via i37.tinypic.com
Bummed about the Panthers game? Do as Professor Frink does when HE's feeling blue! Immerse yourself in warm, soothing data. Ahhh...
RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):
At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.
Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?
Rank |
Power Rating |
|
W-L-T |
PF/G |
PA/G |
|
Offense Rating |
Defense Rating |
Total |
|
1 |
90.1 |
9-0-0 |
28.0 |
15.8 |
0.856 |
0.946 |
1.802 |
|||
2 |
89.9 |
6-3-0 |
28.8 |
16.7 |
0.883 |
0.914 |
1.798 |
|||
3 |
79.3 |
5-4-0 |
24.7 |
17.1 |
0.692 |
0.894 |
1.585 |
|||
4 |
77.7 |
8-1-0 |
30.1 |
20.4 |
0.922 |
0.633 |
1.555 |
|||
5 |
74.5 |
6-3-0 |
24.9 |
18.8 |
0.705 |
0.786 |
1.491 |
|||
6 |
73.6 |
9-0-0 |
36.8 |
21.9 |
0.994 |
0.479 |
1.473 |
|||
7 |
73.2 |
6-3-0 |
23.0 |
17.4 |
0.587 |
0.876 |
1.463 |
|||
8 |
72.4 |
7-2-0 |
22.0 |
16.3 |
0.521 |
0.928 |
1.448 |
|||
9 |
72.1 |
5-4-0 |
25.8 |
19.9 |
0.754 |
0.688 |
1.442 |
|||
10 |
72.1 |
5-4-0 |
26.9 |
20.4 |
0.809 |
0.633 |
1.442 |
|||
11 |
69.9 |
4-5-0 |
22.1 |
17.6 |
0.528 |
0.870 |
1.398 |
|||
12 |
68.4 |
6-3-0 |
25.4 |
20.4 |
0.736 |
0.633 |
1.369 |
|||
13 |
61.5 |
5-4-0 |
23.9 |
20.9 |
0.644 |
0.586 |
1.231 |
|||
14 |
60.4 |
6-3-0 |
18.6 |
16.8 |
0.299 |
0.910 |
1.209 |
|||
15 |
60.1 |
6-3-0 |
26.3 |
22.4 |
0.783 |
0.419 |
1.201 |
|||
16 |
60.0 |
5-4-0 |
24.6 |
21.6 |
0.685 |
0.515 |
1.200 |
|||
17 |
57.5 |
5-4-0 |
25.8 |
22.7 |
0.754 |
0.395 |
1.149 |
|||
18 |
54.7 |
4-5-0 |
20.4 |
20.0 |
0.417 |
0.677 |
1.094 |
|||
19 |
46.0 |
3-6-0 |
15.6 |
19.0 |
0.151 |
0.768 |
0.919 |
|||
20 |
45.3 |
3-6-0 |
20.8 |
22.0 |
0.439 |
0.466 |
0.905 |
|||
21 |
43.1 |
4-5-0 |
20.7 |
22.3 |
0.432 |
0.431 |
0.862 |
|||
22 |
41.6 |
4-5-0 |
24.2 |
25.2 |
0.665 |
0.168 |
0.833 |
|||
23 |
31.7 |
Panthers |
4-5-0 |
19.6 |
23.9 |
0.360 |
0.275 |
0.634 |
||
24 |
31.1 |
5-4-0 |
20.1 |
24.4 |
0.395 |
0.227 |
0.622 |
|||
25 |
24.4 |
3-6-0 |
21.0 |
28.3 |
0.454 |
0.035 |
0.489 |
|||
26 |
23.9 |
3-6-0 |
15.6 |
23.3 |
0.151 |
0.327 |
0.478 |
|||
27 |
21.7 |
2-7-0 |
15.8 |
23.9 |
0.160 |
0.275 |
0.435 |
|||
28 |
13.9 |
2-7-0 |
9.8 |
24.1 |
0.023 |
0.255 |
0.277 |
|||
29 |
13.5 |
1-8-0 |
17.4 |
28.4 |
0.238 |
0.033 |
0.270 |
|||
30 |
9.9 |
1-8-0 |
8.7 |
25.0 |
0.014 |
0.184 |
0.198 |
|||
31 |
9.2 |
1-8-0 |
15.9 |
29.3 |
0.165 |
0.019 |
0.183 |
|||
32 |
4.5 |
1-8-0 |
11.1 |
27.7 |
0.038 |
0.052 |
0.089 |
|||
|
|
means |
21.7 |
21.7 |
|
The Ravens' shutout of the lowly Browns worked wonders for them here, who knew they were "better" than the Saints? What a revelation! Colts were (fittingly?) back at #1 this week. Jets appear to be the best darn mediocre team around, these ratings absolutely love them this year. Only a handful of teams moved in the rankings much this week. Our Falcons fell 4 spots, exceeded only by the Eagles, down 7. Climbers were led by the Vikings, up 5 slots, Ravens up 4.
There's our Fun With Numbers for Week 10. I hope you reaped a nugget or two of insight, and take something good away from an otherwise forgettable Falcons weekend. Download the spreadsheet here, if you wish. Salud!