FanPost

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 15

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via i37.tinypic.com

Ahhh.  Nothing brightens Christmas week like genuine hope for that elusive successive winning season!  Here are some calorie-free holiday numbers to munch on.  Enjoy, friends.

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for new readers):

          At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats.  The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked.  The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

          Here's how the ratings are calculated.  The first step is to calculate two simple stats:  Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team.  These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed.  Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1.  (This isn't something pulled from thin air.  It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique.  The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.)  You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense.  Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team.  Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive.  There you go.  Simple, right?

Rank

Power Rating

Team

W-L-T

PF/G

PA/G

 

Offense Rating

Defense Rating

Total

1

88.0

Colts

14-0-0

28.1

17.7

0.898

0.862

1.760

2

84.4

Ravens

8-6-0

25.0

16.1

0.748

0.941

1.689

3

84.4

Patriots

9-5-0

26.1

17.4

0.808

0.880

1.688

4

82.4

Vikings

11-3-0

28.3

19.2

0.902

0.745

1.647

5

76.5

Eagles

10-4-0

28.5

20.4

0.909

0.622

1.531

6

76.5

Chargers

11-3-0

27.8

20.2

0.885

0.645

1.530

7

76.3

Packers

9-5-0

27.1

20.0

0.859

0.668

1.527

8

75.9

Saints

13-1-0

34.5

21.3

0.993

0.525

1.519

9

72.7

Cowboys

9-5-0

22.9

17.9

0.602

0.853

1.455

10

67.4

Jets

7-7-0

20.1

15.8

0.397

0.950

1.347

11

67.0

Cardinals

9-5-0

24.1

20.1

0.688

0.653

1.340

12

65.4

Bengals

9-5-0

20.6

17.4

0.429

0.880

1.309

13

63.0

Texans

7-7-0

23.4

20.4

0.638

0.622

1.260

14

62.1

Steelers

7-7-0

22.5

20.0

0.575

0.668

1.243

15

60.7

Broncos

8-6-0

19.6

17.9

0.361

0.853

1.214

16

57.1

49ers

6-8-0

20.1

19.2

0.397

0.745

1.142

17

53.8

Giants

8-6-0

27.6

24.4

0.877

0.200

1.077

18

48.5

Falcons

7-7-0

22.3

22.3

0.559

0.411

0.970

19

42.3

Panthers

6-8-0

17.9

20.6

0.247

0.598

0.845

20

41.8

Dolphins

7-7-0

22.6

23.8

0.581

0.256

0.837

21

38.7

Titans

7-7-0

22.9

24.8

0.602

0.173

0.775

22

38.4

Redskins

4-10-0

17.6

21.1

0.226

0.542

0.768

23

37.8

Bills

5-9-0

16.1

20.6

0.150

0.606

0.756

24

32.5

Jaguars

7-7-0

19.0

23.0

0.316

0.334

0.650

25

29.7

Bears

5-9-0

18.1

23.0

0.260

0.334

0.594

26

29.3

Seahawks

5-9-0

18.4

23.2

0.274

0.312

0.585

27

14.3

Raiders

5-9-0

12.5

23.9

0.043

0.243

0.286

28

12.4

Chiefs

3-11-0

17.1

27.4

0.202

0.046

0.248

29

12.2

Browns

3-11-0

14.2

24.9

0.082

0.162

0.244

30

11.0

Buccaneers

2-12-0

15.3

25.9

0.117

0.102

0.219

31

9.0

Lions

2-12-0

16.6

31.2

0.176

0.003

0.179

32

4.3

Rams

1-13-0

11.4

26.9

0.026

0.059

0.086

 

means:

21.5

21.5

 

The Ravens sure illustrate how 4 lopsided victories (by 31, 23, 45, 24 points) can inflate a team's ratings, egad!  Taking them and the Pats a little less seriously would seem to be in order.  Our victorious Falcons rose to #18 this week.  The Panthers moved up 6 slots with their surprising win over the Vikings; the Eagles & Texans rose by 3.  Falling furthest were the Redskins, by 5 spots; five teams fell by 2.

There you have it, spreadsheet download is here.  I hope everyone has a happy, relaxing and safe Christmas.  Cheers, and best wishes to you all!

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

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