-like Falcons defense.
Prediction: Falcons steal a win by a touchdown or less.
New Orleans Saints 2: Electric Boogaloo
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 13th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Serious Business. With a probable loss in the Superdome, the Birds will definitely have to win here on their home turf if the division title is to be theirs.
Notes: We have to win. We have to shut down Brees, Bush, Thomas. We have to light up the passing game, rush it down their throats, and leave them begging for mercy (they won’t get any).
Prediction: Falcons lose this one. New Orleans just looks that good.
New York Jets
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday December 20th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because New Yorkers couldn’t get enough of us the first go round against the Giants.
Importance: Pay Attention. A good showing at a late road game is bound to bolster our playoff stock, should we be talented/lucky enough to have any at this point.
Notes: They beat the Patriots, yes. But they aren't that good. Offense is iffy. Defense is stout.
Prediction: Falcons win with premier offense.
Buffalo Bills
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: CBS
Why: The Bills are expected to be better this year, especially with TO in the fold. If the Pats game is any indication, as long as they take care of their mistakes, Buffalo will be quite the formidable opponent.
Importance: Pay Attention for one reason; TO versus our secondary.
Notes: When stacked against a pretty average Pats pass rush, the Buffalo OL collapsed in key situations. With our strong end rush, I don’t expect Trent Edwards to have much time in the pocket. Still, the Bills looked good against the Pats so, barring any collapses during the early and mid season, this game could be quite entertaining.
Prediction: Falcons win a close one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers With a Vengeance
Where: Raymond James Stadium
When: Sunday January 3rd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game
Importance: Either Meh if we’ve locked a playoff spot and sit our starters or Serious Business if we need a win to take control of the division and/or earn those back-to-back winning seasons.
Notes: Tampa Bay will likely be looking for a win here to build momentum going into the offseason. Let's not give it to them.
Prediction: Falcons win, even if they sit some starters.
Current season record: 2-0
Current season prediction: 11-5
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Predicting a loss to the Pats?
Say it aint so!
Actually, I probably agree. It’s gonna be hard to get consistent pressure on Brady (and I’m afraid VanGorder’s no Rex Ryan). Plus, we don’t have a Darrelle Revis to shut down Moss’ half of the field.
That 49ers game won’t be “meh” if both teams are somehow 3-0. And I think their defense is much improved. Hopefully, they can take ’em. Man, I hate the 9ers.
I would change my position based on the 49ers game if we were 2-1 rather than 3-0
2-1 going into California would mean this game is extremely important. Coming off a tough pre-bye week loss, we absolutely can’t be 2-2 at week 5 with a home game to Chicago right around the corner. I like the “Falcons haven’t lost back to back games since Mike Smith became HC stat” – so I would label that game as Pay Attention, possibly even Serious Business.
3-0 and facing the Niners would leave the game at meh. We could lose that game and after the media outrage of “maybe the Niners are the real deal” and “maybe the Falcons aren’t all that”, we’d still be okay in the long run.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
If both are 3-0 or Niners are 3-0 next week, the Meh will be upgraded.
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 23, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't necessarily label the Pats game as "Serious Business"
More like, Pay Attention.
Losing this game won’t keep us out of the playoff hunt and it is one that most of us marked in our L column long before the season started. Do to our offense showing up “as advertised” and the Patriots offense showing some blaring weaknesses as of late, that “guaranteed loss” seems to have changed in a lot of people’s minds. Sure, 3-0 would be incredibly awesome and the media outrage would be fun to soak in for 2 weeks while we enjoy a prop-filled bye week. However, we can lose this game and nobody is going to be crying “Falcons will never see the post season”.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Statement games are always serious business to me :-D
And if we show up against the Pats, and still lose, we’ll still have lots of good things to take away.
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 23, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
in all fairness, if we win that game
I’m banking we’ll be 6-0 going into NO in week 8 – I should schedule a trip to Vegas.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
NO is good, but winning the TOP and scoring touchdowns when we have the ball can beat them.
Use the formula the Pats did against the Rams in the SB…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
eh, not sure i agree...
I wouldn’t call the Pats game “serious business”. Seeing as how I hate the Patriots more than any team in football, i’d LOVE to dismantle them, but my emotion aside, I don’t see this as being a terribly important game for us, especially now that we’ve started the season 2-0.
I always tend to think of the season as being in quarters, with the goal being to have a winning record in each of those quarters. So if we can start the season 3-1 (which i’m thinking surely we can win 1 of the next 2 games, especially since game 4 is against SF), i’d consider the first quarter of the season a huge success. Yes, I know, i’d rather go 4-0 too, but 3-1 would be great considering our ridiculous schedule. And if you looked at all the games on the schedule before the season started, THIS was the game that everyone would have been able to excuse a loss on… I think most people in all honestly had already chalked this one up as a loss. So I look at anything beyond that as being a bonus.
What i find interesting about this game is that it has suddenly become a huge pressure game for the Patriots. I mean they have WAY more to lose in this game than we do… and i’m curious as to how that affects the outcome. Do the Patriots play a much more conservative, tense game now, thus making them more likely to lose? And do the Falcons play better because they can afford to just play loose and see what happens? Or does the pressure make the Patriots a better team? It certainly didn’t last week against NY, so i’m curious to see what happens here…
The problem with the Pats now is that no one really knows what they are anymore… are they still a dominant team who are just growing through the pains of getting their QB back? Or are they a once dominant team who is fading after losing so much personnel in the front office and on the field? I don’t know that this game will answer that question, but it makes it a lot more interesting.
by cheshire falcon on Sep 23, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Every game is important
Starting the season 3-0 would put us in a much better position than 2-1, as well as give us a ton of street cred for rolling over the best team of the last decade. With the futility streak and our continued growth as a team at stake, I’m taking every single game as a critical one.
And good writeup as always, tloz!
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Every game is serious business
until we lock up home field advantage and a bye.
by nathan rothschild on Sep 23, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1000000000000000000000000
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 23, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
10 wins should do it
Historically since 2002, teams with 11 wins make the tournament 94% of the time; 10 wins, 88%. Then, it gets tough. 9 wins qualifies at only a 39% rate, 8 wins, 11%. Nice post, thanks.
oh boy..
I think We’ll lose to the pats but we take it out on the niners and abliterate them(o.k. maybe not )
I think we will split the two games with NO...
We will get a win, and so will they.
by FlyYouFalcons on Sep 23, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I do too. I'm just being overly pessimistic.
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 23, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, alright
I think I thought that was what you meant (yes, I think about what I think about a lot)… thanks for clarifying
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Your brain is an Ouroboros, my friend
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Well
I think we beat the Pats. I am thinking Turner has a good game and maybe a little Gonzo thrown in. Who knows, Elam may win it with a last minute long one… lol!
Life is a garden. Dig it!
by Hardcore Falcon on Sep 24, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions
You're both delusional
But I love you just the same.
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 24, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a bit concerned
But if Turner and Roddy don’t get on-track soon, I’m going to be legitimately worried.
huh?
This is the Falcosn we are talkin about here. We are a bunch of winners…! I expect a close one but I think we win.
Life is a garden. Dig it!
by Hardcore Falcon on Sep 25, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Now is the time to show the league this team is real
i want to see 5-1 going into new orleans. If turner isnt gonna burn this week then you can believe he will after the bye week. but after such a slow start for him i expect him to get the burners superheated.
Amen
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by Dave Choate on Sep 24, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Niners will be an interesting challenge
Primarily because of Frank Gore.
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Falcons loss?
Just saw your blog post as a part of your Q&A on the Patriots Daily site (yes, I’m a Pats fan), and you predict a Falcons loss????
Well, I’m a little surprised, to be honest, I think the game is there for the taking by Ryan and co., and I guess I just expected your natural bias to go for a Falcons win. I’ll admit I’m just not too familiar with the Falcons “D”, but your offense needs no introduction (heck, we see highlights on ESPN all the time!) – plus the Gonzalez pickup? Sick! The guy is still class.
I’m hoping for a Patriot win, of course, but I think this is going to be a good game, and we’ll have our hands full, for sure.
Cheers,
David
Thanks for coming by!
I think it’s the history talking here. We Falcons fans aren’t used to sustained success….
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by Dave Choate on Sep 24, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It was tough picking against my Birds but I just don't see the Pats losing two in a row
Especially in Foxboro.
