You can’t just look at carries. You also have to include receptions. Being tackled is no different regardless of how you ended up with the ball in your hands. So sure, Turner had over 370 carries, but he didn’t have the most touches. AP had more touches than Turner, yet there’s not a lot of noise about him being overused.

Maybe I just needed somebody over there to explain it to me better…

Curses: One more fantasy observation. Our “Curse of 370” theory of running back overuse gets a lot of press, which means it attracts a lot of criticism. Most of the criticism is of the knee-jerk variety: people who just hear the slogan “Curse of 370” and think that we’re naïve about the forces, like regression to the mean, that affect a running back’s statistics. Other critics think that the term Curse of 370 is a little too pat, which it is: If you evaluate complicated ideas based simply on slogans, headlines, and sound bites, you’ll find the whole world pretty pat.

Michael Turner is the current 370 poster boy and curse skeptics are predicting a banner year for him. He’s ranked in the top five by nearly every fantasy service, and the only draft I’ve seen him slip out of the top five in was the Football Outsiders office draft. (Results to be published later today!) I’ve read a few “never mind the silly curse” remarks about Turner around the Internet, which warms my heart, because it means the writer is reacting to our research.

If you don’t believe the Curse of 370, think it’s sloppy research or that our puny stats can’t measure the heart of a competitor, fine. But are you sure you want to make Turner your object lesson? A player who had one great year on a worst-to-first Cinderella team? A player with a great (though currently injured) backup in Jerious Norwood? A running back with no receiving value, which will take him out of some games when the Falcons fall behind? A player whose team acquired Tony Gonzalez, a great goal-line receiver who could leech five touchdowns from Turner just by being himself?

Our projections for Turner hover around 1,200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, depending on which version of KUBIAK you download. We don’t predict that his leg will fall off from overuse. We don’t think he’ll retire in October. We think the Falcons offense will decline, that Matt Ryan will throw more passes, that Gonzo will take away some goal-line touchdowns, and yes, that Turner will be a little less effective. Put them all together and his numbers will drop significantly. It’s not voodoo. It’s not junk science. It’s common sense. Ignore it at your peril.

- FO’s Mike Tanier, from his Walkthrough column