DVOA Matchup - NY Giants

This is my first attempt at a Matchup post, so if I'm leaving something out that you guys think I'm overlooking, just let me know in the comments.  I'm going to try to find areas the Falcons can exploit, or where we are especially vulnerable - using Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here).  A quick explanation is that it is a percentage above or below average, with positive numbers good for Offense and negative numbers good for Defense.

Just so everybody is clear, I'm going to list the DVOA, then the league Rank, because what does a 58.7% Passing Offense mean (besides 50%+ better than average)?  I think it's easier to understand if I tell you that's the #1 Passing Offense in the league (that's the Patriots, by the way).  The DVOA number is more important, because there may be a huge gap between #5 and #6, but both numbers together should give everybody a good idea of where we stand.

When the Falcons have the ball:

Yes, the Running Game is all the way up to #6 in the league after the horrendous start to the season.  The flip side of that is that the Passing Game is down to middle of the pack after a great start.  Obviously, it looks like our Running Game would be the way to attack, but with Turner and Norwood both hobbled, it will be a tough task.  Looking deeper, our Offensive Line and their Defensive Line is basically a wash - both units are in the Top 10 in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) and Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR).  The only areas they look to be vulnerable are runs to the outside.  Their D-Line is well below average on runs to Left End (#28) and to Right End (#25), plus they are dead last (#32) in allowing runs of 10+ yards (this may actually be a problem with the Linebackers, not the D-Line).

I included the Variance number because I thought it was very interesting.  What it means is that the Falcons' overall Offensive production has been one of the most consistent in the league.  Obviously, it doesn't account for wild swings in the Run and Passing game, just the overall number.  Sadly, we've been consistently average (the #15 ranking).  If they could just put together complete games offensively...  The Giants defense has been one of the least consistent units in the league, which seems to be good for us.  Generally, they have a solid defense, but they are prone to have a stinkbomb every now and again.

When the Giants have the ball:

Ugh, our defense is ugly.  And our Pass Defense has an Equal Opportunity Policy - they are ranked #25 against #1 WR's, #27 against #2 WR's, and #24 against "Other" WR's.  Pass Defense against TE's and RB's has been better, but the Giants don't use them in the passing game too much (Boss only has 32 targets, Jacobs 20, and Bradshaw 13).  I'd expect a "death by 1000 papercuts" game out of Steve Smith (17.8% DVOA, 61 Receptions, 11.8 YPC), plus a few huge plays from Hakeem Nicks (13.4% DVOA, 23 Receptions, 17.7 YPC).  On paper, their Offensive Line versus our Defensive Line looks to be the biggest mismatch of the game, though:

We're going to struggle to stop the Run; we're going to have a hard time putting pressure on Manning; therefore, we're going to struggle stopping the Pass.  That's nothing new.

Special Teams:

Not a lot to report here.  The Giants are slightly below average in every aspect of Special Teams except Kickoffs/KO Coverage.  The Falcons are the #1 team in Kickoffs/KO Coverage; slightly above average in KO Returns and Punt Returns; slightly below average in Punts/Punt Coverage; and #31 (ahead of only Tampa) in Field Goals and Extra Points.  Special Teams should not be a big factor, unless the game hinges on another Elam FG try.

Overall:

The numbers show that the Giants are the (slightly) better team, plus they're at home and coming off a BYE.  Most of the biggest mismatches seem to swing their way, as well.  Our best chance may be somthing that numbers can't quantify - emotions.  Maybe they play out of their minds because their backs are to the wall; maybe they get a boost if Norwood (or Turner) unexpectedly plays.  I'm just not getting my hopes too high for this one.