via i37.tinypic.com
Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge! And away we go...
RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):
At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.
Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?
|
Rank |
Power Rating |
|
W-L-T |
PF/G |
PA/G |
|
Offense Rating |
Defense Rating |
Total |
|
|
1 |
90.4 |
|
6-2-0 |
28.1 |
14.4 |
0.846 |
0.963 |
1.809 |
||
|
2 |
89.1 |
|
8-0-0 |
27.1 |
13.5 |
0.804 |
0.977 |
1.781 |
||
|
3 |
77.8 |
|
5-3-0 |
27.4 |
19.1 |
0.815 |
0.742 |
1.557 |
||
|
4 |
77.8 |
|
6-2-0 |
27.1 |
19.0 |
0.804 |
0.751 |
1.555 |
||
|
5 |
75.9 |
|
6-2-0 |
24.4 |
17.4 |
0.661 |
0.857 |
1.518 |
||
|
6 |
75.1 |
|
8-0-0 |
37.9 |
21.8 |
0.995 |
0.507 |
1.502 |
||
|
7 |
73.5 |
|
4-4-0 |
25.8 |
19.3 |
0.737 |
0.732 |
1.469 |
||
|
8 |
71.4 |
|
6-2-0 |
22.5 |
16.9 |
0.545 |
0.883 |
1.428 |
||
|
9 |
71.3 |
|
7-1-0 |
30.5 |
21.8 |
0.919 |
0.507 |
1.426 |
||
|
10 |
70.5 |
|
4-4-0 |
22.1 |
16.8 |
0.521 |
0.889 |
1.410 |
||
|
11 |
66.2 |
|
4-4-0 |
26.9 |
21.5 |
0.793 |
0.531 |
1.324 |
||
|
12 |
65.6 |
|
5-3-0 |
25.3 |
20.8 |
0.711 |
0.602 |
1.312 |
||
|
13 |
65.4 |
|
5-3-0 |
24.8 |
20.5 |
0.683 |
0.625 |
1.307 |
||
|
14 |
62.4 |
|
6-2-0 |
18.8 |
15.5 |
0.312 |
0.936 |
1.248 |
||
|
15 |
61.0 |
|
5-4-0 |
23.9 |
20.9 |
0.632 |
0.589 |
1.220 |
||
|
16 |
59.2 |
|
5-3-0 |
25.8 |
22.4 |
0.737 |
0.447 |
1.185 |
||
|
17 |
57.9 |
|
5-4-0 |
25.8 |
22.7 |
0.739 |
0.420 |
1.158 |
||
|
18 |
51.6 |
|
3-5-0 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
0.441 |
0.590 |
1.031 |
||
|
19 |
50.2 |
|
3-5-0 |
21.8 |
21.8 |
0.497 |
0.507 |
1.004 |
||
|
20 |
42.8 |
|
4-4-0 |
22.5 |
23.9 |
0.545 |
0.311 |
0.856 |
||
|
21 |
42.0 |
|
2-6-0 |
14.1 |
19.3 |
0.109 |
0.732 |
0.840 |
||
|
22 |
41.7 |
|
3-5-0 |
24.1 |
25.5 |
0.646 |
0.188 |
0.834 |
||
|
23 |
35.9 |
|
3-5-0 |
15.4 |
21.1 |
0.151 |
0.567 |
0.717 |
||
|
24 |
30.2 |
|
4-4-0 |
19.6 |
24.8 |
0.363 |
0.241 |
0.604 |
||
|
25 |
27.9 |
|
3-5-0 |
18.5 |
24.5 |
0.298 |
0.260 |
0.558 |
||
|
26 |
17.3 |
|
1-7-0 |
15.8 |
25.6 |
0.165 |
0.180 |
0.346 |
||
|
27 |
16.3 |
|
2-6-0 |
18.5 |
29.8 |
0.298 |
0.028 |
0.326 |
||
|
28 |
12.7 |
|
1-7-0 |
16.8 |
28.9 |
0.208 |
0.045 |
0.253 |
||
|
29 |
12.0 |
|
2-6-0 |
9.8 |
25.1 |
0.026 |
0.214 |
0.240 |
||
|
30 |
11.7 |
|
1-7-0 |
16.6 |
29.6 |
0.203 |
0.030 |
0.233 |
||
|
31 |
8.8 |
|
1-7-0 |
9.8 |
26.1 |
0.026 |
0.151 |
0.177 |
||
|
32 |
5.3 |
|
1-7-0 |
9.6 |
27.6 |
0.025 |
0.082 |
0.107 |
||
|
|
|
|
means = |
21.8 |
21.8 |
|
The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week. The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs). Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close. The Saints still get no love from these ratings. Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense! Life's not fair, Mom! A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.
That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers. Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy. Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two! You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers. Cheers!
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