An Atlanta Falcon Discussion: Projecting Tony Gonzalez

by Dave the Falconer on Jul 3, 2009 11:00 AM EDT in Editorial Comment 14 comments

Yeah, we're back to the biggest free agent acquisition of the off-season. You wanna fight about it?

You're probably familiar with the format by now, but for some of our newer readers and people who might comment on this story for the first time ever--don't be shy, folks!--this is basically a projection thread. You'll be figuring out how many catches Tony Gonzalez is going to get in the year ahead at tight end, how many touchdowns, yards per catch, yards after the catch, yards after the end of the world, and so forth. We'll be looking for some kind of general consensus about the type of player he'll be and his impact on the 2009 Atlanta Falcons, so this one relies heavily on all of you weighing in.

Get it going, ladies and gentlemen.

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Mr. Anthony David for ya

74 rec
879 yds
6 tds
what is that 12 yards per catch, 4.6 rec per game
i’ll go with that

by gritzblitz on Jul 3, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alright, here goes.

First assumption: Matt Ryan will throw to Tony G a lot, especially in the red zone and when defenses give him a cover 2 look.

Now that I’ve assumed that, I’ll go ahead and assume that Jenkins and Roddy will tear it up in Man situations. What does this mean? A plethora of options for Matt to throw to. This also means that defenses will have to focus on either Tony or our WRs. Won’t be able to take both out of commission. This also also means that our production will go up.

Now that I’ve assumed all of that, I can give some numbers. Tony G has averaged about 7 touchdowns per year for the past 12 seasons. Last year, he had 10. I personally think he’ll improve 50% and get around 15 TDs, nearly all of them in the red zone.
He’s averaged about 900 yards per season the past 12 seasons. I think he’ll have around 950 this year. Receptions? 98.

My projected Tony G stats: REC – 98, YDs – 950, TDs – 15

You have opinions. Share them.

by tlozwarlock on Jul 3, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This post brought to you buy fanatical blind optimism.

You have opinions. Share them.

by tlozwarlock on Jul 3, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tony G will have...

a good first season with atl, but his stats wont compare with KC cuz he’s not the #1 option in the passing attack. He will be the 2nd or 3rd reads when he is in to run a passing route. But at least 1/3 of the time he’ll be in for blocking purposes. So 98 rec. is unrealistic in my book, as well as 15 td’s. I ‘m going to go with more solid realistic numbers, such as:
71 rec’s, 836 yds rec. , and 9 td’s.
That is a very solid season for a te, especially in our offense which is turner first, then roddy, then gonzo, jenkins, and douglas as the next tier of options, probably in that order.
And , not to mention that his superb blocking will help out turner tremendously.
I think these stats are more on target.
L-Dawg

by ATLsince1972 on Jul 3, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Those stats sound about right....

About 70 catches, 800 yards, 8-10 TDs

I think Matt will look his way a lot, but I’m already wondering how they’re going to spread the ball around enough to take full advantage of everyone. If we didn’t seem to have such a group of professionals, it might start to be a problem. But a good one to have, for sure.

Also, here’s some prop stats projections for Tony

% of runs to his side of the field – 65

of downfield pancakes on Norwood screens – 5
Appearances on B.D.S.S.P. (if they hadn’t canceled the show) – 3
Times your wife will comment on his looks – 4

by NeedATicketToTheGame on Jul 3, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanx,

yeah, I figured those as good target numbers for gonzo’s first season in a falcons uni.
I like the “times your wife will comment on his looks” stat, LMAO!
Here’s some:
Number of commercials done with Matty Ice – 2
Additional endorsement deals , now that he’s in the A – 3

of gonzo jersey’s worn by women at a home game – 1,246
LOL
L-Dawg

by ATLsince1972 on Jul 3, 2009 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this is a bad year to be a pass catching TE in the NFC south.

We’ll be facing 4 teams that run 3-4 defenses. The OLBs are usually quicker, and more able to stay with TEs. TG will still get open, but this will be a down year for stats even if his play is great. I predict 58 catches for a little over 600 yards. That’d be a 11-12 yard average which sounds about right. However, I expect he’ll catch more than his share of TDs. I put the number at 12, maybe a few less if Aaron Kelly make the roster. He can run the fade very well, and safeties will be keying on TG in the red zone.

I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.

Elayne Boosler

by NaGaNole on Jul 3, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Considering Matty Ice hasn’t established a true redzone threat through the air yet, and the “chemistry” between him and TG have that I keep hearing about second hand from reporters who saw 10 minutes of no pads practice…..ok so the “chemistry” thing is out but still…..I can foresee a crapload of play-action touchdowns in the red zone. He will no longer be the focal point of the passing game as he is used to, so his yards prob go down. His real impact will be the pressure he takes of the running game. I don’t do number predictions, but 65 / 750 / 11 isn’t all that crazy considering. 11 seems high, but I really love to think about TG catching all those lost opportunities that either went through Peele/Hartsock/Jenkins/etc hand’s or went uncalled for obvious reasons.

by BabyGoatEater on Jul 4, 2009 2:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my predictions

Catches: ∞
Touchdowns: ∞
Yards Receiving: ∞

Oh yeah… I went there.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Jul 5, 2009 12:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a QBs dream come true

GREAT acquisition! TG will add much needed red zone strength to the falcs.. not only as a pass catcher but he is also a devastating blocker. i believe youll see a lot of play action in the red zone with Mr.T. catching 11 to 14 td passes. this may seem like a lot to some people but you have to remember the falcons offense will be in the red zone more often than most teams with their offense…he is beneficial in many ways. he is a great run blocker.. runs great routes,,, good hands. better than avg speed… defenses must account for him so his mere presence takes pressure off of the run game and the wide outs..looking forward to the season……………GO FALCONS!!!!!

by samrp on Jul 5, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've got

Rec: 60-70
Yds: 700-800
TDs: 6-8

I’m just not sure what to expect from him (I’ve still got Roddy as the #1 option with ~80/1200/7), so I went pretty conservative with his numbers…

by orang3b on Jul 6, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he isnt the red zone man though

in the red zone they will run the ball thats the way it was last year and there willing to do it again like for real on third and 1 on the one yard line who wouldnt give it to the burner

by mistab50 on Jul 6, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs