Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 7
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 2:19 PM EDT
46 comments
via i37.tinypic.com
Fresh from the Gamble-Tron 2000, the Week 7 ratings await your perusal. Enjoy!
RATINGS COMPUTATION (for the uninitiated):
At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't supposed to be a perfect reflection of the real world, don't take them too seriously. It's interesting, though, that such a crude algorithm can be as accurate as I've seen it be over the last few years.
Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the population of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale to make them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?
What's up with the (cough) beloved Saints? Despite winning, they fell to 4th place! How can this be, you ask? The Saints are a textbook example of how this algorithm skews the numbers. Despite being about as good as an offense can be, the defense is the very embodiment of "average" (by the numbers at least). This effectively puts a cap on their power rating of about 75 or so. The Broncos are a mirror image of the Saints, with the emphasis on defense in their case. Note the teams above them all have a more favorable balance of O and D.
Teams on the rise were led by the Jets (the turd in this week's punchbowl) and Bengals, up 7 slots. Falling furthest were the Falcons (groan) and Bears, down 9 slots.
Hope y'all enjoy, you heah? Your Falcoholic feedback is welcome. You can download the spreadsheet here. Cheers!
This FanPost was written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. It does not necessarily reflect the views of The Falcoholic.
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what
that must be some fancy new kind of georgia math putting 2 two lose teams ahead of the saints i guess when we go 7-0 we will fall in the ratings also
by mississippisaintsfan on Oct 27, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If your defensive PPG continue to be mediocre, that may well happen
That’s how them fancy numbers work, all right.
Funny thing, you write without caps or punctuation just like the troll that was here last week.
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
/flagged as troll
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 27, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so
i’m a troll for questioning your power rankings
by mississippisaintsfan on Oct 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not at all
Just pointing out a remarkable similarity. You’re not a troll unless you act like one, time will tell.
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Read the explanation
For how it is calculated. And for goodness sake, click reply…
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Oct 27, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so how come
it doesnt jive with the other power rankings i see on line. if it is such a standerized method of calculating power rankings why the desparity?
by mississippisaintsfan on Oct 27, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most other power rankings are opinion-based
This one is based on points for, points against. Far from the end-all, be-all, but a different way to look at say, your ESPN rankings, which are put together by a panel of three or four NFL experts who all offer their rankings and the results are averaged out.
Sign up for a free account today to join the discussion about all things Atlanta Falcons!
by Dave the Falconer on Oct 27, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's not saying his system is the best system
It’s just a new “feature” of sorts, and I personally appreciate the weekly effort. It’s a shame that you come here and bash our posters’ efforts, as it only reflects poorly on your blog and its content (i.e., you’re completely unfamiliar with originality).
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 27, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
For some reason
When people see a big table of data, they often unconsciously expect the results to be exacting, precise and unerring. Even when it’s based on only two stats. Even when there’s a disclaimer that this is a simple algorithm, Fun With Numbers. Even when you specifically use the Saints as an example of how the rating was calculated.
Am I missing something? I don’t know what more one can DO to get some people to actually read, and/or lighten up a little.
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's amazing, no?
I’m pretty sure that if one were so inclined they would clearly see that wins and losses have no bearing on the final outcome. It never ceases to amaze me the complete lazziness of people at times. Why even bother questioning it if you won’t take the simple five minutes to read how the results were derived?
I repeat, thick headed people and nature. My money is on Darwin.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
by Jesse28 on Oct 28, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey tom,
Are we far enough into the season that these results give you some confidence? You’ve said that it has been fairly accurate in past years… Meaning, do you expect the Packers to stick around with the Vikings the whole season? And what should we look for from the Giants/Eagles/Cowboys the rest of the way?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Oct 27, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In years past
the big weekly swings seemed to subside after about 6-7 weeks. This week’s numbers look a good bit less volatile than last, in that respect it’s probably close to as good as it’ll get.
There are a lot of ways to look at accuracy. Statistically, these ratings correlate quite well with winning percentage. Over the last 5 years, the correlation coefficient is .899 (.912 last year). Still, that’s not enough to take to the bank (or Vegas).
In terms of “can Team A beat Team B this week”, this algorithm was only a few percentage points less effective than looking at the published Vegas odds during the (second half of the) season I actually tracked the results. Problem is, we all know how reliable the Vegas odds are. Not that great. “Confidence” is a highly relative term here.
I’m not sure it’s wise for me to go out on a limb making predictions based on any mathematical formula, no matter how complex. I’ve never seen any kind of football algorithm that I’d stake my reputation on, and I’ve tried some doozies. I do like the way this algorithm rewards teams with a “balanced” O & D, but the years have taught me that you can only read so much into a bunch of numbers.
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool
I didn’t know if the over-abundance of truly awful teams (STL, TB, CLE, KC, and others) this year could be throwing off the ratings for the teams that have already played them.
Green Bay’s into the Top 5 DVOA at Football Outsiders, too (also ahead of the Vikings). They were my biggest surprise here (well, there too) this week. Seems like it’s going to be the two of them fighting for the North. (The Bears sure fell off a cliff, huh?)
NFCE looks to be a 3-way fight to the death. I’m just keeping an extra close eye on teams that might hang around as possible Wild Card competition.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by orang3b on Oct 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I was wondering why there are 19 teams rated >50. Last year week 7 there were 18, before that it was pretty even. That’s as good an explanation as I’ve heard, and it makes intuitive sense.
DVOA is one of the best ‘alternative’ metrics out there, similar concept to baseball Sabremetrics. Green Bay is kind of a sentimental favorite for me, never cared for the Vikings. Agreed you have to figure NFCE will have at least one wild card.
by tom slick on Oct 28, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To Tom Slick
“You’re not a troll unless you act like one, time will tell.”
You’ve got a comma splice there, so you should really quit calling out punctuation errors as insults. This is from a Saints fan too.
by AJG on Oct 27, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Read, think, understand.
My post merely noted the fact that both the poster and the troll didn’t use punctuation. I didn’t pass judgment on the lack of punctuation. If you’d like to keep thinking otherwise, be my guest.
by tom slick on Oct 27, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope your entire O-Line falls down a well! A smelly, parasite-filled, icky well!
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 27, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you
it seems i cant comment here without being called a troll
by mississippisaintsfan on Oct 28, 2009 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's innocent! Innocent they say!
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 28, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you started off on the wrong foot
making a statement after obviously NOT reading anything about the way the ratings were determined other than just looking for your precious saints on the list. Your first comment was blatant and obnoxious. Had you not come barging in sounding like an idiot, you wouldn’t be getting treated as if you were a troll.
Honestly, for the most part, we are a welcoming bunch. Just remember, you are at the Falcoholic, not ESPN or NFL.com. We pride ourselves on intelligent and meaningful conversation.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
by MentallyMIA on Oct 29, 2009 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your full
of shit you dont have a clue what your talking about
by mississippisaintsfan on Oct 31, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What mississippisanitsfan meant to say was,
“Oh yea? So’s your old man!”
Dave the Falconer taught me that one! Thanks, Dave.
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 1, 2009 6:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your opinion would carry at least some weight
if you expressed it like a literate, thinking person. Hurling childish insults while ignoring basic grammar, spelling and punctuation is no way to make a positive impression. All it does is make you look uneducated and foolish.
You’re hanging yourself with your own rope. Do everyone a favor and leave with what little dignity you have remaining.
by tom slick on Nov 1, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Read the ENTIRE comment:
Dave the Falconer taught me that one (one of your guys, I believe?).
Don’t shoot the messenger. :-)
Jeeeez, you’re starting to sound like Jesse28!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 1, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't replying to you, my friend
I was replying to mississippisaintsfan. In fact, I rather enjoy your comments. Sorry if I contributed to any misunderstanding.
by tom slick on Nov 1, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Spoken like a true Southern Gentleman
Apology accepted and dueling pistols put away.
I see, now, where I misread the indentation on your reply. My embarassment knows no bounds. I may have to get ’em out again and challenge myself to a duel; for the sake of honor, of course!!!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 1, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense taken
Speaking as one who has Professor Frink eyeglasses AND glaucoma, I know how easy it is to do that. My eyes go all Jack Elam on me with disturbing regularity! Thanks for your reply, you’re an honorable man, suh.
Good luck with that duel! Hope it works out for you both… :)
by tom slick on Nov 1, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh please do.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
by Jesse28 on Nov 2, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Football
I’m just hoping this thread can stick to football, instead of minor, unrelated little insults that clog up internet chat rooms. Troll? Really? The only troll I want to be talking about is Aaron Stecker, for signing with the Dirty Birds.
by AJG on Oct 28, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Which in itself forgets he was once a Buc
If he signed with the Panthers, he’d catch ’em all.
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by Dave the Falconer on Oct 28, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's funny that you mention Stecker
… and I noticed that a general disgust with the man has been a prominent theme in recent days on the SB nation Saints blog (in particular because he signed with us).
Now, maybe we’ll glean no valuable info from the guy, but maybe we will. Heck, I’m not beyond making that move, and I doubt any Saints fans would object if y’all picked up Hartsock after we cut him or Thomas Brown after we cut him.
I understand it sucks to see a former player in another team’s colors, but hate the “playa,” DON’T hate “the game” (read: we’re not ignorant dummies for signing him) …
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said, FrankyWren
However, in the world of “Spy vs. Spy” could he be a double agent? Getting paid by the Saints, off the books, of course, to spread misinformation? Hmmmmmmm.
Ok, probably not.
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
by Just 'Nother Day on Oct 28, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you don't think
the delay in my reply is because I was looking up Moe Berg (March 2, 1902 – May 29, 1972) on Wikipedia. Of course, I must admit, I initially I though you were referring to one of the Stooges!
You continue to amaze!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 1, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was somewhat off topic
but whenever I hear ‘spy’ and ‘ball player’ mentioned together, I think of Moe Berg. What an interesting life he lived! Did you notice this part of the Wikipedia article:
“Berg received many requests to write his memoirs, but turned them down; he almost wrote them in 1960, but he quit after the co-writer assigned to him confused him with Moe Howard of the Three Stooges.”
Cheers!
by tom slick on Nov 1, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless Stecker brought his playbook
I’m skeptical the Falcons will mine much useful intelligence from him. IMHO he was just the best warm body out there. Stecker’s just earning a buck.
by tom slick on Oct 28, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tom, love your work
I stumbled across your rankings in the run-up to our game on Sunday. I like the methodology, and have taken the liberty of including your rankings in my weekly summary of power rankings over at Blogging The Boys.
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 28, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
Appreciate your kind words, feel free to use the numbers. I’m not sure my simple algorithm belongs with such exalted company, but it IS kind of cool to see Professor Frink ratings up there alongside the big boys! Much obliged for the heads-up. Best wishes to you, sir!
by tom slick on Oct 28, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
week 6 was linked
instead of week 7. might cause some confusion.
Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don't like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that. - Bill Shankly
by armchair quarterback on Oct 28, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Noticed that
On the chart it says “Professor Fink” too! In a rare moment of politeness, I figured I’d wait a week or so before saying anything to my new bestest pal. Don’t want to press my luck!
by tom slick on Oct 28, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooops
Here’s the link to the latest rankings
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 29, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap tom slick, you're famous!
Reporter: How will you address all of the dropped passes?
Mike Smith: I don’t think that we were as sharp as we have been catching the football. It’s something that is very fixable. It’s VERY fixable.
by FrankyWren on Oct 28, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No autographs, please!
At long last, my stepping stone to World Domination…
by tom slick on Oct 28, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stecker is a fill in till Jerious gets better...
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Oct 29, 2009 6:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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