Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 14

by tom slick on Dec 15, 2009 12:55 AM EST Comment 15 comments

Even more fun than a Billy Mays TV commercial, here are this week's numbers for your info-tainment. Enjoy!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	88.6	Colts	13-0-0	27.6	16.7	0.868	0.903	1.771
2	85.6	Vikings	11-2-0	29.9	18.7	0.938	0.774	1.711
3	83.0	Patriots	8-5-0	26.8	18.0	0.833	0.827	1.659
4	80.6	Ravens	7-6-0	24.5	16.8	0.713	0.900	1.613
5	79.6	Packers	9-4-0	26.5	18.7	0.818	0.774	1.592
6	76.8	Chargers	10-3-0	27.8	19.9	0.877	0.660	1.537
7	76.7	Saints	13-0-0	35.8	21.1	0.995	0.538	1.533
8	72.5	Eagles	9-4-0	28.6	21.0	0.903	0.546	1.449
9	71.4	Cowboys	8-5-0	22.8	17.9	0.596	0.832	1.428
10	70.2	Jets	7-6-0	21.2	16.2	0.481	0.923	1.404
11	66.2	Bengals	9-4-0	20.3	16.7	0.420	0.903	1.323
12	65.8	Cardinals	8-5-0	23.5	19.8	0.649	0.668	1.316
13	63.2	Steelers	6-7-0	21.4	18.8	0.497	0.767	1.264
14	61.4	49ers	6-7-0	20.7	18.6	0.448	0.780	1.227
15	61.2	Broncos	8-5-0	19.7	17.7	0.377	0.847	1.225
16	61.0	Texans	6-7-0	23.9	21.0	0.674	0.546	1.220
17	49.4	Redskins	4-9-0	18.0	19.3	0.268	0.720	0.988
18	47.3	Giants	7-6-0	26.2	25.4	0.807	0.138	0.945
19	45.8	Falcons	6-7-0	23.2	23.5	0.628	0.288	0.916
20	42.7	Dolphins	7-6-0	22.5	23.5	0.574	0.280	0.855
21	37.7	Titans	6-7-0	22.5	24.8	0.580	0.173	0.753
22	37.6	Bills	5-8-0	16.5	20.8	0.189	0.563	0.752
23	36.3	Bears	5-8-0	19.0	22.4	0.331	0.396	0.727
24	35.1	Jaguars	7-6-0	18.1	22.1	0.273	0.429	0.702
25	35.0	Panthers	5-8-0	17.3	21.7	0.229	0.471	0.699
26	33.2	Seahawks	5-8-0	19.2	23.2	0.346	0.317	0.663
27	13.4	Browns	2-11-0	12.2	24.2	0.047	0.220	0.267
28	12.9	Raiders	4-9-0	11.9	24.3	0.043	0.214	0.257
29	12.3	Chiefs	3-10-0	15.8	26.3	0.157	0.090	0.247
30	8.5	Lions	2-11-0	16.1	31.2	0.167	0.004	0.171
31	8.0	Buccaneers	1-12-0	14.6	27.4	0.110	0.051	0.160
32	3.7	Rams	1-12-0	11.2	27.8	0.033	0.041	0.073
			means:	21.4	21.4

The Falcons fell one spot to 19th, but New Orleans fell 2 spots in victory! Go figure. Someone must have put a "Voodoo Curse" on the Saints' ratings this week! The Ravens' lopsided win over mighty Detroit did wonders for their ranking, leapfrogging them over a crowded field by 7 spots. Not much noteworthy upward movement, otherwise; Titans up by 5, Browns 4. Falling in the rankings were Seattle, down 6 slots, and Arizona, down 3.

That's it for week 14, gents. Spreadsheet download here. Na zdraví!

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

Keep it up, Tom

I guess the long ago 59-0 spanking of the Titans will keep the Patriots close to the very top despite their recent struggles.

by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 15, 2009 5:20 PM EST reply actions

And the Saints

Keep getting dragged down by not putting away inferior opponents:

STL 28-23
WAS 33-30
ATL (1) 35-27
ATL (2) 26-23

It’s still amazing to me that the 17 they gave up to the Patriots is their 4th fewest points allowed this season.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 16, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

What-if scenarios

If you throw away Pats-Titans, the Pats’ offense falls by 2.7 PPG, the defense by 1.5 PPG. That’s enough to drop them down to 10th place here!

If the Saints’ D allowed 2.5 PPG less, they’d have first place. The performance against mediocre foes begs the question of how they’re going to do in the playoffs, especially on defense. Their postseason games should be a lot of fun to watch, never a dull moment with those guys!

by tom slick on Dec 17, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

I like the rankings of the next three Saints opponents...

#9, #31, and #25 respectively…just hope we’re not playing for second round home field advantage against Carolina in the last game.

Good news for Falcons fans. There’s definitely still a small chance you guys can make the playoffs. A 2.5% chance in fact. Believe Dallas needs to lose all of its remaining games for it to happen.

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?i=1

by TigerPaw on Dec 16, 2009 1:16 AM EST reply actions

Football Outsiders

Only gives us 0.5% on their current Playoff Odds.

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance… YEAH!”

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Dec 16, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Great links

I read about the 0.5% chance first and got all depressed. Then I read about the 2.5%, and I’m dancing around the room, it’s like five times better! Mighty charitable of TigerPaw to share such good news! :)

by tom slick on Dec 17, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

All i can do is

Shake my head back and forth in dis-belief
You gotta be used to me by now

So how do you do the rankings in the playoffs everyone starts at zero and only count playoff games or is it just a countinuos of this ranking

by simone219 on Dec 16, 2009 7:18 PM EST reply actions

All I can say is

You seem to take the numbers sort of personally. It’s all in the simple way they’re calculated. I don’t like the Falcons’ defensive, or overall, numbers either!

I’ve always ended the ratings with the regular season, but perhaps I can extend them into the playoffs for your personal entertainment pleasure! :)

by tom slick on Dec 17, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

I dont take too much personally

And i was just wondering if you do the playoffs
I have all the confidence in the world we will do much better thesenext 2 weeks in our dome on defense were getting some “d” players back and we always step up against big opponents (dallas) and then we play the bucs

by simone219 on Dec 17, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions