FanPost

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 9

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via i37.tinypic.com



Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge!  And away we go...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

          At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats.  The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked.  The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

          Here's how the ratings are calculated.  The first step is to calculate two simple stats:  Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team.  These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed.  Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1.  (This isn't something pulled from thin air.  It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique.  The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.)  You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense.  Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team.  Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive.  There you go.  Simple, right?

Rank

Power Rating

 

Team

W-L-T

PF/G

PA/G

 

Offense Rating

Defense Rating

Total

1

90.4

 

Patriots

6-2-0

28.1

14.4

0.846

0.963

1.809

2

89.1

 

Colts

8-0-0

27.1

13.5

0.804

0.977

1.781

3

77.8

 

Eagles

5-3-0

27.4

19.1

0.815

0.742

1.557

4

77.8

 

Cowboys

6-2-0

27.1

19.0

0.804

0.751

1.555

5

75.9

 

Steelers

6-2-0

24.4

17.4

0.661

0.857

1.518

6

75.1

 

Saints

8-0-0

37.9

21.8

0.995

0.507

1.502

7

73.5

 

Ravens

4-4-0

25.8

19.3

0.737

0.732

1.469

8

71.4

 

Bengals

6-2-0

22.5

16.9

0.545

0.883

1.428

9

71.3

 

Vikings

7-1-0

30.5

21.8

0.919

0.507

1.426

10

70.5

 

Jets

4-4-0

22.1

16.8

0.521

0.889

1.410

11

66.2

 

Packers

4-4-0

26.9

21.5

0.793

0.531

1.324

12

65.6

 

Falcons

5-3-0

25.3

20.8

0.711

0.602

1.312

13

65.4

 

Cardinals

5-3-0

24.8

20.5

0.683

0.625

1.307

14

62.4

 

Broncos

6-2-0

18.8

15.5

0.312

0.936

1.248

15

61.0

 

Texans

5-4-0

23.9

20.9

0.632

0.589

1.220

16

59.2

 

Chargers

5-3-0

25.8

22.4

0.737

0.447

1.185

17

57.9

 

Giants

5-4-0

25.8

22.7

0.739

0.420

1.158

18

51.6

 

Seahawks

3-5-0

20.9

20.9

0.441

0.590

1.031

19

50.2

 

49ers

3-5-0

21.8

21.8

0.497

0.507

1.004

20

42.8

 

Bears

4-4-0

22.5

23.9

0.545

0.311

0.856

21

42.0

 

Redskins

2-6-0

14.1

19.3

0.109

0.732

0.840

22

41.7

 

Dolphins

3-5-0

24.1

25.5

0.646

0.188

0.834

23

35.9

 

Bills

3-5-0

15.4

21.1

0.151

0.567

0.717

24

30.2

 

Jaguars

4-4-0

19.6

24.8

0.363

0.241

0.604

25

27.9

 

Panthers

3-5-0

18.5

24.5

0.298

0.260

0.558

26

17.3

 

Chiefs

1-7-0

15.8

25.6

0.165

0.180

0.346

27

16.3

 

Titans

2-6-0

18.5

29.8

0.298

0.028

0.326

28

12.7

 

Buccaneers

1-7-0

16.8

28.9

0.208

0.045

0.253

29

12.0

 

Raiders

2-6-0

9.8

25.1

0.026

0.214

0.240

30

11.7

 

Lions

1-7-0

16.6

29.6

0.203

0.030

0.233

31

8.8

 

Browns

1-7-0

9.8

26.1

0.026

0.151

0.177

32

5.3

 

Rams

1-7-0

9.6

27.6

0.025

0.082

0.107

 

 

 

means =

21.8

21.8

 

          The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week.  The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs).  Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close.  The Saints still get no love from these ratings.  Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense!  Life's not fair, Mom!  A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.

          That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers.  Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy.  Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two!  You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers.  Cheers!

<em>This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.</em>

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