Remaining Opponent Records: A Trip into Easy Town?
by Adam Schultz on Nov 25, 2009 10:53 AM EST
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PrintThe schedule continues to get easier and easier. Here's the graph:
The two winning season teams are definitely skewing things a bit. Take them out of the picture, and you get a number that is sweet upon the ears: 9-31 combined record of Bucs, Jets, Bills, Bucs. We can win against a 9-31 slate of games. The real question is, can we win against the 16-4 side of the remaining schedule? I think we'll win at least one of them. 10-6 would be an awesome ending mark, dontcha think? I still say 9-7, but I'm not giving up hope just yet.
The predicted records are the same as they were last week, no real change. We'll still have some easy, easy games. I'm still saying the Saints lose against NE this Monday. I still think the Bills suck.
With all of this remaining opponent talk, I'd like you to follow the jump for a look at my perspective on the Falcons' playoff potential.
The Falcons have been getting a bit of buzz with their remaining slate of games, seeing as only two of our last six opponents currently have winning records. Don Banks pegs the Falcons as the most dangerous .500 team in the NFC. Knox Bardeen of Fanhouse agrees. Why all this optimisim? The schedule, as you can see above, is easy peasy (or at least, should be).
The Falcons are currently in 8th place in the NFC, two spots shy of that illustrious Wild Card playoff berth, with the Eagles and Giants standing above them. The Eagles have the following slate remaining. I'll include my predictions for the rest of their season:
| Redskins | W |
| Falcons | L |
| Giants | L |
| 49ers | W |
| Broncos | L |
| Cowboys | L |
I realize the Broncos are in a skid but I'm holding out for an upset. The Philly Cheesesteaks currently stand at 6-4, and with my prediction, end the year 8-8. With their inconsistent play, I truly do not know what to expect, but this is what I'm feeling and hoping for.
The Giants' schedule is a bit harder to pick. I'll try my best:
| Broncos | L |
| Cowboys | L |
| Eagles | W |
| Redskins | W |
| Panthers | W |
| Vikings | L |
The Giants will end the year 9-7. They stand at 6-4 and have a short week, facing the Broncos tomorrow night on NFL Network. I feel they won't be nearly as rested and ready as they need to be to survive a mile high showdown. The issue is then tiebreakers. With a 9-7 Falcons and a 9-7 Giants thirsting for a playoff spot, who wins? Well, in a two-club record tie situation, the rules are thus:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
So who wins in this case? The Giants, of course, seeing as the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head comparison. Head-to-head, the Giants beat the Falcons 34-31. Case closed.
Of course, all this goes out of the window if the Falcons win five (or, Vishnu willing, six) more games and both the Eagles and Giants flunk out of the rest of their seasons. In that case, the Falcons would likely be a lock.
Still, I stand by what I said in a comment on a previous post: this team is not a playoff caliber team as long as they cannot win on the road. They're 1-5 now when visiting other teams and that does not a playoff team make. If we go to the playoffs, great. If not, that's ok. I just want that 9-7 at the end of the year. I'll be immensely proud of our team whether they make it to the postseason or not. Just please, let's get those back-to-back winning seasons.
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looks fair enough...
but I would question the premise that BOTH the Eagles and the Giants lose to Dallas. they always play competitive football, and last year in the same situation Philly beat Dallas in the decisive game to steal that wild card spot…
and the Vikings could get things wrapped up by then
which could then mean less motivation for them in the last game of the season
I like it ...
Great analysis Tloz. I really think the Giants aren’t as good as we made them look last week. To that effect, I really don’t think we’re as bad as we’ve looked lately. 5 or 6 wins would be AMAZING … and I think it’ll get ’er done. Fingers crossed.
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
I agree with you Franky. We’re not that bad, to be honest. We can pull this off, because of the favorable schedule down the stretch. With key players coming back healthy, and Matt breaking out of his slump, this will be a lot fun. I see the Birds 7-5 by the Saints games. Just remember that horrid stretch the Falcons just came out of from Sept. 26- Nov. 22nd…
by falconplanet on Nov 27, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Just remember that horrid stretch the Falcons just came out of from Sept. 26- Nov. 22nd…
I’d rather not. But yeah, you’re spot-on with that prediction. We almost beat the Aints away, no reason we can’t make it a game at home.
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
I rather not remember it myself, but I think the Falcons will learn from it and be a better team in the long run. You know, 3-5 was not that bad, but 4-4 would of been a heck of alot better. It was a quirk of the schedule, and hope it doesn’t happen the Falcons again.
by falconplanet on Nov 28, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
Like the analysis as well. As I said on another post, let’s do this one at a time and shoot for number 9. We can win at least two of these home games, and I still think we can beat the Saints. I do expect a couple of these teams to fade, notably the Packers and Giants, but let’s just take care of our own business and we’ll go from there. Just keep the faith, my friends :-)
I agree, all I want is 9 wins.
"Ryan, under center. Single receiver set, time on his side. Ryan, gonna throw. First professional pass.....CAUGHT!! Jenkins! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! 5! He lives in Atlanta!!!"
turner was back at practice today
i’d be surprised if he played this week but, it’s good news nonetheless.
Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don't like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that. - Bill Shankly
by armchair quarterback on Nov 25, 2009 9:47 PM EST reply actions
I expect Gonzo to will the Falcons into the playoffs.
Matty Ice was clutch in the 4th quarter last week and I expect more of the same.
Weems finally got involved for a TD and we will hear more from him.
Turner and Norwood will return soon.
We need some bad luck for Cowboys, GB, Eagles or Giants to get in. I expect that will happen. They have some tough games left and injuries occur on those teams too.
I figure Falcons win take care of biz at home vs Philly and NO in hard games and manage to beat the Bucs, Jets and Bills. I still see the Falcons winning out.
I agree with you WarWolf, just like I said on some eariler posts. Things are going to turn in our favor, after the brutal eight week stretch that just ended. Key players are getting healthy, and the schedule is in our favor. Have to keep the faith and stick with them.
What falconplanet and WarWolf said ...
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
70% chance you miss...
http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?i=1
Or looking at another way there’s a 30% chance you make it. As a rival, I took the half-empty mindset :)
They also say that GB has the highest probability of making it - 74%
However, I think there is a flaw in this system, based on its description. they take points scored by the team and points scored against and use it as a measure of the team’s strength (which is then used in simulations). it says nothing about taking into account strength of victory of strength of schedule.
Although GB has a better record, their combined strength of victory is 19-41 compared to ATL’s 20-30.
If it comes to tie breakers between ATL and GB, it may end up being strength of victory. We may have the same record at year end (10-6 or 9-7), same conference record and the same results against common opponents (SF, CHI, DAL, TB). All this means the chances are even for these teams, or at least much closer than 30 to 74.
Let's worry about the Falcons
Let’s take care of our own business starting on Sunday, and we’ll take the help anywhere we can. Win this game, and move to the next, and not worry about what the Packers and Eagles are doing. If the Falcons would of won some of these games during what I call “The Stretch” they wouldn’t be in the position they are now. They’ll be fine with the favorable schedule and key players getting healthy. I think that one of those teams will fade down the stretch.
by falconplanet on Nov 28, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Overall our chances improve if
GB losses games its supposed to against AFC North (BAL and PIT) playoff hopefuls, and someone in the NFC East (preferably DAL or NYG) win out in their division which would mean the other two lose. In this case we could end up having the same record or better than the other wild card contenders.
Of course nothing makes the difference if we are not 7-5 before the NO game…
GB just lost Harris and Kaupman for the year.
That hurts their D a lot.
Falcons just now getting Burner and Jerious back.
Makes Falcons O much better.
So those 2 teams at least are not the same as they were last week.
Giants lost to Denver Thursday also. Although NY holds the tiebreakers, they have a rough schedule remaining. We could still pass NY for a WC berth.
We need 2 or 3 of these teams to end their seasons on a sour note :
NY
GBay
Eagles
Dallas
... well
Three of four to be exact.
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
Well one of those teams will win the NFC East so they won’t be a WC team.
As it stands, that looks like Dallas.
But the Cowboys normally fade in Dec so I am keeping them in the WC picture.
Right ...
So four teams. One wins the NFC East. The other three need to struggle down the stretch for a Falcons playoff birth. Three out of four.
You’re right about the ’boys … Romo is a hack.
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
we should take one of them down next week
or else this discussion will only have theoretical implications
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