Winning Factors

by orang3b on Jul 2, 2009 5:25 PM EDT

mgrex03 over at Stampede Blue has put together a very compelling series about what factors lead to winning. The latest entry is Drive Success Rate (Football Outsiders DSR ranks for 2008 are found here). Drive Success Rate basically means every time a team has a first down, what are the chances the team picks up another first down (or TD). He calculated every game from the last 8 seasons, and found that the average team’s DSR is 69.1%. Teams that were above average on Offense won 66.5% of the time; teams that were above average on Defense won 65.4% of the time; and teams that were above average on Offense and Defense won 89.1% of the time. The Falcons (22-0) were one of only two teams that didn’t lose a single game since 2001 when the Offense and Defense were above average in DSR.

He also has a table of stats with their correlation to winning (DSR is #1 right now), and lists some other stats to come in this series. Number two on the list is Adjusted Net Pass Yards per Attempt. ANY/A is a Pro Football Reference stat that is yards per attempt, but also includes bonuses and penalties for TDs, INTs, and Sacks.

The main point of interest with some of the stats in his table is that it helps disprove the "Run the Ball/Stop the Run" to win myth (Yards per Carry and RB Success are bringing up the rear as it relates to winning). A quality passing game and the ability to stop the pass are the main factors in deciding who wins football games in today’s NFL.

The good news? Last year the Falcons were #4 in ANY/A on Offense (Matt Ryan had a ridiculous 6.7 ANY/A as a rookie last year – league average was 5.3). The Defense was just below average, allowing 5.6 ANY/A (tied for #19), but with all the attention given to the Defense this off-season, hopefully that number will improve.

Please take the time to read through the "Finding the Winning Factors" series - it really is great work.

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Excellent read

I’m always learning something new around here, by reader or fellow blogger.

by Dave Choate on Jul 4, 2009 1:25 AM EDT reply actions

I believe Dave might be the most friendly blogger ever!

You are doing a great job with this site Dave!

A man walks into a meat shoppe and goes to the counter. The cashier asks, "Thinking about buying some meat?". The man replied, "No, I'm going to buy meat, I was thinking about punanny."

by bwellnjonesco on Jul 7, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

You saying gondee isn't friendly?

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Jul 8, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Gondee is like the rich business man father. He does an awesome job, but he doesn’t seem like he is ever home. He hardly ever posts comments to other fan’s FANPOSTS.

A man walks into a meat shoppe and goes to the counter. The cashier asks, "Thinking about buying some meat?". The man replied, "No, I'm going to buy meat, I was thinking about punanny."

by bwellnjonesco on Jul 8, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions

A-W-E-S-O-M-E

The Falcons (22-0) were one of only two teams that didn’t lose a single game since 2001 when the Offense and Defense were above average in DSR.

Is that a result of excellent special teams play? That is the only explanation I can think of.

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Jul 8, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

Considering we somehow found a reason to play Adam Jennings…I doubt it….jkjk, but seriously I could not stand that guy ever since we drafted him (I didn’t like the idea of drafting someone very small that didn’t play much in college).

Other than Jennings, our ST (particularly defense) play has seemed to be pretty solid.

A man walks into a meat shoppe and goes to the counter. The cashier asks, "Thinking about buying some meat?". The man replied, "No, I'm going to buy meat, I was thinking about punanny."

by bwellnjonesco on Jul 8, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Well,

The average team won 89.1% of the time with above average DSR on Offense and Defense, so the Falcons should have expected to lose two of those games under those conditions (be 20-2, for 90.9%). Those two extra games (in the last 8 years) very well could have featured excellent special teams play – that’s certainly the main gameplay factor not accounted for in DSR… but it’s hard to know for sure without seeing each game individually.

by orang3b on Jul 8, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions