Ryan's Decline: Explained, Extinguished
by Jebidillah on Dec 23, 2009 6:20 PM EST
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I'm not going to bore you all with strenous explanations, but instead, with some delicious food for your hungry brains. In a non-disturbing, non-zombie related way, of course.
Basically, everyone that's been worrying about Ryan really needs to calm down, because he has NOT regressed nearly as much as people have been saying. I have no doubt that he will return next year with a far superior season to this sophomore slump he's been experiencing. But on the other hand, when you look at the games he's played...can you really be too upset? I'll lay it out simply.
The falcons schedule is, and admittedly has been, one of the most painstaking in the NFL this year. But a look at the statistics prove that it's a much harder schedule for Ryan himself than for the team as a whole, which points simply to his much lesser stats. Take a look at the top 10 pass defenses in the NFL.
| Rank | Team | 2009 | Last 3 | Last 1 | Home | Away | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NY Jets (7-7) | 159.6 | 101.3 | 152.0 | 148.9 | 170.3 | 234.5 |
| 2 | Denver (8-6) | 177.5 | 150.0 | 102.0 | 179.3 | 175.7 | 229.1 |
| 3 | Buffalo (5-9) | 185.7 | 133.0 | 115.0 | 168.3 | 198.8 | 204.4 |
| 4 | Carolina (6-8) | 192.6 | 234.3 | 196.0 | 175.3 | 210.0 | 212.7 |
| 5 | Washington (4-10) | 194.1 | 281.0 | 273.0 | 197.6 | 190.6 | 193.8 |
| 6 | Baltimore (8-6) | 200.3 | 160.0 | 98.0 | 167.1 | 244.5 | 191.1 |
| 7 | Chicago (5-9) | 203.2 | 163.0 | 222.0 | 189.7 | 216.7 | 241.2 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay (2-12) | 203.9 | 179.7 | 252.0 | 187.7 | 216.1 | 187.3 |
| 9 | New England (9-5) | 205.9 | 214.3 | 136.0 | 161.0 | 250.9 | 201.4 |
| 10 | NY Giants (8-6) | 206.4 | 296.3 | 213.0 | 228.1 | 184.6 | 197.2 |
So, do any of the teams look familiar? I hope so. As you can see, we have faced 8 of those top 10 pass defenses throughout our already ugly schedule. And on top of that, we faced Tampa Bay and Carolina TWICE. Basically, 10 of our 16 games are against top 10 pass defenses. Ugly, in a word.
But wait, there's more? Well, Ryan ALSO sat out two of our games against easier pass defenses, being New Orleans (No. 24) and Philadelphia (No. 14). Not only does this jab a stick at the eyes of the Redman lovers who want him in over Ryan, as he faced the "easy" teams, but it also highlights how difficult Ryan has had it. Assuming that he plays for the next two games, he will have had to face teams in the top 10 pass-defense rankings 10 times out of 14.
And on top of that, do injuries ring a bell? Injuries to the line have caused him to make hasty decisions, and drops by Michael Jenkins, as well as the loss of capable 3rd down reciever Harry Douglas, AND Jerious Norwood's long-term absence...should I even continue?
Redman also didn't have to compete with 4 - yes, FOUR - teams coming off of their byes. He didn't have to compete with four well-rested teams (Giants, Redskins, Bears, Cowboys), three of whom are in the top 10 pass defense already and DON'T need an excuse to make QBs perform poorly.
When it comes down to it, 1 INT per game doesn't look so bad at all. Thoughts?
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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Well, you've changed my opinion on Ryan's decline.
I never really considered it the “Sophomore Slump” like some did. Playing teams off of bye weeks had a lot to do with it. Playing a lot of good teams on the road had a lot to do with it too, but I had no idea we played 8 of the top 10 pass defenses. Good grief.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
by Zippo729 on Dec 23, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Pretty much.
