Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 13

by tom slick on Dec 8, 2009 1:38 PM EST

Here's this week's tall, frothy tankard of numbers, with which to drown your sorrows. Have fun!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	89.0	Colts	12-0-0	27.6	16.8	0.865	0.915	1.780
2	83.2	Vikings	10-2-0	29.9	19.4	0.937	0.728	1.665
3	82.5	Patriots	7-5-0	27.3	18.7	0.855	0.794	1.649
4	79.8	Packers	8-4-0	26.9	19.1	0.837	0.759	1.596
5	78.4	Saints	12-0-0	36.7	20.9	0.997	0.570	1.568
6	78.2	Eagles	8-4-0	27.3	19.6	0.851	0.712	1.563
7	77.5	Chargers	9-3-0	28.5	20.2	0.898	0.653	1.551
8	74.2	Cowboys	8-4-0	23.3	17.8	0.623	0.861	1.484
9	72.1	Cardinals	8-4-0	24.8	19.5	0.721	0.720	1.441
10	71.4	Bengals	9-3-0	21.2	15.6	0.473	0.956	1.429
11	71.3	Ravens	6-6-0	22.6	17.9	0.576	0.850	1.426
12	66.4	Jets	6-6-0	20.8	17.3	0.443	0.886	1.329
13	66.3	Steelers	6-6-0	22.7	19.3	0.582	0.744	1.325
14	65.0	Broncos	8-4-0	20.0	16.8	0.390	0.911	1.301
15	57.4	49ers	5-7-0	20.4	19.4	0.419	0.728	1.147
16	52.0	Texans	5-7-0	23.1	22.2	0.611	0.428	1.040
17	50.7	Giants	7-5-0	25.3	23.8	0.751	0.263	1.014
18	46.7	Falcons	6-6-0	23.3	23.3	0.623	0.312	0.935
19	43.7	Redskins	3-9-0	16.7	19.8	0.187	0.687	0.874
20	41.3	Seahawks	5-7-0	20.3	22.3	0.407	0.419	0.826
21	40.1	Dolphins	6-6-0	23.2	24.7	0.617	0.185	0.802
22	37.0	Bears	5-7-0	19.4	22.5	0.349	0.391	0.741
23	36.0	Panthers	5-7-0	17.9	21.8	0.255	0.466	0.721
24	33.5	Jaguars	7-5-0	18.8	22.8	0.306	0.364	0.670
25	32.9	Bills	4-8-0	16.6	21.8	0.183	0.476	0.659
26	25.5	Titans	5-7-0	20.5	26.3	0.425	0.085	0.510
27	16.3	Raiders	4-8-0	11.8	23.5	0.038	0.287	0.325
28	11.2	Chiefs	3-9-0	16.3	27.2	0.171	0.053	0.225
29	11.1	Lions	2-10-0	17.2	29.8	0.213	0.009	0.221
30	9.1	Buccaneers	1-11-0	15.6	27.5	0.139	0.044	0.183
31	7.8	Browns	1-11-0	12.1	25.8	0.042	0.114	0.156
32	6.4	Rams	1-11-0	11.6	26.2	0.035	0.092	0.127
			means:	21.5	21.5

Our Falcons only dropped 2 spots in the rankings, hooray? Still no stat-love for our Saints friends, nothing personal guys! The Eagles moved up 4 slots; Packers, Cardinals and Panthers up 2. Ravens & Bills were down 3.

There's your lucky week 13 numbers, friends! Spreadsheet download is here. Kampai!

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

Tweet Comment 23 comments | 4 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

No apologies needed....

I’m sure we’ll move up a little after this coming Sunday…

by TigerPaw on Dec 8, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions

Yes mired between 2 8-4 teams

and behind the pats we should increase our ranking this weekend easily

by simone219 on Dec 8, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

Youse guys could use a big game on D, ratings-wise

If Ryan doesn’t QB on Sunday, there’s your early Christmas present from Atlanta! Our offense looked horrendous without him against the Eagles.

by tom slick on Dec 8, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

The system has

A totally irrational love for the 49ers and Redskins. Not that many great defenses across the league put them near the top there. It also inexplicably hates the Jags. Well, I guess I shouldn’t say inexplicably, since they’re being outscored on the season, despite the 7-5 record. Actually explained pretty easily.

Crazy that PF and PA are exactly the same for the Falcons.

Just as much as the Saints are testing out that whole “approaching 1” thing on offense, Detroit is doing their best (worst?) as far as “approaching zero” on defense…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 8, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions

the PF and PA are the same means

that as much as we can talk up our terrible defense – we can give mad props to our offense for being able to score on every other defense like they are our terrible defense.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Dec 8, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Since week 9 (Redskins game) our D rating has really eroded

Week 9, our D rating was a respectable .602…
Week 10, .515
Week 11, .379
Week 12, .421
Now, .312 with the Saints’ offense coming to town. Egad!

by tom slick on Dec 8, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Defensive numbers for Niners & Skins

Illustrate the effects of putting the data on a curve. Those first few points beyond the mean go a looong way in jacking up a team’s D ratings. SFO seems ranked somewhat fairly to me, though WAS does appear kind of overrated, agreed.

Poor Detroit fans, they’d probably kill to be 6-6. The Lions’ D has the same PPG they ended last year with. How do you maintain hope with a defense like that? Next time I feel the need to count my football blessings, my first stop is Motown, to see how bad it CAN get.

by tom slick on Dec 8, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

Cue "Who Dat?" rant in 3, 2, 1 ...

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Dec 8, 2009 7:10 PM EST reply actions

Rant delivered right on cue, FrankyWren!

Timing is everything…

by tom slick on Dec 9, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

the irony of the matter

is I don’t think the aint’s fan even realized what he did or that he was queued to do so.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Dec 9, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

wow... I don't know what happened to my grammer in that incident

but “queued” was not the word I was going for…

what is the past tense form of the word “cue”?

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Dec 9, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

“Cued”, isn’t it?

by tom slick on Dec 9, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Haha

The Cowboys blog have a link to your power ratings on there page because everyone else has them ranked 14-17 place in power rankings
They are using this to prop themselves up and talk about how the Saints are over rated
So for all the fans that read this just keep telling yourselves the Saints are over rated

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 9, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions

No, you're wrong and uninformed as well

If you’re referring to the Power Ratings page from the Blogging The Boys site (link), you’re dead wrong. They include these ratings every week; you’d know that if you were familiar with that page, wouldn’t you now? There’s proof positive that you don’t know what you’re talking about here!

In terms of enjoying your Saints’ success, wouldn’t it be more fun for you to do something more constructive than childish, uninformed sniping at anyone who has the audacity to suggest that the Saints may not be Immortal Gods Of The Football Universe? All the people I know, outgrew that kind of behavior when they were pre-teens.

by tom slick on Dec 9, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions

Thank you, Tom

by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 13, 2009 7:01 AM EST up reply actions

Might not be interesting to you, as a Saints fan

But here’s a great analysis showing that “the 2009 Saints and 2009 Colts simply are not dominating the league like undefeated teams of the past”. I won’t call the Saints over-rated, but they are not nearly as far ahead of teams like Philly, GB, Minny, and ARI in overall team strength as their record would indicate…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 9, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Nice article

Thanks for the link. Not to sneeze at 12-0, but there are a lot of people who will readily agree that the Saints’ D is not quite of elite caliber. This year’s postseason is going to be interesting (even if Falcon-less).

by tom slick on Dec 9, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

My own Power Ranking is done!

I’ll try to post it today.
Falcons are at 18th place too.

The most interesting is that Saints are the best team in the Off. rating, and Colts in Def. rating. And a Colts-Saints game can be a possible Super Bowl match. So, it would be the game of “the best offense” against “the best defense”. Cool…

by BrunoH on Dec 10, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions

I'd love to see Saints-Colts, as well

Say what they may about the Saints’ D, they’re an exciting team to watch. Their game against the Pats was awesome. Got to love the Colts, too. They didn’t rest on their offensive laurels, as a result they’re quite formidable on both sides of the ball now.

by tom slick on Dec 10, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Give us a break here....

I have an old tee shirt that say’s “New Orleans, a Drinking Town with a Football problem”.
I usually have to wear it. Not this year… Anybody but Dallas !!!! Who Dat !!!

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading". Henny Youngman

by CaddoCoonass on Dec 11, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions

Hi ya', Tom.

Thanks for the Saint’s #5 rating. That’s just about how far under the radar we like to stay. And the Colts on top? Hey, thanks again!

Now I know coach Payton has said that he wants to run the table. Not quite the “under the radar” concept, right? But what do you expect him to say, “We think a loss to the Falcons would be good for our ego?”

The Saints stand in the way of the Falcons’ hope for a playoff wild card. The Falcons stand in the way of the Saints locking in home field advantage. Now, y’all be the good Southern Gentelmen that you are and just roll over and stop all this nonsense!!!

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers

If we're not suppose to eat animals, why are they made of meat?

by Just 'Nother Day on Dec 11, 2009 11:04 PM EST reply actions

Hey

My humble ratings have tried their best all year to keep your Saints underrated, haven’t they? Only you, sir, have been perceptive enough to unmask my hidden agenda! Curses!

That Payton stuff makes you laugh and wince simultaneously. Sports and sports media need each other to survive, but the questions can be SO stupid, even insulting.

The Falcons won’t roll over, albeit in the sense that Custer’s men didn’t roll over at Little Big Horn. I could make the case that a Saints loss Sunday would take the pressure off, and allow youse guys to focus on the postseason, but it’s getting late. Good luck, starting Monday!

by tom slick on Dec 12, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions