Positional Analysis - Defensive Line

Here we go again, now finishing up the defensive side of the ball with the Defensive Line.  I’m really going to have to move fast to cram the offense in before the start of the season.  I’m not going to have any comments on Peria Jerry, Lawrence Sidbury, or Vance Walker since they’re just rookies – just a reminder that I haven’t forgotten about them.  Most of these will be what you expect, but there are a few surprising numbers here.

Here’s a recap of some of the Football Outsider stats:

Plays: Total number of Plays including Tackles, Passes Defensed, Interceptions, Forced Fumbles, and Fumble Recoveries (Special Teams tackles are not included).

Stop: Total number of Plays that prevent "success" by the Offense (success is defined by 45% of yards needed on first down, 60% of yards needed on second down, and 100% of yards needed on third and fourth down).

Defeat: Prevent Offense from converting a first down on third or fourth down, a Tackle behind the Line of Scrimmage, or a Play that results in a Fumble or an Interception.

Run Yards (RunYd): Average Yards gained on Runs this defender makes the Tackle.

Stop Rate: Percentage of Run Tackles that were a Stop.

Rank: These are the ranks for the various stats.  There were 93 Defensive Ends that made enough Plays to be ranked, and 74 Defensive Tackles.

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY): the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages - Losses = 120% value; 0-4 Yards = 100% value; 5-10 Yards = 50% value; 11+ Yards = 0% value.

Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR): Some teams allow a lot of Sacks simply because they throw a lot of passes.  ASR is (Sacks + Intentional Grounding) divided by the total number of Pass Plays.  It is also adjusted for situation, since sacks are much more common on third down (especially on 3rd and long), and opponent.

10+ Yards: Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.

Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.

DVOA: The majority of the ratings featured on FootballOutsiders.com are based on DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

 Overall

The Run Defense was the weakest aspect of the team last year – Pass Defense was ranked #17 by DVOA (and most of the problems in coverage was the Linebackers fault), but the Run Defense was ranked #25 by DVOA.  If you prefer more standard stats, the Falcons were #25 in Rushing Yards Allowed, and #28 in Yards Allowed per Carry.  I had assumed that was mostly the Defensive Tackles’ fault, but as you’ll see blame mostly lies at the feet of the Defensive Ends (with plenty of blame left over for the Linebackers, too).

The Falcons ALY was #19 in the league – just below average.  They ranked #5 in Power situations, and #9 in runners "Stuffed" behind the line, but only #24 in percentage of runs over 10+ Yards.  That means that once a runner got past the D-Line, he was off to the races.

The Pass Rush ranked higher than I expected, with the #10 ASR, but almost all of that production was coming from one man.

Defensive End

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John Abraham was a one man wrecking crew last season.  He was #4 in QB Hits, #1 (with 33 total) in QB Knockdowns (Sacks + Hits), and was tied for #6 in Hurries.  He had 22 Defeats (most on the D-Line).  His average tackle came 1.4 Yards behind the line of scrimmage, which was #1 for all Defensive Ends.  Ah, but here’s the problem: he is a one-dimensional player.  He was only credited with 17 Run "Plays".  The team’s ALY was #23 around Left End, and #31 behind Left Tackle (where he is usually lined up – ALY was much better in other directions).

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Well, I might as well lump these guys together...  I’ve been a pretty big Jamaal Anderson defender here, but his numbers do not impress (is it bad that I couldn’t find a good picture of him in action?  Probably so).  But then again, the numbers from Chauncey Davis weren’t any better.  What I really need to see is a break-down of how many plays each were on the field, and how often Anderson was lined up at DT.

Yes, Chauncey topped Anderson 4.0 Sacks to 2.0 Sacks, but Anderson was ahead 3-0 in "Hits" (which would be a 5-4 lead in QB Knockdowns), and Anderson also had an 8-6 advantage in Hurries.  Anderson spent some time at Tackle, with Chauncey coming off the edge on third downs (prime-time for pass rushers), but Anderson also probably was on the field for more total snaps.  The main problem?  Even if their numbers were combined, that is only a fraction of the pass rush generated by John Abraham.

Those supporting sticking with Anderson over Chauncey usually cite that he is better against the run.  Well, maybe in 2007 that was true, but it was not the case last year (it was pretty much a dead heat, but Chauncey was slightly ahead in both RunYds – 1.8 to 2.7 and Stop Rate – 77% to 74%, plus he led 30-23 in Run "Plays").  Anderson was about the same in 2007 and 2008 in stopping the Run, but Chauncey improved his numbers greatly (to compare their numbers line-by-line, see their Player Pages – now freely available!! – from Football Outsiders: Jamaal Anderson, Chauncey Davis).

I think the coaches are doing the right thing with these two: rotate them in and out, move them around, and give them both plenty of playing time and plenty of rest.  They seem to offer roughly the same value in Run Stopping and Pass Rush.  Heck, I might even advocate putting them both on the field more on first downs (with Abraham coming off) to stop the Run, and increasing our chances at more third and long situations (with Abraham definitely back in).

Kroy Biermann wasn’t on the field enough to really make a dent in these numbers (he was only credited with 14 "Plays").  One thing stuck out at me, though – in his little bit of playing time (he had 2% of the team’s total Plays), he came up with 7 Defeats.  Yes, some of that is because a lot of his playing time was on third downs, but compare that to Anderson (7 Defeats) and Chauncey (12 Defeats), and it really is an impressive number.  I think he is going to be a big contributor this season.

Defensive Tackle

 I didn’t realize just how effective the Defensive Tackles, and especially Grady Jackson was last year.  He was #5 in the league with 1.2 RunYds allowed.  In quite the contrast from runs to the left side, the team was #8 in ALY on runs up the middle.  But clogging the middle was just about all Grady had to offer – at 36 years old, the team made the right choice to draft his replacement and allow him to sign elsewhere.

via atlantafalconstalk.com

The good news is that Jonathan Babineaux is back (and with that 5 year extension he signed last year, will be here for a while).  His 1.4 RunYds allowed was #9 in the league for DT’s.  His 39 Plays was the most on the Falcons D-Line, and his 19 Defeats was second only to Abraham.

In addition to his Run Stopping ability, he added 3.5 Sacks, 8 Hits, and 10 Hurries as a Pass Rusher.  He really has proven himself to be possibly the best (and most complete) Defensive Tackle in the division, and in the upper echelon of DT’s in the entire NFL.

Trey Lewis is expected to be a contributor this season, after missing all of last year with an injury.  In 2007 (as a rookie), he only had 19 Plays, but notched 4 Defeats and an 84% Stop Rate in his limited playing time.

So what's the bottom line?  After watching Babineaux and Lewis this pre-season (not to mention Peria Jerry and Thomas Johnson), I think the Defensive Tackle spot is in pretty good shape.  Unfortunately, I don’t think I can say the same thing about the all-around play of the Defensive Ends.

Defensive Backs

Linebackers

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