Since the sporting season has in my view come to a complete hault with baseball as the only means of entertainment (I hate baseball by the way) I thought that we should breakdown the Falcons and what parts of our team will be the focal point of our team and how we shape our identity for the upcoming season.

I have seen this happen all to often in sports, a team is given the title of being future contenders and they fall from grace and people often ask themselves, "How did we not see this coming?" An example is the Cleveland Browns. Remember the media touting them as leaders of the gritty AFC North and possible playoff steamboats? I do. Everyone looked at an offense that had gained a weapon on offense and improved its weak defense. Sound familiar?

Lets break it down to each aspect our our team: Passing game, Running game, Run Defense and Pass Defense and finally individuals that may or may not have an impact on the team and its success.

Passing Offense

Matthew Ryan. You would think this would sum it up but there's a lot more to the teams success through the air than just the QB. Okay you have Roddy White, who is an all-star calliber receiver. However, I feel that the success of Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas have fuelled what was a consistent passing game. Now we are not the New Orleans Saints, nor do I think we will become them in their take on what an offense does. What this team has and will do is move the chains. Consistently last season Matty was able to find both Jenkins and White on third downs when we needed to convert. This reminds me a lot of both the Patriots and the Colts. Both teams are not the most explosive air out offenses but they get it done. Jenkins reminds me of Brian Finneran. A large target who when he catches the ball converts for a first down. Tony Gonzalez people say will really make Matt Ryan a better player. While I agree with this on a whole I think peoples line of think is slightly detracted. TG is not going to catch 5-8 balls a game. He may have a couple of games like that later in the season. But I think mostly Tony is going to provide Matty Ice with another option. Not another 80 catches for 1000 yards in a season but another guy the defense has to worry about. In that, I think that the development of our offensive line combined with this young receiver corps should make us a threat not only this year but the years to come.

2009-10 Prediction: Matt Ryan 20+ TD's with 10 INT, White stats similar to last year, expect Jenkins numbers to decline slighty as Gonzalez emerges throughout the year as well as High Defintion, Harry Douglas.

Matt Ryan Highlights 2008 Regular Season (via PhiladelphiaFalcons)

Running Offense

I think it is safe to say that if there is any part of our team that is the most dangerous and diverse it is our run game. Here we have a big time bruiser in Michael Turner (who does have speed) combined with a nippy, change of pass, lightning bolt in Jerious Norwood. I hounstly believe that we are right there with running back tandems such as the Cat Attack (Panthers).

Something that has been on the lips of almost everyone is, "Will and how will Norwood get involved in the offense to relieve pressure of the Burner?" I think to find our answer we have to look towards to back end of our past season. Take particular not of the Rams game. Now I know they are the Rams and not the best of teams out there. But Norwood's involvement sparked the Falcons to come out with an important win heading into the playoffs.

With this was the development of the Dirty Bird formation which entailed Norwood and Turner line up in the backfield as Norwood acting as the QB. By no means should this be implemented reguarly this season but it indicates the creativity willing by the Falcons coaching staff to get Norwood onto the feild.

2009-10 Prediction: Hopefully Turner gets less carries than last year while still producing at a similar rate. Norwood gets involved, makes some impact but not a huge deal.

Passing Defense

I think if there is one area that frustrated me most last season was that of our secondary. We were 28th in the league at interceptions better than teams like Detroit and worse than teams such as the Rams and the Chiefs. We now have a bunch of corners that have an oppurtunity to shine. Chris Houstan, Von Hutchins, Chevis Jackson, Brent Grimes combined with newcomers Chris Owens and William Middleton make up a solid group of defensive backs. However history shows that the Falcons have never had a solid group of defensive backs that force turnovers not since 2004 have we cracked the top 10 in intercpetions. And only once have we lead the lead in some form of takeaway when in 2003 we lead the league in forced fumbles.

Figure 1: Rank is on the Y-Axis, being 1st in the league at the bottom.

Figure 2:

This is the passing defense. On one occasion have we been under the 200 yards per game mark. Compare this graph with the other (the interceptions) and it becomes obvious that our best group of DB's was either the 2004 championship run or 2005. My point is this. We have not had a renound, gritty defense since Jessie Tuggle was around or the gritz blitz defense. Ever since 2004 we have been mediocre at best. I think that if our expectations were to fail us it will be in this youthful department.

Getting interceptions will be difficult as none of our current CB corps have over 3 interceptions in one season. In fact Eirk Coleman is the only guy in the whole Defensive Backfield to have over 3 interceptions in a season at 4. This was during his rookie season so since then he has not surpassed his total. Forget the pass rush for a moment, if a good defensive backfield can cover their guys then it forces the QB to hold onto the ball more, thus creating more sacks. 2004 we were 9th in the league at interceptions, that same year we lead the league in sacks. Coincidence? Doubtful, it was the last time that our defensive backs allowed our pass rush to get sacks while getting some interceptions of their own.

Run Defense

Im not going to go into the numbers heavily. But a solid defensive line is what will allow us to improve in run-stop ability. By shortening the history stick and just looking at 2008 we were ranked 25th in Run D by giving up a gaunlet of yards in 2046. That is huge. Now having a somewhat new DT rotation with youth and a healthy Trey Lewis hopefully we can block up the holes that were ever present last year.

Last years defense was not really about making game changing plays nor was it about being "tough nosed". Last years defense made stops when they needed too. Making a team settle for a field goal or getting a key 4th down on the halfway mark.

By not trying to be pessimistic I think it is boom or bust time. Countless times have promised shown up only to be shattered the next season. Tlozwarlock got me thinking about how the consensus is for us to have a winning season. I believe we will have a winning season. But it starts with our defense. If they show up in the first 3 weeks against Detroit, St.Louis and San Deigo then I think it will be the confidence to propell them to averageness, as per Figure 1 and 2.

New Acquisitions

 What can we expect from our rookies? Bust our numbers. Or perhaps just provided depth. I think the latter applies in relations to our new young guns. But again expect Tony G to operate in an altered offense compared to last years which involves more bootleg options to the tight ends both Justin Pelle and TG. As well getting offensive line depth has been important to TD as he has gone out and signed three experienced guys to compete in training camp.

What this has to do with our expectations is that it heightens them up. New rookies are a sign of promise, and getting a hall of fame Tight End increases that promise. But be wary Falcons fans because all to often in sports expectations are often never met. No back to back winning seasons in franchise history has to mean something, small steps are needed to break it.