FanPost

DVOA Matchup - NY Jets


Overall:

TEAM TOTAL   OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.
DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK
ATL -3.50% 22 8.30% 16 12.00% 26 0.20% 18
NYJ 8.70% 15 -11.00% 23 -17.30% 1 2.30% 9



This looks to be a fairly even matchup before you factor in the Home Field Advantage.  The Jets are slightly above average, and the Falcons are slightly below average.  The good thing is that the Jets may not be able to take advantage of our biggest weakness.

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM       PASS   RUSH VAR. RANK
DVOA RANK PASSING RANK RUSHING RANK
ATL-Offense 8.30% 16 19.30% 15 2.50% 13 4.50% 2
NYJ-Defense -17.30% 1 -27.60% 1 -6.60% 15 11.50% 31

DVOA says that the Jets have the #1 Overall Defense, and the #1 Pass Defense.  In the "Watch Out for Darrelle Revis" Post, I said Redman (or Ryan) should throw to whichever WR is on the opposite side of the field as their shutdown CB.  The problem?  They are great against every single type of receiver: 4th against #1's, 4th against #2's, 3rd against "Other WR's", 8th against TE's and 2nd against RB's in the passing game.  For all the talk about Rex Ryan being blitz happy, they don't really have that many Sacks (tied for 18th in the league).  Our O-Line against their defensive front 7 should be a wash, at the worst.  Once again, we are facing a team with a high Variance number.  Our best bet looks like pounding them in the running game, and hope their defense has a "bad game" overall.

When the Jets have the ball:

TEAM       PASS   RUSH VAR. RANK
DVOA RANK PASSING RANK RUSHING RANK
ATL-Defense 12.00% 26 30.30% 29 -9.50% 10 5.30% 15
NYJ-Offense -11.00% 23 -19.60% 26 3.90% 12 6.50% 17

Those numbers look pretty close across the board, huh?  Obvously, Thomas Jones is our biggest concern when the Falcons are on Defense.  Football Outsiders says their success in the running game should be credited more credited to the O-Line (ranked #11 in Adjusted Line Yards) that Jones (only a 0.2% individual DVOA), but either way, they are usually able to get the job done.  We have been pretty good against the run this season, and our defensive gameplan should be to make Sanchez beat us in the air.  Even though Delhomme and Josh Freeman had good games against our terrible pass defense, Sanchez (-22.7% DVOA) is in the same ballpark as those guys, and is coming off an injury.  If he is unable to play (he's listed as Probable), Clemens (-40.8% DVOA) has been even worse.  Also of note, their O-Line is pretty poor in Pass Protection (#25 in Adjusted Sack Rate), so hopefully we can get some pressure on the QB (of course, our D-Line is 25th in ASR on defense, so that may be a wash, as well).

Special Teams:

The Jets have the #9 overall Special Teams according to DVOA, and are solid in every aspect of the kicking games besides Kick Returns, where they are only slightly below average.  We are still #1 in Kickoffs/Kick Coverage, and have just this week moved out of last place in FG/XP kicks.

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Falcoholic

You must be a member of The Falcoholic to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Falcoholic. You should read them.

Join The Falcoholic

You must be a member of The Falcoholic to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Falcoholic. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker