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Ahhh.  Nothing brightens Christmas week like genuine hope for that elusive successive winning season!  Here are some calorie-free holiday numbers to munch on.  Enjoy, friends.

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for new readers):

          At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats.  The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked.  The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

          Here's how the ratings are calculated.  The first step is to calculate two simple stats:  Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team.  These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed.  Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1.  (This isn't something pulled from thin air.  It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique.  The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.)  You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense.  Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team.  Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive.  There you go.  Simple, right?

The Ravens sure illustrate how 4 lopsided victories (by 31, 23, 45, 24 points) can inflate a team's ratings, egad!  Taking them and the Pats a little less seriously would seem to be in order.  Our victorious Falcons rose to #18 this week.  The Panthers moved up 6 slots with their surprising win over the Vikings; the Eagles & Texans rose by 3.  Falling furthest were the Redskins, by 5 spots; five teams fell by 2.

There you have it, spreadsheet download is here.  I hope everyone has a happy, relaxing and safe Christmas.  Cheers, and best wishes to you all!