Remaining Opponents' Records: Crunchin' the Numbers

I did a little soul searching and some number crunching and found out that the Falcons are actually 8th in the NFL in total points/points per game scored. Not a bad little stat. We also happen to be a dismal 19th in points allowed. That humbles it a bit, but so far (at least at home), we've been able to outscore our opponents by at least a field goal in each win. It's also become apparent to me that we've managed to win each our of home games by a margin of nine points or better. Not too shabby. On the road, that changes a bit, where we're a maddening field-goal or less under our opponents. Yes, you read right, in our road games, we usually lost by an average of three points. Puts that kicker change into perspective, huh? Purely a football decision? Bingo.

So here's what I did: I took our opponents' average Points Scored, subtracted their average Points Allowed, and compared that differential to the Falcons positive 3 differential between the same two stats. Here's the rundown:

Opp Diff
Eagles 6
Saints 17
Jets 3
Bills -5
Bucs -12

With that in mind, I then took a look at the Falcons Road and Home PS/g and PA/g to adjust the Falcons' differential. For the record, I didn't do this for the other teams (I don't have that much free time). Here are those numbers:

Road PS/g 26
Road PA/g 28

Which, before rounding, gives us a -2.8 points on the road, so -3 it is.

Home PS/g 24
Home PA/g 15

That gives us a +9, give or take a tenth or two, at the Dome.

Next, I took a look at how our backups performed in the last game after Ryan, Turner, et al left the game. The team ended with a +3 differential. I'll use that as a negative to adjust for the fact that we'll have backups in key positions.

Here's everything put together:

Opp Where Falc Diff Backup Diff Home or Away Diff Opp Diff Outcome
Eagles Home +3 -3 +9 6 3
Saints Home +3 -3 +9 17 -8
Jets Away +3 -3 -3 3 -6
Bills Home +3 -3 +9 -5 14
Bucs Away +3 -3 -3 -12 9

Yes, these are merely numbers and do not factor in any intangibles, but it still appears as if I was a bit hasty calling for a 7-9 season. With a 3-2 record in the remaining five games, we'll end the season out of the playoffs but grasping that ever important first-ever back-to-back winning seasons. And really, that's all I'm asking for at this point.

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