Remaining Opponent Records Week 9

by tlozwarlock on Nov 6, 2009 12:02 PM EST in Editorial Comment 23 comments

Since Sunday marks the halfway point for our season, I decided to take a gander at the current records of our remaining opponents. What did I gleam? We're (currently) facing only three opponents with winning records: NYG, PHI, and NO. The Jets are on the bubble at 4 and 4. Since they're on their BYE this weekend, don't expect any movement from them. Here's how the schedule trends:

Scheduleweek9_medium

As it stands, our next marquee game (if current trends continue) will be the game against the Giants. I'm not discounting our soon-to-come NFC bout with the Panthers on their own turf, but the Giants are likely the next team we face with a winning record.

Take note of the stretch of games after the first Bucs game. We face the Eagles, the Saints, and the Jets, all who (if they continue to win) will have winning records when we face them. That's a pretty brutal stretch, but keep in mind that two of those three games are in Atlanta.

Here's a breakdown of it all, for those of you that like numbers.

TEAM	W	L	%	NEXT OPP
Redskins	2	5	0.286	Falcons
Panthers	3	4	0.429	Saints
Giants	5	3	0.625	Chargers
Bucs	0	7	0.000	Packers
Eagles	5	2	0.714	Cowboys
Saints	7	0	1.000	Panthers
Jets	4	4	0.500	BYE
Bills	3	5	0.375	BYE
Bucs	0	7	0.000	Packers

Combined Remaining Opponent Record: 29-37 (0.439)

Games against winning teams: 3

Games against losing teams: 6

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Comments

Holy awesome!

by Dave the Falconer on Nov 6, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eagles, Saints and @Jets does sound tough...

But our last five weeks have been @NE, @SF, Chicago, @Dallas and @NO! Surely nothing in the rest of the schedule is going to be as tough as that?

The only teams I really fear in the rest of the schedule are the Jets and Giants – and then only because we’re on the road. I think unless we majorly stuff something up, the worst we should do is 9-7; and 12-5 is not unrealistic. (This might just be dumb newbie over-optimism, of course…)

Cool analysis though. Graphtastic.

by Ignoramus on Nov 6, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually 12-5 is completely unrealistic

seeing as they only play 16 games…if you mean 12-4, though, I agree wholeheartedly. I think we’ll hit the Giants pretty hard, and I’m honestly expecting to get our revenge when the Saints come to town. Philly is good but we should get a big advantage from a wild home crowd. The Jets could be tough coming off of two of our hardest games, but when they aren’t playing their very best they look markedly inferior to the Falcons. I don’t expect to win them all but I don’t think there’s any game in the remaining schedule that should be out of our reach.

by Mountvillainy on Nov 6, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We can use that though

Next time an arrogant jerk from from another team crashes the site – bet ‘em a thousand bucks they can’t go 12-5 in the regular season.

by NeedATicketToTheGame on Nov 6, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duh!

I was counting the moral victory we scored over the Bye Week, of course…

Um… yeah… I can’t either can’t count or can’t type, not sure which… my apologies…

by Ignoramus on Nov 6, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too many "can'ts"...

It’s been a looooong day…

by Ignoramus on Nov 6, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well....if we went 11-5 and won a playoff game...

by Zippo729 on Nov 6, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then we would have another game after that : )

by Mountvillainy on Nov 6, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Interesting and revealing numbers, thanks!

Does anyone know of a resource that shows each team’s remaining Strength Of Schedule (the same way it’s calculated here)? I don’t see one readily apparent on The Google, you’d think someone would publish it somewhere. (SOS is a pretty relevant stat to use in an algorithm too, except it’s a total pain in the butt to calculate each week for each team.)

by tom slick on Nov 6, 2009 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i DONT KNOW WHERE TO FIND IT...

But what I heard was that we had the 4th HARDEST 1st half schedule, and the 2nd EASIEST schedule the second half of the season- mainly i think cuz of 2 games against Tampa. The second half schedule strength of course will change from week to week as teams win or lose, but I like our chances of winning this week and being 5-3 the first half and possibly a 6-2 second half for an overall record of 11-5.

by ATLsince1972 on Nov 6, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well,

Football Outsiders says they had the #3 (hardest) schedule so far, and the #23 schedule remaining – but that’s based on their DVOA, not strictly the Win %. Some of the ESPN bloggers rated the remaining SOS based on records this year, but I’ve only seen in using AFC teams.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 6, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

Sando did it for the NFC West, and shows all of the NFC. His list has it #1 toughest so far, and #5 easiest the rest of the way (NFC teams only).

