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Current Strength of Schedule vs Projected Strength of Schedule

Before I start this post, just thought I'd rep some awesome fans over at the FalconsLife message boards. In advance of a possible fine on our beloved Coach Smith, some intrepid fans have gathered a movement to raise $2300 dollars. Even if the fine does not come down, the fans will be donating the money to Mike Smith's charity of choice. Click this link to go to user flip7's post with further information. In one day, the gang there has managed to raise over $1100. Fine or not, it's great to see the fanbase so united for a good cause (charity AND support of Smitty).

Now, onto business. First, let's check out our updated strength of schedule based on our remaining opponents' current records.

Week10actualgraph_medium

Notice that, really, it hasn't changed all that much. Yeah, it's gotten squeezed a little bit by the Bucs' win last weekend, but all in all, we're still facing three winning teams and five losing teams. But I didn't finish my research there. Follow the jump to see what tomfoolery I've been up to.

Star-divide

Now, let's add a slight wrinkle to all this. I sat down and gazed at our opponents' schedules leading up to their game against us. That means that the Panthers and Giants didn't get looked at (Panthers are this Sunday, so their 3-5 record stands; Giants are on their BYE. Lucky us). Seeing these schedules, I did what any sane, rational person would do and projected our opponents' records to the point that they play us. Here's the rundown of what I came up with:

Panthers 3 5
Giants 5 4
Bucs 1 9
Eagles 7 4
Saints 11 1
Jets 8 5
Bills 6 8
Bucs 1 14

With my predicted records, we gain a winning team to our slate of remaining games and our graph gets a somewhat-significant squeeze. It still resembles a messy rollercoaster, though.

 Week10projectedgraph_medium

You gotta love that steep drop off in competition after the second Saints game. That second-consecutive winning season ain't looking so far away anymore, now is it?

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Tom Foolery indeed

Nice work. I am still not worried too much about the Jets. Who knows what the Giants are going to play like after the bye week. I am just trying to look at the game in fornt of us now instead of looking ahead. I say we demolish Kakalak first, then worry about the Giants.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Nov 12, 2009 8:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

You've got a lot more faith

in the Jets than I do. I think they’re borderline terrible. It will still be a tough game going against a Rex Ryan defense on the road, but Sanchize probably can’t take advantage of our secondary…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by orang3b on Nov 12, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Due to Carolina's resurgents run game and Giants coming off a bye....

I see us losing the next two. But I got a feeling we’ll run the table after that. The Eagles will be a tough test though with their excellent pass rush.

by Darkhorse99 on Nov 12, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

um... NAH

kakalak sux. We will win this week for sure.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Nov 12, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still can't get over how unfair it is

that we had to face so many teams off of a bye week after having such an early bye week ourselves. It’s like we have to face a bunch of fresh teams while we keep getting more and more worn out.

I bet the Falcons win against the Panthers this Sunday, but beating the Giants off of a bye is going to be tough.

know what you believe in and why you believe in it

by MentallyMIA on Nov 12, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Quality adjustments

I think it paints a better picture of our upcoming schedule that way.

Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!

by Dave the Falconer on Nov 12, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good analysis

Every NFL game is hard to win.

But if we take them one at a time, we have a good chance to win each of the games.

by WarWolf on Nov 12, 2009 7:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Is it just me?

Is it just me or are we under estimating the potential of our team? On any given Sunday our Atlanta Falcons are capable of beating any teaml in the NFL. The only team we need to really worry about is ourselves! We are young and getting better but when will we see the real Atlanta Falcons!!!! Time will tell…

by Gjmoody on Nov 13, 2009 8:21 AM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

nice optimism

I tend to believe the same, sometimes when we play poorly it makes me think otherwise. I really think we have a good team here. A couple more pieces on the D and we are a franchise to be reckoned with.

Life is a garden. Dig it!

by Hardcore Falcon on Nov 13, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

I am happy with Atlanta’s play this year, I think we have a lot of upside on offense. I don’t see how teams can account for Gonzo Burner and White as threats.

by WarWolf on Nov 14, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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