A Very Falcoholic Discussion: Projecting Matt Ryan
by Dave Choate on Feb 4, 2009 8:00 AM EST
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Put on your stat caps, ladies and gentlemen, because we're going to try to use our fantastical mind powers to see into the future. Rather than use it for something useful like destroying the robots that will enslave our race or picking up Halo 7, we're going to figure out what Matt Ryan will do next year.
Can Ryan repeat his successful rookie season, or is a sophomore slump inevitable? Can he completely destroy last year's numbers? Will his brother ever smile when watching Matty Ice play?
Only you can tell, so go nuts.
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I think he'll be better
I think his arm started to give out towards the end of the year (16 games is a lot more than 12), but he’ll bounce back and light up the league next year. Unless he is like Vince Young and has a great rookie year and then collapses under the pressure and has to have Kerry Collins replace him.
On an unrelated note, Halo 7 is sweet and the robots are not too bad
Statgeekery
The guys at pro-football-reference.com (who are impartial statisticians, and not Falcon fans) did some pretty impressive analysis of Ryan’s season in early December, concluding:
As long as Ryan doesn’t implode the rest of the season, he will finish the 2008 season as the greatest rookie QB of all time.
Good Stuff
I like stats in baseball, especially the heavy stuff … although sabermetrics can be tough to grasp.
I wonder how telling their stat analysis really is though. While A LOT of what you do in baseball amounts to individual effort, football is seemingly the complete opposite. Everything Matty Ice does will be affected by how the rest of the offense performs, which is usually not the case in baseball. Just a thought …
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
For discussion purposes
I’m going to make a wildly irresponsible and completely farcical prediction about Ryan next year.
He’ll go 270/455 for a 59 percent completion rate, which will be a slight backslide from last year. With roughly 20 more attempts and the training wheels off, I believe he’ll pass for about 25 TDs against 15 INTs. He’ll run about 45 times for 120 yards and punch in at least 2, despite every Falcon fan in the nation having a cardiac arrest every time he tries it.
That’s just a general prediction. What would you guys predict?
Prediction (totally unscientific)
330/500 for a 66 percent completion rate. 24 TDs/12 INTs and 4 rushing TDs.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
a little optimism?
Those numbers would be incredible – Imagine if he pulls those numbers with Turner pulling a repeat of this last season.
Best offense in the NFL anybody?
Ryan's sophomore season
I think Ryan will continue to improve, complete a higher percentage of passes, and generally do a better job in the early and latter stages of the season than he did in his rookie campaign. I am hopeful that the team will remain committed to a strong running game, which will keep his attempts per game in the 26-32 range. Expecting that his performance will be less “curvilinear” than last year, I am hoping for numbers like this:
282/448 for over 3,700 yds, with 22 TDs and 15 INTs.
I think he’ll throw a few more interceptions because he’ll be asked to do more, and he’s still at that phase of his career where he hasn’t quite gotten over the urge to try and make things happen when he should just throw the ball away.
Hmmm Stats!
Pass Percentage -1% <→ 3% over the previous year.The playbook will be open.The training wheels taken off.This will result in a more productive Matt Ryan in the passing game but may yield the same results % wise for passing percentage.
Passing Yards This will dependent upon if and who we get to fill the TE position this off-season. I see an increase of 725-900 passing yards.Roddy White will once again fight for the top receiver in the league and with an improved cast of surrounding players and a year under there belt I think this estimate is pretty reasonable.
INTs I think Matty Ice will hover around between 12-14.Outside of the Arizona game Matty Ice was pretty solid during the second half of the season and his decision making skills were pretty darn good.
Tough to say
…without having a more complete knowledge of what his surrounding cast will look like. White (along with Jenkins, and Douglas) appears to be a more-than-capable option for Ryan, but as has been noted here, there has to be a big option in the middle (tight end).
My gut feeling is that for the Falcons to have the success of last year repeat itself, Ryan’s attempts will need to jump up to the 500-520 range, and he’ll need to complete at least 300 of those. That would mimic the results of this year while keeping some wear off of Turner.
Really
I think we need to be a little more realistic when we are looking to next year.. Sophmore seasons have always been rough for QB’s and I dont think this is going to be any different for Ryan. He is going to be facing the AFC East and NFC East who both have some staunch D’s.
I have never made predictions because I am not a real big stat guy but lets say 280/520 for a 53% completion and 3600 yds. Also he will get 22 TD’s to 15 INT’s. As far as rushing, lets leave that to those who can actually see into the future.
by HitImeSonfalcons on Feb 5, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions
"sophomore seasons have always been rough"
Not for Matty Ice.
His tears cure cancer.
Oh, and when he got his signing bonus last year, he bought a special computer w/out a “ctrl” button. He told ‘em, "I don’t need it. I’m always in control."
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
My prediction.
Matt begins the season shakily. In the first game, he goes 12/30 for 1 INT and 0 TDs. Turner burns us the win anyway.
For the rest of the season, Matt goes 502/550 for 8,756 yards, 67 TDs, and 1 INT.
He will then reveal his true identity as Galmar, King of the Fortacular People of Theta Galaxy, and then ascend to his throne on Mount Vesuvius. After two or three Hall of Fame classes, he will be inducted, pending the approval of his green card.
"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.
The other 120 TDs unfortunately go uncounted.
Because the passes are so fast, the replays only show the receivers running into the end zone. The extra 120 go into the record books as rushing touchdowns. No evidence of a forward pass = no pass TD stat.
Incidentally, the sonic boom created by Matt’s uncounted TD passes cost the NFL nearly $30 billion in destroyed camera and audio equipment.
"If the Falcons ever manage to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime, I'll french kiss a toilet." - a friend.
You know
If he couldn’t speak telepathically, he’d be in trouble. Those sonic booms can’t be good for his teammates’ hearing.
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