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 6, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good find

Great! Just when the Falcons’ schedule gets easier, the Saints’ schedule becomes a freakin’ cream puff the rest of the way. We’re not winning this division without a plane crash, I fear.

by tom slick on Nov 6, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

There’s very little chance at winning the division, but remember – part of the difference in our remaining schedules is that we’ve gotta play the 7-0 Saints, and they’ve only gotta face the 4-3 Falcons… Of course, they do have an upcoming “battle” against the Rams.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 6, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got to tweak those numbers

and subtract those Falcons & Saints records out of there, indeed.
LOL at the Saints’ epic clash with St. Louis’ “football” team!

by tom slick on Nov 6, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's just say by some miracle we sweep the games until Saints come "marching in"

Then it’ll be 12-0 Saints versus 9-3 Falcons. In Falcons’ house. That might end up being “flexed” by the NFL into a later slot for more eyes to see.

You have opinions. We all do. Some of yours may have to do with the Falcons. Sign up today and share them.

by tlozwarlock on Nov 6, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I am still not so sure why we should be concerned about the Jets. I dont see them as much of a threat. Maybe I am way off base, but I dont see it.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Nov 6, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Every game is within grasp

If the assumption is that there are really only four teams that have an even to good chance of beating the Falcons (Jets, Giants, Eagles, & Saints), then I’m not worried at all and think that we have a very good chance at winning every game, barring anymore of these damned injuries that is. And here’s a few things on each team that make think this way.

Jets - They are giving up 25.3 points in losses. Their best wins are a week 1 win over Houston and a week 2 win over NE, the latter probably not happening again. Other than that they have beaten Oakland (2-6) and Tenn (1-6). That not exactly stellar imo.

Eagles – Haha, you lost to Oakland! Seriously, they lost to Oakland, a team so inferior at every position there’s just no possible excuse for it. Realistically, besides the Saints the Eagles currently present the toughest competition of the four.

Giants – Any love heading the Giants way should cease immediately as they are not a good team. Their best win was an early week 2 win over Dallas. Other than that, they have beat Washington (2-5), Tampa (0-7), KC (1-6), and Oakland (2-6). That’s miserable. Also, in their losses they are giving up 37.3 points! They have no defense and the Falcons should be able to score easily on them.

That only leaves us with the Saints and we all know how much of a winnable game that was at thier place. The second time around I have to believe that we do better and it will be at home. Even if we lose to the Saints again, every single other game with maybe the exception of the Eagles should be easily winnable. I see no reason to project more than two losses, if that, for the rest of the season.

And yes, there is definitely some hometeam love in that, but this is a Falcons site so I’m not sure what else you were expecting here?

"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick

by Jesse28 on Nov 6, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd.

Nice post. The numbers don’t lie. As I’ve said before, I’m not completely sold on the Giants being bad. If they continue to lose, I’ll believe it. The Eagles are playing two faced right now, so we’ll have to hope the bad team side shows up in the ATL, but either way I think we can beat them.

by Zippo729 on Nov 6, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eagles

Always lay one or two eggs during the course of a season. Like you said, hopefully the “bad team side” shows up in a few weeks.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since I predicted 13 and 3 , looks like we will have to sweep the rest to make it a reality !

GIants, Saints, Eagles, Panthers and Jets will all pose a good challenge, but all are winnable.

Giants and Jets have lost 3 in a row, Eagles lost to Raiders, Panthers have no passing game, and we got the revenge factor vs Saints at home.

If we get Norwood and Snelling back healthy, I think it can be done.

by WarWolf on Nov 6, 2009 11:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

looks like

everybody is coming around to my kind of thinking . I’m not saying we will run the board , but we definitely have a chance to .

by TRUBIRD1 on Nov 7, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

patriots cowboys and Falcons are possible saint's losses

13-3 tie for both teams falcons win division.
OK OK But If we are at our best and the saints are looking human again in the last 3 weeks, i can foresee a possible strong ending to our regular season.

by Funballad on Nov 10, 2009 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs