DVOA Matchup - New Orleans Saints

by orang3b on Dec 11, 2009 5:36 PM EST

This is probably going to get ugly.

Overall:

TEAM	TOTAL		WEIGHTED	OFFENSE	OFF.	DEFENSE	DEF.	S.T.	S.T.
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK
ATL	-6.50%	21	-11.40%	6.30%	18	12.70%	27	-0.10%	19
NO	34.00%	1	30.90%	31.80%	1	-4.00%	7	-1.80%	27

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK
ATL Offense	6.30%	18	16.20%	16	2.50%	14
NO Defense	-4.00%	7	-12.50%	6	7.00%	26

The only area the Saints pass defense is below average is to "other WR's" (and they're #17 there). They are #2 against #1 WR's and #2 against TE's. Don't expect a huge game from Tony G. We can at least hope that with all the Cornerback injuries for them, maybe Roddy can have a good game. Really, we should be attacking them with the run game, though. It is their weakest area on defense, and it gives Brees less time with the ball.

When the Saints have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK
ATL	12.70%	27	30.40%	29	-7.40%	15
NO	31.80%	1	52.20%	3	19.20%	2

The Saints Offense has no statistical weakness. Brees will have his choice which weapon to use in the passing game - we are near the bottom of the league in every singly area of coverage. Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, Thomas (did I miss anybody?) could all have decent games catching the ball. Whichever RB they plug in should be able to pick up decent yardage on the ground. Their Offensive Line is one of the best in the NFL: they are #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate (pass protection), and all the way up to #2 in Adjusted Line Yards (run blocking). The Falcons have not shown any recent evidence that they will be able to slow this juggernaut.

Special Teams:

What looks to be our one advantage isn't really that much of an advantage, the way things match up. They are above average in Kickoff Returns, but we are still #1 in Kickoffs/KO Coverage. We are below average in Punts/Punt Coverage, but they are slightly worse at Punt Returns. The only place where there is a sliver of hope is when (if) the Saints punt - they're slightly below average in Punts/Punt Coverage, and we are slightly above average in Punt Returns.

Summary:

Like I said, this could get ugly. Go back up to the top to compare the "Weighted" DVOA numbers. They slightly discount the games earlier in the year. Yes, the Saints have had some struggles recently (besides MNF vs. the Pats), but the Falcons are even further away (-3.1% for NO; -4.9% for ATL) from their early performance, as if we didn't already know that without looking at the numbers.

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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Comments

Always enjoy these O/D matchups

Now, if we could only do something about the numbers contained within, they surely paint a foreboding picture; almost nothing good there Prognosis negative.

Thankfully, one reason we love football is that you never know… A Falcons win would leave this angry old goat feeling luckier than if I found $100 laying on the sidewalk! Shock the world, Falcons!

by tom slick on Dec 11, 2009 6:29 PM EST reply actions

you are right

anything can happen. i cheered the browns on their way to an upset. i have hope but it is hard to be optimistic when the numbers paint such a sordid picture coupled with the recent level of play.

Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don't like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that. - Bill Shankly

by armchair quarterback on Dec 11, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Great analysis

I have to agree with your conclusion. You will loose and probably loose badly…….. I was crusing around this site because we play you guys on Sunday and I have been reading the Q&A with Dave the Falconer on our own site… “Falcoholic” is a great name for your site.. As a life long Saints fan, and I believe that I speak for many of us, our site could easily be called “the Alcoholic” as that is what the team has driven us to most years. Well, at least on Sundays. The data in your analysis is solid. We will win Sunday not because you are division rivals but rather because with the Viking’s on our heels we cannot let up until we secure homefield advantage. We bear you no ill will. In fact, being Southern born and bred, let’s just say that I’m a little territorial… Keep it in the NFC South…If we were having our usual dismal season any you guys were doing what we’re doing this year, a lot of us would be pulling for you… Anybody but Dallas!!! Who Dat !!!

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading". Henny Youngman

by CaddoCoonass on Dec 11, 2009 9:02 PM EST reply actions

I LOVED seeing the Browns whip the Steelers. But,

I fear maybe a Falcons player or two saw the game and thought, “Heeeey! We could do that too!”

Crap!

The Colts/Patriots rivalry is like the “officer corps” of the NFL.

The Saints/Falcons rivalry? Well, we’re the grunts! And I don’t think we would have it any other way. We’ll both go out there and give it our best shot.

~~Good~~

Fair luck, boys.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers

If we're not suppose to eat animals, why are they made of meat?

by Just 'Nother Day on Dec 12, 2009 2:51 AM EST reply actions

Weel

tanks for nuttin. We got no shot at anything now. I do think that any reasonable person should recognize that the Aints should feel very lucky to have left the Dome with the win. The Falcons should have won it, but crappy play calling at the end of the game and the poor officiating killed us.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Dec 14, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions