Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 8
by orang3b on Nov 10, 2009 4:14 PM EST
8 comments
Falcons-Saints on Monday Night Football, need I say more?
Offense
Michael Turner was great. Matt Ryan had troubles – we know that. Let’s talk about their First Down performance, as comparison. We’ve been slightly critical of the play-calling here (first down, Turner up the middle; second down, Turner up the middle; third down, pass). Turner certainly did his part when he got the ball of First Downs. He had 13 carries for 74 yards (a 5.7 yard average), including a 13 yard TD run. First down should be one of the easiest times to pass the ball (easier than 3rd and Long, at least), but Ryan struggled here, just like he did in other down & distance situations. Excluding two 4th Quarter spikes to stop the clock, and one scramble for 3 yards, Ryan had six first down completions for 73 yards. Sounds good, right? Well, you also have to take into account his seven incompletions. But wait, it gets worse: all three of the Saints’ sacks were on first down plays. 6-13 for 73 yards with 3 sacks is not going to get it done. Presented another way, his Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A – Pass Yards minus Sack yards divided by Pass Attempts plus Sacks) was 4.1 on First Downs. League Average is 6.1 NY/A (on all downs). Still, if not for the Tracy Porter interception in the Red Zone, after a tipped ball by Jonathan Vilma, they may have been able to win this one. I still say that was the biggest play of the game – down 24-28, about to score after the Pierre Thomas fumble. Instead, the Saints get the ball back with 8:30 left in the game, then go down and score to push the lead to 11.
Defense
|
Name |
Plays |
Stop Rate |
Defeats |
|
13 |
38% |
0 |
|
|
8 |
38% |
1 |
|
|
8 |
25% |
1 |
|
|
8 |
44% |
0 |
|
|
Mike Peterson |
5.5 |
18% |
0 |
|
5 |
20% |
0 |
|
|
4 |
38% |
1 |
|
|
4 |
38% |
0 |
|
|
3 |
67% |
1 |
|
|
2.5 |
80% |
1 |
|
|
2.5 |
100% |
0 |
|
|
2 |
100% |
1 |
|
|
2 |
50% |
0 |
|
|
2 |
100% |
1 |
There are a lot of names on that list; do you see who’s missing? John Abraham had no sacks, and no tackles – he is credited in the box score with one QB Hit. I gave credit for two “Plays” for Coy Wire on what was really just one play – the one with less than 2 minutes left in the 4th Quarter where he had a Forced Fumble on Mike Bell (for a Stop/Defeat), and then came out of the pile with the Fumble Recovery himself (for a separate Stop). Looks like a pretty nice showing from Vance Walker. Considering how explosive the Saints Offense is, giving up 28 points (taking away the pick-6) is a pretty decent day.
The biggest problem here wasn’t just the big plays given up (there were six plays of 20+ yards allowed), but the consistency that New Orleans showed in getting the medium-to-long gains. Colston, for example, totally killed us: 10 yards on 3rd & 10; 18 yards for a TD; 15 yards on 1st & 10; 6 yards on 2nd & 10; 29 yards on 2nd & 8; and 7 yards on 2nd & 6 to set up a First & Goal. He caught all six passes headed his way, and all but one went for a First Down or TD.
Special Teams Tackles: One each for Mike Schneck, Brent Grimes, Michael Koenen, Jamaal Fudge; plus there was Coy Wire’s recovery of the Onsides Kick.
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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Horrendous 1st down O stats
It’s a tribute to the Falcons’ D that we were still in the game so late. When your offense screws up on first down that much, you’re not exactly putting yourself in a position to succeed.
Thanks for the recap from your unique perspective!
by tom slick on Nov 10, 2009 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
And yeah, after “digging a little deeper” to see what happened during the course of the game, I was a little surprised we were able to stick around (not get blown out). The Saints had their share of mistakes, too. Most of them were “forced” mistakes, though – Grimes’ super-human INT, the Forced Fumbles, etc. Giving up only 28 points, and handing the team 7, the defense certainly did their part. Hopefully Mularkey & Ryan will be able to figure out their pressure/coverage packages better for the rematch in about a month or so.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 11, 2009 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I continue to be impressed with Duff Man ...
The kid got knocked around a bit last year, but he’s really growing into his own (and these stats help to substantiate that proposition).
Am I reading this wrong, or did Mike Peterson get completely owned? I wonder whether there’s something schematic about his stop rate … in other words, is VG putting him setting him up for a low stop rate?
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Nov 11, 2009 12:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Peterson
I dunno. I wouldn’t call it “owned”. He was just in on the tackle for several 6-9 yard runs and 8-11 yard passes. Whether all of those were his “fault”, I don’t know yet. I do know he’s not performing like he was early in the year, especially in pass coverage. I’m not sure if he’s being instructed to attack to compensate for some of the DT injuries, but he’s been way out of position on play-action passes the last couple weeks. The only reason he was in position to stop the 4th down play to Mike Sellers in the 4th Quarter agains the Redskins was that Babineaux blew up the RG and slowed up Sellers’ release from the backfield… Figuring out what’s going on with Peterson is one of my two projects right now – along with Matt Ryan. The QB sees and processes so much information, though, I don’t think I have any hope of solving that one.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 11, 2009 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wsup with Abraham!
Is Abraham hurt? He doesn’t seem to be getting the sacks I thought he would this season. Although, he was in the backfield and had some hurries — does he have a health issue we need to worry about?
by Gjmoody on Nov 11, 2009 8:20 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I'm not too worried about Abe
He still looks pretty good to me (he doesn’t look slow/hurt). We’ve discussed a little bit before about how he is dropping back into coverage on Zone Blitzes more this year than I remember in the past. I didn’t expect too much from him in the Saints game, because Brees is one of the best at getting the ball out quickly.
Right now, at the half-way point, he has 3.5 sacks. Before the season I would’ve predicted about 10 this year (he had 16.5 last year, the most in his career). If he has a couple good games, he’ll be right back on track for ~10. I think he’ll be OK in the 2nd half of the season.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 11, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great job with Stats on this! Stats requested on WR position
Orang3b, can you please put together something on WR/receiving stats. Besides Michael Jenkins sucking, Roddy hurt , Finneran hurt, and Gonzo usually pretty good, what can we expect out of Marty Booker, Weems, and Stecker this week? Your opinion in a fanpost would be good.
What I really want to know is how many drops this year so far, and by whom? Sure Matt Ryan can’t produce in the Redzone, but is it all his fault?
by Teamfastpitch on Nov 14, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
As for “what to expect”? I’m just working to try to get a clearer picture of what happened – I really have no idea what to expect, other than to quote whatever their weekly averages are. My quick personal opinion on Booker, Weems, and Stecker would be not to expect too much, though…
Those other questions require a little digging, and I will add that to the “to do” list. Shouldn’t be too hard. I just don’t have the time to do it tonight. Also, I have all the numbers for the Redskins game figured, but I haven’t written the post, and won’t have it up before the Carolina game. But it’s coming. Eventually…
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Nov 14, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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