via i37.tinypic.com
Ahhh. Nothing brightens Christmas week like genuine hope for that elusive successive winning season! Here are some calorie-free holiday numbers to munch on. Enjoy, friends.
RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for new readers):
At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.
Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?
Rank |
Power Rating |
W-L-T |
PF/G |
PA/G |
|
Offense Rating |
Defense Rating |
Total |
||
1 |
88.0 |
14-0-0 |
28.1 |
17.7 |
0.898 |
0.862 |
1.760 |
|||
2 |
84.4 |
8-6-0 |
25.0 |
16.1 |
0.748 |
0.941 |
1.689 |
|||
3 |
84.4 |
9-5-0 |
26.1 |
17.4 |
0.808 |
0.880 |
1.688 |
|||
4 |
82.4 |
11-3-0 |
28.3 |
19.2 |
0.902 |
0.745 |
1.647 |
|||
5 |
76.5 |
10-4-0 |
28.5 |
20.4 |
0.909 |
0.622 |
1.531 |
|||
6 |
76.5 |
11-3-0 |
27.8 |
20.2 |
0.885 |
0.645 |
1.530 |
|||
7 |
76.3 |
9-5-0 |
27.1 |
20.0 |
0.859 |
0.668 |
1.527 |
|||
8 |
75.9 |
13-1-0 |
34.5 |
21.3 |
0.993 |
0.525 |
1.519 |
|||
9 |
72.7 |
9-5-0 |
22.9 |
17.9 |
0.602 |
0.853 |
1.455 |
|||
10 |
67.4 |
7-7-0 |
20.1 |
15.8 |
0.397 |
0.950 |
1.347 |
|||
11 |
67.0 |
9-5-0 |
24.1 |
20.1 |
0.688 |
0.653 |
1.340 |
|||
12 |
65.4 |
9-5-0 |
20.6 |
17.4 |
0.429 |
0.880 |
1.309 |
|||
13 |
63.0 |
7-7-0 |
23.4 |
20.4 |
0.638 |
0.622 |
1.260 |
|||
14 |
62.1 |
7-7-0 |
22.5 |
20.0 |
0.575 |
0.668 |
1.243 |
|||
15 |
60.7 |
8-6-0 |
19.6 |
17.9 |
0.361 |
0.853 |
1.214 |
|||
16 |
57.1 |
6-8-0 |
20.1 |
19.2 |
0.397 |
0.745 |
1.142 |
|||
17 |
53.8 |
8-6-0 |
27.6 |
24.4 |
0.877 |
0.200 |
1.077 |
|||
18 |
48.5 |
7-7-0 |
22.3 |
22.3 |
0.559 |
0.411 |
0.970 |
|||
19 |
42.3 |
6-8-0 |
17.9 |
20.6 |
0.247 |
0.598 |
0.845 |
|||
20 |
41.8 |
7-7-0 |
22.6 |
23.8 |
0.581 |
0.256 |
0.837 |
|||
21 |
38.7 |
7-7-0 |
22.9 |
24.8 |
0.602 |
0.173 |
0.775 |
|||
22 |
38.4 |
4-10-0 |
17.6 |
21.1 |
0.226 |
0.542 |
0.768 |
|||
23 |
37.8 |
5-9-0 |
16.1 |
20.6 |
0.150 |
0.606 |
0.756 |
|||
24 |
32.5 |
7-7-0 |
19.0 |
23.0 |
0.316 |
0.334 |
0.650 |
|||
25 |
29.7 |
5-9-0 |
18.1 |
23.0 |
0.260 |
0.334 |
0.594 |
|||
26 |
29.3 |
5-9-0 |
18.4 |
23.2 |
0.274 |
0.312 |
0.585 |
|||
27 |
14.3 |
5-9-0 |
12.5 |
23.9 |
0.043 |
0.243 |
0.286 |
|||
28 |
12.4 |
3-11-0 |
17.1 |
27.4 |
0.202 |
0.046 |
0.248 |
|||
29 |
12.2 |
3-11-0 |
14.2 |
24.9 |
0.082 |
0.162 |
0.244 |
|||
30 |
11.0 |
2-12-0 |
15.3 |
25.9 |
0.117 |
0.102 |
0.219 |
|||
31 |
9.0 |
2-12-0 |
16.6 |
31.2 |
0.176 |
0.003 |
0.179 |
|||
32 |
4.3 |
1-13-0 |
11.4 |
26.9 |
0.026 |
0.059 |
0.086 |
|||
|
means: |
21.5 |
21.5 |
|
The Ravens sure illustrate how 4 lopsided victories (by 31, 23, 45, 24 points) can inflate a team's ratings, egad! Taking them and the Pats a little less seriously would seem to be in order. Our victorious Falcons rose to #18 this week. The Panthers moved up 6 slots with their surprising win over the Vikings; the Eagles & Texans rose by 3. Falling furthest were the Redskins, by 5 spots; five teams fell by 2.
There you have it, spreadsheet download is here. I hope everyone has a happy, relaxing and safe Christmas. Cheers, and best wishes to you all!