I only noticed it when I checked out the statistics. It made me really sympathize with Ryan, especially seeings as he has managed to crank out more TDs than his rookie year and lead us to several comebacks, though they weren’t all successful. This guy has a bright future.
I knew his numbers were better, I just thought it was a product of relying on him more
I never EVER considered him a bust, and I agree 150% that he’s gonna be our Peyton Manning sooner rather than later. Not having our main RBs has killed him, though. He’s still too young to rely on completely, but he sure did a heckuva job against the Jets to lead the team to victory. A sign of things to come, I’m sure.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
Excellent work
Rec’d.
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Great Job!
When you express his seasons work in this light it really shines like a crystal ball! Ryan has made the best of a horrible schedule in the midst of his sophomore season. Doesn’t seem so bad in this respect…
by Gjmoody on Dec 23, 2009 9:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions
finally
some proof that all the people bitching about Matt being a bust can see he has had to play against some tough passing Ds and remember our running game didn’t get going until late in the year so Matt was having to pass against those Ds
i cast my vote for...
he’s not a phony, he is our future: AND
he’s had a shitty season. but it’s okay, he’s young.
^was that an option?
sorry to be this post’s devil’s advocate, but can we all agree with the obvious…
That often times a good part of the league’s
“Top Rated Pass Defenses” (Dun Dun Dun)
are simply crappy teams who fall behind quickly so that their opponents have no need to throw the ball after the second quarter…?
If you look up to your list of teams, a bunch of those suckers couldn’t stop the run if they were slicing achilles.
just keepin it real.
but i still love ryan. so kudos.
p.s. it's a false dichotomy
it’s not true that:
A) Ryan sucks and should be released
or
B) He hasn’t had a bad season
it is possible to believe in him and call his recent performances awful
While that's true, another common element of most of the top 10 is
they have a top-flight corner(s)/good pass rush.
Baltimore, Ed Reed, baltimore’s D, duh.
Denver, Champ Bailey, sick pass rush
New England……well, their whole D is good.
Carolina doesn’t really have a top-flight DB but they’re all pretty good. They have a good pass rush
Jets, Derrell Revis (sp?) Strong defense overall.
Giants have several pretty good corners. They also usually have a pretty good pass rush.
Washington, good corners, solid pass rush. Can’t stop the run.
Buffalo (until recently) Jairus Byrd
Tampa Bay, that crazy Cover 2 scheme they have, plus they have a decent pass rush.
What I’m getting at is it’s not necessarily all about the DBs. It’s a combination of pass rush and DBs. Most of the bad teams up there can’t stop the run, so the opposition usually looks to run the ball, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story. Most of those teams are up there for a reason, be it creating turnovers (Buffalo) or just an all out strong defense (Jets, Denver, etc.)
Most of those teams have no offense, else their records would be much, much better.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
hopefully
we will get a more “fair” schedule this upcoming season that can really showcase the improvements we have made. If we can pull out a winning record after this, this team should be pretty darn beastly next year, so says i. But im just a caveman, so what do i know?
next season
We’ll have the AFC North
Steelers Ravens Bengals, Browns
If I’m not mistaken, all four of those teams got a reputable defense, even the browns, and are all good against the run.
The NFC West will give the Falcons a chance facing Seattle and Saint Louis, as the Niners and Cardinals will be the most challenging.
The Falcons will also likely face the Packers, with another good defense, as well as the Cowboys Giants or Eagles.
Panthers, and Bucs, I think will have a solid defense next year too barring injuries.
by brotherbrown on Dec 24, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
also
great stats. Thats why i love this place so much
If peeing your pants is the coolest, consider me Miles Davis
truth is never one-sided
It’s a great post and while I agree with most of your arguments, there are some interesting things that dirthybird and Zippo have already highlighted.
Your data shows the challenge Ryan had to face this year.
there is also an argument about applicability of some passing defense data: some teams are great defensive teams overall, while some others simply can’t stop the run, so the opposing teams simply run it against them (Bills, TB, CAR, even Skins to some extent). So if a QB on team opposing, say, Bills, had low passing numbers it doesn’t necessarily mean that QB struggled. I would love to see a similar table showing not passing yardage allowed but points allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. It would also be of use to see Ryan’s performance against teams that are good against both pass and run, because that’s when he really had the challenge of driving this offense.
In any case, when you judge about a QB (especially a franchise QB) you have to look at him overall, as an offensive team leader, not just as a passer. And in this category I think there is no doubt that Ryan is a true leader, and we all (and the team including) feel more confident with him calling signals at the line of scrimmage.
While we say that Ryan is the man and we need him, it’s ok to also say that there were instances when he played like a rookie. I’d say it was 50-50 opposing defenses and his growing pains. And I am glad last year we didn’t have to play too many great defensive teams – and that helped him to build his confidence.
As for the sophomore slump, there is a reason why many rookies have it. First, and foremost, we use this term in referring only to QB who were successful in their rookie year. Promising QB are drafted by teams at the top of the draft, and those usually end up being inferior teams. If a QB has success helping that team go up in the ranks due to outstanding play and/or soft schedule, the next year schedule is usually much tougher (it’s unlikely you’d have soft schedule two years in a row, especially if you finish the first year high in your division), and the opposing teams have film to study. Add to this increased publicity for rookie wonders, and elevated expectations, and you get a recipe for that slump.
Ryan is the future of this franchise, but he needs a lot of help – from his offensive line that protects his butt, and from his receivers who quit dropping easy ball and force him to make risky ones, and from the OC who amplifies Ryan’s skills why avoiding things that Ryan had difficulty with.
You also raise the issue of Ryan vs Redman. I think it would be unfair to say Redman is bad – Redman is a good backup, that’s what he his. his record was 1-2 (you can safely say that he lead us to that W against TB), and he was close to getting a second W against NO. He struggled against Philly, which is also a good defensive team nonetheless (unless you watched NYG rip their secondary), and that game was plain bad for the whole team.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
by Gemini-RU on Dec 24, 2009 5:52 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Great Post, and Rec'd
Well, I had a lengthy response for you as well, but it got deleted when I accidentally clicked on one of my toolbars and went to a different site. Darn. >_<
Basically, I was going to say that we face the top 3 teams in the allowed passer rating column (NYJ, BUF, and NO), only one in the bottom 10 (TB, who ironically is 23rd, had it been 22nd, we would have none in the bottom 10), and overally, Ryan’s still had a very difficult time. It sucks to be brisk like this, but it’s all that I have the anti-lazy capability to do. Overall, though, I definitely agree with everything that you said. Excellent points.
it's interesting that
Tampa is in the top 10 passing defense category by yardage and the bottom 10 in allowed QB rating! maybe that’s the clear cut case of a team unable to stop the run to teams prefer to run on them (plus, their opposition rarely falls back and doesn’t have to play catch-up).
So, yes, I agree with you – Ryan looked lost sometimes, when facing those tough defenses that allow little to opposing QBs, especially when our running game stalled and he had to do it on his own. Maybe something went wrong with the O-line that bothered him, or maybe Mularkey didn’t adjust his schemes and defenses easily read them and adjusted…
Just can’t wait to see how we do next year with him at the center.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Yeah Tampa Bay
Really sticks out as the bogus one there – they’re obviously helped by teams running out the clock on them late in games. Football Outsiders has them as the #26 Pass Defense (their DVOA is a rate/efficiency stat, not a counting stat like total yards). But the thing is, if you look at the DVOA rankings for pass defenses (through Week 15), it’s just as bad – just with a few teams shuffled around:
1. NY Jets
2. Denver
3. Buffalo
4. Philadelphia
5. Carolina
6. Baltimore
7. New Orleans
8. San Fransisco
9. Green Bay
10. Indianapolis
11. NY Giants
13. Miami
16. Dallas
18. Chicago
19. New England
22. Washington
26. Tampa Bay
Also, by looking at FO’s individual QB numbers for Ryan, he has an 8.4% VOA (Value Over Average), but when it is adjusted for the quality of pass defenses he’s faced, he gets bumped all the way up to a 15.7% DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). They have him slightly ahead of guys like Joe Flacco (15.6% DVOA / 18.1% VOA) and Kyle Orton (15.5% DVOA / 17.4% VOA), who both have better standard stats, but have each faced much easier schedules.
Anyway, great work Jebdillah. I Rec’d it. Your main point is absolutely true – that Ryan’s numbers look bad because of the insane schedule he has faced. I just feel the the DVOA number gives a better idea of the true quality of these defenses than the official NFL yardage ranks.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Good stats
“Also, by looking at FO’s individual QB numbers for Ryan, he has an 8.4% VOA (Value Over Average), but when it is adjusted for the quality of pass defenses he’s faced, he gets bumped all the way up to a 15.7% DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). They have him slightly ahead of guys like Joe Flacco (15.6% DVOA / 18.1% VOA) and Kyle Orton (15.5% DVOA / 17.4% VOA)”
Did you mean to say “slightly behind” Flacco and Orton? Or is lower DVOA better?
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Higher is better for Offense
(Lower better for Defense)
Ryan 15.7
Flacco 15.6
Orton 15.5
only after the defensive adjustments…
He’s behind on the VOA #‘s, but that’s without the adjustments.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
yeah
Redman didn’t do too bad, and he hasn’t had a lot of live practice or weapons lately.
by brotherbrown on Dec 24, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
that's the problem with any backup QB
the position is vital to the team, but backups get few snaps during the week. we normally don’t want to see them playing (because usually they suck, and if they’re good then you have QB controversy), but when they do play you want them to be reliable. The irony is, once the backup becomes a star himself, the team ends up losing this backup or the injured starter in the offseason because they become expensive. So obviously Redman was no Cassel, but he played relatively well – and even in that Eagles game he had enough strength for that final drive.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
Redman will be trade bait this offseason
Just like Matt Schaub, there is a team or two who will be interested in Redman this off-season…..hopefully we can pick up another veteran quarterback who will be happy carrying around Ryan’s clipboard most of the year so that when(not if) he re-injures his toe/foot next year, we can at least win 50% of the games he starts…..
I often wonder how well Matt Schaub would have done as a starter for the Falcons.
This is probably a subject for a Fanpost in itself. Who/what position player should we trade Redman for?
Redman is not trade bait
Because he’s going to be a Free Agent. His contract expires after the season’s over.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
then it would be interestng to see how team management reacts
will they keep him with some “veteran” contract or let him go free? I am sure some QB-hungry teams would go after a good backup or even a starter. And it’s still unclear whether we could get someone to replace him if he leaves.
Atlanta Falcons fan in Moscow, Russia
I never
saw a decline in the first place. they expanded the offense this year for one thing. also the line play hasnt been as good protection wise. he has taken a lot more sacks, and blitzed more often than last year. also the expectations were higher. the guy had a lot of weight on his shoulders for a second year QB. I think this Buffalo game proved that he is legit as ever. I am looking forward to next season already.
Life is a garden. Dig it!
by Hardcore Falcon on Dec 28, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions
I think a handful of folks lost sight of the fact
That Ryan is a young quarterback on a team crippled by injuries and the kind of mistakes a team makes when it’s just finding its way out of the quagmire that is mediocrity. I firmly believe that if the Falcons get him perhaps one more weapon and ensure the line can protect him, Matty Snowballs will have a monstrous season in 2010, and the Falcons with him.
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And let's not forget
Next year is uncapped.
I started drooling over the free agent pool and looked at potential weapons.
I noticed one particular name that really caught my eye.
Benjamin Watson will be a free agent at the end of this year. He’ll be 29 years old, the Patriots don’t really use him like they should, what if we stole him from the Patriots? Could you imagine a 22 set with Turner/Mughelli and Gonzo/Watson with White as the single receiver? Oh man! Watson is so blazing fast, the highlight of Champ Bailey (look at me, being a homer and spouting UGA names everywhere) and his INT of 80-90+ (upon further review, it was 101) yards had BEN WATSON chase him down from the other side of the field as Champ ran outta gas. Watson’s a TE, folks. Champ’s been one of the best DBs around for years and Watson ran him down from across the field.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VKUSgHPm4E
Watch from 1:56 onward. That’s a Tight End doing that. He’s as good (in my opinion, almost as good) a pass catcher as Gonzo is, he just didn’t single handedly carry a team (and accrue stats) for years like Gonzo did. If the Patriots don’t sign him, I almost feel like we have to. Not because he’s a UGA alum, but because he’s a talent going to waste over there in NE.
Also, another person worth considering is Davone Bess. He’s easily one of the most underrated players in the NFL (even some announcers have suggested that) and he’s a Exclusive Rights Free Agent after this year, whatever that means. It has free agent in it, so I reckon he’s at least partially available, somehow. He was one of Colt Brennan’s super receivers down in Hawaii, and he’s transferred to the pros pretty well.
Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson are going to be FAs, I expect both of them to be signed quickly this offseason by their respective teams. I wouldn’t mind Vincent Jackson, but Marshall’s character scares me a bit. I’ll shoot myself if we sign TO but man it would be funny.
Steve Breaston will be a RFA this year. I don’t know the ins and outs of how Restricted changes the rules, but he’d be a treat to land, too. He’s a hard worker and never complains despite being behind the best #1/#2 WR combo in the NFL. In a pass happy offense such as Breaston is, you know he’s reliable for catching the ball else he wouldn’t be there.
Miles Austin will be a FA. I’m not completely sold on him, still. He had two or three freak games and then died off. I wouldn’t take a chance on him. We already have our shifty WR.
On Defense, we better keep our DL. All the FAs this year are old or are no names, in my opinion, sans Elvis Dumervil or whatever his name is.
I wish I was joking here, but Thomas Davis (another UGA alum, I swear I’m not being a homer) will be a FA this year. He tore his ACL but was having a Pro Bowl season before he got hurt. He’s been playing weak side, where our own Mike Peterson will need to be replaced sooner or later. Ol’ Mike’s probably only got a year or two left in him, and Davis is a fast/hard-nosed LB that can cover a TE, provided he rehabs from his ACL tear well.
Shawne Merriman will be an FA. I don’t like his attitude, though. He’d be a beast to have, if he could fully heal himself.
For DBs, we’re going to have to either use what we have or draft one #1. The FA pool doesn’t have anyone I’d take that would fill our #1 needs. Chris Owens has played well, Air Grimes continues to impress (the site I’m looking at said he’s 27 years old already!! D:) The knock on Chris Owens coming out of college was that his numbers were poor. However, the story goes that the guy who played opposite of him (Coye Francies, I think his name was) was so good, nobody ever threw his way! So Owens was unfairly targeted for some criticism, and I think we can all say he’s shown up to play the last two weeks.
But alas, it’s 5 AM and my body doesn’t handle this hour too well. I’m gonna wait to dissect our season until after we beat the Bucs on Sunday. I think it’s only fair to analyze every game and see what’s gone right/wrong.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!" -Wes Durham
by Zippo729 on Dec 29, 2009 5:08 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I guarantee
(or your money back) that Miles Austin will be a Cowboy next year. He is their best WR, and if an uncapped year helps anybody, it’s Jerrah… And I don’t know why you think he “died off” – he’s been awesome at least the last 5 weeks in a row, and will probably be in the Pro Bowl.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Great post
Puts Matty’s mediocre year into perspective, thanks for enlightening my feeble, withered brain. Nice job!
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