DVOA Matchup - Philadelphia Eagles

I didn't do the Matchup post last week while I was out of town, but I'm back on track now.  I'm glad Tloz gave us a good ol' shot of optimism, but DVOA paints a different picture.  To put it bluntly, it's going to take a minor miracle to beat the Eagles, if we believe these numbers.  (Reminder, DVOA explanation here).


When the Falcons have the ball:

Our Running Game against their Run Defense looks to be about even.  We are clearly at a disadvantage in the Passing Game, though.  The Eagles are #2 in Pass Defense against #1 WRs (allowing only 43 yards per game to top wideouts), and #6 agains "other" WRs.  We're going to have to hope for a big game from Michael Jenkins, since they're only #18 against #2 WRs.  They are #11 in Defensive DVOA (on a per-play basis) against TEs, but are allowing 70 yards per game (league average is 50 yards), since teams are trying to attack them this way (over 9 passes per game to opposing TEs).

Again the Variance looks to be in our favor.  They are generally a good Defense, but occasionally have very poor games.  We've consistently been in the middle of the pack Offensively, but injuries may make even that fairly low standard of output difficult to reach.

Like the Matchup with the Giants, the two Offensive Lines have fairly similar numbers, but our opponents have the vastly superior Defensive Line.  They are #6 in Adjusted Line Yards (Run Defense) and #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate (we are obviously well south of these numbers).

Their best player on Defense is Trent Cole, and he is an absolute stud as a pass rusher and against the run.  The weakest link on their "D", according to PFF, is Safety Sean Jones.  Hopefully Mularkey can find a way to get him or LB Chris Gocong consistently matched up with Tony G.

When the Eagles have the ball:

That Rush Offense looks a little wonky to me, but remeber that it is an efficiency number.  Andy Reid likes to maintain that 25-75 Run/Pass Ratio (I'm only exaggerating a little), so teams have to gameplan for the Passing Game.  Again, Philly is near the bottom of the league in Variance.  They may come out gangbusters, or they may come out totally flat.

Our Pass Defense is sandwiched between STL and CLE - not good company, to say the least.  We are now below average in every aspect of Pass Defense:  Defending WRs, TEs, RBs, and Sack Rate.  Against WRs is especially bad: #32 against #1 WRs, #27 against #2 WRs, and #28 against "other" WRs.  You would think having DeSean Jackson out would provide hope, but DVOA says both Jeremy Maclin (8.8% DVOA, 12.9 YPC) and Jason Avant (31.3% DVOA, 76% Catch Rate) have been better (on a per-play basis, at least).  I don't expect either of them to have any trouble.  TE Brent Celek should have plenty of room to operate, as well.

Special Teams:

Hopefully with the recent changes, we won't have the worst FG/XP team from this point forward.  We are still first in Kickoffs/KO Coverage, though.  David Akers makes Philly well above average in FG/XP and Kickoffs/KO Coverage.  The Eagles are the #3 team in Punt Returns (and the Falcons are well below average in Punts/Punt Coverage), but without DeSean Jackson, they may not be as dangerous.  Then again, if Maclin fills in there too, they may not miss a beat.

Overall:

Even though the records are similar, the numbers show that the Eagles are a much stronger team overall.  Football Outsiders puts about even with teams like Indianapolis and Minnesota, while the Falcons are just ahead of teams like San Fransisco and Jacksonville.  Taking into account all the injuries to the stars on offense, our biggest advantages look to simply be Homefield Advantage, and the Eagles crazy Variance numbers.  This is one of the most important games of the year, and looks like one of the toughest.  Thank goodness they play the games on the field, not on paper (or inside computers).