Remaining Opponents' Records: Crunchin' the Numbers

by tlozwarlock on Dec 3, 2009 9:55 PM EST in Editorial Comment 21 comments

I did a little soul searching and some number crunching and found out that the Falcons are actually 8th in the NFL in total points/points per game scored. Not a bad little stat. We also happen to be a dismal 19th in points allowed. That humbles it a bit, but so far (at least at home), we've been able to outscore our opponents by at least a field goal in each win. It's also become apparent to me that we've managed to win each our of home games by a margin of nine points or better. Not too shabby. On the road, that changes a bit, where we're a maddening field-goal or less under our opponents. Yes, you read right, in our road games, we usually lost by an average of three points. Puts that kicker change into perspective, huh? Purely a football decision? Bingo.

So here's what I did: I took our opponents' average Points Scored, subtracted their average Points Allowed, and compared that differential to the Falcons positive 3 differential between the same two stats. Here's the rundown:

Opp	Diff
Eagles	6
Saints	17
Jets	3
Bills	-5
Bucs	-12

With that in mind, I then took a look at the Falcons Road and Home PS/g and PA/g to adjust the Falcons' differential. For the record, I didn't do this for the other teams (I don't have that much free time). Here are those numbers:

Road PS/g	26
Road PA/g	28

Which, before rounding, gives us a -2.8 points on the road, so -3 it is.

Home PS/g	24
Home PA/g	15

That gives us a +9, give or take a tenth or two, at the Dome.

Next, I took a look at how our backups performed in the last game after Ryan, Turner, et al left the game. The team ended with a +3 differential. I'll use that as a negative to adjust for the fact that we'll have backups in key positions.

Here's everything put together:

Opp	Where	Falc Diff	Backup Diff	Home or Away Diff	Opp Diff	Outcome
Eagles	Home	+3	-3	+9	6	3
Saints	Home	+3	-3	+9	17	-8
Jets	Away	+3	-3	-3	3	-6
Bills	Home	+3	-3	+9	-5	14
Bucs	Away	+3	-3	-3	-12	9

Yes, these are merely numbers and do not factor in any intangibles, but it still appears as if I was a bit hasty calling for a 7-9 season. With a 3-2 record in the remaining five games, we'll end the season out of the playoffs but grasping that ever important first-ever back-to-back winning seasons. And really, that's all I'm asking for at this point.

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Here here

After the game in Carolina this was my thoughts aim for 9-7 and I’m happy, playoffs and I’ll streak he local park (at night obviously, don’t want to scare the kids)

go hard or go home

by TO falcon on Dec 3, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like!

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Dec 3, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I looked at our schedule and others..

And here’s what I found bare with me…

Packers look to go 10-6 with loses to the Ravens and Steelers, We will probably go 9-7 with loses to the Eagles and Saints, The eagles go 10-6 with loses to Broncos and Cowboys, Giants either 8-8 or 9-7 and Cowboys win their division going 11-5.

This is why the Philly game is all the more significant because if we win it gives a better shot at the playoffs and going 10-6 and flips the records. I think 10 wins this year gets you into the playoffs, I really think that 9 is where we will end up but even still the Jets could beat us and Tampa could be swinging by the last game.

Like Tloz said all I care about is that 9th win playoffs would be nice but its sounding more and more difficult, Sunday against the Eagles will be crucial.

Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003

by Grayson on Dec 3, 2009 11:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Jets aren't that good.

Numbers/points/etc aside, they lost Sanchez for a little while tonight, and they barely beat the Bills.

I don’t think I’m out of line by saying We’ll beat the Jets/Bucs/Bills and lose to Eagles/Saints.

We MIGHT beat the Eagles if our backups play like starters.

"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!"

by Zippo729 on Dec 4, 2009 2:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

To bad about injuries...

I believe that if we had dodged the injury bug and had Ryan and Turner the rest of the season we would’ve reached 10-6. But without those guys playing I do see us losing that game against Philly instead of winning it. So that puts us at 9-7 as long as we take care of business against the inferior last 3 teams we face. To me, with all that has happened this year- horrible schedule, injuries- that if we can eek out a 9-7 record, then this year will have been a successful season for the Falcons, and will be a springboard into next season, when we make it to the superbowl!!!!

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 4, 2009 7:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Outsiders view

I see you beating Philly,Jets,Bills and bucs to finish 10-6
I see philly cowboys finishig 10-6 1 wins div.
I see greenbay at 10-6
I’m not sure of the tie breakers but I really believe this to be the final records
I see the Cowboys losing at the Philly Chargers and Saints that would put them at 10-6 and if they lose at Giants or washington they’re out
I see Philly winning at Giants 49ers and Cowboy’s 10-6
I see Greenbay beating Chicago Seattle and maybe Arizona thats a big maybe that would put them at 10-6
And who knows the only game I as a saints fan is worried about is you dirty bird ^%$#% being a pain in our ass and beating us in your dome

by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 4, 2009 7:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great job!

Thanks for all the time and effort to put all the stats together. Breaking the curse is more than enough to please me. With our injuries and problems with secondary I don’t see us getting too deep into the playoffs, anyway!

by Gjmoody on Dec 4, 2009 7:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

exactly!!

Even if we were to somehow make the playoffs it would be a road game for us, so therefore pretty much one and done!! I just want that winning record for the season, c’mon 9-7!!!!

by ATLsince1972 on Dec 4, 2009 7:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

its all good info, The problem is, how do you factor in the fact that we owe someone an arse whoopin and they we are going to deliver it to them regardless of the numbers. If we dont beat the Aints in the dome I am going to be extremely angry.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Dec 4, 2009 7:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I love this Tloz

Thanks for giving me a little hope for that elusive winning season, and pumping some optimism our way. One question, though:

we’ve been able to outscore our opponents by at least a field goal in each win

Is this the “Falcon Difference”, and if so, doesn’t that mean you’re already predicting them to win before you plug the rest of the numbers? The only game that would make a difference is the Eagles game, which would turn into a Pick ‘Em… Maybe I’m just misunderstanding it, though – since the difference in PF/PA is about 2.5 in all games.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 4, 2009 8:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rounding turns it into a field goal.

And I had to separate the diffs, road versus home because with Falcons’ poor play away from the Dome, that was going to be a factor.

I just used the +3 season diff as a base. Gives them an advantage of +3 versus our opponents’ PS/PA diff.

You have opinions. We all do. Some of yours may have to do with the Falcons. Sign up today and share them.

by tlozwarlock on Dec 4, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 4, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Winning Season

That is all I care about. That will really tell if this team is heading in a positive direction.

by Chaos7 on Dec 4, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great post

Anyone interested in the mathematical side of football should be sure to check out the pro-football-reference.com blog; those guys are stats whizzes and always have something interesting to share.

I really think we can put together a 9-7 this year, or even a 10-6, and finally get the talking heads to shut up about consecutive winning seasons.

by Mad Molecule on Dec 4, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

good job with those stats

but I think this late in the season and with so many injuries to many teams, a lot will depend on the character teams display on the game day.

by Gemini-RU on Dec 4, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree ...

These stats give some perspective as to where we’ve been (performance-wise) and where our upcoming opponents have been (performance-wise), but the Birds aren’t as healthy as they’ve been (which doesn’t say much), and some of our opponents are less healthy than they’ve been, while others are more healthy than they’ve been.

With all that said, I’ll take any little dose of optimism these days.

Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?

Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.

by FrankyWren on Dec 4, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right, and when both teams are banged up

the one with greater determination will prevail.
we have better chances of winning with backups if they play like they’re willing to leave their hearts on the field. the same thing refers to our struggling defence. hey, even bad teams play spoiler sometimes, and we’re certainly not a bad team.
all this said, we have as many reasons to be optimistic, as “realistic”. let’s just hope that our team stays focused and the Dome is loud enough (had I not been ten thousand miles away, I’d come).

by Gemini-RU on Dec 4, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BLAH BLAH BLAH

Hey if we beat the Eagles, get Turner and Ryan back healthy and hand the Saints their first loss of the season, we are in the hunt with the last 3 games against subpar opponents. It will be tough granted, since we dropped the head to head vs Giants but if we win Sunday we will have the break over Philly. So, I know the Falcons have looked shakey lately, but settling for a 9-7 season with no postseason is a bit premature. 10-6 is still do-able.

by falcons11 on Dec 4, 2009 10:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wish

I just read something on either ESPN or Fox that siad that Ryan may be done for the year but that they are not putting him on IR because they are hoping to find a way to help him come back sooner. I am hoping that this is not true.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Dec 4, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Redman has been given 15-20 snaps a week all season with the 1st string offense....

And he was able to move the ball….this week he’ll get 200-250 snaps, and he’ll get more into the groove. Also, this allows him and Mularkey to discuss what he likes, and see what plays he can execute well that will work best against the Eagle defense.

"If lessons were learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education." -Murray Warmath

by NaGaNole on Dec 4, 2009 10:47 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

True

Redman is more than capable, especially since he had to play last game in reality underprepared. This time he will know he is playing on Sunday and will be ready. It does make a difference! So, don’t count them out yet.

by falcons11 on Dec 4, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs