Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 11
via i37.tinypic.com
For your amusement, here are this week's numbers. Enjoy!
RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):
At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.
Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?
(spreadsheet)
|
Rank |
Power Rating |
W-L-T |
PF/G |
PA/G |
|
Offense Rating |
Defense Rating |
Total |
||
|
1 |
91.2 |
7-3-0 |
29.0 |
16.4 |
0.900 |
0.924 |
1.824 |
|||
|
2 |
88.4 |
10-0-0 |
26.9 |
15.7 |
0.820 |
0.948 |
1.768 |
|||
|
3 |
84.0 |
9-1-0 |
30.6 |
19.3 |
0.941 |
0.740 |
1.681 |
|||
|
4 |
81.5 |
10-0-0 |
36.9 |
20.4 |
0.996 |
0.634 |
1.630 |
|||
|
5 |
76.6 |
5-5-0 |
23.7 |
17.1 |
0.639 |
0.893 |
1.532 |
|||
|
6 |
73.5 |
7-3-0 |
23.1 |
17.5 |
0.599 |
0.871 |
1.470 |
|||
|
7 |
72.2 |
7-3-0 |
26.9 |
20.5 |
0.820 |
0.624 |
1.444 |
|||
|
8 |
72.0 |
6-4-0 |
26.6 |
20.4 |
0.806 |
0.634 |
1.440 |
|||
|
9 |
71.5 |
6-4-0 |
26.2 |
20.3 |
0.786 |
0.645 |
1.431 |
|||
|
10 |
71.2 |
7-3-0 |
25.0 |
19.7 |
0.720 |
0.703 |
1.423 |
|||
|
11 |
70.6 |
6-4-0 |
23.1 |
18.4 |
0.599 |
0.813 |
1.412 |
|||
|
12 |
70.0 |
7-3-0 |
21.5 |
16.7 |
0.489 |
0.911 |
1.400 |
|||
|
13 |
62.4 |
4-6-0 |
21.3 |
18.9 |
0.475 |
0.774 |
1.249 |
|||
|
14 |
59.9 |
5-5-0 |
23.2 |
20.8 |
0.606 |
0.593 |
1.199 |
|||
|
15 |
55.7 |
6-4-0 |
26.6 |
23.5 |
0.806 |
0.309 |
1.115 |
|||
|
16 |
55.5 |
5-5-0 |
25.2 |
22.8 |
0.732 |
0.379 |
1.110 |
|||
|
17 |
51.4 |
6-4-0 |
17.0 |
18.3 |
0.208 |
0.820 |
1.027 |
|||
|
18 |
50.6 |
4-6-0 |
20.8 |
21.0 |
0.440 |
0.572 |
1.012 |
|||
|
19 |
48.1 |
3-7-0 |
14.6 |
17.8 |
0.109 |
0.853 |
0.962 |
|||
|
20 |
45.0 |
5-5-0 |
24.2 |
24.4 |
0.671 |
0.228 |
0.900 |
|||
|
21 |
41.8 |
4-6-0 |
20.6 |
22.5 |
0.426 |
0.410 |
0.836 |
|||
|
22 |
34.4 |
6-4-0 |
19.9 |
23.5 |
0.379 |
0.309 |
0.688 |
|||
|
23 |
34.4 |
3-7-0 |
19.6 |
23.3 |
0.359 |
0.328 |
0.687 |
|||
|
24 |
30.6 |
4-6-0 |
19.3 |
23.9 |
0.340 |
0.271 |
0.611 |
|||
|
25 |
26.0 |
3-7-0 |
15.5 |
22.8 |
0.141 |
0.379 |
0.519 |
|||
|
26 |
25.6 |
4-6-0 |
20.9 |
27.2 |
0.447 |
0.066 |
0.513 |
|||
|
27 |
23.7 |
3-7-0 |
16.9 |
23.9 |
0.203 |
0.271 |
0.474 |
|||
|
28 |
17.4 |
3-7-0 |
10.8 |
23.4 |
0.029 |
0.318 |
0.347 |
|||
|
29 |
13.9 |
2-8-0 |
18.1 |
30.1 |
0.267 |
0.011 |
0.278 |
|||
|
30 |
9.8 |
1-9-0 |
16.4 |
29.4 |
0.179 |
0.018 |
0.197 |
|||
|
31 |
7.1 |
1-9-0 |
11.5 |
26.3 |
0.038 |
0.104 |
0.141 |
|||
|
32 |
5.4 |
1-9-0 |
11.3 |
27.0 |
0.035 |
0.073 |
0.108 |
|||
|
|
means: |
21.7 |
21.7 |
|
Surprising to see the Ravens still high in the ratings, though their O and D numbers are pretty solid. I wish our Falcons were up there too at 5-5, but their D rating has plunged alarmingly. Vikings and Saints have both improved some mediocre numbers lately, and crept up near the top.
The Chargers' handy victory over Denver moved them up 8 slots; seven teams moved up by two places. The Steelers & Bengals both deservedly fell 4 spots, Broncos & Seahawks 3.
That's it for Week 11, I hope youse guys found a pearl of wisdom or two in there somewhere. Spreadsheet download is here. Prost!
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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Comments
Like clockwork
thanks man. Have you noticed that the means for PF and PA differ significantly for the AFC and NFC? AFC PF: 20.5, NFC: 22.6.
by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 24, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions
Interesting heads up
I didn’t realize that the NFC and AFC were so disparate, that’s a pretty decent spread there!
There’s another curious trend this year when you look at the two Normal Curves for O and D. As the spreadsheet shows, the Standard Deviation for offense is 5.7 while defense is only 3.7 right now. That’s quite a difference between two curves you’d intuitively expect to look very similar. Those numbers are usually much closer to each other, historically.
Finally a power ranking i can live with
I guess even a blind dog finds a bone every once in a while lol
Good Job
GEAUX SAINTS
Glad you're pleased but...
…your praise should be directed at the Saints’ D. Allowing only 7 points to the mighty Bucs did wonders for their numbers.
If the Saints made a handshake...
…deal with the next three teams, agreeing to lose by the score of 0-3 in the next three games, they’ll would be the runaway #1 team in this poll. In fact, they would get pretty close to the magical 2.0 aggregate rating.
Hi, Tom. Yea, it's me again.
Good win for you guys today. STOP IT!
It’s bad enough we have to keep at least one game ahead of the Vikings without looking over our shoulder at what you guys are doing!
My best to all the Falcoholics!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 29, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Looking over your shoulder?
At the Falcons? LOL! Relax and enjoy the fun ride youse guys are getting this year. You never know when another one of these will happen again. Good luck against the Pats, my man.
Cool Ranking.
In my opinion, what makes the Saints not being in the first 2 positions is that their defense was allowing many points in the beginning of the season, but now they’re really better. Probably, they’ll end the season on the top3 of your ranking.
I’m gonna post my Power Ranking today, it’s a little bit different (Saints are 2nd, Falcons are 15th).

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