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by Adam Schultz on Sep 24, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Understood...
The “two in a row” statistic by the Patriots is a pretty – it’s been a number of years now, since they lost 2 in a row, and I’m hoping (praying, more like!) that it holds true again Sunday. I think it will be strongly tested, though, this week
Cheers,
David
by David OMalley on Sep 24, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I do...
Mark my words!!! LOL
Life is a garden. Dig it!
by Hardcore Falcon on Sep 25, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
41 STRAIGHT WEEKS WITHOUT LOSING BACK TO BACK GAMES!!!
Yes you saw that right, the pats have not lost 2 games in a row in almost 3 years!!!!
SO this will be very tough to win. With welker back for brady that sets up a lot of the running game and downfield passes to moss. Welker is brady’s security blanket, like Gonzo for matty ice, so with him in the game he will be a bigtime brady target, especially on 3rd downs!!! Without welker last week brady was lost most of the game, but with welker back I’m sure brady will be much more confident in the passing game. ANd this game is at the pats so there is another plus for them.
LETS GO FALCONS
L-DAWG
That streaks has gotta end sometime
Why not us?
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by Dave Choate on Sep 25, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Jets ended their Touchdown streak, and their 8 year win in Jersey streak
it was the first win by the Jets against Brady in their stadium… ever… This is the first time in 16 games that Tom Brady did not throw a Red Zone touchdown against the Jets.
Streaks are meant to be broken.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
Especially because we're working on getting rid of a bad one
3-0 with an exclamation point victory over the Patriots would taste pretty sweet.
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Yes, that sounds good to me...
I think it’s time they lose back to back games. Because, if you think about it, just what does it mean for a franchise to fall from the upper echelon of teams? It means that ALL their records and consecutive streak wins this and scores that come to an end spelling the end of their great run on top!! AND the opposite is true “For a team to JOIN the upper echelon of teams” they must BEGIN consecutive wins and scoring streaks!!
WHOA, did that get to deep lol
I think we win this game in a monsoon – rainy and windy game- because we can run the ball and they can’t!!
Falcons – 23
Patriots – 20
Lets go Falcons
L-DAWG
No Offense
But this list shows little faith in our team. Dont get me wrong but you have us beating the teams we are expected to but losing almost every game to teams that are recognized as the upper echelon (with the exception of NYJ). Not saying we’re going undefeated but still just saying
this sunday is very much a statement game for our birds
it will do one of two things
- either ground out our optimism and remind us that the Falcons are right about where most of us think they are.
- or completely change everyone’s predictions for this team – “16-0” talks will begin, “Best team in the league” talks will begin, “Superbowl contender” talks will begin… it’ll be magical.
The same kinda media outburst will ensue for New England too – if they win, everyone will say “it’s okay, I knew this was a good team, they were just stumbling a little bit” – if they lose, “the dynasty is over” talks will begin, “maybe Brady is done” talks will begin, “can the Patriots even make the playoffs” talks will begin… it’ll make you happy you aren’t a Patriots fan.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
It's not about faith, is it?
Faith involves what you think they CAN do. Projecting a season’s game results like this, is about what you think they WILL do.
When you predict games (or anything) publicly like that, it’s almost always best to let logic and probability rule, excluding all emotion.
Spock, out. :)
by tom slick on Sep 25, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd!
even if for nothing more than the Star Trek reference
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
I have a better quote
“Never tell me the odds!” -Han Solo
I have a sneaking suspicion that the birds are going to do just fine
by thisistherevolt on Sep 26, 2009 8:36 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
REC'D!!!
for trumping the Star Trek reference with a Star Wars reference.
Tom Brady: “Matt… I am your father…”
Matty Ice: “Nooooooooooooooo”
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
How would that even work?
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Well i guess we just have hope
that Belichick and Brady are The Emperor and Darth Vader and Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are Luke Skywalker and Han Solo respectively. No wait, scratch that Turner is Chewbacca, Roddy White is Solo, and Gonzalez is R2-D2(he is always there when you need him)
by thisistherevolt on Sep 27, 2009 1:57 AM EDT reply actions
Almost forgot
Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff are Obi-Wan and Yoda
by thisistherevolt on Sep 27, 2009 2:00 AM EDT reply actions
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