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Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 9

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via i37.tinypic.com



Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge!  And away we go...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

          At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats.  The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked.  The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

          Here's how the ratings are calculated.  The first step is to calculate two simple stats:  Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team.  These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed.  Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1.  (This isn't something pulled from thin air.  It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique.  The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.)  You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense.  Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team.  Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive.  There you go.  Simple, right?

Rank

Power Rating

 

Team

W-L-T

PF/G

PA/G

 

Offense Rating

Defense Rating

Total

1

90.4

 

Patriots

6-2-0

28.1

14.4

0.846

0.963

1.809

2

89.1

 

Colts

8-0-0

27.1

13.5

0.804

0.977

1.781

3

77.8

 

Eagles

5-3-0

27.4

19.1

0.815

0.742

1.557

4

77.8

 

Cowboys

6-2-0

27.1

19.0

0.804

0.751

1.555

5

75.9

 

Steelers

6-2-0

24.4

17.4

0.661

0.857

1.518

6

75.1

 

Saints

8-0-0

37.9

21.8

0.995

0.507

1.502

7

73.5

 

Ravens

4-4-0

25.8

19.3

0.737

0.732

1.469

8

71.4

 

Bengals

6-2-0

22.5

16.9

0.545

0.883

1.428

9

71.3

 

Vikings

7-1-0

30.5

21.8

0.919

0.507

1.426

10

70.5

 

Jets

4-4-0

22.1

16.8

0.521

0.889

1.410

11

66.2

 

Packers

4-4-0

26.9

21.5

0.793

0.531

1.324

12

65.6

 

Falcons

5-3-0

25.3

20.8

0.711

0.602

1.312

13

65.4

 

Cardinals

5-3-0

24.8

20.5

0.683

0.625

1.307

14

62.4

 

Broncos

6-2-0

18.8

15.5

0.312

0.936

1.248

15

61.0

 

Texans

5-4-0

23.9

20.9

0.632

0.589

1.220

16

59.2

 

Chargers

5-3-0

25.8

22.4

0.737

0.447

1.185

17

57.9

 

Giants

5-4-0

25.8

22.7

0.739

0.420

1.158

18

51.6

 

Seahawks

3-5-0

20.9

20.9

0.441

0.590

1.031

19

50.2

 

49ers

3-5-0

21.8

21.8

0.497

0.507

1.004

20

42.8

 

Bears

4-4-0

22.5

23.9

0.545

0.311

0.856

21

42.0

 

Redskins

2-6-0

14.1

19.3

0.109

0.732

0.840

22

41.7

 

Dolphins

3-5-0

24.1

25.5

0.646

0.188

0.834

23

35.9

 

Bills

3-5-0

15.4

21.1

0.151

0.567

0.717

24

30.2

 

Jaguars

4-4-0

19.6

24.8

0.363

0.241

0.604

25

27.9

 

Panthers

3-5-0

18.5

24.5

0.298

0.260

0.558

26

17.3

 

Chiefs

1-7-0

15.8

25.6

0.165

0.180

0.346

27

16.3

 

Titans

2-6-0

18.5

29.8

0.298

0.028

0.326

28

12.7

 

Buccaneers

1-7-0

16.8

28.9

0.208

0.045

0.253

29

12.0

 

Raiders

2-6-0

9.8

25.1

0.026

0.214

0.240

30

11.7

 

Lions

1-7-0

16.6

29.6

0.203

0.030

0.233

31

8.8

 

Browns

1-7-0

9.8

26.1

0.026

0.151

0.177

32

5.3

 

Rams

1-7-0

9.6

27.6

0.025

0.082

0.107

 

 

 

means =

21.8

21.8

 

          The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week.  The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs).  Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close.  The Saints still get no love from these ratings.  Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense!  Life's not fair, Mom!  A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.

          That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers.  Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy.  Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two!  You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers.  Cheers!

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.

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